Investors / stance tracking
What Keith Mccullough is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCEO & Founder, Hedgeye Risk Management
17 dated public stances tracked since 2019-08-23, most recently 2026-10-19. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Keith Mccullough's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Keith Mccullough is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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17
tracked stances
13
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-19
last heard
Returns 90d +0.9% 33% correct · 6 calls · 180d -1.9% 67% correct · 6 calls · 1y +9.4% 67% correct · 6 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-17 | EPOL | owns | +15.0% | +15.9% | +51.1% |
| 2022-04-25 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -2.6% | -22.9% | -9.4% |
| 2019-08-23 | USTS | owns | -1.4% | +0.6% | +8.8% |
| 2019-08-23 | T | bearish | -9.5% | -13.4% | +8.3% |
| 2019-08-23 | GOLD | bullish | -4.3% | +5.3% | +25.5% |
| 2019-08-23 | ENERGY | bullish | +8.2% | +2.9% | -28.1% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2022-04-25 → bearish2026-10-19
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-14 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-19 | |
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-19 | |
| ENERGY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-08-23 | |
| EPOL | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-17 | |
| GXG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-17 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-19
short High Yield / short Investment Grade Credit
basket
Danielle DiMartino Booth (newest) · video
Rising corporate bankruptcies and continued rate hikes are compressing credit simultaneously across high yield and investment grade — an historically unusual joint correlation signaling broad credit stress worth shorting across the entire corporate bond…
“I also short HYG, LQD, investment grade credit and HYG — I've never shorted both and had the same correlation at the same time”
The Bankruptcy Crisis Wall Street Is Ignoring | Hedgeye Investing Summit
Margin compression from cost pass-through failure, ongoing rate hikes, and deteriorating earnings make levered, low-quality companies across industrials the best single-stock shorts into a continued slowdown
“I want to stay with my shitty company, bad balance sheets, short my industrial shorts”
The Bankruptcy Crisis Wall Street Is Ignoring | Hedgeye Investing Summit
Discord among Fed officials over forward guidance sustains structurally elevated Treasury bond volatility, and once MOVE crosses key thresholds it reflects credit stress beyond rates alone
“I'm long actually bond market volatility which has been movement on the move”
The Bankruptcy Crisis Wall Street Is Ignoring | Hedgeye Investing Summit
2026-10-19
Long Dur Treasuries
short
Danielle DiMartino Booth (newest) · video
Fed continues hiking into a slowing economy, pushing long-duration Treasury yields higher and bond prices lower
“I've been short long-term bonds”
The Bankruptcy Crisis Wall Street Is Ignoring | Hedgeye Investing Summit
In a quad-4 credit-stress scenario, EM sovereigns and corporates issue emergency debt in dollars, driving dollar demand; history shows no precedent for the dollar failing to break out in such an environment
“the dollar has been a great long... no history to say that the dollar doesn't break out mucho from here”
The Bankruptcy Crisis Wall Street Is Ignoring | Hedgeye Investing Summit
2026-10-14
PFIX
owns
Jim Bianco (newest) · video
Fed policy uncertainty — hike probability swinging from 70% to 22% in a single week — is driving extreme bond market volatility that PFIX, a bond-volatility ETF, directly captures
“we're long this ETF that's essentially a bet on bond market volatility... this thing has gone vertical”
Hedgeye Investing Summit Fall 2026 | Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research
2026-10-14
RATE-SENSITIVE EQUITIES (HOUSING, UTILITIES)
short
Jim Bianco (newest) · video
In a quad-2 environment where both growth and inflation are accelerating simultaneously, rising bond yields compress rate-sensitive sectors and the relationship is straightforwardly exploitable
“we're short rate sensitive companies like again housing utilities”
Hedgeye Investing Summit Fall 2026 | Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research
Dollar strength and rising rates create a structural headwind for gold with no supporting correlation, requiring both trends to reverse before gold can resume its uptrend
“gold is bearish trend on our model which it currently is because interest rates are bullish trend”
Hedgeye Investing Summit Fall 2026 | Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research
2025-04-17
GXG
owns
Meb Faber · video
Colombia went from the most expensive emerging market in the world (Shiller PE ~40 in 2014) to arguably the cheapest country globally after a ~70% drawdown, then ran five straight Quad 1 quarters of economic acceleration confirming the bottom
“I'm only long two emerging markets at this point. And one is Colombia and one is Poland”
Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2025 | Meb Faber, co-founder & CIO of Cambria IM
Poland exited back-to-back Quad 4 economic contraction in Q3 2023 and ran five consecutive Quad 1 quarters of accelerating growth, with the equity market bottoming ahead of the turn and remaining extremely cheap on valuation
“I'm only long two emerging markets at this point. And one is Colombia and one is Poland”
90d +15.0% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +51.1%
Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2025 | Meb Faber, co-founder & CIO of Cambria IM
2022-04-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Michael Green · video
Entering quad-4 disinflation as leading indicators (ISM new orders, MBA purchase applications, freight) roll over sharply, the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy and is likely to stop well short of the ~9 hikes the front-end is pricing, implying rates…
“as you enter quad 4 disinflation you would have falling interest rates”
90d -2.6% · 180d -22.9% · 1y -9.4%
Michael Green & Keith McCullough | Hedgeye Investing Summit Spring 2022
Quad 4 (growth and inflation slowing simultaneously) combined with the largest recorded net-short futures position across the curve and record pension/household underweights creates a structural squeeze as the Fed pivots from hikes to cuts
“long two years or short yields euro dollars five years ten years the whole thing”
90d -1.4% · 180d +0.6% · 1y +8.8%
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
2019-08-23
HY
bearish
Raoul Pal · video
Corporate credit-to-GDP is at a record while HY OAS sits near 400bps — the most complacent point in the credit cycle — and earnings growth decelerating from 26% YoY in Quad 3 will force spreads toward 500–800bps wide
“400 over on high-yield OAS could be five six eight hundred wide”
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
AT&T carries an enormous debt load entering the late credit cycle precisely when earnings deceleration and spread widening will penalize the most leveraged investment-grade borrowers hardest
“somewhere down the track I'm very nervous about AT&T”
90d -9.5% · 180d -13.4% · 1y +8.3%
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
Real yields are topping at cycle highs and beginning to fall as the Fed pivots, while the dollar enters a topping process — gold has already priced the real-yield signal and momentum is confirming via quantitative breakout
“I'm very bullish on gold for the first time in a while”
90d -4.3% · 180d +5.3% · 1y +25.5%
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
2019-08-23
HOTEL/LODGING STOCKS
bearish
Raoul Pal · video
Late business cycle (Quad 4 to Quad 3) means rate-of-change of revenues and profits for cyclical lodging names will decelerate into the toughest year-over-year earnings comparisons, compressing multiples
“no way on this side of the Sun that he's going to not be short hotel stocks”
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
A Fed pivot to cuts triggers the inverse-dollar correlation that makes energy the top-one and top-two sector pivots off the lows in a Quad 3 reflation; having been short commodities, the opening trade is to cover and get long the move
“oil and energy are the number one and two pivots off the lows”
90d +8.2% · 180d +2.9% · 1y -28.1%
🔴The Keys to Understanding Macro Risk (w/ Keith McCullough & Raoul Pal) | Real Vision Classics
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