Investors / stance tracking
What Brent Johnson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCEO, Santiago Capital
55 dated public stances tracked since 2019-01-28, most recently 2026-10-20. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Brent Johnson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Brent Johnson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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55
tracked stances
24
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-20
last heard
Returns 90d -0.8% 62% correct · 26 calls · 180d +0.2% 61% correct · 23 calls · 1y +2.7% 58% correct · 19 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +20.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | DEFENSE | bullish | -9.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-14 | USD | bullish | +0.7% | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | SPX | owns | +14.3% | +17.4% | — |
| 2026-04-01 | Em Equities | bearish | -20.2% | -18.0% | — |
| 2026-03-05 | USD | bullish | +1.4% | +2.7% | — |
| 2026-03-05 | GOLD | bullish | -12.5% | -14.9% | — |
| 2025-08-15 | USD | bullish | +2.6% | +1.5% | +6.3% |
| 2025-08-15 | SPX | bearish | -4.7% | -8.2% | -21.4% |
| 2024-12-31 | USD | bullish | -3.0% | -8.6% | -5.0% |
| 2024-09-06 | SPX | bearish | -12.6% | -8.6% | -21.6% |
| 2024-09-06 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +4.4% | +7.0% | +5.9% |
| 2024-09-06 | China Equities | bearish | -19.1% | -46.4% | -59.2% |
| 2024-08-08 | USTS | bearish | +2.3% | +1.6% | -2.9% |
| 2024-08-08 | USD | bullish | +3.4% | +7.3% | +0.2% |
| 2024-08-08 | GOLD | bullish | +9.7% | +17.2% | +39.7% |
| 2023-09-03 | USD | bullish | +0.4% | +2.1% | +3.1% |
| 2023-09-03 | SPX | bullish | +2.0% | +15.0% | +24.6% |
| 2023-09-03 | Em Equities | bearish | +0.1% | -4.9% | -11.0% |
| 2019-02-09 | GOLD | bullish | -1.8% | +14.7% | +19.9% |
| 2019-02-09 | Big Tech | bullish | +10.1% | +12.2% | +38.9% |
| 2019-01-28 | USTS | bullish | +2.4% | +6.7% | +10.9% |
| 2019-01-28 | USD | bullish | +3.1% | +4.4% | +5.9% |
| 2019-01-28 | SPX | bullish | +11.9% | +15.4% | +26.3% |
| 2019-01-28 | OIL | bearish | -20.8% | -7.9% | -2.7% |
| 2019-01-28 | Em Equities | bearish | -5.3% | -2.8% | -7.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 8 | 8 bullish | 2026-09-21 | |
| SPX | 6 | 4 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-09 | |
| GOLD | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-08-09 | |
| USTS | 4 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 2 neutral | 2026-10-20 | |
| Em Equities | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-04-01 | |
| CASH | 2 | 2 neutral | 2026-04-01 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-20
long NVDA / long TSM / long GOOGL / long META
basket
Brent Johnson · video
AI is a national security imperative in the US-China power competition and a handful of dominant AI infrastructure companies will survive the dotcom-style shakeout and own the next decade, justifying holding despite 'ridiculous' valuations
“I think AI is a huge part of this power competition... there's first place and then there's extinction”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
2026-10-20
long CIRCLE / long FIGURE / long ETH
basket
Brent Johnson · video
Tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure represent a structural shift in finance that the US has co-opted to extend dollar dominance; companies building the digital asset rails will capture value even though specific winners remain uncertain
“we just want to have exposure to the arena”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
Deglobalization and the US-China national security competition will drive one of the largest waves of capital into US defense and domestic supply chain rebuilding over the next 5-10 years, accessed via private credit and stock options
“one of the biggest waves of capital flowing into that arena that any of us have ever seen over the next 5 or 10 years”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
Short-term US paper yields 4-5% with no duration risk in an environment where rates are likely to stay high or go higher, making it an attractive liquid reserve while waiting for valuation dislocations elsewhere
“we get paid a pretty good return anywhere from four to 5% to sit in short-term fixed income”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
2026-10-20
US LARGE-CAP EQUITIES
bullish
Brent Johnson · video
Higher US rates attract global capital inflows that migrate out of fixed income into US equity risk assets, making moderate rate hikes stimulative rather than bearish, while simultaneously draining liquidity from the rest of the world
“capital would migrate into US dollar risk assets most namely US equities”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
2026-10-20
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA EQUITIES
bullish
Brent Johnson · video
As deglobalization redirects manufacturing away from China and Asia, Central and South America are the natural beneficiary and represent a long-term value opportunity in historically underinvested regions whose timing may finally have arrived
“I think Central America and South America might be a good place to do that”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
2026-10-20
GRAINS (CORN, WHEAT)
owns
Brent Johnson · video
Grain commodities held as an inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier in a fiat debasement environment; expected to perform well in a highly inflationary scenario
“we have exposure to some grains the commodities the corn wheat um we think that has the potential to go higher”
Brent Johnson: Why FED Rate Hikes Can Send Markets Higher
2026-10-08
long USD / short UNKNOWN
pair
Macro Voices · video
Long USD / short CAD is an attractive carry-plus-appreciation trade because rising US rates relative to Canada mean you earn an extra yield spread while also capturing CAD depreciation as global capital flows to the dominant dollar safe-haven.
“I would much rather own US dollars than own Canadian dollars”
MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housewives
2026-10-08
long USD / short UNKNOWN
pair
Macro Voices · video
US rates are higher than Canada's, US dollar is attracting global capital flows, so a long USD / short CAD position captures both currency appreciation and a positive carry from the yield differential
“you get an extra percent on the yields that you're earning in dollars”
MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housewives
2026-10-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Brent Johnson · video
Rates are structurally headed higher globally and US bond prices will continue falling, though the speculative short in 10-year futures near 25-year record highs raises the odds of a counter-trend bounce
“I have been a bond bear for a long time. I'm not a bond bull”
Why rising Rates are a Problem for the USA & a Death Sentence for Short Stacks at the Poker table.
Deglobalization, tariffs, and broken supply chains are elevating real assets to national-security status, eroding the law of one price and making ownership of physical resources essential regardless of cost premium — though jurisdiction of production now…
“you absolutely should invest in these areas”
Why the Dollar Milkshake Theory Still Hasn't Broken | Brent Johnson
The global financial system is structurally rigged in favor of the US — which sits at the foundational layer — so capital flows toward it relative to peers that share all the same debt and political problems but lack America's structural advantages
“you would quickly identify the United States because it would dramatically outnumber all of the other countries”
The Law of One Price Is Breaking. Hard Assets Will Never Be the Same | Brent Johnson
Said again: 2026-09-29 (Brent Johnson), 2026-10-04 (Brent Johnson), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-20 (Brent Johnson)
2026-09-21
Commodities Broad
bullish
Brent Johnson · video
Deglobalization, tariffs, and nationalization risk have structurally repriced foreign-jurisdiction commodity producers downward relative to domestic ones — a copper mine in the US now carries fewer tail risks than one in Africa or Asia as every nation…
“a copper mine in Africa versus a copper mine in the United States — now there's a whole new host of risks”
The Law of One Price Is Breaking. Hard Assets Will Never Be the Same | Brent Johnson
2026-09-13
long GOLD / long USD
other
Brent Johnson · video
Eurodollar debt creates permanent structural demand for USD while global currency debasement drives gold higher; the two are not enemies and can rise simultaneously as the world monetary system transitions
“gold and dollars can both rise together”
How to Prepare your Portfolio for the Possibilities that arrive when the Fourth Turning is over.
Global monetary instability is debasing all fiat currencies and the US Office of Strategic Capital may begin strategic stockpiling of precious metals, making ownership essential
“if you don't own silver, if you don't own gold...you should absolutely own some precious metals”
How to Prepare your Portfolio for the Possibilities that arrive when the Fourth Turning is over.
2026-09-13
CRITICAL MINERALS / RARE EARTHS
bullish
Brent Johnson · video
The US Office of Strategic Capital is orchestrating a 21st-century Manhattan Project in rare earths and critical minerals to build supply-chain independence from China via public-private partnerships, and Johnson's firm is actively deploying capital ahead of…
“the Office of Strategic Capital is the United States 21st century Manhattan project”
How to Prepare your Portfolio for the Possibilities that arrive when the Fourth Turning is over.
A 20% cash allocation in T-bills (~4% yield) preserves dry powder to buy distressed assets during a credit crunch rather than being forced to sell at the worst time, with the option value of that liquidity more than compensating for the inflation drag on the…
“that 20% that's sitting in cash earning 3% or 4%, you can then go put that to work at a really discounted rate”
Why a Strong Dollar is the Real Danger | Brent Johnson on the Yen Carry Trade
2026-08-20
long SPX / short International Dev
pair
Brent Johnson · video
Dollar milkshake capital flows concentrate in the US, making US equities likely to outperform EM and international developed equities on a risk-adjusted basis because EM carries embedded currency risk that the equity risk premium does not adequately…
“I don't think it's necessary to go buy these international or developed market equities”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory Explained — Brent Johnson | Tall Oaks
2026-08-11
long CORN FUTURES / long WHEAT FUTURES / long SOYBEAN FUTURES / long SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES
basket
Brent Johnson · video
Iran conflict disrupted fertilizer and chemical supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz during the spring planting season, and combined with an El Niño year, crop yield shortfalls haven't been priced in yet; prices are near long-term lows, creating…
“I think corn and wheat, soybeans, soybean meal — I think these could really do well kind of late Q4, early next year”
Brent Johnson: Why the Dollar Isn't Dying (And Why That Matters) | SIH
Global debt system will eventually lose control, forcing dollar printing that debases fiat; gold is the cornerstone hedge and the destination for capital fleeing sovereign bonds when the milkshake theory plays out
“owning gold as a cornerstone of your portfolio is something everybody should do”
The Great Yen Intervention is a Problem for the Whole World & your Portfolio needs to Understand Why
Said again: 2026-08-11 (Brent Johnson), 2026-08-20 (Brent Johnson), 2026-08-21 (Brent Johnson), 2026-09-21 (Brent Johnson), 2026-10-04 (Brent Johnson), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-08 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-20 (Brent Johnson)
As foreign sovereign bond yields rise and capital flees non-dollar debt, the milkshake theory predicts flows concentrate into US equities as one of the two primary destinations alongside gold
“that's how you get gold going higher. That's how you get US equities going higher”
The Great Yen Intervention is a Problem for the Whole World & your Portfolio needs to Understand Why
Said again: 2026-10-04 (Brent Johnson)
2026-06-19
Commodities Broad
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted shipping of fertilizers, chemicals, and other crop inputs during the planting season, setting up a potential supply-driven food cascade in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027
“sets us up for a potential food cascade later this year or next year”
90d +20.6%
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-19
MRO
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Gulf region is critical to the global MRO industry, and Hormuz disruption creates a cascading supply-chain failure across aviation servicing that few investors are pricing in
“one supply chain disruption ends up impacting another supply chain and creating another supply chain disruption”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-18
AGRICULTURE / FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Ships did not transit during the planting season so fertilizers, chemicals, and crop additives were disrupted, setting up a potential food cascade in Q4 2026 or 2027
“I think the fact that didn't happen sets us up for a potential food cascade later this year”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
Deglobalization and rising nationalism mean every country will be forced to rearm regardless of fiscal capacity, driving a sustained multi-year capex cycle in defense
“National defense is probably going to be the biggest investment opportunity any of us have ever seen”
90d -9.8%
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
Said again: 2026-06-19 (Macro Voices)
The dollar cannot die of weakness because every move toward dollar weakness generates more dollar-denominated debt, trapping the world inside the system; structural end-game, if it comes, arrives via dollar strength not collapse
“every move towards weakness creates more of the dollar debt that keeps the world inside the system”
90d +0.7%
The Secret Reason the US Dollar will NOT Die of Weakness
Said again: 2026-06-18 (Macro Voices), 2026-06-19 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-09 (Brent Johnson), 2026-08-20 (Brent Johnson), 2026-08-21 (Brent Johnson)
In three of four plausible macro scenarios the US outperforms the rest of the world due to superior liquidity, resilience to negative shocks, and continued capital inflows from the dollar milkshake dynamic
“95% of our equity exposure is US equity because I think that is has the most liquidity”
90d +14.3% · 180d +17.4%
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01
Em Equities
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
The widely-discussed rotation out of US equities into international and emerging markets is unnecessary because in most macro scenarios the US still outperforms on a risk-adjusted basis
“that rotation... to me that is not necessary”
90d -20.2% · 180d -18.0%
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01
JAPANESE YEN (SHORT JPY / WEAK YEN THEME)
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Japan is trapped between collapsing JGB values if rates rise and continued yen depreciation if they don't, making further yen weakness likely with systemic knock-on risks to regional currencies and global markets
“the yen is at 160 and potentially going higher... that can lead to many many problems”
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
High uncertainty between now and the midterms favors capital preservation over growth, making short-duration instruments the preferred holding
“between now and the midterms I think it's don't lose it. Capital preservation mode.”
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
Gold can reach $10,000–$20,000 as a separate battle from the dollar thesis — not mutually exclusive with a strong dollar — driven by fractional reserve rehypothecation in paper gold markets creating far more claims than physical ounces, plus gold-backed…
“gold can go to $10,000, $20,000 — it's just a separate battle”
90d -12.5% · 180d -14.9%
Ep. 33: Brent Johnson – Santiago Capital Founder & “Milkshake Theory” Creator
Said again: 2026-03-19 (Brent Johnson)
The dollar is structurally the 'best of all bad options' because every other country shares the same fundamental problems (debt, inequality, political dysfunction) but lacks the dollar's network advantages — the Eurodollar market has created hundreds of…
“it's the best of all the bad options”
90d +1.4% · 180d +2.7%
Ep. 33: Brent Johnson – Santiago Capital Founder & “Milkshake Theory” Creator
Said again: 2026-03-24 (Lacy Hunt), 2026-04-01 (Julia La Roche Show)
US dollar stablecoins will eventually replace eurodollar rails, giving the US government direct control over global monetary plumbing — a structural power shift analogous to the LIBOR-to-SOFR transition — making dollar-denominated stablecoin infrastructure a…
“It's the US creating its own channel that could eventually become the eurodollar rails”
90d +2.6% · 180d +1.5% · 1y +6.3%
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
Confluence of rare simultaneous signals — CTAs 95% long, VIX and bond vol at lows, momentum diverging from price, extreme market concentration in 10 stocks, extreme valuations, and tariffs now actually arriving — creates conditions for a 10–15% drawdown…
“July was the first time in 25 years that every little single thing I looked at told me to sell”
90d -4.7% · 180d -8.2% · 1y -21.4%
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
Global dollar-denominated debt must be serviced in dollars regardless of de-dollarization rhetoric, and Trump tariffs reduce dollar outflows to the rest of the world — both forces structurally support a stronger dollar, not a weaker one.
“the path to dollarization is the dollar going higher”
90d -3.0% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -5.0%
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Brent Johnson
With Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P simultaneously at or near all-time highs and anticipated Fed cuts already priced in, cash is the best risk-adjusted position ahead of an expected near-term correction
“the best thing I think somebody could put in their portfolio right now is Cash”
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
US equities are in an unsustainable bubble at all-time highs with rate cuts already priced in, making a significant drawdown likely within weeks to months before the longer bull resumes
“sometime in the next six months perhaps as early as the next two or three weeks we're going to have another hard drawdown”
90d -12.6% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -21.6%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
The 40-year bond bull market has ended; rising rates are a structural feature of the milkshake regime, not a temporary aberration, and coexist with a rising dollar and rising equities
“we will inter a period of time where the 40-year bond bull market will come to an end”
90d +4.4% · 180d +7.0% · 1y +5.9%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06
China Equities
bearish
Wealthion · video
China's real estate collapse and the failure of successive monetary loosening rounds leave its economy in worse shape than consensus believes, with global contagion risk over the next one to two years
“the Chinese real estate market is really just a disaster”
90d -19.1% · 180d -46.4% · 1y -59.2%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
All fiat currencies debase as governments manage debt crises; dollar outlasts peers but gold outperforms everything on a pure currency basis, with no counterparty risk
“my long-term price target for gold has been $5,000”
90d +9.7% · 180d +17.2% · 1y +39.7%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
Said again: 2024-09-06 (Wealthion)
Global euro-dollar debt demand keeps dollar bid in all crisis scenarios; de-globalization restricts dollar supply while demand is unchanged, and every prior 25-year crisis episode has coincided with a rising dollar
“investing is all about banking on the probabilities and the dollar beats other currencies”
90d +3.4% · 180d +7.3% · 1y +0.2%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
Said again: 2024-09-06 (Wealthion), 2024-09-07 (Wealthion)
Global capital is pivoting from sovereign bonds to US equities for safety; yields are permanently higher as fiscal doom loop continues and foreign demand for treasuries as collateral diminishes relative to demand for US equities
“people incorrectly think he is a treasury bull”
90d +2.3% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -2.9%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
Capital fleeing Europe, Asia, Australia, and EM will treat US stocks as a refuge from the global storm, driving a massive blow-off top to all-time highs before the eventual crash when the dollar finally reverses
“I think we're going to have a massive blow off top”
90d +2.0% · 180d +15.0% · 1y +24.6%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
2023-09-03
Em Equities
bearish
Brent Johnson · video
$200B of EM dollar-denominated debt matures within 24 months and must be repaid in an appreciating dollar while EM economies are already hurting and dollar supply is falling — Turkey and Argentina are the leading template
“200 billion dollars of debt that has to be repaid by emerging markets in the next 24 months”
90d +0.1% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -11.0%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
Political instability (Draghi and Merkel exiting, independence movements in Italy/Spain/Greece) combined with dollar short-squeeze will drain capital from Europe and push the euro to parity and then well below
“I think the euro is going to go back to par with the dollar and eventually go much lower”
90d +0.4% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +3.1%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
European sovereign yields are irrationally trading below the US risk-free rate; as capital flees to the dollar and dollar strength bites European economies, yields should at minimum double
“why in the hell are these countries yielding less than the risk-free rate, it doesn't make any sense”
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
A surging USD will correspondingly crush non-USD currencies, making gold in those local-currency terms rise 15-30% over the next 12-18 months; non-dollar investors should buy aggressively now before that dynamic plays out
“I think you can probably pretty much back up the truck and buy over the next couple months”
90d -1.8% · 180d +14.7% · 1y +19.9%
The “Dollar Milkshake” Theory with Brent Johnson
2019-02-09
Big Tech
bullish
Brent Johnson · video
Global capital fleeing EM/international chaos flows into the dollar and then into US assets, and an inverted yield curve historically precedes an 18-24 month speculative blow-off top, not an immediate crash; both S&P and Nasdaq are near the bottom of wedge…
“I'm not saying go out and buy equities because things are good — I'm saying go out and buy equities because things are bad”
90d +10.1% · 180d +12.2% · 1y +38.9%
The “Dollar Milkshake” Theory with Brent Johnson
2019-02-09
EUR / EURO
bearish
Brent Johnson · video
The euro is structurally broken — the ECB balance sheet is larger than the Fed's, QE is still ongoing with no credible exit, political fragmentation is worsening, and an over-regulatory environment is already showing up in corporate performance; the currency…
“The euro is just — I mean it's really a disaster. I really don't know how else to say it”
The “Dollar Milkshake” Theory with Brent Johnson
Global capital flight from crumbling EM economies and European instability will make US stocks a refuge, driving a massive blowoff top to all-time highs before eventually crashing when dollar-weakening policy is forced
“I think we're going to have a massive blowoff top”
90d +11.9% · 180d +15.4% · 1y +26.3%
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
2019-01-28
Em Equities
bearish
Brent Johnson · video
EM economies face a $200B debt maturity wall denominated in an appreciating dollar, ongoing currency collapses, and capital flight to the US, making their equity markets structurally unattractive
“Would you rather own Coca-Cola or do you want to own an emerging market stock?”
90d -5.3% · 180d -2.8% · 1y -7.0%
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
Fed tightening creates a perfect dollar short squeeze as $40T of global dollar-denominated debt demands service, a $200B EM maturity wall hits in 24 months, no viable alternative reserve currency distribution system exists, and US trade policy is starving the…
“I don't think we could design a more perfect short squeeze on the dollar if we set out to do so”
90d +3.1% · 180d +4.4% · 1y +5.9%
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
Said again: 2019-02-09 (Brent Johnson)
European yields sit irrationally below the US risk-free rate and will face extreme upward pressure as capital flees to the US, with yields potentially doubling from current levels
“I think Euro yields are going to come under extreme pressure. I think European yields could easily double”
90d +2.4% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +10.9%
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
2019-01-28
HKD
bearish
Brent Johnson · video
Dollar appreciation and China/Hong Kong recessions will overwhelm both currency pegs, forcing devaluations that cascade into broader EM asset collapses
“I think both Hong Kong and China go into recession and I think the peg on both of them break”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
Global growth deterioration from dollar strength and synchronized EM stress will weigh on energy demand
“I don't have quite as big a conviction on this — I think oil is going to come under pressure”
90d -20.8% · 180d -7.9% · 1y -2.7%
The Dollar Milkshake Theory - Brent Johnson
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