c8alpha
Investors / stance tracking

What Felix Jauvin is saying

Co-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks)

82 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-02, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Felix Jauvin's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Felix Jauvin is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

82
tracked stances
30
themes
12
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns  90d +7.0% (n=80) · 180d +8.3% (n=74) · 1y +11.9% (n=68)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

BITCOIN — bearish2026-06-19 → bullish2026-08-27
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-04-15 → bullish2026-06-26
BITCOIN — bullish2025-09-26 → bearish2026-06-19
VOL — bearish2024-11-23 → bullish2026-06-19
USTS — bullish2024-08-02 → bearish2025-08-10
BITCOIN — bearish2025-03-14 → bullish2025-05-09
Big Tech — bullish2025-02-14 → bearish2025-05-09
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2025-03-21 → bearish2025-04-15
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-03-14 → bullish2025-03-21
Em Equities — bearish2025-02-21 → bullish2025-03-14

Showing the 10 most recent of 12 flips.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
BITCOIN1511 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-27
GOLD88 bullish2026-08-27
Big Tech61 bullish / 5 bearish2026-07-17
Long Dur Treasuries62 bullish / 4 bearish2026-06-26
USD44 bearish2026-08-20
USTS31 bullish / 2 bearish2025-08-21

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-27 GOLD owns Forward Guidance · video
Treasury yield suppression and fiscal deficit expansion debase fiat currency, making gold a win regardless of yield direction — if yields rise intervention accelerates, if yields fall debasement worsens
“I'm still extremely comfortable in my debasement trades of gold and Bitcoin”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-27 BITCOIN owns Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal debasement via bond buybacks and TGA deployment creates a monetary environment where hard-capped assets like Bitcoin outperform fiat regardless of whether yields rise or fall
“I'm still extremely comfortable in my debasement trades of gold and Bitcoin”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 HEALTHCARE INNOVATION / AI-DRIVEN BIOTECH bullish Forward Guidance · video
AI is accelerating drug discovery breakthroughs (MRNA cancer trial up 150%, Eli Lilly pipeline) representing a powerful expression of AI adoption in a sector that also functions as a defensive rotation out of semis and outperforms in a down-tech tape
“the healthcare innovation sector is also...really powerful expression of AI adoption — what they're up to is incredible”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 USD bearish Forward Guidance · video
Treasury's buyback expansion is explicit dollar debasement; foreign holders of US assets lose purchasing power on FX and may rotate capital out, reinforcing dollar weakness
“precious metals, gold, Bitcoin, etc., short dollar, maybe”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 NEO-CLOUD / ALTERNATIVE COMPUTE PROVIDERS bullish Forward Guidance · video
The shift to multi-agent AI orchestration (e.g. Grok multi-agent) creates a nonlinear step-up in compute demand beyond single-chat and simple agentic use cases, driving a new compute shortage that benefits neo-cloud providers; suppressed long-end yields also…
“the Neo clouds actually really interesting right now — there's a compute shortage and the compute demands for multi-agent orchestration are another leg of nonlinearity”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-31 short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS spread Forward Guidance · video
Fed balance sheet has been artificially suppressing long-end yields while the front end is near appropriate levels given inflation; Warsh's strategy of removing balance sheet accommodation will let the 30-year reprice 50-100bps higher, significantly…
“it's the back end that's way too low... the yield curve steepens another 100 bips with the long end going to five, five and a half, six”
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscalers are already negative free cash flow and levering up while credit spreads widen and a large equity issuance supply overhang builds (Anthropic IPO, SpaceX unlocks), and open-source model cost deflation threatens to eliminate the CapEx…
“their cost of capital cost of financing is rising, their spreads are widening”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17 REAL ESTATE IN MIGRATION-BENEFICIARY MARKETS (TEXAS, FLORIDA) bullish Forward Guidance · video
Property rights erosion, over-regulation, and fiscal deterioration in high-cost blue states is structurally accelerating migration to business-friendly markets, with COVID-era flows being only the training wheels for what will be a larger multi-year…
“I'm unbelievably bullish on real estate in the right places”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17 VOL bullish Forward Guidance · video
Cross-asset vol remains historically low despite multiple compounding macro imbalances — BOJ repatriation pressure strengthening yen, Korean retail forced liquidation, Iran oil risk, and AI momentum unwind — making vol structurally cheap relative to the tail…
“I would rather be a buyer than a seller of vol for sure”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Real yields appear to be peaking while the re-acceleration and inflation surge tops out, making gold the clearest expression of fading Fed hawkishness
“I continue to really like gold...real yields are starting to peak out here”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 SOFR bullish Forward Guidance · video
Wage growth is categorically weaker than 2021, labor force participation is falling not rising, and inflation is rolling over — leaving no fundamental basis for Fed hikes so front-end hawkishness premium should compress
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 long GOLD / short Big Tech pair Forward Guidance · video
As economic growth and inflation both slow, the debasement trade (gold, Bitcoin) outperforms AI/tech because fiscal deficits and debt monetization are secular while AI CapEx assumptions are now cracking
“you're going to want the debasement stuff back versus the AI bottleneck stuff”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-26 Long Dur Treasuries bullish Forward Guidance · video
Peak inflation and peak growth are being traversed for the year, fiscal impulse wanes in H2, and the Fed is unlikely to hike before the election, so the long end is correctly pricing in lower nominal growth and rates will continue drifting lower
“I continue to stand by my view that we are traversing peak inflation and peak growth probably for the year”
Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-19 VOL bullish Forward Guidance · video
Warsh's elimination of Fed forward guidance removes the mechanism Bernanke invented specifically to suppress rate volatility at the zero lower bound, meaning secularly higher rate vol is the durable regime shift
“I think secularly like rate volatility is going to go higher from here”
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-19 BITCOIN bearish Forward Guidance · video
The AI capex boom has created real, measurable productivity returns that compete directly with Bitcoin's store-of-value thesis, making the opportunity cost of holding BTC too high in the current environment where capital has abundant productive alternatives
“the opportunity cost is too high right now”
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
2026-05-15 long OIL PRODUCERS / long AI / SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS other Forward Guidance · video
Barbell between oil producers as an inflation hedge and AI/semiconductor stocks as a growth bet captures both the inflationary commodity regime and the AI capex flywheel without having to time when the punch bowl is removed
“I own the oil producers, but I'm also gambling in the chips, so barbell it”
The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup
2026-04-10 SPX bearish video
Ceasefire is largely fake (Strait still closed), positioning rinse is complete, inflation is re-accelerating, liquidity is poor, and risk/reward is extremely negative with prices near all-time highs
“the fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs”
90d -10.9%
2026-04-10 USD bearish video
The dollar barely rallied during a scenario — Strait of Hormuz closed and oil near doubled — where it should have surged as Europe and Japan were crushed by energy costs; if that was the maximum the dollar could muster in a doomsday scenario for energy…
“if that's all we could muster through the doomsday scenario of the street… it's just telling you something”
90d -3.4%
2026-04-10 China Equities bullish video
Rest-of-world positioning was completely rinsed from January to February as everyone sold America, and if the dollar weakens structurally (as the Hormuz episode suggests), the same 'sell America / buy LatAm-China' trade that was crowded is now set up…
“anywhere but US kind of seems to be like I think you want to just go right back to that well”
90d -7.1%
2026-04-10 OIL bullish video
Oil futures are pricing the Strait disruption as over immediately, creating a mispricing in the back of the curve as the market ignores the lingering geopolitical risk and ongoing supply constraint
90d -12.7%
2026-04-10 GOLD bullish video
Bessant is actively suppressing bond yields via plunge-protection-style swap lines, gold resurfaces every time yields are pushed down, and petrodollar erosion from Hormuz disruption structurally reduces dollar demand — making gold the required debasement hedge
“you have to have a debasement hedge. Like you just have to because at the end of the day, they will try everything”
90d -13.5%
2026-04-10 AI COMPUTE SUPPLIERS / CHIP SELLERS TO HYPER SCALERS bullish video
Compute is a national imperative and someone will fund it, but owning the hyper scalers means taking on their balance sheet and private credit risk; owning the companies selling to them (chip makers, infrastructure) captures the same demand signal without the…
“I don't want to be exposed to the people buying it. I want to own the people that are selling it.”
2025-09-26 BITCOIN owns Forward Guidance · video
Long-term Bitcoin thesis intact via macro liquidity cycle, but digital-asset-treasury (DAT) companies created an air pocket by buying aggressively and then slowing—most DATs are trading at a discount to MNAV—which suppresses near-term price until the marginal…
“I still own long-term Bitcoin bags, but hesitant on anything shorter term horizon, like less than four months”
90d -20.5% · 180d -35.0%
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-26 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Gold is the cleaner macro hedge because the global monetary system is structurally shifting away from fiat reserves (gold as % of total reserves rising post-Russia/Ukraine asset seizure) while dollar debasement broadens into mainstream society, and Bitcoin's…
“gold has just been so much cleaner... nicely grinding higher”
90d +20.2% · 180d +20.1%
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-19 NVDA bearish Forward Guidance · video
At $4.3T+ valuation, Nvidia's CEO repeatedly using elevated stock to invest in third parties (Intel, CoreWeave) signals insiders treating the equity as monopoly money they know is overvalued, while the technical chart is broken
“the chart looks horrendous and I would sell too if it's a $4.3 trillion company”
90d +1.4% · 180d -2.1%
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-19 IWM bullish Forward Guidance · video
Fed rate cuts reduce the cost of capital that had concentrated flows into mega-cap tech; enormous short interest in Russell futures is now covering as small caps break out and lead equities higher, confirmed by Thursday post-Fed price action as the real signal
“small caps are leading the charge. Like, it's it's game on in my mind”
90d +2.7% · 180d +1.8%
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-07 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Gold captures both macro tails simultaneously — fiscal expansion fuels inflationary upside while rate cuts and negative real rates fuel the recessionary upside — leaving margin-call liquidation as the sole meaningful downside risk, which can be hedged with…
“It captures both tails. Your only risk is some sort of margin call situation”
90d +15.1% · 180d +41.4% · 1y +19.4%
Gold is the Only Trade Left
2025-09-05 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Indices are at stretched valuation levels with MAG7 comprising 40% of the index weight, making it irrational to buy given a deteriorating labor market, stagflation risk, and no liquidity impulse to justify multiples
“I think crazy to buy the indices here at these valuation levels where MAG 7 make up 40% of the index”
90d -8.3% · 180d -6.3% · 1y -25.3%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-05 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Global debasement playbook is in innings 1-3 with QT still ongoing and QE not yet started, while central banks ditch treasuries, real rates are set to fall, and institutional ownership is near-zero (41% of hedge funds own zero gold), making gold a two-tail…
“we're in inning one to three of this debasement playbook... I see it running into November, December”
90d +16.9% · 180d +42.5% · 1y +20.7%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-05 long GOLD / short GOLD pair Forward Guidance · video
Prefer physical gold over gold miners because miners carry equity beta that can drag the position in a broad risk-off or margin-call event, removing the clean debasement/negative-real-rate thesis
“I like gold a lot better than gold miners here just because you remove that equity beta from it”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-21 USTS bearish Forward Guidance · video
Long-end yields move higher over the next three weeks regardless of Jackson Hole outcome due to structural supply/demand deterioration — foreign central bank retreat from auctions, heavy September coupon issuance, and TGA refill draining bank reserves
“I think the long end is higher in 3 weeks regardless of what happens tomorrow”
90d -2.4% · 180d -4.0% · 1y -1.3%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-21 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin's digital gold properties make it a superior asset in a nominal-growth-via-inflation regime compared to high-multiple equities like Mag7, which face multiple compression as real rates are suppressed and purchasing power is eroded
“I think Bitcoin has digital gold properties that benefits it more than a lot of other things even Mag7”
90d -18.7% · 180d -40.0% · 1y -30.3%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-21 short USTS / short USTS other Forward Guidance · video
Shorting both 2-year and 30-year Treasuries simultaneously creates a win-win around Jackson Hole: a hawkish Powell blows out the 2s while the 30s only rally marginally, and a dovish Powell leaves 2s flat while the 30s sell off sharply
“it sort of feels like a win-win there”
90d -2.4% · 180d -4.0% · 1y -1.3%
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-10 USTS bearish Forward Guidance · video
A tariff reversal forces ~$100B in reimbursements plus eliminates ~$400B in annual revenue, blowing out the deficit well beyond CBO projections and driving yields higher as the bond market reprices the fiscal deterioration
“my gut would say yields up”
90d +2.2% · 180d +2.6% · 1y +1.0%
What if the U.S. is Forced to REIMBURSE Tariffs?
2025-08-10 short Big Tech / long SMALL CAPS / EQUAL WEIGHT / REAL ECONOMY pair Forward Guidance · video
If tariffs are struck down, the deficit blowout reaccelerates the core economy and reverses NASDAQ's insane outperformance vs small caps and equal weight, which were penalized most by the regressive tariff burden
What if the U.S. is Forced to REIMBURSE Tariffs?
2025-07-27 USD bearish Forward Guidance · video
Dollar is undergoing the same regime shift gold experienced post-Russia-Ukraine — the correlation to rate differentials has permanently broken since Liberation Day as global capital repositions away from US assets, making the secular devaluation trade…
“the devaluation trade and trend is strong still and it's obvious where we end up”
90d -1.4% · 180d -1.2% · 1y -7.6%
Liberation Day Broke The Dollar
2025-07-26 5-YEAR INFLATION BREAK-EVENS bullish Forward Guidance · video
Break-evens are rising even as oil is flat/falling, signaling markets are slowly pricing in secular Fed independence erosion and a structurally higher inflation regime — the disinflation/deflation narrative is gone
“the play is that that'll go higher”
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-26 COPPER bullish Forward Guidance · video
Copper is a cyclical inflation hedge that has not yet priced in the debasement/secular-inflation narrative the way gold has, offering a less-frothy expression of the same macro tailwind
“it's a more cyclical play to inflation...it just doesn't have as much froth in it as gold right now”
90d -9.2% · 180d +2.5% · 1y +11.4%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-04 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Global fiat debasement through negative real rates and hidden yield curve control forces labor capital into hard assets; Bitcoin is the cleanest hedge for ordinary savers against currency erosion across all political regimes
“if you just own Bitcoin, you can stay ahead of this”
90d +11.7% · 180d -19.0% · 1y -41.6%
All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-04 long GOLD / long BITCOIN basket Forward Guidance · video
As the US undergoes EM-ification via currency debasement and every central bank races to the bottom, gold and Bitcoin together are a cleaner real-asset hedge than navigating the complex macro crosscurrents of nominal equity and credit markets
“to me golden bitcoin is just like a much cleaner trade I think”
90d +13.6% · 180d +5.0% · 1y -8.6%
All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-30 ALTCOINS (BROAD) bearish Forward Guidance · video
There is no mechanical transmission of the largest marginal capital pool — boomer money market fund rebalancing flows — into altcoins, which also lack any real equity claim or cash flows, meaning the structural free-lunch era of buying any new token for 10x…
“There's just no mechanical move towards that into altcoins”
The Stablecoin Future, Macro Moves & Big Tech Embracing Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap
2025-06-27 short SPX / long REST OF WORLD EQUITIES pair Forward Guidance · video
20 years of US equity outperformance is one-to-one correlated with dollar strength; a secular dollar reversal will flip the regime, making short US assets vs long rest-of-world equities the defining macro trade of the coming cycle
“I want to be short US assets along the rest of the world. It's going to be fantastic for them”
The Fed’s New Mandate Is Financing The Deficit | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-20 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
US exceptionalism flows are reversing, the dollar faces structural depreciation pressure, and gold is one of the very few asset classes without a near-term landmine — making it a default anchor in a world where equities, bonds, and the dollar all carry…
“gold... it just it seems like a really solid bet”
90d +8.2% · 180d +28.7% · 1y +24.0%
The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-06 Crypto Other bullish Forward Guidance · video
A structural supply–demand imbalance in public markets — massive institutional demand for cash-flowing crypto companies against a near-empty IPO supply — is creating a generational entry window into crypto equities, with Circle's 20x-oversubscribed, +200%…
“You're watching this stuff in slow motion happen and it's just time to get on the train”
The Trump–Elon Fallout Proves Nothing Stops The Spending Train | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-06 HYPE bullish Forward Guidance · video
Hyperliquid is a cash-flowing decentralized exchange with massive revenue, aggressive token buybacks, and no VC overhang — a real business hitting all-time highs while VC-backed governance tokens bleed out, representing the new standard for crypto token design
“HYPE is hitting new all-time highs while the VC back crap is just falling by the wayside”
The Trump–Elon Fallout Proves Nothing Stops The Spending Train | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-25 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Structurally impossible austerity and politically untouchable entitlements make perpetual fiat debasement inevitable, leaving Bitcoin as the only rational store-of-value trade
“there's one trade. It's either it's Bitcoin... store of value trading”
90d +5.8% · 180d -22.0% · 1y -29.2%
How Endless Debt Became America's Culture
2025-05-25 long BITCOIN / long GOLD / short Long Dur Treasuries ratio Forward Guidance · video
Hard assets (Bitcoin and gold) will continue to crush bonds on a generational basis as fiat debasement accelerates from debt-fueled fiscal policy that cannot be reversed politically
“Bitcoin and also gold relative to bonds — this is the generation trade both of these”
90d +1.7% · 180d -1.9% · 1y +1.0%
How Endless Debt Became America's Culture
2025-05-23 International Dev bullish Forward Guidance · video
Non-US equity markets (e.g. Germany) have far more remaining fiscal capacity — going from 2% to 5% deficit — lower valuations, and a tailwind from global capital repatriation out of dollar assets, making them a cleaner long than the US at 23x multiples
“if I just own Bitcoin and the rest of the world and not own the US, I can isolate away from those risks”
90d +7.4% · 180d +10.9% · 1y +33.1%
America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-23 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Gold provides a safe haven through any near-term liquidity fragility event while sharing the same long-term fiscal debasement tailwind as Bitcoin, making it the right hold through a potential frag moment
“I feel okay to risk that frag moment if I'm in gold and Bitcoin”
90d -0.8% · 180d +21.1% · 1y +33.7%
America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Foreign holders of Mag 7 are largely unhedged on currency, so TWD appreciation and broader USD weakness creates a double-hit of currency loss plus equity drawdown that forces structural de-allocation; stagflationary backdrop with a steepening curve is also a…
“there's just a lot of headwinds in my opinion for that part of the market”
90d -16.8% · 180d -28.0% · 1y -46.9%
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
BTC is repeating last summer's pattern where it consolidated at a high-volume node (97k today mirrors the 67–69k range in summer 2024) before an eventual liquidity-driven move; it functions as a global liquidity release valve but is not immune to a US-led…
“I wouldn't be surprised if we just repeat last summer again”
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09 USD bearish Forward Guidance · video
Foreign institutions globally — insurers, pensions, sovereign wealth funds — are massively overweight unhedged US equities and Treasuries; the Taiwan dollar move is the canary, and a multi-year structural repatriation out of USD assets is beginning as…
“canary in the coal mine as to what global allocators are thinking”
90d +1.0% · 180d -2.4% · 1y -2.2%
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09 long SMALL-CAP VALUE EQUITIES (DOMESTIC US) / short Big Tech pair Forward Guidance · video
Domestic small-cap value stands to benefit from a steeper yield curve, deregulation, and front-end rate cuts while Mag 7 faces headwinds from foreign de-allocation and a stagflationary macro backdrop — the K-shaped economy is reversing its beneficiaries
“small cap value or other things over like these large Mag 7”
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02 HOUSING SECTOR bearish Forward Guidance · video
Housing recovery requires meaningfully lower mortgage rates, but yields cannot decline given fiscal deficit dynamics and structural bond supply; construction and jobs tied to housing represent a meaningful pocket of ongoing economic weakness
“how does the housing market recover in a big way when yields can't go down”
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-25 long USTS / short USTS other Forward Guidance · video
Fed will eventually cut front-end rates as growth weakens while inflation and fiscal deficits keep long-end yields elevated or rising, extending the curve steepening trend already underway
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-15 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Forward Guidance · video
Massive leverage embedded in the Treasury basis trade, combined with growing fiscal credibility concerns, risks a Liz Truss-style bond-market strike that forces long-end yields sharply higher despite the administration's goal of lowering the 10-year
“I've been really focused on the bond market this week... there's a lot of leverage built up in US treasuries”
90d +1.4% · 180d -5.4% · 1y -3.3%
The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025
2025-03-21 Long Dur Treasuries bullish Forward Guidance · video
Fed is in a hawkish stance and Treasury is aligned on bringing yields down, making bonds the most obvious trade in the current regime
“the most clear trade to me here is longing bonds”
90d -3.6% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -0.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-21 short Big Tech / long BITCOIN pair Forward Guidance · video
Capital rotation out of US mega-cap tech back to Europe and China — driven by their fiscal expansions — will compress NASDAQ while the resulting global liquidity impulse lifts Bitcoin, which should decouple from NASDAQ as it matures into a global asset
“short NASDAQ long Bitcoin is interesting for that reason”
90d +7.4% · 180d +7.8% · 1y -20.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-14 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Forward Guidance · video
Long bonds offer limited convexity because if growth craters enough to require big Fed stimulus, rising global sovereign yields (Germany, Japan) cap how far US long rates can fall, while if the controlled burn continues, modest cuts produce little upside…
“interest rates broadly here are becoming much less attractive from the long side”
Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup
2025-03-14 BITCOIN bearish Forward Guidance · video
Crypto is in a bear market with no near-term catalyst for recovery—the Fed is doubly behind the curve, fiscal is tightening, liquidity is flat at best, and unlike prior cycles there is no obvious near-term Bazooka; any bounce to 70k support risks a flush into…
“I think we're in a bare market and no one really recognizes like that until recognizes it”
90d -25.9% · 180d -35.6% · 1y +15.3%
Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup

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