Founder & managing partner, Massif Capital
6 dated public stances tracked since 2022-12-15, most recently 2022-12-15. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Will Thomson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Will Thomson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2022-12-15
OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS
bearish
We Study Billionaires · video
Oil companies are priced for a perfect $65-70/barrel scenario with no probability weight on a $40 oil scenario, which has occurred approximately eight times over the past decade — probability-weighted DCFs at that downside destroy most equity values.
“everything looks to be priced at sort of like a perfect 6570 barrel of oil right now”
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
2022-12-15
OEM
bearish
We Study Billionaires · video
Wind/solar OEM manufacturers like Vestas run net income margins of 4-5% that occasionally go negative, and Chinese polysilicon producers barely earn money despite subsidized inputs, yet all carry valuations inflated by energy-transition enthusiasm that the…
“there are a lot of opportunities on the short side because there's a lot of enthusiasm about these things that the valuations don't justify”
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
2022-12-15
PTH
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Polaris Infrastructure (PTH, TSX) operates run-of-river hydro, solar and wind assets in South America with fully funded, permitted and contracted operations; South American geography — mountains and rainforest separating communities — structurally favors…
“it's probably a double from here I think relatively low risk the assets are mostly on the ground operating assets already”
90d -7.7% · 180d -0.2% · 1y -5.3%
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
2022-12-15
ALPHAMIN RESOURCES
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
Alphamin operates the world's highest-grade tin mine in the DRC and tin is structurally critical for all electronics (soldering) and electrification infrastructure (grid, EVs, robotics), while the universe of investable tin miners is small enough to make the…
“tin is a critical metal for all electronics it's basically the glue that keeps electronics together”
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
2022-12-15
LAC
owns
We Study Billionaires · video
Lithium Americas is ramping from zero production to major lithium producer status by 2028-2030 via the Cauchari mine in South America and Thacker Pass in Nevada, positioning it to benefit from the structural battery-metals supply deficit created by a decade…
“they're going to go from being a no one to a major in the industry in about 10 years”
90d -11.6% · 180d -7.3% · 1y -52.5%
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
2022-12-15
COPPER
bullish
We Study Billionaires · video
A copper mine discovered today takes 15 years to bring into production, meaning the copper needed for the energy transition in 2030 required discovery in 2015 — investment has not occurred, creating a structural supply bottleneck that the market has not…
“the copper that we need in 2030 someone needed to figure out where it was in 2015 now that investment those investments in mining...have not occurred”
90d +4.0% · 180d +3.4% · 1y +5.1%
Are Real & Hard Assets Better? | Energy, Metals and Mines w/ Will Thomson (TIP504)
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