Investors / stance tracking
What Tavi Costa is saying
Partner, Crescat Capital
25 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-24, most recently 2025-08-14. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tavi Costa's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tavi Costa is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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25
tracked stances
14
themes
0
side flips
2025-08-14
last heard
Returns 90d +6.7% (n=27) · 180d +23.8% (n=27) · 1y +29.7% (n=27)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-08-14 | |
| SILVER | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-08-14 | |
| Big Tech | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-05-14 | |
| Commodities Broad | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-08-14 | |
| Gold Miners | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-05-14 | |
| COPPER | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-08-14 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-08-14
COPPER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Bloomberg BNEF projects 400,000 tons/year of incremental AI-construction demand over the next decade against a 6-million-ton deficit, and an infrastructure/onshoring boom amplifies the structural supply shortfall
90d +12.5% · 180d +29.8% · 1y +42.9%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-08-14
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Agricultural commodities will take the lead in the next leg of the inflationary cycle, following metals, as money supply at all-time highs and a 7% fiscal deficit keep reflationary pressures building
90d +5.5% · 180d +14.2% · 1y +42.0%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-08-14
SILVER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold-silver ratio at 80, solar and AI-infrastructure industrial demand surging, supply constrained by lack of major new discoveries, and monetary re-rating not yet priced in — all pointing to a discovery phase that could send prices to triple digits
“It wouldn't shock me at all if that means triple digits”
90d +40.1% · 180d +112.8% · 1y +69.5%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-08-14
HL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Breaking out of a multi-decade downward trend as institutional capital finally rotates into silver miners, with implied volatility still far below levels consistent with a genuine breakout — options look cheap relative to realized moves
90d +102.9% · 180d +200.3% · 1y +140.1%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-08-14
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold's multi-year breakout above a triple-top has confirmed a long-term precious-metals bull trend that historically pulls silver, miners, and related assets higher in sequence
90d +25.6% · 180d +50.5% · 1y +30.7%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-08-14
long SILVER / long ENERGY
hedge
Wealthion · video
Owning energy alongside mining exposure is the correct hedge for a mining book — not shorting equities — because metals prices relative to energy costs are near all-time highs and energy costs are the primary risk to mining margins in an inflationary regime
90d +23.2% · 180d +70.1% · 1y +59.4%
Tavi Costa: Silver Soaring to $100?! Why A Triple-Digit Price Is Coming
2025-05-14
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Fed stubbornness while the economy slows or contracts will force a sharp drop in the 2-year yield toward a 'two handle,' potentially halving from current levels; this trade may still be in early stages despite year-to-date gains
“I do think the two-year yield could potentially be reduced even in half”
90d +3.2% · 180d +5.5% · 1y +4.9%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
SILVER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold-to-silver ratio at 100 is historically extreme making silver the cheapest metal on Earth; mean reversion to 60-70 combined with industrial demand from onshoring and AI buildout implies $100+ silver
“silver is probably the cheapest metal on Earth”
90d +17.6% · 180d +56.5% · 1y +158.2%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Central banks are being forced to accumulate gold due to deglobalization, US debt imbalances require monetization/inflation to resolve, and 60/40 portfolio managers remain severely underallocated—while US government debt is backed by less than 2% of gold…
“gold is just at the beginning...there's a lot more to go”
90d +5.2% · 180d +29.1% · 1y +45.7%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
Gold Miners
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold prices are nearly double extraction costs creating a 'golden age of mining' while global exploration budgets and new discoveries remain at lows mirroring the 1970s supply drought; small-cap explorers offer venture-capital-style asymmetry with activist…
“companies produce [gold] almost double your cost to extract the metal from the ground”
90d +27.8% · 180d +66.8% · 1y +107.8%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
Big Tech
bearish
Wealthion · video
US CAPE at 33+ reflects 15-year corporate earnings growth exceeding anything since the 1920s, which is unsustainable; mega-cap tech is starting to struggle as fundamentals revert to mean and capital rotates toward hard assets
“we're seeing mega cap companies starting to struggle”
90d -12.0% · 180d -20.4% · 1y -39.4%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
ENERGY
bullish
Wealthion · video
AI data center buildout and onshoring of industrial capacity will add one US-equivalent of electricity consumption in five years, driving structural demand for power generation fuels that are currently out of favor and due for commodity rotation
“we're about to add one US equivalent of electricity consumption in the next five years because of AI”
90d +0.1% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +40.6%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2025-05-14
long Commodities Broad / short SPX
ratio
Wealthion · video
The commodities-to-equities ratio is at historic lows after 15 years of exceptional US equity returns; dollar weakness, deglobalization, and onshoring will trigger a multi-year rotation of capital out of US equities into hard assets and natural resource…
“money flowing out of equity markets in the US...finding its way into natural resource industries”
90d -4.2% · 180d -4.4% · 1y +10.6%
Gold to $20K? Tavi Costa on the Great Rotation That Will Reshape Markets
2024-09-28
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
Fed is fiscally trapped — forced to suppress rates to cover surging interest payments, not by macro data — which will spread dollar weakness beyond hard assets into other fiat currencies, a view he says is against consensus.
“the weakness and fragility of the US dollar...starting to spread that weakness towards other fiat currencies”
90d -8.5% · 180d -5.9% · 1y -2.1%
Weekly Recap: Hidden Recession, Fed Insider Insights, Rate Cuts & More
2024-09-28
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structural supply constraints from deglobalization and chronic underinvestment keep commodity prices supported, and rate suppression to service US debt will periodically rotate commodity prices upward.
“very bullish Commodities, very bullish hard assets”
90d -0.3% · 180d +5.3% · 1y +7.0%
Weekly Recap: Hidden Recession, Fed Insider Insights, Rate Cuts & More
2024-09-28
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
US equities are highly overvalued on the CAPE ratio while the yield curve is steepening from one of the longest inversions in history — a combination he views as a strong recession warning.
“I've been very concerned about US Equity markets for some time now”
90d -4.1% · 180d +0.5% · 1y -17.1%
Weekly Recap: Hidden Recession, Fed Insider Insights, Rate Cuts & More
2024-09-24
OIL
bullish
Wealthion · video
CFTC net longs are at two-decade lows while oil has already priced in a hard landing that equities haven't, and deglobalization-driven supply constraints plus rebounding inflation expectations (visible in break-even rates) support a mean reversion sharply…
“oil markets have already reflected a hard landing while equity markets are reflecting...everybody's party”
90d -0.3% · 180d +2.2% · 1y +4.2%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Central banks own less than 20% of reserves in gold versus 70% in the 1970s and are just beginning to accumulate, a secular bull market is underway supported by structurally weaker USD, and declining global production compresses supply while institutional…
“I think gold is in a secular bull market...central banks are just starting to buy gold”
90d -2.1% · 180d +12.7% · 1y +39.5%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
NATURAL GAS
bullish
Wealthion · video
The BTU-adjusted oil-to-natural-gas ratio is at a historically extreme spread, steep futures contango historically marks cycle bottoms, and deeply negative sentiment means bearish supply fears are already reflected in the price.
“natural gas has been demolished and nobody cares about it...most of those things already reflect the price”
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
Gold Miners
bullish
Wealthion · video
The miners-to-gold ratio has declined for 30-40 years and is forming a technical bottom while M&A activity has restarted (a historical cycle inflection signal), leaving producers with compressed multiples despite leveraged upside to a secular gold bull market.
“the gold space in particular is a legacy space...offers one of the most inefficient segments of the market I've ever seen”
90d -15.9% · 180d +8.1% · 1y +76.7%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES (RESOURCE-DRIVEN)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Leadership rotates from US to EM every couple of decades and signs of that shift are already visible outside China; a weaker dollar and commodity upcycle structurally favors resource-driven EM economies while US fiscal exceptionalism fades as interest…
“Emerging Markets could do very well on that front”
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
Big Tech
bearish
Wealthion · video
CAPE valuations are at peak levels, the yield curve is uninverting from the longest deep inversion in recent history (a recessionary signal), the 50bp cut pattern historically coincides with recessions, and the fiscal spending boost that drove the US premium…
“the time to be bullish in tech and bullish in US equities was a decade or so ago, not now”
90d -7.9% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -23.5%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
SILVER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Silver historically follows gold in secular commodity bull markets and is likely to be an even larger percentage beneficiary than gold itself given its smaller market and dual industrial/monetary demand.
“silver is potentially an even bigger beneficiary of something like that”
90d -8.1% · 180d +2.0% · 1y +35.5%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
short USD / long AUD, CAD, JPY, EUR BASKET
pair
Wealthion · video
US interest payments relative to GDP (~4%) are the highest in the developed world, forcing the Fed to cut more aggressively than other central banks, which will compress the interest-rate differential and weaken USD against major fiat currencies that have…
“the dollar would be I think under pressure because of the sense of urgency of the Fed having to act more than other central banks”
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
2024-09-24
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Wealthion · video
Fed cuts will suppress the 2-year yield while rebounding inflation expectations and rising energy prices push the 10-year yield materially higher, producing a bear steepener from historically deep inversion levels — the longest inversion in recent history…
“the 10-year yield has a lot of room to grow much further”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Trapped Fed!? Tavi Costa on Recession & Inflation Risks, Bullish Gold & Oil
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