Investors / stance tracking
What François Rochon is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowPresident & Portfolio Manager, Giverny Capital
37 dated public stances tracked since 2016-11-25, most recently 2026-03-19. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of François Rochon's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. François Rochon is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
37
tracked stances
20
themes
1
side flips
2026-03-19
last heard
Returns 90d +1.9% 60% correct · 25 calls · 180d +1.7% 56% correct · 25 calls · 1y +4.7% 58% correct · 12 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | SPX | bearish | -12.6% | -15.4% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | META | bullish | -6.4% | +10.6% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | KNSL | bullish | -5.3% | +13.2% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | GOOGL | bullish | +18.5% | +12.5% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | BRO | bullish | -11.0% | +1.5% | — |
| 2026-01-13 | long FIVE / short DOL | pair | +1.5% | -7.6% | — |
| 2026-01-13 | KMX | bullish | +5.7% | +18.1% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | V | bullish | -1.7% | +0.4% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | RMD | bullish | +4.8% | -17.1% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | META | bullish | +6.3% | +2.2% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | GOOGL | bullish | +6.0% | +39.4% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | DOL | bullish | +15.8% | +16.2% | — |
| 2025-11-16 | BRO | owns | -14.5% | -29.9% | — |
| 2025-10-26 | SPX | bearish | -1.4% | -4.8% | -12.9% |
| 2025-10-26 | PGR | bullish | +2.1% | -1.3% | +12.7% |
| 2025-10-26 | LULU | bullish | +6.3% | -20.7% | -43.3% |
| 2025-10-26 | COST | bullish | +5.3% | +9.0% | +8.7% |
| 2025-10-26 | BKNG | bullish | -2.6% | -13.9% | -26.5% |
| 2024-12-22 | PGR | bullish | +15.9% | +10.8% | -3.7% |
| 2024-12-22 | META | bullish | +3.3% | +13.9% | +10.6% |
| 2024-12-22 | GOOGL | bullish | -13.7% | -14.2% | +59.8% |
| 2024-12-22 | DOL | bullish | +13.4% | +20.1% | +36.5% |
| 2024-12-22 | BITCOIN | bearish | +11.9% | -8.6% | +6.9% |
| 2023-02-04 | SPX | bullish | +1.1% | +10.3% | +22.0% |
| 2022-11-12 | KMX | bullish | -0.5% | -2.3% | -14.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-03-19 | |
| CSU | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-03-19 | |
| KMX | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-01-13 | |
| META | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-03-19 | |
| SPX | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-03-19 | |
| BRO | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-03-19 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-03-19
CSU
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
AI disruption fears have compressed Constellation Software to ~18x earnings despite ~20% annual earnings growth, the business model is largely insulated because proprietary client data and mission-critical money-handling software cannot be replaced by LLMs…
“if we're right about the assessment that the business is intact, I do believe that the stock is cheap”
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
2026-03-19
BRO
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Brown & Brown has sold off on AI fears and a soft insurance pricing cycle, but business quality and management are unchanged; Rochon views the de-rating to ~16x earnings as a meaningfully better entry than the prior 20-25x multiple for the same compounding…
“probably it's better to buy it at 16 times earnings than 20 or 25 times”
90d -11.0% · 180d +1.5%
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
Meta has extracted more ROI from AI than any company Rochon follows — AI-driven ad targeting enabled higher ad prices after Apple's privacy changes destroyed 10% of revenue — and its free social platforms give it an unmatched advertiser-funded moat
“Meta is probably the company that has got the best return of investing in AI than all the companies I've been following”
90d -6.4% · 180d +10.6%
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
Alphabet's free-to-user, advertiser-funded model creates an unmatched switching-cost moat, and its $180B annual CapEx is funded entirely from internal cash flow so even a low return on AI investment does not impair the company — the spend is primarily…
“you have no incentive to use another product because everyone's there and it's free”
90d +18.5% · 180d +12.5%
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
2026-03-19
LVMH
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Core brand equity (Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, Sephora) is intact; current earnings are doubly depressed by a post-pandemic luxury demand pause and a temporary French corporate tax-rate hike from 28% to 33%; Rochon models 60-70% earnings recovery over five years…
“from today's depressed earnings… earnings could increase 60 or 70% in the next 5 years”
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
At 25x trailing P/E — 40% above the historical median of 18x — S&P 500 forward returns over the next 5-10 years are likely to disappoint as mega-cap growth rates decelerate with size and the multiple mean-reverts toward historical norms, even without an…
“I would keep my expectation low for the S&P 500 for the next 5 or 10 years”
90d -12.6% · 180d -15.4%
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
Kinsale's fully integrated software stack gives it a structural underwriting cost advantage over competitors running fragmented systems, enabling superior loss ratios and higher ROE; with <2% E&S market share the runway mirrors early Progressive, and the…
“Kinsale's an outstanding insurer… not that long ago the stock was trading in the high 20s and today it's what, 17 times”
90d -5.3% · 180d +13.2%
Navigating an AI-Driven Market w/ François Rochon | Constellation Software, Kinsale Capital, & LVMH
2026-01-13
long FIVE / short DOL
pair
Francois Rochon · video
Five Below and Dollarama trade at similar P/E ratios but Five Below should grow earnings much faster over the next five years, making the switch favorable on a growth-adjusted basis
“I believe that five below will grow much faster in the years to come than Dorama”
90d +1.5% · 180d -7.6%
The "Podium of Errors" of Investing Legend François Rochon
CarMax at ~$67 has a credible path to $12 EPS by 2027–2028 implying a potential triple, with a unique 4% used-car market share moat; near-term cyclical weakness does not impair long-term intrinsic value
“at 67, if I'm right on that $12 a share…this is a stock that could triple in value at least”
90d +5.7% · 180d +18.1%
The "Podium of Errors" of Investing Legend François Rochon
Visa earns a royalty on ~60% of global credit and debit transactions, giving it a durable toll-road moat with 14-15% annual earnings growth at a reasonable valuation
“the ideal business is the one that receives a royalty on the growth of others — Visa was a perfect example”
90d -1.7% · 180d +0.4%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
2025-11-16
BRK
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Berkshire's conservative, prudent capital management makes it the go-to holding for surviving any major recession or crisis, even if compounding at scale is harder now
“if you would want to own a company without worrying that if there's a big recession or big crisis, you know they'll make it”
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
2025-11-16
BRO
owns
Francois Rochon · video
Brown & Brown's management executed well through a period of slower earnings growth, and Rochon repurchased shares at an acceptable price after a 14-year absence when the long-term thesis re-emerged
“the management did a great job. And so we decided at some point when the price seemed okay, we decided to buy back shares”
90d -14.5% · 180d -29.9%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
ResMed's sleep-apnea device business remained fundamentally sound after Rochon sold, justifying a repurchase more than a decade later at a valuation he found acceptable
90d +4.8% · 180d -17.1%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
Meta's free-to-user, advertiser-funded network is nearly impossible to displace at its scale, and trading at ~25x earnings the valuation is not demanding
“I don't see how someone could start a new Facebook or a new Instagram to compete”
90d +6.3% · 180d +2.2%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
Google's advertiser-funded free product creates a self-reinforcing moat that keeps users locked in, and Gemini is a credible AI competitor; the stock trades at ~25x earnings which Rochon views as rational
“their business model and their moat has stayed intact even with the changing of the last few years”
90d +6.0% · 180d +39.4%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
2025-11-16
DOL
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Dollarama is an extraordinarily well-managed Canadian dollar-store chain with a proven domestic model now expanding into South America, giving it a long runway for growth
“Dollarama is an extraordinarily well-managed retail chain... strong in Canada but they're starting to be strong in South America also”
90d +15.8% · 180d +16.2%
The Art of Investing with Giverny Capital Founder François Rochon
Progressive is one of the best insurance companies in the world, trading at only 14-15x earnings while continuing to grow earnings per share at 12-14% annually, offering a non-glamorous but high-quality compounder at a reasonable valuation with strong margin…
“Progressive, I think it's one of the best insurance companies in the known world”
90d +2.1% · 180d -1.3% · 1y +12.7%
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
Said again: 2025-11-16 (Francois Rochon)
The SNP 500 is trading at 24-25x forward earnings versus a historical average of 16-17x, creating a valuation gap that makes future returns harder to justify and warrants a more pessimistic outlook relative to prior decades
“there is still a gap that has widened. Will it eventually be available for reservation?”
90d -1.4% · 180d -4.8% · 1y -12.9%
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
Costco is a fabulous business meeting all quality criteria but trades at 50x earnings, eliminating the margin of safety Ben Graham considered essential, such that even a 25-30% decline would leave it still expensive and unworthy of purchase
“even though I would like to own it and it meets all the other criteria, I don't meet the last one”
90d +5.3% · 180d +9.0% · 1y +8.7%
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
Lululemon's US revenue growth has stalled while brand quality and international growth remain intact, making the 50% price decline likely an overreaction to what are probably temporary domestic macro headwinds, though deteriorating fundamentals prevent adding…
“I think the problems the company is experiencing are, in my opinion, probably temporary”
90d +6.3% · 180d -20.7% · 1y -43.3%
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
2025-10-26
MC
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
LVMH's core brands (Louis Vuitton, Tiffany, Sephora) remain fundamentally intact and the current ~20-21x earnings valuation is reasonable, with near-term weakness driven by temporary consumer inflation stress and China softness that should normalize over a…
“I would have the patience to keep the title and I think over 5 years, he will do well”
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
Booking Holdings converts moderate revenue growth into 13-14% EPS growth through aggressive share buybacks (repurchasing ~5% of shares annually), demonstrating the capital allocation quality Rochon requires for long-term compounding
“the 8-9% becomes 13-14% because of the share buybacks”
90d -2.6% · 180d -13.9% · 1y -26.5%
François Rochon: A Proven Long-Term Approach
2024-12-22
CSU
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Constellation Software has the best capital-allocating CEO Rochon has seen in a decade — Mark Leonard takes no salary, no stock options, owns a large stake personally, and the share count has remained flat since inception, fully aligning management with…
“Mark Leonard is probably the closest to the greatest manager I've seen, at least in the last 10 years”
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
Progressive's new management team revived growth by brilliantly bundling auto and home insurance into a single household product, rekindling earnings momentum that justified repurchasing the stock 14 years after selling it
“they had the brilliant idea of combining car and home insurance — it's been a very very strong company”
90d +15.9% · 180d +10.8% · 1y -3.7%
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
Meta has captured the most revenue benefit from AI investments among any large-cap, through dramatically improved ad targeting that has visibly lifted financial results
“it's probably the company that has made most of it in terms of improving their revenues and better targeting their ads”
90d +3.3% · 180d +13.9% · 1y +10.6%
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
Alphabet was the most reasonably valued of the Magnificent 7, has been a portfolio holding since 2011, and continues to benefit from AI-driven product improvements
“being educated as a value investor it's very hard to stretch yourself at paying PEs in the 30s and 40s — meta and alphabet still made sense”
90d -13.7% · 180d -14.2% · 1y +59.8%
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
2024-12-22
DOL
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Dollarama is a world-class retailer used as a benchmark by international competitors, with outstanding founding management, and Rochon considers trimming it the biggest portfolio mistake he has made
“this is not only a great Canadian company — that's a worldwide leader model to many other retailers”
90d +13.4% · 180d +20.1% · 1y +36.5%
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
Bitcoin is speculative excess analogous to tulip mania — with $1–2 trillion deployed into an asset that produces no earnings, political pumping by Trump inflating prices artificially, and the inevitable unwind likely to leave holders substantially poorer
“the return of Bitcoin this year is going to leave a lot of people poorer at some point — I think that's probably where there is more excess”
90d +11.9% · 180d -8.6% · 1y +6.9%
A Conversation with Francois Rochon (Giverny Capital) | Capital Compounders Show (EP #22)
2023-02-27
CSU
bullish
Francois Rochon · video
Constellation Software earns a permanent hold because Mark Leonard is an extraordinary capital allocator and human being whose owner-oriented annual letters and acquisition track record signal he can be trusted with capital indefinitely
“I read the annual report of Constellation Software written by Mark Leonard — that was love at first sight”
How to BEAT the Market | Joel Tillinghast & Uncovering the Art of Outperformance (TIP529)
Corporate earnings grow 6-7% annually plus roughly 2% dividend yield produces an 8-9% annual return, doubling S&P 500 earnings every decade and making full recovery from any major drawdown virtually certain within 5-7 years
“companies grow their earnings six seven percent yearly...that's a eight or nine percent return for stock”
90d +1.1% · 180d +10.3% · 1y +22.0%
Investing In Uncertain Times w/ Joel Greenblatt, Bill Miller, Howard Marks, François Rochon (RWH021)
2022-11-12
long FIVE / short DOLLARAMA
pair
Francois Rochon · video
Five Below will compound intrinsic value significantly faster than Dollarama over the next five years, yet both trade at similar P/E multiples — selling the slower-growth name to fund the faster-growth one at a 35–40% drawdown is a portfolio upgrade
“over five years Five Below will do better so we just sold one that looked a little less attractive”
The Art Of Investing w/ François Rochon (RWH016)
At ~$67 with depressed cyclical earnings, CarMax can reach $12/share EPS by 2027–2028, implying a potential triple from current price; intrinsic value has not declined 50% despite the stock doing so
“within five or six years the company can earn twelve dollars a share so at 67...this is a start that could triple in value”
90d -0.5% · 180d -2.3% · 1y -14.0%
The Art Of Investing w/ François Rochon (RWH016)
CarMax can compound EPS ~15% annually via ~10% revenue growth plus margin expansion and buybacks, yet trades at only ~18x earnings—market multiple for twice the market's growth profile
“I believe can grow by about 15% annually for many many years...PE ratio is similar than the market but that growth profile is probably twice as good”
The Art of Investing | François Rochon | Talks at Google
Visa's moat is nearly impregnable—hard to identify any competitive threat—and the company has a very long visible growth runway that warrants a premium valuation
“you can see the company having their moat protected for many many years and it's hard to figure out who could hurt them”
The Art of Investing | François Rochon | Talks at Google
Disney's IP portfolio (Marvel, Star Wars, legacy characters) acts like an oil field that refills—franchises can be re-monetized every few decades with minimal incremental capital, and Disney 'owns its stars' with no agent fees
“owning an oil field where you take all the oil and fifty years later you go out to the field and there's even more new oil”
The Art of Investing | François Rochon | Talks at Google
Google has a larger and more entrenched expanding moat than Apple, with more stable and recurring revenues, justifying a premium multiple over Apple's 15x
“Google business is more stable and more entrenched and more recurring and the thing demote is larger in Google and Apple”
The Art of Investing | François Rochon | Talks at Google
Net interest margins normalising toward 4%+ (from near-zero) implies ~33% incremental profit growth, compounded by post-election deregulation lifting the compliance burden on large American banks
“years of profit growth are ahead for these banks”
Les marchés à des sommets: le temps de se retirer de la Bourse?
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click