Founder & managing partner, The Analyst
3 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-26, most recently 2024-10-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Mark Hiley's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Mark Hiley is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2024-10-26 | ITM | bearish | -0.2% | +1.1% | -5.4% |
| 2024-10-26 | ENERGY | bullish | +3.2% | -6.0% | +2.3% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| ENERGY | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2024-10-26 |
| ITM | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2024-10-26 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2024-10-26
long PRY / long NKT / long NEX
basket
Business Breakdowns · video
HVDC cable and grid-kit suppliers Prysmian, NKT, and Nexans are effectively sold out to end of decade as grid operators have doubled/tripled capex budgets for interconnection and energy transition, creating a multi-year super-cycle in a consolidated…
“all the companies that supply power grids are becoming sold out at least until the end of a decade”
Siemens Energy: Winds of Change - [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]
2024-10-26
ENERGY
bullish
Business Breakdowns · video
Grid Technologies is capacity-constrained with a tripled backlog and 30%+ revenue growth, Gas Service runs 20%+ service margins on a decades-long installed base, and a wind business turnaround represents a 2B+ EUR profit inflection — all at a 20B EUR market…
“you could have a couple of billion coming from gas and power you could have a profitable wind business so that's about a 2 billion Euro inflection”
90d +3.2% · 180d -6.0% · 1y +2.3%
Siemens Energy: Winds of Change - [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]
2024-10-26
ITM
bearish
Business Breakdowns · video
Hydrogen economics are structurally unworkable at scale without large subsidies given the energy cost of production, storage, and transport, meaning the hype-driven valuations in European listed hydrogen names are unsustainable
“it's very difficult to understand a road map to scale that business up without large subsidies”
90d -0.2% · 180d +1.1% · 1y -5.4%
Siemens Energy: Winds of Change - [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]
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