Investors / stance tracking
What Harley Bassman is saying
Managing Partner, Simplify Asset Management
14 dated public stances tracked since 2020-07-04, most recently 2024-10-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Harley Bassman's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Harley Bassman is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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14
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2024-10-02
last heard
Returns 90d -6.3% (n=16) · 180d +6.3% (n=16) · 1y +11.6% (n=16)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2024-10-02 | |
| AMLP | 1 | 1 bullish | 2020-07-04 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2021-08-22 | |
| IG | 1 | 1 bearish | 2021-05-28 | |
| Mortgage Reits | 1 | 1 bullish | 2020-07-04 | |
| SOFR | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-10-02 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2024-10-02
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Market prices ~3% Fed funds rate by Sep/Oct 2025 — 100bps ahead of the Fed's own dot plot — while GDP runs near 3% and nominal GDP near 6%, making a crash-landing pace of cuts implausible
“I'd be shorting the sep October contracts there or doing other trades that would take advantage of that”
90d -1.1% · 180d -2.2% · 1y -4.4%
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
2024-10-02
USTS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
MOVE at 95-100 while 1-month realized bond vol is only 68 — a ~40% premium vs the historical 8-12% norm for implied over realized — so selling interest-rate optionality via MBS or callable munis offers structural edge that should compress as Fed uncertainty…
“implied vol for bonds is way too high and that's why the trades I want to do involve selling convexity”
90d +4.7% · 180d +1.1% · 1y -2.5%
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
2021-08-22
TIPS
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
CPI is a deliberately understated government construct using hedonics and substitution to reduce entitlement cost-of-living adjustments, so TIPS systematically fail to compensate holders for actual inflation experienced.
“do i want to buy a security based upon that cpi well the answer is no i don't”
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
2021-08-22
BITCOIN
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
Bitcoin is structurally an act of war against sovereign currency monopolies, so authoritarian governments will ban it outright and the US will neuter it through mandatory disclosure/taxation, defeating its core value proposition as a censorship-resistant…
“bitcoin is an act of war against a sovereign state”
90d -21.3% · 180d +18.9% · 1y +56.6%
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
2021-08-22
VOL
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
Options pricing (insurance) is anomalously cheap relative to actual tail risk because pervasive 'Fed put' complacency has caused investors to over-lever and under-insure, creating asymmetric value in being long rather than short convexity.
“the price of insurance is so incredibly low — that's the anomaly here”
90d -20.5% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -33.4%
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
2021-05-28
IG
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
Buying options on the 5-year investment grade CDX index provides extreme convexity tail protection on credit — a small premium (~10% of AUM) controls massive notional, replicating the Big Short payoff structure but accessible to retail via an ETF wrapper…
“we have this product in registration right now...it's basically a tail head strategy for credit as opposed to equity”
#91 Harley Bassman (How to become a Convexity Maven?)
2021-05-28
USTS
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
Junk bonds at ~3.9-4% yield embed no risk premium — maximum gain is coupon plus return of principal while downside is substantial loss of principal — and are bought only because the Fed has coerced capital out of near-zero Treasuries, making current prices…
“where are junk bonds trading at 3.9 percent really really...you have no wiggle room whatsoever”
#91 Harley Bassman (How to become a Convexity Maven?)
2021-01-16
long MUNIS / long LONG-DATED SWAPTION ON 10-YEAR RATES STRUCK AT 3.5-4%
hedge
Harley Bassman · video
Quality closed-end muni funds yield 4-4.5% with near-term Fed-anchored rate stability, but extension risk explodes if 10-year breaks 3.5-4%; historically cheap long-dated swaptions struck at that inflection point buy back the tail exactly where the muni bonds…
“if I buy an option struck where that inflection point is obviously buying back that extension risk in the closed end fund”
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
2021-01-16
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Fiscal spending boosts near-term nominal GDP supporting equities, while put strikes at 275 imply S&P PE of 14-16x which are acceptable floors, creating a multi-year asymmetric payoff via OTM call financed by far-OTM put sale
“down there 275, 250 — you're talking PEs of 14, 15, 16, those are not bad numbers”
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
2020-07-25
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Asset replacement for equity holders — buying long-dated SPY calls (Dec 2022, 340 strike) financed by selling a far-OTM put (230 strike) gives leveraged upside to financial inflation driven by Fed printing and fiscal spending, while the put risk is buffered…
“sell those things and putting this trade on instead because it gives you a lot of upside leverage”
Never Panic, Never Give Up (guest: Convexity Maven Harley Bassman) - Market Huddle Ep.90
2020-07-04
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
Agency mortgage REITs (Annaly, AGNC) yield 10-11% with zero credit risk because they hold only GSE-backed (Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie) MBS, making the yield spread vs 0.65% 10-year treasuries extraordinary on a risk-adjusted basis
“10 percent yielding asset with no credit risk versus a 0.65 ten-year”
90d +10.4% · 180d +35.4% · 1y +61.7%
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
2020-07-04
AMLP
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
MLP sector is cheap on valuation but held back by oil and credit headwinds; high distribution yield makes call options inexpensive relative to the asset, so buying upside calls only (no put-selling) captures asymmetric recovery upside while limiting downside…
“the calls on AMLP are inexpensive...I would do the calls only, not sell puts”
90d -12.1% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +72.1%
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
2020-07-04
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Fed expanding balance sheet at 65% rate buying all assets forces a don't-fight-the-Fed long; SPY risk reversal (buy 340 call / sell 230 put, ~2.5yr, zero cost) gives superior beta to outright equity ownership as an asset replacement trade
“I'm just going to not fight the Fed...put a risk reversal where you buy the money call and sell the money put”
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
2020-07-04
short SPX / long SPX
spread
Harley Bassman · video
Abnormally flat implied vol surface allows selling a near-term higher-strike SPY put and buying a longer-dated lower-strike put at near-identical vol, yielding positive carry while cheaply retaining long optionality through the US election in November
“I basically get to own the election risk...the trade is positive carry”
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
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