The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Kao's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Kao is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2025-02-13
US EQUITY MARKET BETA
bearish
Wealthion · video
US equity valuations offer little margin of safety and hidden beta is pervasive, meaning passive index exposure could inflict severe drawdowns at an uncertain but approaching turning point in the macro cycle
“equity markets from a valuation standpoint don't leave a lot of margin of safety”
The Most Uncertain Macro Outlook in Years | Michael Kao
2025-02-13
OIL
bearish
Wealthion · video
Trump's policy framework — Saudi security guarantees in exchange for production increases, domestic deregulation to lower shale break-evens, and geopolitical pressure on Iran/Russia — is designed to push oil to the 50s-60s, which Kao views as the linchpin…
“oil is the lynchpin of everything”
90d +10.0% · 180d +4.5% · 1y +0.2%
The Most Uncertain Macro Outlook in Years | Michael Kao
2025-02-13
EUROZONE EQUITIES
bearish
Wealthion · video
Europe faces structural disadvantages versus the US — adverse demographics, self-inflicted energy vulnerability from poor energy policy, and the absence of political union that would enable labor mobility and economic dynamism — making it a structural…
“the Euro Zone is at a huge structural disadvantage”
The Most Uncertain Macro Outlook in Years | Michael Kao
2024-11-25
short GOLD / short DEFENSE / short Long Dur Treasuries
basket
Forward Guidance · video
Assets priced for eternal geopolitical conflict — gold, defense stocks, and long-dated treasuries — face a 'treacherous path' if Trump's anti-forever-wars platform produces a peace breakout, unwinding the geopolitical risk premium embedded in all three
“what if the unthinkable happens and there's a breakout of peace... treacherous path for a number of assets”
90d -2.8% · 180d -11.7% · 1y -30.7%
Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao
2024-11-25
USD
owns
Forward Guidance · video
US economy remains the strongest globally and as the Fed's aggressive cuts greenlight a global competitive cutting cycle that becomes a 'global bait and switch' — where the US pauses but other CBs keep cutting — the dollar strengthens while China faces…
“I increased my USD CNH position when it dropped to like 699”
90d +1.0% · 180d -4.5% · 1y -1.8%
Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao
2024-11-25
COPPER
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Procyclical commodities are flashing a cautionary sign as copper's dramatic weakening reflects China's economic deterioration, which Kao views as secular rather than cyclical given the collapse of the real estate growth model and export headwinds from rising…
“procyclical commodities are still flashing kind of a cautionary sign... look at copper”
90d -9.5% · 180d -14.3% · 1y -20.2%
Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao
2024-09-14
long CLO / short High Yield
pair
Wealthion · video
Long CLO equity closed-end funds at ~20% yield for positive carry against a short in HYG, which is at all-time tight spreads, as a credit cap-structure arb that funds the hedge while expressing a view that high-yield is overvalued
Weekly Recap: Inflation Comeback? Fed Rate Cut, Crypto's Future & FIRE
2024-09-10
long CLO / short High Yield
hedge
Wealthion · video
Long high-yielding CLO equity closed-end funds for ~20% carry against short HYG at all-time credit tights creates a spread arb that generates positive carry while hedging against a credit-spread widening that Kao expects as macro conditions deteriorate
“I'm long some CLO equity closed-end funds that are yielding almost 20%... I use my positive carry to also short the HYG index, which is on all-time tights”
Fed Rate Cuts Will Trigger Inflation & Market Kaos | Michael Kao
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