Investors / stance tracking
What Felix Jauvin is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks)
Media
87 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-02, most recently 2026-10-31. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Felix Jauvin's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Felix Jauvin is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
87
tracked stances
36
themes
19
side flips
2026-10-31
last heard
Returns 90d +1.8% 44% correct · 59 calls · 180d +4.9% 48% correct · 52 calls · 1y +6.2% 51% correct · 47 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS | spread | -0.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | Big Tech | bearish | -4.8% | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | long GOLD / short Big Tech | pair | -1.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | SOFR | bullish | +0.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -8.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | VOL | bullish | -22.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | BITCOIN | bearish | -20.3% | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | USD | bearish | -3.4% | -5.8% | — |
| 2026-04-10 | SPX | bearish | -10.9% | -15.0% | — |
| 2026-04-10 | OIL | bullish | -12.7% | +15.3% | — |
| 2026-04-10 | GOLD | bullish | -13.5% | -14.0% | — |
| 2026-04-10 | China Equities | bullish | -7.1% | -7.1% | — |
| 2025-10-10 | USD | bullish | +1.1% | +2.1% | +8.0% |
| 2025-09-19 | IWM | bullish | +2.7% | +1.8% | +18.7% |
| 2025-09-05 | long GOLD / short GOLD | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | NVDA | bearish | -9.8% | -9.6% | -35.3% |
| 2025-09-05 | BITCOIN | bearish | +16.8% | +34.3% | +27.9% |
| 2025-09-05 | Big Tech | bearish | -8.3% | -6.3% | -25.3% |
| 2025-08-29 | GOLD | bullish | +21.9% | +48.8% | +28.4% |
| 2025-08-21 | short USTS / short USTS | other | -2.4% | -4.0% | -1.3% |
| 2025-08-21 | BITCOIN | bullish | -18.7% | -40.0% | -30.3% |
| 2025-08-21 | BANKS | bearish | +2.5% | -14.2% | -21.4% |
| 2025-08-10 | USTS | bearish | -2.2% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| 2025-07-27 | USD | bearish | -1.4% | -1.2% | -7.6% |
| 2025-07-26 | COPPER | bullish | -9.2% | +2.5% | +11.4% |
| 2025-07-04 | long GOLD / long BITCOIN | basket | +13.6% | +5.0% | -8.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | SPX | bullish | +7.7% | +12.0% | +22.2% |
| 2025-06-16 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -6.7% | -4.5% | -5.5% |
| 2025-05-25 | long BITCOIN / long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries | ratio | +1.7% | -1.9% | +1.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | International Dev | bullish | +7.4% | +10.9% | +33.1% |
| 2025-05-23 | GOLD | bullish | -0.8% | +21.1% | +33.7% |
| 2025-05-09 | GOLD | bearish | -2.0% | -19.4% | -41.7% |
| 2025-04-25 | long USTS / short USTS | other | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-14 | HOOD | owns | +126.5% | +218.7% | +79.2% |
| 2025-04-14 | BITCOIN | bullish | +40.8% | +31.0% | -12.3% |
| 2025-03-21 | short Big Tech / long BITCOIN | pair | +7.4% | +7.8% | -20.5% |
| 2025-03-21 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -3.6% | +1.6% | -0.5% |
| 2025-03-14 | USD | bearish | +4.5% | +3.4% | -1.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | Em Equities | bullish | +7.4% | +16.7% | +34.1% |
| 2025-03-14 | BITCOIN | bearish | -25.9% | -35.6% | +15.3% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 59 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Ai Infra — bullish2026-10-16 → bearish2026-10-31
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-06-26 → bearish2026-09-11
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-06-16 → bullish2026-06-26
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 flips.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 11 | 5 bullish / 5 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-31 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 6 | 2 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-09-11 | |
| USD | 6 | 1 bullish / 5 bearish | 2026-08-20 | |
| Big Tech | 5 | 1 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-07-17 | |
| GOLD | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-27 | |
| OIL | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-10-23 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Gold and Bitcoin rallied for the same macro reasons, gold has now fully retraced to new lows which is an ominous leading signal for Bitcoin; not long anything and the Binance hack prolongs the consolidation period before animal spirits return
“Gold and Bitcoin rallied for largely the same reasons. Gold's now completely retraced and set new lows — could be ominous sign for Bitcoin as well.”
The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup
2026-10-31
Ai Infra
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscaler CapEx is now missing estimates for the first time (MSFT $38B vs $45B, GOOGL $51B vs $55B), the AI investment boom was built on extreme leverage that is unwinding, and as a cyclical commodity cycle these bust phases typically last as long as the…
“This stuff is interesting on pops and to short. I don't think we're at a buying point yet, but we will be at some point.”
The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup
2026-10-23
long OIL / short OIL
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Prefer Brent over WTI because US export-ban risk (already floated for diesel) sustains the WTI discount to the global benchmark, which has widened to wartime highs and is unlikely to compress while geopolitical pressure persists
“I think important to have your oil exposure offshore”
The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup
Steep Brent backwardation (~$12-13/bbl, front month ~$112 vs March 2027 ~$101) generates built-in positive roll yield for long futures investors: flat prices = collect the spread, higher prices = spread plus appreciation, lower prices to $101 = breakeven —…
“there's this implicit roll yield which is why I think the opportunity here is so so interesting”
The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup
2026-10-16
Ai Infra
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The administration will ensure AI infrastructure debt is money good because these companies sit on critical assets hyperscalers need, but that backstop does not protect equity holders who are below in the capital stack and will be diluted
“it feels like there's decent value there in the debt... you've got to understand where you are in the capital stack”
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Nominal GDP running at 6.6% implies regression-based fair value for the 10-year yield near 5.8%, well above current levels, and Bessant's $6B buybacks are insufficient ammo to sustainably suppress yields against a market demanding more
“fair value of the 10-year is somewhere around 5.8% right now roughly speaking”
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-11
SEMICONDUCTOR / AI TRADE
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Hundreds of billions in 3x-leveraged ETF exposure and heavily levered funds require an extended washout period of six to twelve months before the semiconductor trade can develop new leadership, making it dead money despite any relief rallies
“once that stuff gets to the main page and then rinses out, that's usually an area you don't want to go near”
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
Treasury yield suppression and fiscal deficit expansion debase fiat currency, making gold a win regardless of yield direction — if yields rise intervention accelerates, if yields fall debasement worsens
“I'm still extremely comfortable in my debasement trades of gold and Bitcoin”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-09-11 (Forward Guidance)
Fiscal debasement via bond buybacks and TGA deployment creates a monetary environment where hard-capped assets like Bitcoin outperform fiat regardless of whether yields rise or fall
“I'm still extremely comfortable in my debasement trades of gold and Bitcoin”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20
HEALTHCARE INNOVATION / AI-DRIVEN BIOTECH
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
AI is accelerating drug discovery breakthroughs (MRNA cancer trial up 150%, Eli Lilly pipeline) representing a powerful expression of AI adoption in a sector that also functions as a defensive rotation out of semis and outperforms in a down-tech tape
“the healthcare innovation sector is also...really powerful expression of AI adoption — what they're up to is incredible”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Treasury's buyback expansion is explicit dollar debasement; foreign holders of US assets lose purchasing power on FX and may rotate capital out, reinforcing dollar weakness
“precious metals, gold, Bitcoin, etc., short dollar, maybe”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20
NEO-CLOUD / ALTERNATIVE COMPUTE PROVIDERS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The shift to multi-agent AI orchestration (e.g. Grok multi-agent) creates a nonlinear step-up in compute demand beyond single-chat and simple agentic use cases, driving a new compute shortage that benefits neo-cloud providers; suppressed long-end yields also…
“the Neo clouds actually really interesting right now — there's a compute shortage and the compute demands for multi-agent orchestration are another leg of nonlinearity”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-31
short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS
spread
Forward Guidance · video
Fed balance sheet has been artificially suppressing long-end yields while the front end is near appropriate levels given inflation; Warsh's strategy of removing balance sheet accommodation will let the 30-year reprice 50-100bps higher, significantly…
“it's the back end that's way too low... the yield curve steepens another 100 bips with the long end going to five, five and a half, six”
90d -0.5%
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscalers are already negative free cash flow and levering up while credit spreads widen and a large equity issuance supply overhang builds (Anthropic IPO, SpaceX unlocks), and open-source model cost deflation threatens to eliminate the CapEx…
“their cost of capital cost of financing is rising, their spreads are widening”
90d -4.8%
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17
REAL ESTATE IN MIGRATION-BENEFICIARY MARKETS (TEXAS, FLORIDA)
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Property rights erosion, over-regulation, and fiscal deterioration in high-cost blue states is structurally accelerating migration to business-friendly markets, with COVID-era flows being only the training wheels for what will be a larger multi-year…
“I'm unbelievably bullish on real estate in the right places”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03
long GOLD / short Big Tech
pair
Forward Guidance · video
As economic growth and inflation both slow, the debasement trade (gold, Bitcoin) outperforms AI/tech because fiscal deficits and debt monetization are secular while AI CapEx assumptions are now cracking
“you're going to want the debasement stuff back versus the AI bottleneck stuff”
90d -1.3%
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03
SOFR
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Wage growth is categorically weaker than 2021, labor force participation is falling not rising, and inflation is rolling over — leaving no fundamental basis for Fed hikes so front-end hawkishness premium should compress
90d +0.8%
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-26
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Peak inflation and peak growth are being traversed for the year, fiscal impulse wanes in H2, and the Fed is unlikely to hike before the election, so the long end is correctly pricing in lower nominal growth and rates will continue drifting lower
“I continue to stand by my view that we are traversing peak inflation and peak growth probably for the year”
90d -8.0%
Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup
Warsh's elimination of Fed forward guidance removes the mechanism Bernanke invented specifically to suppress rate volatility at the zero lower bound, meaning secularly higher rate vol is the durable regime shift
“I think secularly like rate volatility is going to go higher from here”
90d -22.3%
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-07-17 (Forward Guidance)
The AI capex boom has created real, measurable productivity returns that compete directly with Bitcoin's store-of-value thesis, making the opportunity cost of holding BTC too high in the current environment where capital has abundant productive alternatives
“the opportunity cost is too high right now”
90d -20.3%
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
2026-05-15
long OIL PRODUCERS / long AI / SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
other
Forward Guidance · video
Barbell between oil producers as an inflation hedge and AI/semiconductor stocks as a growth bet captures both the inflationary commodity regime and the AI capex flywheel without having to time when the punch bowl is removed
“I own the oil producers, but I'm also gambling in the chips, so barbell it”
The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup
Bessant is actively suppressing bond yields via plunge-protection-style swap lines, gold resurfaces every time yields are pushed down, and petrodollar erosion from Hormuz disruption structurally reduces dollar demand — making gold the required debasement hedge
“you have to have a debasement hedge. Like you just have to because at the end of the day, they will try everything”
90d -13.5% · 180d -14.0%
Said again: 2026-07-03 (Forward Guidance)
Ceasefire is largely fake (Strait still closed), positioning rinse is complete, inflation is re-accelerating, liquidity is poor, and risk/reward is extremely negative with prices near all-time highs
“the fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs”
90d -10.9% · 180d -15.0%
The dollar barely rallied during a scenario — Strait of Hormuz closed and oil near doubled — where it should have surged as Europe and Japan were crushed by energy costs; if that was the maximum the dollar could muster in a doomsday scenario for energy…
“if that's all we could muster through the doomsday scenario of the street… it's just telling you something”
90d -3.4% · 180d -5.8%
2026-04-10
China Equities
bullish
video
Rest-of-world positioning was completely rinsed from January to February as everyone sold America, and if the dollar weakens structurally (as the Hormuz episode suggests), the same 'sell America / buy LatAm-China' trade that was crowded is now set up…
“anywhere but US kind of seems to be like I think you want to just go right back to that well”
90d -7.1% · 180d -7.1%
Oil futures are pricing the Strait disruption as over immediately, creating a mispricing in the back of the curve as the market ignores the lingering geopolitical risk and ongoing supply constraint
90d -12.7% · 180d +15.3%
2026-04-10
AI COMPUTE SUPPLIERS / CHIP SELLERS TO HYPER SCALERS
bullish
video
Compute is a national imperative and someone will fund it, but owning the hyper scalers means taking on their balance sheet and private credit risk; owning the companies selling to them (chip makers, infrastructure) captures the same demand signal without the…
“I don't want to be exposed to the people buying it. I want to own the people that are selling it.”
Speculative positioning is max short USD (contrarian signal), while economic divergence and yield differentials favor the dollar over Europe, pointing to EUR/USD resuming its downtrend
“this is Euro dollar, and I think this thing's coming right back down”
90d +1.1% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +8.0%
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup
Fed rate cuts reduce the cost of capital that had concentrated flows into mega-cap tech; enormous short interest in Russell futures is now covering as small caps break out and lead equities higher, confirmed by Thursday post-Fed price action as the real signal
“small caps are leading the charge. Like, it's it's game on in my mind”
90d +2.7% · 180d +1.8% · 1y +18.7%
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-05
long GOLD / short GOLD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Prefer physical gold over gold miners because miners carry equity beta that can drag the position in a broad risk-off or margin-call event, removing the clean debasement/negative-real-rate thesis
“I like gold a lot better than gold miners here just because you remove that equity beta from it”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-05
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Indices are at stretched valuation levels with MAG7 comprising 40% of the index weight, making it irrational to buy given a deteriorating labor market, stagflation risk, and no liquidity impulse to justify multiples
“I think crazy to buy the indices here at these valuation levels where MAG 7 make up 40% of the index”
90d -8.3% · 180d -6.3% · 1y -25.3%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
The only two options in this environment are risk-off gold or risk-on crypto and liquidity assets, and the current stagflationary, growth-scare backdrop with no liquidity impulse makes the risk-on crypto trade the wrong side right now
“complete risk off gold or it's complete risk on... liquidity assets. There's no in between... I don't think it's the latter right now”
90d +16.8% · 180d +34.3% · 1y +27.9%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
Nvidia is set for a sharp decline as the largest MAG7 weight in an overvalued index faces a risk-off environment with no liquidity catalyst to support the multiple
“Nvidia looks like it's going to absolutely puke”
90d -9.8% · 180d -9.6% · 1y -35.3%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-09-19 (Forward Guidance)
Capital outflows combined with Fed independence concerns and potential policy error from a September rate cut are catalyzing a meaningful breakout in gold toward all-time highs
“Gold looks like it's about to meaningfully break out to all-time highs”
90d +21.9% · 180d +48.8% · 1y +28.4%
The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-09-05 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-07 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-26 (Forward Guidance), 2025-10-24 (Forward Guidance)
2025-08-21
short USTS / short USTS
other
Forward Guidance · video
Shorting both 2-year and 30-year Treasuries simultaneously creates a win-win around Jackson Hole: a hawkish Powell blows out the 2s while the 30s only rally marginally, and a dovish Powell leaves 2s flat while the 30s sell off sharply
“it sort of feels like a win-win there”
90d -2.4% · 180d -4.0% · 1y -1.3%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
Bitcoin's digital gold properties make it a superior asset in a nominal-growth-via-inflation regime compared to high-multiple equities like Mag7, which face multiple compression as real rates are suppressed and purchasing power is eroded
“I think Bitcoin has digital gold properties that benefits it more than a lot of other things even Mag7”
90d -18.7% · 180d -40.0% · 1y -30.3%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-09-26 (Forward Guidance)
TGA refill will hit bank reserves for the first time in 4-5 years forcing credit contraction, rising long-end yields erode bank asset portfolios via unrealized losses, and credit spreads are set to widen from historically tight levels — regional banks are the…
“regional banks might be even the best short in the financials”
90d +2.5% · 180d -14.2% · 1y -21.4%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-10
short Big Tech / long SMALL CAPS / EQUAL WEIGHT / REAL ECONOMY
pair
Forward Guidance · video
If tariffs are struck down, the deficit blowout reaccelerates the core economy and reverses NASDAQ's insane outperformance vs small caps and equal weight, which were penalized most by the regressive tariff burden
What if the U.S. is Forced to REIMBURSE Tariffs?
A tariff reversal forces ~$100B in reimbursements plus eliminates ~$400B in annual revenue, blowing out the deficit well beyond CBO projections and driving yields higher as the bond market reprices the fiscal deterioration
“my gut would say yields up”
90d -2.2% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -1.0%
What if the U.S. is Forced to REIMBURSE Tariffs?
Said again: 2025-08-21 (Forward Guidance)
Dollar is undergoing the same regime shift gold experienced post-Russia-Ukraine — the correlation to rate differentials has permanently broken since Liberation Day as global capital repositions away from US assets, making the secular devaluation trade…
“the devaluation trade and trend is strong still and it's obvious where we end up”
90d -1.4% · 180d -1.2% · 1y -7.6%
Liberation Day Broke The Dollar
2025-07-26
5-YEAR INFLATION BREAK-EVENS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Break-evens are rising even as oil is flat/falling, signaling markets are slowly pricing in secular Fed independence erosion and a structurally higher inflation regime — the disinflation/deflation narrative is gone
“the play is that that'll go higher”
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
Copper is a cyclical inflation hedge that has not yet priced in the debasement/secular-inflation narrative the way gold has, offering a less-frothy expression of the same macro tailwind
“it's a more cyclical play to inflation...it just doesn't have as much froth in it as gold right now”
90d -9.2% · 180d +2.5% · 1y +11.4%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-04
long GOLD / long BITCOIN
basket
Forward Guidance · video
As the US undergoes EM-ification via currency debasement and every central bank races to the bottom, gold and Bitcoin together are a cleaner real-asset hedge than navigating the complex macro crosscurrents of nominal equity and credit markets
“to me golden bitcoin is just like a much cleaner trade I think”
90d +13.6% · 180d +5.0% · 1y -8.6%
All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-30
ALTCOINS (BROAD)
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
There is no mechanical transmission of the largest marginal capital pool — boomer money market fund rebalancing flows — into altcoins, which also lack any real equity claim or cash flows, meaning the structural free-lunch era of buying any new token for 10x…
“There's just no mechanical move towards that into altcoins”
The Stablecoin Future, Macro Moves & Big Tech Embracing Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap
Boomer wealth locked in 30-year fixed mortgages and termed-out corporate debt is immune to rate hikes, so elevated rates simply drive more interest income into money market funds which then mechanically rebalance into stocks — creating a durable flow-driven…
“This is why equities just keep grinding up higher and higher and higher”
90d +7.7% · 180d +12.0% · 1y +22.2%
The Stablecoin Future, Macro Moves & Big Tech Embracing Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap
2025-06-27
short SPX / long REST OF WORLD EQUITIES
pair
Forward Guidance · video
20 years of US equity outperformance is one-to-one correlated with dollar strength; a secular dollar reversal will flip the regime, making short US assets vs long rest-of-world equities the defining macro trade of the coming cycle
“I want to be short US assets along the rest of the world. It's going to be fantastic for them”
The Fed’s New Mandate Is Financing The Deficit | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-16
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
An incoming ultra-dovish Fed chair will cut rates aggressively by 200bps while the Treasury caps the front end via bill issuance, but the long end will sell off aggressively without a coordinated capping mechanism, making long-duration bonds structurally…
“the long end's going to sell off and yeah, it feels like we're heading towards that direction”
90d -6.7% · 180d -4.5% · 1y -5.5%
$7 Trillion Debt Bomb Forces Rate Cuts by September
2025-06-06
Crypto Other
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A structural supply–demand imbalance in public markets — massive institutional demand for cash-flowing crypto companies against a near-empty IPO supply — is creating a generational entry window into crypto equities, with Circle's 20x-oversubscribed, +200%…
“You're watching this stuff in slow motion happen and it's just time to get on the train”
The Trump–Elon Fallout Proves Nothing Stops The Spending Train | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-06
HYPE
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Hyperliquid is a cash-flowing decentralized exchange with massive revenue, aggressive token buybacks, and no VC overhang — a real business hitting all-time highs while VC-backed governance tokens bleed out, representing the new standard for crypto token design
“HYPE is hitting new all-time highs while the VC back crap is just falling by the wayside”
The Trump–Elon Fallout Proves Nothing Stops The Spending Train | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-25
long BITCOIN / long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Hard assets (Bitcoin and gold) will continue to crush bonds on a generational basis as fiat debasement accelerates from debt-fueled fiscal policy that cannot be reversed politically
“Bitcoin and also gold relative to bonds — this is the generation trade both of these”
90d +1.7% · 180d -1.9% · 1y +1.0%
How Endless Debt Became America's Culture
Gold provides a safe haven through any near-term liquidity fragility event while sharing the same long-term fiscal debasement tailwind as Bitcoin, making it the right hold through a potential frag moment
“I feel okay to risk that frag moment if I'm in gold and Bitcoin”
90d -0.8% · 180d +21.1% · 1y +33.7%
America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-06-14 (Forward Guidance), 2025-06-20 (Forward Guidance)
2025-05-23
International Dev
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Non-US equity markets (e.g. Germany) have far more remaining fiscal capacity — going from 2% to 5% deficit — lower valuations, and a tailwind from global capital repatriation out of dollar assets, making them a cleaner long than the US at 23x multiples
“if I just own Bitcoin and the rest of the world and not own the US, I can isolate away from those risks”
90d +7.4% · 180d +10.9% · 1y +33.1%
America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09
long SMALL-CAP VALUE EQUITIES (DOMESTIC US) / short Big Tech
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Domestic small-cap value stands to benefit from a steeper yield curve, deregulation, and front-end rate cuts while Mag 7 faces headwinds from foreign de-allocation and a stagflationary macro backdrop — the K-shaped economy is reversing its beneficiaries
“small cap value or other things over like these large Mag 7”
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
Gold front-ran global liquidity expectations significantly and now needs to reprice lower as the China deescalation narrative disappoints and those expectations get walked back
“it probably front ran liquidity a fair amount and now has to walk some of that back in its pricing”
90d -2.0% · 180d -19.4% · 1y -41.7%
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02
HOUSING SECTOR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Housing recovery requires meaningfully lower mortgage rates, but yields cannot decline given fiscal deficit dynamics and structural bond supply; construction and jobs tied to housing represent a meaningful pocket of ongoing economic weakness
“how does the housing market recover in a big way when yields can't go down”
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-25
long USTS / short USTS
other
Forward Guidance · video
Fed will eventually cut front-end rates as growth weakens while inflation and fiscal deficits keep long-end yields elevated or rising, extending the curve steepening trend already underway
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
Bitcoin is oversold and due for mean reversion, and its tail scenario upside is a direct bet on Fed QE and dollar debasement from ballooning fiscal deficits
“I'm bullish Bitcoin and crypto on a mean reversion basis”
90d +40.8% · 180d +31.0% · 1y -12.3%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
Said again: 2025-05-09 (Forward Guidance), 2025-05-23 (Forward Guidance), 2025-05-25 (Forward Guidance), 2025-07-04 (Forward Guidance)
Robin Hood is winning crypto retail trading share from Coinbase as regulation opens the market, and Felix bought it at the crash lows as a diversified crypto beneficiary
“one of the biggest things I bought at the lows here in this recent crash was Robin Hood”
90d +126.5% · 180d +218.7% · 1y +79.2%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
2025-03-21
short Big Tech / long BITCOIN
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Capital rotation out of US mega-cap tech back to Europe and China — driven by their fiscal expansions — will compress NASDAQ while the resulting global liquidity impulse lifts Bitcoin, which should decouple from NASDAQ as it matures into a global asset
“short NASDAQ long Bitcoin is interesting for that reason”
90d +7.4% · 180d +7.8% · 1y -20.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Fed is in a hawkish stance and Treasury is aligned on bringing yields down, making bonds the most obvious trade in the current regime
“the most clear trade to me here is longing bonds”
90d -3.6% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -0.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
Showing the 60 most recent of 87 tracked stances.
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