Investors / stance tracking
What Shawn O Malley is saying
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Media
11 dated public stances tracked since 2025-02-01, most recently 2026-10-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Shawn O Malley's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Shawn O Malley is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
10
themes
0
side flips
2026-10-26
last heard
Returns 90d -3.0% 50% correct · 6 calls · 180d +15.3% 67% correct · 6 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | TTD | bearish | +22.5% | +49.1% | — |
| 2026-04-19 | RDDT | bullish | +9.2% | -6.1% | — |
| 2026-04-19 | NFLX | owns | -28.7% | -25.6% | — |
| 2026-04-19 | FICO | bearish | -18.8% | +27.5% | — |
| 2026-04-19 | ABNB | bullish | +0.9% | +21.0% | — |
| 2025-02-01 | ULTA | bullish | -3.0% | +26.2% | +63.1% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-10-26 | |
| ABNB | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-04-19 | |
| EXXRF | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-01-02 | |
| GOOGL | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-09-20 | |
| NFLX | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-04-19 | |
| RDDT | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-04-19 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
FICO's pricing power has transitioned from a durable advantage to a regulatory and valuation risk, and at 40+ times earnings there is no margin of safety to absorb a multiple compression
“pricing power really turned from an advantage to a risk... that's why we pass on it”
GE Aerospace: The Ultimate Compounder?
Alphabet's search business proved resilient against AI disruption while Google Cloud inflected to profitability and is now growing at 63-82% YoY with a $500B backlog, making the original fear-driven discount a buying opportunity even if the stock is now…
“this is a company that is a real tight end and that's to say in 5 to 10 more years I think Alphabet will have a much higher intrinsic value”
Alphabet (GOOGL): The Megacap That Still Might Be Underrated
Uber's free cash flow tripled to ~$10B while the stock is flat, operating margins swung 55 percentage points to +12%, AV competitive risk touches only ~9% of near-term profits, advertising ($2B+ run rate, 50%+ growth) and Uber One (50M members) structurally…
“the market is mispricing one of the best businesses we own or the robots are really coming for our largest holding”
Uber Stock: Just Keeps Getting Cheaper
Said again: 2026-09-20 (Yet Another Value Podcast)
Reddit executed one of the fastest margin inflections on record — net income margin swung from −37% in 2024 to +34% in Q4 2025 — driven by operating leverage on 70% revenue growth, international user expansion at 3× the US rate, and a structurally defensible…
“I don't know if I've ever seen such a margin turnaround for a company in one year or two years”
90d +9.2% · 180d -6.1%
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
2026-04-19
UMG
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Universal Music Group owns ~30% of global recorded music and publishing rights in a self-reinforcing three-player oligopoly; perpetual royalty streams carry near-zero marginal cost and 80%+ free cash flow conversion, while social media virality gives the…
“once you own the rights to a song, you own a perpetual royalty stream with almost zero marginal cost of production”
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
Aggressive price hikes (from $0.60 to $10 per score since 2018) drew regulatory response — FHFA approved Vantage Score 4.0 as a government-mortgage alternative in 2025, ending FICO's exclusive mandate — making the primary growth driver politically exposed and…
“once you introduce such a risk, the market will not get back to give you a multiple which you had before”
90d -18.8% · 180d +27.5%
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
Airbnb's two-sided marketplace drives direct brand traffic (avoiding Booking.com's 'Google tax'), its supply is largely exclusive to the platform, valuation has normalized from 100× operating cash flow to mid-20s EV/EBIT, and an embedded experiences and…
“trading at a mid-20s multiple on EV/EBIT — seems like a very reasonable price”
90d +0.9% · 180d +21.0%
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
Agency relationships are fracturing in real time — Publicist, WPP, and Dentsu have all walked back or restricted Trade Desk usage — which undermines the independence moat and suggests the 20% take rate is unsustainable, meaning intrinsic value has declined…
“the company's intrinsic value has declined — it hasn't just been linearly compounding”
90d +22.5% · 180d +49.1%
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
Netflix benefits from secularly rising content consumption as a content-agnostic subscription platform without the IP-cycle volatility of Disney or Nintendo, and is already a full portfolio holding that Shawn would add to rather than initiating Nintendo given…
“I would probably again rather just increase our position in Netflix than specifically bet on Nintendo”
90d -28.7% · 180d -25.6%
Portfolio Review: Thoughts on Airbnb, Reddit, FICO, and co.
2026-01-02
EXXRF
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Exor trades at a 60% discount to NAV versus its historical 25-30% range, meaning investors can buy Ferrari exposure (Exor's Ferrari stake alone exceeds Exor's entire market cap) plus an eclectic portfolio of CNH, Stellantis, Philips, Juventus, and VC bets…
“even if things go noticeably worse than they have in the past you can still plausibly earn double-digit returns from here”
Top Stocks for 2026 w/ Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, & Clay Finck
Universal beauty retailer with 27% average ROIC and a dominant 44-million-member loyalty program trades at a below-historical P/E of 16-17, offering ~10-12% expected returns from 7-8% earnings growth plus a 3-4% buyback yield as competitive fears prove…
“I do think there's still meat on the bone here, my fair value estimate for the company is about $450 per share”
90d -3.0% · 180d +26.2% · 1y +63.1%
Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 | Ulta Beauty, VeriSign, and Lifco | Bull & Bear Discussion (TIP696)
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