What Michael Kao is saying
Founder, Akanthos Capital Management
5 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-10, most recently 2025-02-13. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Kao's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Kao is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
2025-02-13
US EQUITY MARKET BETA
bearish
Wealthion · video
US equity valuations offer little margin of safety and hidden beta is pervasive, meaning passive index exposure could inflict severe drawdowns at an uncertain but approaching turning point in the macro cycle
“equity markets from a valuation standpoint don't leave a lot of margin of safety”
The Most Uncertain Macro Outlook in Years | Michael Kao
2024-11-25
USD
owns
Forward Guidance · video
US economy remains the strongest globally and as the Fed's aggressive cuts greenlight a global competitive cutting cycle that becomes a 'global bait and switch' — where the US pauses but other CBs keep cutting — the dollar strengthens while China faces…
“I increased my USD CNH position when it dropped to like 699”
90d +1.0% · 180d -4.5% · 1y -1.8%
Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao
2024-11-25
short GOLD / short DEFENSE / short Long Dur Treasuries
basket
Forward Guidance · video
Assets priced for eternal geopolitical conflict — gold, defense stocks, and long-dated treasuries — face a 'treacherous path' if Trump's anti-forever-wars platform produces a peace breakout, unwinding the geopolitical risk premium embedded in all three
“what if the unthinkable happens and there's a breakout of peace... treacherous path for a number of assets”
90d -2.8% · 180d -11.7% · 1y -30.7%
Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao
2024-09-14
long CLO / short High Yield
pair
Wealthion · video
Long CLO equity closed-end funds at ~20% yield for positive carry against a short in HYG, which is at all-time tight spreads, as a credit cap-structure arb that funds the hedge while expressing a view that high-yield is overvalued
Weekly Recap: Inflation Comeback? Fed Rate Cut, Crypto's Future & FIRE
2024-09-10
long CLO / short High Yield
hedge
Wealthion · video
Long high-yielding CLO equity closed-end funds for ~20% carry against short HYG at all-time credit tights creates a spread arb that generates positive carry while hedging against a credit-spread widening that Kao expects as macro conditions deteriorate
“I'm long some CLO equity closed-end funds that are yielding almost 20%... I use my positive carry to also short the HYG index, which is on all-time tights”
Fed Rate Cuts Will Trigger Inflation & Market Kaos | Michael Kao
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