Investors / stance tracking
What Harley Bassman is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management
28 dated public stances tracked since 2020-07-04, most recently 2026-09-17. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Harley Bassman's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Harley Bassman is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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28
tracked stances
14
themes
3
side flips
2026-09-17
last heard
Returns 90d -2.5% 38% correct · 16 calls · 180d +3.1% 50% correct · 16 calls · 1y +7.7% 50% correct · 16 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-02 | USTS | bearish | +4.7% | +1.1% | -2.5% |
| 2024-10-02 | SOFR | bearish | -1.2% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| 2023-09-14 | VOL | bearish | +21.3% | +32.0% | +39.5% |
| 2023-09-14 | USTS | bearish | -3.2% | -3.1% | -9.6% |
| 2023-09-14 | MUNIS | bullish | +3.6% | +4.7% | +6.6% |
| 2023-09-14 | Mortgage Reits | bullish | +1.9% | -0.4% | +8.6% |
| 2023-09-14 | Investment Grade Credit | bearish | -6.2% | -6.3% | -13.2% |
| 2022-07-21 | Mortgage Reits | bullish | -23.7% | -6.3% | -6.0% |
| 2022-07-21 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +16.7% | +7.8% | +10.2% |
| 2022-06-27 | VOL | bullish | -4.6% | -33.8% | -70.5% |
| 2021-08-22 | VOL | bullish | -20.5% | -12.4% | -33.4% |
| 2021-08-22 | BITCOIN | bearish | -21.3% | +18.9% | +56.6% |
| 2021-05-28 | USTS | bearish | -2.3% | +0.0% | +8.8% |
| 2021-01-16 | GOLD | bullish | -3.6% | -0.8% | -1.8% |
| 2020-07-04 | Mortgage Reits | bullish | +10.5% | +35.4% | +61.7% |
| 2020-07-04 | AMLP | bullish | -12.1% | +15.9% | +72.1% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Mortgage Reits — bullish2023-09-14 → bearish2026-09-17
Investment Grade Credit — bearish2023-09-14 → bullish2026-09-17
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Reits | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-17 | |
| USTS | 3 | 3 bearish | 2024-10-02 | |
| VOL | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2023-09-14 | |
| BITCOIN | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-09-17 | |
| Investment Grade Credit | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-17 | |
| AGENCY MORTGAGE REITS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2021-01-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Bitcoin is fundamentally useless as a transactional medium (750K trades per day vs Visa's equivalent per minute) and its existence constitutes an act of war against sovereign states, making its long-run value zero
“I do think that Bitcoin at some point is going to zero. It's an act of war against a sovereign state.”
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust
Said again: 2026-09-17 (Macro Voices)
2026-09-17
Mortgage Reits
bearish
Macro Voices · video
The MBS market has recouponed toward higher-coupon bonds now trading near strike price, making the embedded short option maximally convex; yield curve flattening further widens spreads and increases negative convexity, so MBS and their ETFs will sell off…
“The mortgage market will start to have an impact on the overall fixed income market.”
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust
2026-09-17
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Despite unprecedented borrowing, hyperscalers all operate underlying highly profitable core businesses generating sufficient cash flow to service and repay their debt, making the bonds money good regardless of equity outcomes or AI competitive disruption
“I think the bonds are probably money good. I just don't see a bankruptcy with the hyperscalers.”
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust
MOVE at 95-100 while 1-month realized bond vol is only 68 — a ~40% premium vs the historical 8-12% norm for implied over realized — so selling interest-rate optionality via MBS or callable munis offers structural edge that should compress as Fed uncertainty…
“implied vol for bonds is way too high and that's why the trades I want to do involve selling convexity”
90d +4.7% · 180d +1.1% · 1y -2.5%
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
2024-10-02
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Market prices ~3% Fed funds rate by Sep/Oct 2025 — 100bps ahead of the Fed's own dot plot — while GDP runs near 3% and nominal GDP near 6%, making a crash-landing pace of cuts implausible
“I'd be shorting the sep October contracts there or doing other trades that would take advantage of that”
90d -1.2% · 180d -2.2% · 1y -4.4%
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
2023-09-14
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
Inverted yield curve has inflated the embedded prepayment option, pushing mortgage spreads to near-GFC highs (~180bp over 10yr); when the curve steepens (front end falls from 5% toward 2%, 10yr stable) the embedded call loses ~35% of its value and bond prices…
“I think this is the best investment in the interest rate market right now”
90d +1.9% · 180d -0.4% · 1y +8.6%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
HY spreads in the low 400s (near long-term average) fail to compensate for an impending refinancing wall as 5-year debt issued at 2020-21 record-low rates rolls over at much higher rates starting in roughly 18 months
“high yield junk bonds hit the wall in the next year and a half because they borrowed money at very low rates”
90d -3.2% · 180d -3.1% · 1y -9.6%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
MOVE at 120+ (well above its long-term average) means the market is overpaying for rate optionality relative to credit and duration, making selling interest rate options the highest risk-adjusted allocation among the three fixed-income risk vectors
“you're getting paid handsomely to sell implied volatility in interest rates”
90d +21.3% · 180d +32.0% · 1y +39.5%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
2023-09-14
Investment Grade Credit
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
IG spreads near the long-term average (~65bp) offer no incremental compensation for the recession the Fed is actively engineering, making credit risk unattractive relative to convexity risk at current prices
90d -6.2% · 180d -6.3% · 1y -13.2%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
Callable munis embed a 30yr-bond/10yr-call structure whose prepayment option is richly priced due to the inverted yield curve — the same dynamic as MBS — so curve steepening will compress the option value and lift prices materially
90d +3.6% · 180d +4.7% · 1y +6.6%
MacroVoices #393 Harley Bassman: Convexity Spells Opportunity
2022-07-21
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
The mortgage-to-Treasury spread at ~130bp is historically extreme (vs. a normal 40bp), triple-A credit with no recession default risk, and new origination supply will collapse as higher rates choke refinancing and home purchases, making this spread…
“to go and get a effectively triple a credit at 130 over strikes me as being a rather fancy number”
90d -23.7% · 180d -6.3% · 1y -6.0%
MacroVoices #333 Harley Bassman: Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs. MOVE, Demographics & More
2022-07-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
Powell will aggressively hike to protect his legacy (contrasting with Arthur Burns), nominal GDP running at ~6-8% vs. 3% 10-year yields is an unsustainable gap, and markets materially underestimate how far the Fed will go.
“i think rates can go a lot higher than what people the markets pressing in”
90d +16.7% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +10.2%
MacroVoices #333 Harley Bassman: Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs. MOVE, Demographics & More
2022-07-21
MORTGAGE REITS
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
At a 130bp spread levered 7:1, mortgage REITs offer compelling risk-adjusted returns vs. the 40bp spread that triggered last year's losses, with managers able to hedge out the floating financing cost.
“a 130 spread levered up seven to one that's looking pretty interesting”
MacroVoices #333 Harley Bassman: Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs. MOVE, Demographics & More
VIX term structure is flat at 30 across months 1–9, which is structurally abnormal — at elevated vol levels the curve should be inverted as the market prices mean reversion to the ~20 long-run average, so the flat structure implies the back end is mispriced…
“flat term surface at 30 strikes me as long — what am I missing over here”
90d -4.6% · 180d -33.8% · 1y -70.5%
Keeping it Simple on the Road | Ep. 3: 2020 From A Position of Strength
Options pricing (insurance) is anomalously cheap relative to actual tail risk because pervasive 'Fed put' complacency has caused investors to over-lever and under-insure, creating asymmetric value in being long rather than short convexity.
“the price of insurance is so incredibly low — that's the anomaly here”
90d -20.5% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -33.4%
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
2021-08-22
TIPS
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
CPI is a deliberately understated government construct using hedonics and substitution to reduce entitlement cost-of-living adjustments, so TIPS systematically fail to compensate holders for actual inflation experienced.
“do i want to buy a security based upon that cpi well the answer is no i don't”
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
Bitcoin is structurally an act of war against sovereign currency monopolies, so authoritarian governments will ban it outright and the US will neuter it through mandatory disclosure/taxation, defeating its core value proposition as a censorship-resistant…
“bitcoin is an act of war against a sovereign state”
90d -21.3% · 180d +18.9% · 1y +56.6%
Ep 172- Convexity Maven Talks Macro ft. Harley Bassman with Srivatsan Prakash
2021-05-28
IG
bearish
Harley Bassman · video
Buying options on the 5-year investment grade CDX index provides extreme convexity tail protection on credit — a small premium (~10% of AUM) controls massive notional, replicating the Big Short payoff structure but accessible to retail via an ETF wrapper…
“we have this product in registration right now...it's basically a tail head strategy for credit as opposed to equity”
#91 Harley Bassman (How to become a Convexity Maven?)
Junk bonds at ~3.9-4% yield embed no risk premium — maximum gain is coupon plus return of principal while downside is substantial loss of principal — and are bought only because the Fed has coerced capital out of near-zero Treasuries, making current prices…
“where are junk bonds trading at 3.9 percent really really...you have no wiggle room whatsoever”
90d -2.3% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +8.8%
#91 Harley Bassman (How to become a Convexity Maven?)
2021-01-16
long MUNIS / long LONG-DATED SWAPTION ON 10-YEAR RATES STRUCK AT 3.5-4%
hedge
Harley Bassman · video
Quality closed-end muni funds yield 4-4.5% with near-term Fed-anchored rate stability, but extension risk explodes if 10-year breaks 3.5-4%; historically cheap long-dated swaptions struck at that inflection point buy back the tail exactly where the muni bonds…
“if I buy an option struck where that inflection point is obviously buying back that extension risk in the closed end fund”
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
2021-01-16
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Fiscal spending boosts near-term nominal GDP supporting equities, while put strikes at 275 imply S&P PE of 14-16x which are acceptable floors, creating a multi-year asymmetric payoff via OTM call financed by far-OTM put sale
“down there 275, 250 — you're talking PEs of 14, 15, 16, those are not bad numbers”
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
2021-01-16
AGENCY MORTGAGE REITS
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
Fed zero-rate forward guidance eliminates funding risk for 2-3 years while the MOVE index at historic lows makes convexity hedging cheap, letting agency mREITs sustain 8-10% yields with no credit risk since underlying bonds carry federal backstop
“mortgage reits are being able to yield eight nine ten percent because they're using the leverage”
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
Gold functions as a currency that cannot be debased by government money printing or fiscal expansion, making it a long-term hedge against monetary debasement distinct from yield-producing assets
“it's a currency that can't be debased — that's exactly what it is”
90d -3.6% · 180d -0.8% · 1y -1.8%
Harley Bassman: The Convexity Maven
2020-07-25
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Asset replacement for equity holders — buying long-dated SPY calls (Dec 2022, 340 strike) financed by selling a far-OTM put (230 strike) gives leveraged upside to financial inflation driven by Fed printing and fiscal spending, while the put risk is buffered…
“sell those things and putting this trade on instead because it gives you a lot of upside leverage”
Never Panic, Never Give Up (guest: Convexity Maven Harley Bassman) - Market Huddle Ep.90
2020-07-04
long SPX / short SPX
other
Harley Bassman · video
Fed expanding balance sheet at 65% rate buying all assets forces a don't-fight-the-Fed long; SPY risk reversal (buy 340 call / sell 230 put, ~2.5yr, zero cost) gives superior beta to outright equity ownership as an asset replacement trade
“I'm just going to not fight the Fed...put a risk reversal where you buy the money call and sell the money put”
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
2020-07-04
short SPX / long SPX
spread
Harley Bassman · video
Abnormally flat implied vol surface allows selling a near-term higher-strike SPY put and buying a longer-dated lower-strike put at near-identical vol, yielding positive carry while cheaply retaining long optionality through the US election in November
“I basically get to own the election risk...the trade is positive carry”
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
2020-07-04
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Harley Bassman · video
Agency mortgage REITs (Annaly, AGNC) yield 10-11% with zero credit risk because they hold only GSE-backed (Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie) MBS, making the yield spread vs 0.65% 10-year treasuries extraordinary on a risk-adjusted basis
“10 percent yielding asset with no credit risk versus a 0.65 ten-year”
90d +10.5% · 180d +35.4% · 1y +61.7%
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
MLP sector is cheap on valuation but held back by oil and credit headwinds; high distribution yield makes call options inexpensive relative to the asset, so buying upside calls only (no put-selling) captures asymmetric recovery upside while limiting downside…
“the calls on AMLP are inexpensive...I would do the calls only, not sell puts”
90d -12.1% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +72.1%
Talking Options with Convexity Maven Harley Bassman - MacroVoices #226 Postgame Segment
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