The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jacob Shapiro's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jacob Shapiro is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2026-07-29
ENERGY
bearish
Marko Papic · video
Renewables are scaling and countries are in a race to provide the cheapest energy, making high-cost energy producers structurally vulnerable as prices turn deflationary by the 2030s
“I assume energy will be deflationary by the 2030s”
90d -17.0%
Four Ex-Stratfor Analysts Reunite to Predict How the World Ends
2026-07-09
OIL
neutral
CNBC International · video
Despite active Strait of Hormuz disruptions, diversified global supply sources and sharply reduced Chinese oil imports have absorbed the geopolitical shock, capping Brent near $75-80 rather than the widely feared $150-200 scenario
“as long as we're arguing about $5 a barrel here, $10 a barrel here, I'm shrugging my shoulders”
The key geopolitical risk factor for the markets isn't Iran, it's Russia: Analyst
2026-03-17
Commodities Broad
bullish
Marko Papic · video
The Hormuz closure is disrupting 20-25% of fertilizer supply during active planting season when inventories are thin, creating a food-price shock that will ripple through into political instability 2-3 years out — the same transmission mechanism as 2007-08…
“we're just going to have less food and higher prices as a result of this”
90d -1.9% · 180d +15.3%
How Trump Ends the Iran War | Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic
2025-12-29
LNG
bearish
Marko Papic · video
A structural LNG supply glut from Australia, Canada, Qatar, Mozambique, and the US — with no matching import-side build-out — will normalize European energy prices in 2026, ending the de-industrialization narrative for Germany and Central/Eastern Europe
“this is the year that energy prices for Europe start to normalize”
5 Geopolitical Shocks Coming in 2026 (China, Trump, & War) | Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
2025-12-29
ROBOTICS EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Robotics is positioned to be 2026's dominant market narrative, riding the coattails of AI hype while tapping into migration and protectionism anxieties, giving institutional and retail money a clean new story to pile into as the pure-AI bubble deflates
“I'm going to play with robotics being that thing...it's so neat that it just feels like it's obvious”
5 Geopolitical Shocks Coming in 2026 (China, Trump, & War) | Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
2025-06-23
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
The one big beautiful bill adds trillions to the deficit without meaningful near-term cuts, US interest payments already rival the defense budget, and foreign investors are already fleeing treasuries — bond market will eventually force a reckoning
“Is the United States heading towards a major debt crisis in the future? That's a reasonable question to ask”
90d -3.4% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -3.9%
Jacob Shapiro: U.S. Bombs Iran, Now What? — Trump's Gamble, WW3 Fears & A Global Power Shift
2025-06-23
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
US geopolitical unpredictability, fiscal irresponsibility (one big beautiful bill adding $2-3T to deficit), and erosion of alliances are causing the dollar to lose its safe-haven status, evidenced by Swiss Franc and Singapore dollar outperforming USD
“the dollar and the US treasury is no longer a safe haven asset”
90d -0.2% · 180d -2.4% · 1y -7.8%
Jacob Shapiro: U.S. Bombs Iran, Now What? — Trump's Gamble, WW3 Fears & A Global Power Shift
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