Investors / stance tracking
What Steve Eisman is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowHost, The Real Eisman Playbook; former PM, Neuberger Berman
27 dated public stances tracked since 2025-06-13, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Steve Eisman's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Steve Eisman is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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27
tracked stances
23
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-13 | long V / long MA | basket | +1.2% | -5.6% | -9.8% |
| 2025-06-13 | long GS / long BANKS / long MS | basket | +22.3% | +35.5% | +59.9% |
| 2025-06-13 | MS | bullish | +21.7% | +40.6% | +72.4% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-23 | |
| ANTHROPIC | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-29 | |
| ANTHROPIC IPO | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-30 | |
| Ai Infra | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-02 | |
| CRWV | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-30
ANTHROPIC IPO
bearish
Prof G Pod (Galloway) · video
No competitive moats exist around Anthropic's AI business, meaning price is the only lever for market share, making $800B in compute commitments existentially dangerous
“there no moats around this business... Being in a business committed to spend 800 billion dollars, where your entire franchise is just simply based on price, is dangerous”
Republicans are Jumping Ship Days Before the Midterms | The Week
2026-10-29
ANTHROPIC
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Anthropic's revenue growth slowed sharply as token maxing ended while revenue relative to compute and infrastructure expense deteriorated, undermining its business model and moat.
“Anthropic's revenue growth has slowed dramatically because of the end of token maxing.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-29 07:15 ET (5 min)
Eli Lilly offers exposure to positive U.S. economic trends and should also benefit from AI adoption without relying solely on the crowded core AI trade.
“You could invest in Eli Lilly too. I do. And they're going to benefit from AI.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-29 07:20 ET (5 min)
IBM is too small at $240B to challenge large tech and its core software and consulting businesses face direct disintermediation risk from AI, making its 5% revenue growth irrelevant.
“both of these divisions run the risk of being disintermediated by AI”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
France's debt-to-GDP at 120% is unsustainable and unlike US Treasuries, no global investor is required to hold French bonds, leaving them uniquely vulnerable to a spread-widening crisis.
“No one, and I mean no one, has to own French sovereign bonds”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
2026-10-23
Ai Infra
bearish
Steve Eisman (newest) · video
CoreWeave's debt cost rising from 9% to 15% makes AI data center economics unworkable for neocloud companies without strong balance sheets, breaking the capital-raising engine behind the AI build-out narrative.
“at a debt cost of 15%, I believe the economics of an AI data center don't work”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
Tesla posted 0% revenue growth with no credible evidence of autonomous driving progress, and a potential SpaceX merger would create unmanageable complexity that destroys value for both companies.
“Tesla, the growth company, grew revenue 0%”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
LLM and agentic AI apps have no moats so Meta's AI-driven momentum is temporary, while an $825B future infrastructure commitment with no positive free cash flow creates severe capital risk.
“LLM and Agentic AI apps have no moats”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
2026-10-23
NVR
bearish
Steve Eisman (newest) · video
Even the best-run homebuilders cannot withstand 7%+ mortgage rates, as evidenced by NVR's 20% EPS decline and new orders missing consensus by 15%.
“even good operators cannot withstand higher mortgage rates”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
Netflix is going ex-growth as streaming matures and YouTube has won the newer short-form and podcast media formats where Netflix has been slow and stubborn to compete.
“This company is in the process of going X growth”
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap
2026-10-19
HOUSING SECTOR
bearish
The Real Eisman Playbook · video
Mortgage rates at 7.5% have effectively shut down home purchase activity, making the housing sector a large structural negative in the current rate environment
“I would be very nervous about right now is just the whole housing sector”
Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80
All-in monthly housing costs are roughly 50% higher than five years ago due to exploding insurance, utilities, and property taxes on top of mortgage rates, making homes unaffordable; supply is now rising from foreclosures, so prices must come down
“housing prices are going to come down — that's how this ends”
How OpenAI Could Cause a US Recession | TCAF 264
Said again: 2026-10-23 (Steve Eisman (newest))
Half of Oracle's entire backlog is a single customer (OpenAI), so any AI price war, funding crack, or OpenAI revenue deterioration collapses Oracle's growth story — the stock has already fallen from ~330 to ~130 as this risk becomes visible
“Oracle goes right down the toilet because half of Oracle's backlog is just from OpenAI”
How OpenAI Could Cause a US Recession | TCAF 264
Wells Fargo consistently fails to grow revenue across multiple quarters, has a pattern of missing every other quarter, and total revenue was only up 2% year-over-year this quarter, making it the weakest large-bank franchise to own
“if you are interested investing in a large bank, this is not the one I would look at”
Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap
CoreWeave is structurally over-leveraged ($43B market cap vs $35B+ debt + $10B lease obligations, 9% coupon debt now trading at ~90 cents yielding 15%) and cannot compete with hyperscalers' balance sheets, signaling AI debt distress with contagion risk to the…
“the fixed income markets are quickly losing confidence in CoreWeave”
Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap
Said again: 2026-10-19 (The Real Eisman Playbook)
France's debt/GDP at 120% with no political will to cut spending and Le Pen advocating lowering retirement age, while the French-German 10-year spread is at a multi-year high of 140bps — unlike US Treasuries, no large institution is compelled to hold French…
“no one needs to own French sovereign bonds, but many large institutions need to own US treasuries”
Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap
2026-10-16
US LARGE BANK STOCKS
bearish
The Real Eisman Playbook · video
Banks are valued at stretched multiples (2.6–3.4x TBV for JPM/GS/MS) that price in a continued strong investment banking cycle, leaving little margin for error if that cycle turns — the froth since the July peak has not come out enough to create a good entry
“there is just not much margin for error at these valuation levels”
Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap
2026-10-02
long MU / long ANET / long CSCO / long ETN
basket
Michael Burry · video
AI picks-and-shovels infrastructure providers (memory, networking, electrification) capture hyperscaler capex without the concentration risk or cash-flow destruction facing the hyperscalers themselves
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
GE Vernova is the primary beneficiary of surging US electricity demand driven by AI data centers, with gas turbine orders up ~85% and backlog stretching past 2030
“a company like GE Vernova has backlogged like 2035 that's how crazy things are”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
Nvidia has a genuine moat as the dominant GPU maker with no serious competitors, capturing AI capex spending regardless of which LLM provider ultimately wins
“Nvidia, God bless them, and I own the stock”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
Hyperscalers have destroyed their formerly prodigious free cash flow — some now negative — via massive AI data center capex, and their cloud AI revenue is dangerously concentrated in OpenAI and Anthropic alone
“their businesses have they've lost all their cash flow”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
Moody's has a durable, entrenched competitive moat as a ratings agency that customers cannot easily exit, fitting Eisman's core criterion for long holdings
“I like a moat. That's why I own Moody's for example”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
Said again: 2026-10-23 (Steve Eisman (newest))
Visa's global payment-rail network constitutes a durable moat, making it a core long holding under Eisman's moat-driven investment framework
“That's why I own Visa”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
Bitcoin's stated inflation-hedge thesis is self-refuting — it rallies with risk assets and falls on inflation fears, exposing it as a pure speculative vehicle with no coherent investment case
“Bitcoin is worse because it trades inversely to its own thesis”
'Big Short' Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Will Burst
2025-06-13
long GS / long BANKS / long MS
basket
The Compound · video
A deregulatory administration should revive M&A and IPO activity, directly benefiting the advisory and trading revenues of the large-cap investment banks
“own Goldman, own JP Morgan, own Morgan Stanley — that's how you play that”
90d +22.3% · 180d +35.5% · 1y +59.9%
The Next Big Short is the Trade War | TCAF 196
2025-06-13
long V / long MA
basket
The Compound · video
Visa and Mastercard's ubiquitous global payment rails have defeated every competitive challenge for decades, and stable coins will find a niche in remittances without displacing them in traditional payments
“If you want to own something in payments, own Visa or Mastercard — ignore the others”
90d +1.2% · 180d -5.6% · 1y -9.8%
The Next Big Short is the Trade War | TCAF 196
Morgan Stanley's more diversified business model and materially higher ROE versus Goldman Sachs make it the superior long-term holding within large-cap financials, not just a cyclical trading vehicle
“Morgan Stanley has a more durable business model, much more diversified, has higher ROE”
90d +21.7% · 180d +40.6% · 1y +72.4%
The Next Big Short is the Trade War | TCAF 196
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