Investors / stance tracking
What Steve Weiss is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Short Hills Capital Partners
41 dated public stances tracked since 2019-08-07, most recently 2026-11-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Steve Weiss's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Steve Weiss is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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41
tracked stances
32
themes
2
side flips
2026-11-02
last heard
Returns 90d +4.0% 62% correct · 24 calls · 180d +7.5% 62% correct · 21 calls · 1y +13.9% 67% correct · 12 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | GOOGL | owns | -2.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | META | bullish | +7.8% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | GS | bullish | +6.4% | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | FTAI | bullish | +8.5% | -32.8% | — |
| 2026-02-09 | TSM | bullish | +14.1% | +18.2% | — |
| 2026-02-09 | META | bullish | -11.5% | -12.0% | — |
| 2026-02-09 | AMZN | owns | +28.9% | +33.2% | — |
| 2026-01-21 | BABA | bullish | -19.7% | -28.0% | — |
| 2026-01-12 | GOLD | bullish | +3.1% | -13.0% | — |
| 2026-01-12 | BITCOIN | bearish | +22.4% | +30.1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | Big Tech | bullish | -5.9% | +18.1% | — |
| 2025-11-17 | UNH | bullish | -9.2% | +23.8% | — |
| 2025-09-29 | LDOS | bullish | +0.2% | -16.5% | -32.9% |
| 2025-09-29 | IBIT | bullish | -24.0% | -42.0% | -27.2% |
| 2025-04-29 | GS | owns | +32.5% | +45.4% | +68.4% |
| 2025-03-11 | USTS | bullish | -0.1% | +4.5% | +5.3% |
| 2025-03-11 | China Equities | bullish | +1.8% | +9.9% | +2.6% |
| 2024-12-19 | QXO | bullish | -19.0% | +25.0% | +35.2% |
| 2024-03-01 | GOOGL | bullish | +25.5% | +18.9% | +22.2% |
| 2023-09-08 | UBER | bullish | +29.1% | +66.5% | +47.8% |
| 2023-05-26 | NFLX | bullish | +7.4% | +26.2% | +71.3% |
| 2022-11-23 | HON | bullish | -10.1% | -9.1% | -9.7% |
| 2022-10-17 | BANKS | bullish | +0.2% | -20.0% | -18.1% |
| 2019-08-07 | ADC | bullish | +10.3% | +11.7% | +2.3% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Big Tech — bullish2025-12-31 → bearish2026-11-02
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-11-02 | |
| META | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-10-21 | |
| Big Tech | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-11-02 | |
| FTAI | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-21 | |
| GS | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-05-20 | |
| AAPL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-11-02 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-11-02
AI TECH STOCKS
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
AI funding conditions are structurally deteriorating — OpenAI cut its raise by $10B, sovereign and VC funds say they're full — removing the private market valuation umbrella that inflated the sector, signaling a cycle peak
“I think the AI trade is definitely on pause and this is very typical at the peak of a cycle”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 12:02 ET (5 min)
2026-11-02
Big Tech
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Massive securities issuance from $5T+ AI companies has become the primary risk to the AI trade, and multiples will remain under pressure through 2028 as financing constraints dominate over fundamentals
“multiples could remain under pressure as the build out is going to feature more backstops throughout 2028”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 12:07 ET (5 min)
Alphabet is cheap on absolute metrics but its ad model — which drives everything — is now suspect as it loses market share, and historical valuation comparisons are invalid because capex commitments have fundamentally changed its balance sheet, making it…
“their ad model, which drives everything, is now suspect”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 12:12 ET (5 min)
36x forward multiple sits at the 99th percentile since 2008 leaving zero margin for error, and chip-pricing pressure on manufacturing margins is an underappreciated risk at this valuation
“I'm thinking of selling before earnings come out. Because the valuation is just-”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 12:22 ET (5 min)
Private credit fears proved overblown — funds performed well in 2026 — and Apollo's share price has more upside as the market re-rates the asset class away from systemic-risk panic
“Apollo has more benefit to come in its share price from people recognizing that.”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 12:32 ET (5 min)
Caterpillar's data-center-infrastructure narrative is unchanged and the AI capex cycle that drove its premium is nearing its end in terms of equity upside
“I sold Caterpillar. Caterpillar's narrative hasn't changed, right? It's the data center narrative”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 12:07 ET (5 min)
NVIDIA is engaging in circular vendor financing — investing in, guaranteeing, or lending into private AI company debt deals — which mirrors every prior technology capex bubble and historically ends badly for the vendor-financier when the cycle turns
“tons and tons of private deals where NVIDIA is not an investor, not a guarantor of the debt... vendor financing, which hasn't ended well”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 12:07 ET (5 min)
Alphabet has been destroyed to $315 making it extremely cheap relative to its AI deployment progress and cloud growth
“that stock's been destroyed, it's 315. I think that's extremely cheap, given their growth, given how they're employing AI, and given their cloud”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 12:02 ET (5 min)
AMD earnings cannot be justified at current valuations, unlike the mega-cap hyperscalers which trade at historically attractive levels
“When I get to others like AMD, I can't justify the earnings there”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 12:02 ET (5 min)
Meta is demonstrating that AI can increase revenue and cash flow, supporting a permanent core holding while volatility creates opportunities to trade an additional position.
“Continue to trade around an excess position, not touch the core position.”
Dan Ives on CNBC today said "They're spending money like 1980's Rock Stars" (10/21)
FTAI Aviation has substantial upside consistent with Macquarie's newly initiated view that the stock could double within a year.
“I agree it's going to go up quite a bit.”
Dan Ives on CNBC today said "They're spending money like 1980's Rock Stars" (10/21)
2026-10-21
VALUE STOCKS AND CONSUMER STAPLES
bullish
Bloomberg The Close · video
Value-oriented and consumer-staples stocks provide a hedge against economic deceleration while retaining potential upside as AI benefits broaden beyond technology companies.
“Value stocks, consumer staples, etc., a great hedge if the economy starts to decelerate.”
Tesla, IBM & Meta Report Earnings as AI Takes Center Stage
CoreWeave should be avoided because it lacks meaningful EBITDA support and belongs to a capital-intensive group requiring enormous additional funding.
“You don't have an EBITDA multiple on CoreWeave.”
Dan Ives on CNBC today said "They're spending money like 1980's Rock Stars" (10/21)
2026-09-09
short Big Tech / short VOO
basket
CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Correction risk has risen due to elevated oil prices with no geopolitical off-ramp, changed risk/reward dynamics, and no clear catalyst for oil to fall — warrants short exposure to broad market ETFs while keeping cash undeployed
“I admit to being short some QQQs and VOO and not deploying the cash that I've had”
Navigating the risk of a market correction: The Investment Committee weighs in
Google is extremely cheap at current levels and its sustained cloud growth (~80% YoY) justifies continued heavy capex spend to capitalize on AI, where it is one of very few companies with genuine competitive positioning
“I added to Google on Friday because I think that it's extremely cheap”
90d -2.9%
CNBC halftime report 27th July 207 featuring Nvidia Apple Micron
Zuckerberg's visionary leadership gives Meta a structural edge over manager-led Mag 7 peers in AI monetization, and the path is now clear — selling spare compute at a premium to meet massive cloud demand.
“that visionary in my view is going to be ahead of the others as they innovate with AI”
90d +7.8%
The state of the tech trade as SK Hynix opens for trading
Said again: 2026-07-27 (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
Goldman Sachs was named lead underwriter on the SpaceX IPO — potentially the largest US-listed offering ever at 2x Alibaba's $25B raise — implying hundreds of millions to potentially over $1B in fees
“Goldman Sachs. All right, with the news earlier, too”
90d +6.4%
Josh Brown and guests share their final trades on today's Half Time Report
FTAI Aviation is meaningfully off its highs and stands to be a prime beneficiary if its momentum continues
“meaningfully off its highs, and if you believe the momentum continues, this will be a prime beneficiary”
90d +8.5% · 180d -32.8%
Final Trades: FTAI Aviation, Ethan Allen, Teradyne and the QQQ
Meta stands out as genuinely cheap relative to other high-multiple AI-narrative names where valuations are difficult to justify
“I think that Meta is a great value”
90d -11.5% · 180d -12.0%
Halftime Investment Committee debates how far the equity rally can run
Taiwan Semi warrants a premium multiple above historical norms because AI infrastructure spend creates a new valuation paradigm for companies central to that supply chain
“I can justify Taiwan Semi, even though it's far above what the multiples have been”
90d +14.1% · 180d +18.2%
Halftime Investment Committee debates how far the equity rally can run
Fears of AI-driven disruption to Amazon's business are overblown, similar to premature Alphabet-is-dead narratives last year, and the damage thesis may not materialize at all
“I'm not even sure there's going to be damage to Amazon. And apologies, Kevin, but I added to the position this morning”
90d +28.9% · 180d +33.2%
Halftime Investment Committee debates how far the equity rally can run
Momentum has returned to Alibaba and management is expected to execute well
“I think the momentum's returned to and that they'll execute well.”
90d -19.7% · 180d -28.0%
Final Trades: IBM, Alibaba, Nu Holdings and the IYH
Bitcoin's store-of-value and inflation-hedge narrative has been disproven, redirecting those flows into gold as the credible safe-haven alternative and driving a continued price move toward 5,000
“people that were hanging on to the dream of Bitcoin...have seen the lie put to that narrative”
90d +3.1% · 180d -13.0%
The Investment Committee's Reaction to the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge and store of value has been empirically disproven, causing holders to rotate into gold and leaving Bitcoin without its core investment thesis
“the dream of Bitcoin...being inflation hedges or stores of value have seen the lie put to that narrative”
90d +22.4% · 180d +30.1%
The Investment Committee's Reaction to the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
AI-displacing-software narrative creates a persistent overhang with no catalyst for finality, making Microsoft a potential slow-growth utility that retains a market premium but cannot outperform despite cloud strength
“been dead money since July; is this just going to be a utility”
CNBC's 'Halftime Report' Investment Committee detail their 2026 market outlook
2025-12-31
Big Tech
bullish
CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Profitable mega-cap public-market AI names have defensible business models, are the biggest structural beneficiaries of AI, and their valuations are not excessive relative to earnings power — pullback in late 2025 is a re-entry opportunity
“the ones that make money and primarily the public market ones are in pretty decent shape”
90d -5.9% · 180d +18.1%
'Halftime Report' Investment Committee talks positioning your portfolio for 2026
Defensiveness amid continued market volatility makes UnitedHealth a safe harbor
“I'm not really positive in the market right here. I think volatility continues and there's safety there.”
90d -9.2% · 180d +23.8%
Final Trades: UnitedHealth, Thermo Fisher, Monster Beverage and the IYH
Said again: 2026-01-12 (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
Post-runup pullback in Bitcoin is not surprising but the asset will reassert its upward trend, held via iShares Bitcoin Trust
“I'm not surprised by it declining after the big runup. I think it'll reassert that.”
90d -24.0% · 180d -42.0% · 1y -27.2%
Final Trades: Leidos Holdings, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley and the ETHA
Said again: 2025-10-24 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Leidos offers a strong cyber and national security product at a time when Chinese government cyber spending dwarfs US spending, driving sustained demand and multiple expansion for defense contractors
“defense companies continue to see increased valuations”
90d +0.2% · 180d -16.5% · 1y -32.9%
Final Trades: Leidos Holdings, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley and the ETHA
Said again: 2025-11-21 (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
2025-09-12
LARGE CAP EQUITIES
bullish
CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Small caps are a catch-up trade with prior head fakes; large caps continue to work and if the data breaks down the speculative small cap side rolls over even with rate cuts
“Follow me and stay big”
'Halftime Report' Investment Committee debate their rate cut playbooks
Goldman Sachs beat analyst EPS expectations by $1.77 per share with $15.06B in sales, justifying an aggressive post-earnings position
“went all in on Goldman Sachs Group Inc., taking advantage of its impressive quarterly earnings report”
90d +32.5% · 180d +45.4% · 1y +68.4%
Qualcomm Earnings Boost: Top Trades from Halftime Report
2025-03-11
China Equities
bullish
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
China is undertaking fiscal expansion, giving any country more exposed to China than the US an escape from US policy pain; after a decade out of favor the market looks safer than the US at current levels
“there's something to say about investing in China right now”
90d +1.8% · 180d +9.9% · 1y +2.6%
After the Selloff | Bloomberg Surveillance | March 11, 2025
Policy uncertainty and economic weakness are pushing yields down, and the Trump administration is not opposed to lower rates — they serve as an offset to equity declines and enable mortgage refinancing to support the consumer
“I do think yields are going down and I don't think the administration minds that”
90d -0.1% · 180d +4.5% · 1y +5.3%
After the Selloff | Bloomberg Surveillance | March 11, 2025
QXO (Brad Jacobs' vehicle) is making acquisitions that will drive significant value creation
“we didn't make it yesterday because it was only up 60 cents”
90d -19.0% · 180d +25.0% · 1y +35.2%
Final Trades: Cheniere Energy, QXO, First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity and Shake Shack
Google is extremely cheap on a valuation basis relative to its quality
“Google to me it's extremely cheap”
90d +25.5% · 180d +18.9% · 1y +22.2%
Final Trades: Citigroup, Google and COWZ
Uber has evolved into a free cash flow story and is returning capital through buybacks, a transformation few anticipated
“They're going to buy back more stock. Who would have thought it would be a free cash flow stor[y]”
90d +29.1% · 180d +66.5% · 1y +47.8%
Final Trades: Uber, Hess & more
Content spend is reaching a fixed-cost plateau (~$17-18B) while revenue scales to ~$40B via ad-tier expansion and password-share monetization, collapsing cost-of-revenue from 60% to ~50% and driving ~$10B in free cash flow that supports a ~$500 price target…
“I think that could be you know 500 stock versus maybe 280 today”
90d +7.4% · 180d +26.2% · 1y +71.3%
Netflix: The Original - [Business Breakdowns, EP. 86]
Honeywell is positioned in the right place for the automation of manufacturing with a strong CEO, making it a hold despite a stretched valuation
“I like the fact they're focused on automating manufacturing going forward and I think they've got a phenomenal CEO”
90d -10.1% · 180d -9.1% · 1y -9.7%
How to play Deere and industrials, with the ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee
Bank of America delivered a stoic earnings beat driven by better-than-expected net interest income and loan growth, and the stock is cheap well off its highs
“there are stocks to buy well off its highs, a cheap stock here”
90d +0.2% · 180d -20.0% · 1y -18.1%
‘Halftime Report’ investment committee's tech plays
2022-01-06
POAHY
bullish
CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Porsche has established price momentum that is expected to continue
“momentum's been there i think it'll continue”
Final Trades: Salesforce, Morgan Stanley, Porsche & more
2019-08-07
ADC
bullish
Delivering Alpha · video
Agree Realty is a defensive REIT with stable tenants including CBS, offering downside protection in a volatile market
“which is defensive and guess what one of the biggest tenants is CBS”
90d +10.3% · 180d +11.7% · 1y +2.3%
CNBC's Delivering Alpha returns this September
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