The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Brent Donnelly's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Brent Donnelly is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2026-07-08
BITCOIN
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin has exhausted its narrative cycle—store of value, peer-to-peer cash, digital gold, risk asset, inflation hedge—none of which fully panned out, leaving no clear next catalyst to drive a new bull run, particularly as retail has seen the playbook enough…
“you used up all the cool narratives—what's the next thing that's going to convince people that Bitcoin's going to go higher”
90d -37.4%
Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly
2025-07-30
GOLD
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Gold was priced for extreme US policy failure scenarios — no coupon issuance, immediate aggressive Fed cuts — that did not materialize; the debasement premium must unwind before gold becomes attractive again roughly $200 lower
“I don't love gold up here”
90d -21.1% · 180d -54.4% · 1y -25.3%
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting
2025-07-30
USDJPY
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Fed hawkishness widens rate differential vs. a persistently cautious BOJ; market is still net short USD/JPY so a move above 150 forces CTA short-covering, with potential Ishiba resignation adding a bullish kicker
“I'm just long dollar yen looking for 151 152”
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting
2025-07-30
ETH
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Corporate crypto treasury buying — the key recent demand driver especially for Ethereum — is an insider exit-liquidity scheme akin to the ICO, SPAC, and NFT crazes; those stocks have stopped going up, signaling the game is over and removing the marginal buyer
“especially for Ethereum, I think is going to dry up now because the joke's over”
90d -7.4% · 180d +22.7% · 1y +48.3%
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting
2025-01-22
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The Chinese government explicitly uses equity markets as a confidence barometer and will buy on dips but does not sell on rallies, creating an asymmetric return distribution skewed to the upside regardless of the macro backdrop
“if Chinese stocks go down then the home team comes in and buys...if Chinese stocks go up the home team doesn't sell”
Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly
2025-01-22
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
US economic data momentum is softening at the margin and yields are likely a touch elevated; historically TLT rose on almost every day Trump announced tariffs because the confidence shock outweighs the one-time price increase, so bonds are the better…
“TLT went up like almost every single one of those times...yields probably are a little high”
90d -0.2% · 180d +0.4% · 1y +4.7%
Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly
2025-01-22
USD
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Dollar positioning is at one of the most extreme long levels Donnelly has seen since 1995, and a slower/scaled tariff path (moderates winning in the Trump cabinet) removes the shock-and-awe catalyst needed to sustain the move, so the default path is a drift…
“the positioning in the dollar is Extreme...the default is that it's just going to dribble lower”
90d +7.5% · 180d +7.3% · 1y +4.5%
Why FX Volatility Will Dominate Markets In 2025 | Brent Donnelly
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