Investors / stance tracking
What Michael Howell is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital
116 dated public stances tracked since 2022-12-07, most recently 2026-10-23. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Howell's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Howell is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
116
tracked stances
48
themes
18
side flips
2026-10-23
last heard
Returns 90d +1.6% 45% correct · 56 calls · 180d +5.2% 52% correct · 44 calls · 1y +11.4% 61% correct · 31 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | long GOLD / long BITCOIN | basket | +12.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | long GOLD / short BITCOIN | pair | -17.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | USTS | bullish | -4.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | USD | bullish | +0.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +24.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | CASH | bullish | +0.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | SPX | bearish | -1.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | BITCOIN | bearish | -20.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | OIL | bullish | -2.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | GOLD | bullish | -0.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | ENERGY | bullish | +11.2% | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | Investment Grade Credit | bearish | +1.2% | +4.4% | — |
| 2026-04-08 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -1.6% | -9.2% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | SILVER | bullish | -7.7% | -12.4% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | High Yield | bearish | -1.6% | -1.4% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -3.9% | +16.8% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | CASH | bullish | +0.9% | +1.8% | — |
| 2026-03-19 | BITCOIN | bullish | -7.8% | +8.1% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | long GOLD / short BITCOIN | pair | -11.5% | -15.1% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | USTS | owns | -2.1% | -2.9% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | SPX | bearish | -10.8% | -12.4% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | GOLD | bullish | -16.1% | -16.6% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | ENERGY | bullish | +1.1% | +13.7% | — |
| 2026-03-02 | China Equities | bullish | -4.2% | -3.4% | — |
| 2025-10-17 | long BITCOIN / short Big Tech | pair | -6.7% | -17.8% | -21.5% |
| 2025-10-17 | China Equities | bullish | +1.1% | -6.8% | -14.6% |
| 2025-10-08 | USTS | bearish | -0.9% | -0.5% | +3.5% |
| 2025-10-08 | USD | bearish | -0.9% | -3.4% | -7.7% |
| 2025-10-08 | SILVER | bullish | +65.4% | +48.3% | +20.0% |
| 2025-10-08 | DEFENSE | bullish | +7.0% | +4.7% | -4.5% |
| 2025-10-08 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +3.5% | +33.9% | +49.5% |
| 2025-09-15 | USD | bullish | +2.3% | +5.0% | +6.9% |
| 2025-09-15 | GOLD | bullish | +16.8% | +35.9% | +16.3% |
| 2025-09-15 | BITCOIN | bullish | -23.6% | -38.3% | -34.5% |
| 2025-06-10 | USTS | bearish | -4.5% | -4.6% | -3.7% |
| 2025-06-10 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +2.6% | +6.5% | +39.4% |
| 2025-04-02 | long GOLD / long BITCOIN | basket | +17.4% | +30.4% | +15.0% |
| 2025-04-02 | High Yield | bearish | -3.2% | -5.6% | -6.9% |
| 2025-04-02 | GOLD | bullish | +6.7% | +22.3% | +49.0% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 56 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS — bearish2026-03-19 → bullish2026-10-19
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-09-09 → bullish2026-10-08
Commodities Broad — bullish2026-06-26 → bearish2026-10-08
GLOBAL EQUITIES — bullish2024-08-28 → bearish2026-10-08
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 flips.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 8 | 6 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-10-13 | |
| GOLD | 7 | 7 bullish | 2026-09-09 | |
| SPX | 7 | 2 bullish / 3 bearish / 2 neutral | 2026-09-22 | |
| USD | 7 | 4 bullish / 3 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| USTS | 7 | 3 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-17 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 6 | 2 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-10-08 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-23
long Long Dur Treasuries / short Commodities Broad
pair
Michael Howell · video
Tactical rotation from stretched commodity markets into bonds makes sense as the liquidity cycle rolls over, with the trade reversing once central banks reflate to handle the 2027 debt-refinancing wall
“you want to be switching out of commodities right now into bonds”
Michael Howell: Bullish on Gold, Cautious on What Comes Next
The ECB must print money to buy peripheral sovereign debt to maintain the euro system's cohesion, which debases the euro and drives dollar strength as the only credible reserve-currency safe asset
“why would you want to own the euro in this sort of environment? Hence, the dollar goes up”
Michael Howell: Bullish on Gold, Cautious on What Comes Next
2026-10-19
long GOLD / long BITCOIN
basket
Michael Howell · video
Governments globally must monetize debt to manage the maturity wall, debasing fiat; a volatility-weighted basket of gold and Bitcoin optimally captures this monetary inflation hedge with Bitcoin's weight growing as its volatility declines toward…
“the ideal is to weight that basket by relative volatility”
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset
2026-10-19
TECHNOLOGY STOCKS
bullish
Michael Howell · video
In a steady monetary inflation environment, technology companies with pricing power and rapid growth are the primary beneficiaries as the real economy's growth engine, outperforming over the medium term despite high current valuations
“technology has got to be a winner because that's where the growth is coming from”
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset
2026-10-19
RESOURCE COMPANIES
bullish
Michael Howell · video
The US-China capital war is forcing a strategic scramble for resource access, with governments directing procurement spending toward resource security, making resource companies structural beneficiaries
“capital war against China and you've got to scramble for access to resources. Resource companies look pretty good”
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset
2026-10-19
Small Caps
bearish
Michael Howell · video
Global liquidity is being drained into the real economy, and less-liquid market segments get hit first — the Russell 2000 is already exhibiting bear-market price action reflecting this liquidity crimping
“just look at the Russell 2000. I mean, that looks like it's in a bare market to me”
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset
2026-10-19
VALUE STOCKS
bearish
Michael Howell · video
In a debt-monetization, steady-inflation environment value stocks lack the pricing power and growth trajectories needed to outpace inflation, making them structural underperformers versus growth and hard assets
“value stocks are unlikely to be great performers”
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset
2026-10-17
long GOLD / short USD
ratio
Michael Howell · video
Gold should outperform the US dollar as debt monetization erodes paper-money purchasing power despite the dollar remaining the strongest major fiat currency.
“Is gold likely to outperform the paper dollar? Most likely.”
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY IS FALLING AGAIN AND MARKETS ARE DANGEROUSLY EXPOSED - w/ Michael Howell
2026-10-17
long USD / short UNKNOWN / short UNKNOWN / short UNKNOWN
basket
Michael Howell · video
The US dollar should outperform the yen, euro and British pound because global surplus capital has few alternatives to deep and efficient US financial markets.
“The dollar is going to best any of these other units like the Japanese yen, like the euro, like the British pound.”
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY IS FALLING AGAIN AND MARKETS ARE DANGEROUSLY EXPOSED - w/ Michael Howell
Bonds offer a near-term haven because yields have moved above their long-run average while tightening liquidity, expensive energy and higher rates should cool the economy.
“For the next few months it's not a bad place to hide.”
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY IS FALLING AGAIN AND MARKETS ARE DANGEROUSLY EXPOSED - w/ Michael Howell
2026-10-16
TIPS
bullish
Michael Howell · video
With nominal yields back above their multi-century historical average of ~5% and the economy likely slowing into 2027, TIPS at 3% real yield offer an attractive tactical hedge during an anticipated bond rally phase.
“you can buy US TIPS, 3% real, that ain't bad”
Why Global Debt Keeps Forcing Central Banks to Print Money
Said again: 2026-10-19 (Michael Howell)
2026-10-16
EQUITIES
bearish
Michael Howell · video
Markets are entering a turbulence phase as global liquidity growth slows due to a strong real economy crowding out financial-market liquidity, making the next six months difficult for broad equities.
“that may be a lot tougher for equities over the next six months”
Why Global Debt Keeps Forcing Central Banks to Print Money
The ongoing monetary tightening cycle—evidenced by two-year Treasury yields rising sharply relative to SOFR—combined with a global liquidity cycle in downswing will weigh on Bitcoin over roughly the next three months.
“I'm not so convinced it's going to do well over the next three months”
"You're Going To Get A Financial Crisis" | Michael Howell
2026-10-13
SHORT CNY
bearish
Michael Howell · video
China's monetary expansion needed to resolve its Japan-style debt deflation would cause significant yuan depreciation absent capital controls; the currency is artificially elevated by state management, foreign-exchange reserves, and compliant state banks…
“it's a currency that should fall, not rise in value”
"You're Going To Get A Financial Crisis" | Michael Howell
Real-economy strength is driving product prices (diesel already implying ~$160/barrel crude) and the commodity cycle closely tracks the real-economy cycle which is accelerating, with oil potentially reaching $200/barrel
“the implied crude price looking at what we're paying for diesel now is actually $160 a barrel”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Turning Against Stocks — What Happens to Gold Next?
2026-10-08
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Michael Howell · video
Asset allocation sequencing from the liquidity cycle framework calls for rotating into bonds as the cycle moves from speculation into turbulence, with bonds being the first asset class to benefit from the liquidity cycle's eventual trough
“turbulence means you want more bonds, you want to start pairing down risk assets”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Turning Against Stocks — What Happens to Gold Next?
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-19 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-23 (Michael Howell)
2026-10-08
Commodities Broad
bearish
Michael Howell · video
Commodities perform well in the speculation phase driven by real-economy strength, but begin to underperform as the cycle moves into turbulence — the current transition from speculation toward turbulence signals the commodity rally is maturing
“commodities do well in speculation... they start to perform poorly when you move into turbulence”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Turning Against Stocks — What Happens to Gold Next?
2026-10-08
GLOBAL EQUITIES
bearish
Michael Howell · video
Global liquidity cycle peaked in late 2025, and with the typical ~9-month transmission lag PE multiples are already contracting even as earnings remain solid — the next leg is earnings peaking, not just valuation compression, warranting reduced risk-asset…
“PE multiples are starting to contract... you're going to see a catch up soon where earnings start to peak and come down”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Turning Against Stocks — What Happens to Gold Next?
2026-10-08
Japan Equities
bullish
Michael Howell · video
Japan's debt-to-liquidity ratio has crashed to low levels following Abenomics and BoJ bond-buying, removing the debt burden that suppressed returns, while Japan is now seeing the fastest nominal GDP growth since 1991
“we're now at a low level which makes the Japanese economy look a pretty interesting place to invest”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Turning Against Stocks — What Happens to Gold Next?
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Michael Howell)
Rising bond yields compress PE multiples while earnings growth is set to slow in 2027 as the cycle matures, pointing to index underperformance relative to hard assets even absent a crash.
“you're looking at underperformance and you've had a good run out of equities already”
Michael Howell: FED Rate Hikes Will Trigger The Biggest Bull Run Ever
For every 10% increase in global liquidity, Bitcoin's price has historically doubled, and structural government money-printing via short-term debt issuance creates ongoing monetary inflation that disproportionately benefits the most liquidity-sensitive asset.
“for every 10% increase in global liquidity, you get something like a doubling of the Bitcoin price”
Michael Howell: FED Rate Hikes Will Trigger The Biggest Bull Run Ever
Said again: 2026-10-08 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-16 (Michael Howell)
2026-09-22
ETHEREUM AND SOLANA
bullish
Michael Howell · video
Ethereum and Solana sit in the same highest-sensitivity-to-global-liquidity cohort as Bitcoin on CrossBorder Capital's sensitivity analysis, making them beneficiaries of the same structural monetary inflation dynamic, though Bitcoin carries the strongest…
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana, various combinations of those, gold, silver… which all have relatively high sensitivities”
Michael Howell: FED Rate Hikes Will Trigger The Biggest Bull Run Ever
Western central banks are printing money via Treasury QE (private banks funding government spending by expanding balance sheets), driving monetary inflation that gold hedges perfectly — and China's debt problem forces PBOC printing while Chinese investors…
“absolutely 100% this is a buying opportunity. If gold comes back, buy it”
The Global Liquidity Cycle Has Peaked — Prepare for Turbulence! Michael Howell
Said again: 2026-09-22 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-13 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-16 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-19 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-23 (Michael Howell)
2026-09-09
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Michael Howell · video
Nominal GDP growth worldwide implies bond yields are approximately 100 basis points below fair value; governments will try to suppress yields but the structural pressure from strong economies is too strong to fully offset
“Bond yields are about 100 basis points below probably where they should be”
The Global Liquidity Cycle Has Peaked — Prepare for Turbulence! Michael Howell
Said again: 2026-10-16 (Michael Howell)
2026-08-21
long BITCOIN / long GOLD
basket
Michael Howell · video
Hold both gold and Bitcoin as complementary monetary inflation hedges weighted by volatility — gold for consistency (2,000yr track record, 1.5x liquidity multiplier) and Bitcoin for impact (up to 8x liquidity multiplier), sizing ~5% Bitcoin to ~25% gold to…
“you've got to choose a basket of the two... weight them in terms of their volatility”
Everyone Missed This About The Great Debasement — Bessent Is Sending BTC Parabolic | Michael Howell
Bessent's strategy of funding the deficit through bill issuance is de-facto monetization being copied globally (UK, Japan, Germany, France all shortening average debt tenor), and this coordinated global money-printing will undoubtedly weaken the dollar
“that would undoubtedly weaken the dollar... they're just calling it funding at the short end”
Everyone Missed This About The Great Debasement — Bessent Is Sending BTC Parabolic | Michael Howell
Silver is a high-beta precious metals play on the same PBOC liquidity expansion driving gold, and early signs of silver beginning to outperform gold signal that sentiment is returning to the broader precious metals complex and confirm the gold bull thesis
“whether silver, which is a high beta play, is rising faster than the gold price”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
Said again: 2026-09-22 (Michael Howell)
Commodity markets historically dominate around the peak and downswing of the global liquidity cycle as money flows from financial assets into the real economy, and China's renewed liquidity expansion will add further fuel to commodity demand on top of already…
“commodity markets, they tend to be dominant around the peak of the cycle”
MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
Nominal GDP running 7–8% is structurally incompatible with 10-year yields at 4.7%; Treasury front-end issuance is private-sector QE that works until it doesn't — Japan's 50bps-to-3% move is the cautionary template
“nominal GDP growth running at something like 7 to 8% and that is incompatible with bond yields currently at 4.7%”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
Said again: 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell), 2026-09-22 (Michael Howell), 2026-10-19 (Michael Howell)
Liquidity cycle peaked in Q3–Q4 2025, compressing PE multiples as rising yields lift the cost of capital even while earnings remain supported — entering a speculation regime of choppy, low-quality returns with more downside risk than upside
“I still think the best view for this year is that you've got generally a range-bound market”
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Turned, Low Quality Returns Ahead for Stocks, and Real Driver of Gold
Said again: 2026-09-09 (Michael Howell)
2026-07-27
long EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE EQUITIES / short SPX
pair
Michael Howell · video
US share buybacks are slowing as the capex boom absorbs corporate cash, while buybacks are accelerating in Europe and Japan, making non-US equities a better allocation on a forward returns basis.
“Buybacks in Europe or in Japan are actually beginning to increase — better to diversify out of America”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-27
WHEAT
bullish
Michael Howell · video
Late liquidity cycle dynamics push money from financial markets into the real economy, supporting commodity prices broadly, with wheat among the specific beneficiaries Howell names.
“I think higher wheat prices. Generally commodity markets are going to do well”
Michael Howell Global Liquidity: How Money Flows Move Asset Prices | Market Cycles Report 7/7/26
2026-07-22
long GOLD / long BITCOIN
basket
Michael Howell · video
Western governments have no exit from exponentially compounding debt except monetization, making gold and Bitcoin the essential long-term insurance against the coming 'great debasement' of fiat currencies — the same dynamic China is already executing…
“if you want an insurance policy against it, you just got to own these monetary inflation hedges”
90d +12.6%
Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell
2026-07-19
GLOBAL EQUITIES / RISK ASSETS
bearish
Michael Howell · video
The global liquidity cycle peaked in Q4 2025 and momentum has been decelerating since, which mechanically causes returns on risk assets to fall and their volatility to rise, degrading the quality of holding them.
“not only do returns on risk assets fall, but actually the underlying volatility of those instruments picks up”
Why Global Liquidity May Be Turning Against Markets | With Michael Howell
2026-06-26
long GOLD / short BITCOIN
pair
Michael Howell · video
Prefer gold over Bitcoin because China (PBOC) is the marginal pricer of gold and may restart liquidity injections, while Bitcoin has no such anchor and faces pure US-tightening headwinds
“I would be more willing to be buying gold here than Bitcoin”
90d -17.9%
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
2026-06-26
Commodities Broad
bullish
Michael Howell · video
Embedded inflation, strong real-economy demand crowding out financial assets, and deglobalization-driven duplication of supply chains and defense capex globally point to sustained upward pressure on commodity prices in the medium term.
“start thinking about getting some protection from commodities if inflation is an embedded issue”
90d +24.9%
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
Said again: 2026-07-07 (Michael Howell), 2026-07-19 (Michael Howell), 2026-07-27 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-11 (Michael Howell), 2026-09-09 (Michael Howell), 2026-09-22 (Michael Howell)
In a tightening, higher-inflation environment, short-duration government debt offers attractive nominal yields with minimal duration risk, making it a defensible liquid holding versus equities or long bonds.
“start moving towards shorter duration government debt — you're getting pretty nice yields on that”
90d -4.6%
Massive Liquidity Shock Coming; Brace For 'Wrecking Ball' Warns Economist | Michael Howell
Said again: 2026-07-27 (Michael Howell)
Hawkish new Fed Chair Walsh may allow monetary conditions to tighten without raising rates, while strong NGDP growth and sustained capital inflows support the dollar, which is still within its post-GFC uptrend channel
“the dollar is very much key to the next few months and my guess would be that it strengthens”
90d +0.8%
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
Said again: 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell)
The global liquidity cycle is inflecting downward, making cash increasingly attractive on a risk-return basis relative to equities and fixed income as liquidity conditions tighten
“cash is likely to be on a risk return basis an increasingly attractive asset to hold as liquidity conditions tighten”
90d +0.8%
Michael Howell: Liquidity Has Peaked, Here's What Happens Next
Rising inflation and elevated Treasury yields will compress PE multiples, causing equity market derating even as earnings (E) remain supported by strong economic activity
“The market should be derating in anticipation of higher inflation and in response to high yields we've seen in the Treasury market”
90d -1.3%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
Said again: 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices)
Crypto prices lag global liquidity conditions by approximately 13 weeks, and the current rollover in liquidity growth predicts further crypto price declines ahead
“Crypto is a fantastic barometer of underlying liquidity conditions and liquidity is predicting what's happening to crypto”
90d -20.9%
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
Said again: 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell), 2026-07-07 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-11 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-27 (Michael Howell)
2026-06-03
AI/TECHNOLOGY EQUITIES (SPECULATIVE PHASE)
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI-driven capex boom is inflationary in the short term which pressures PE multiples, and the market is in a late-cycle speculative phase with elevated volatility ahead of a turbulence phase where losses are likely
“Whatever the merits of AI, in the short term it's inflationary for the economy. There's no question about that.”
Michael Howell: AI Will Fuel Inflation, And Markets Aren’t Ready
US monetary inflation (debt growing 7-8% p.a. per CBO, monetized via bank bill-buying) erodes real wealth and gold — having outperformed Wall Street since 2000 (~15x vs ~6-7x) — is the correct monetary-inflation hedge, not a CPI hedge
“If you want to protect your wealth, think about monetary inflation — that's what matters”
90d -0.9%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
Said again: 2026-06-03 (Wealthion), 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell), 2026-07-27 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-05 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-11 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-27 (Michael Howell)
2026-06-02
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Nominal GDP running 7-8% p.a. is inconsistent with 10-year yields near 5%; if that spread compresses via rising yields, a 100bps move costs ~7% on a 10-year and ~20% on a 30-year — far exceeding the coupon
“A 10-year bond — if you get a 100 basis point increase you're going to lose about 7%”
90d +2.9%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
Said again: 2026-06-03 (Wealthion), 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell), 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell), 2026-07-22 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-05 (Michael Howell), 2026-08-21 (Michael Howell)
The 60-year gold/oil ratio historically averages ~20x; with gold at $4,000-5,000/oz the ratio-implied oil price is materially above spot, signaling oil is cheap on a relative-value basis, compounded by strong nominal GDP and Iranian supply tensions
“Divide [gold price] by 20 — what's the oil price? Over 200 bucks a barrel”
90d -2.6%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
Said again: 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices)
Late-cycle equity rotation favors real-economy sectors; cheap oil relative to gold and a strong nominal-GDP backdrop make energy the preferred late-cycle equity area over broad market exposure
“Energy stocks to my mind look pretty attractive right now”
90d +11.2%
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
Said again: 2026-08-13 (Macro Voices)
2026-06-02
FED FUNDS RATE / SHORT US RATES
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
The US economy is running strong nominal GDP (~7-8%) with persistent monetary inflation; the consensus expects rate cuts but Howell argues the Fed will have to hike within 12 months, making front-end rate hike expectations a contrarian trade
“The Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates in the next 12 months”
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
At current yields, mid-duration (2-5yr) treasuries carry low enough duration risk that a rate rise would not exceed the coupon, making them an acceptable fixed-income holding in a turbulence-hedged core portfolio
“Between the two-five year area at current yields you're probably okay — duration is sufficiently low”
Howell: Speculation Ending, Turbulence Ahead, Money Moving Real Economy, & Why Fed Could Hike
Said again: 2026-06-03 (Wealthion)
2026-04-17
long CONSUMER STAPLES / UTILITIES (DEFENSIVES) / short INDUSTRIALS
pair
Julia La Roche Show · video
As the global liquidity cycle rolls over from speculation toward turbulence, defensive sectors (staples, utilities) outperform cyclicals (financials, industrials) because falling liquidity drains the risk appetite that drives cyclical outperformance.
Michael Howell: We Are Coming To An Inflection Point — Where Liquidity Is Headed
2026-04-17
CONSUMER STAPLES / UTILITIES
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Late-cycle liquidity downturn favors defensive sectors; the traffic-light framework turns green for defensives in the speculation and turbulence phases while cyclicals turn red.
Michael Howell: We Are Coming To An Inflection Point — Where Liquidity Is Headed
2026-04-17
QUALITY EQUITIES WITH PRICING POWER
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Long-term monetary inflation from debt monetization rewards companies that can pass through price increases, making pricing-power equities a durable core holding.
Michael Howell: We Are Coming To An Inflection Point — Where Liquidity Is Headed
2026-04-17
Investment Grade Credit
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
In the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle, credit spreads have already captured most of their gains and deteriorating liquidity conditions warrant a full exit before spreads widen materially.
90d +1.2% · 180d +4.4%
Michael Howell: We Are Coming To An Inflection Point — Where Liquidity Is Headed
Fed liquidity is flatlining at best under current RMP policy, and the private-sector liquidity drawdown from AI capex and real-economy demand means the cyclical top in global liquidity is already in, supporting at most a flat equity market rather than a bull…
“This is a monetary policy for a flatlining market, at best. It's not a monetary policy for a bull market in equities.”
The Everything Bubble Is Over: Michael Howell’s Warning for 2026
Said again: 2026-06-26 (Michael Howell)
2026-04-08
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Michael Howell · video
As global liquidity tightens, investors flee to safety and bid down government bond term premiums, a relationship that has reliably led the yield curve by ~9 months throughout history, making yield curve flattening the big 2026 macro call
“Our big call for 2026 was to say we expected the yield curve to begin to flatten by the middle of this year.”
90d -1.6% · 180d -9.2%
The Everything Bubble Is Over: Michael Howell’s Warning for 2026
Said again: 2026-04-17 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-03-24
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY / RISK ASSETS BROADLY
bearish
Lacy Hunt · video
Global liquidity is at a cyclical inflection point turning down as money flows from financial markets into the real economy, and asset markets price inflections at the margin, making lower asset prices ahead highly probable
“what we're facing now is tightening liquidity conditions. That's basically a fact”
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts
Silver, like gold, is a dedicated monetary inflation hedge in an environment of rising global debt monetization, signaling the same structural shift away from fiat purchasing power
“the gold market is probably signaling that right now as is silver perhaps”
90d -7.7% · 180d -12.4%
LIQUIDITY IS EVERYTHING: Why a Financial Crisis Is Baked In | Michael Howell EP 113
2026-03-19
Commodities Broad
bullish
Michael Howell · video
The liquidity cycle is at the peak transition between the calm and speculation phases, which is historically the optimal window for commodity outperformance, confirmed by oil and broad commodity markets already outperforming significantly
“you want commodities. And that's pretty much where we are”
90d -3.9% · 180d +16.8%
LIQUIDITY IS EVERYTHING: Why a Financial Crisis Is Baked In | Michael Howell EP 113
Said again: 2026-06-02 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-03 (Wealthion)
With the global liquidity cycle having peaked in Q3 2025 and decelerating into the turbulence phase, raising cash weightings is the cycle-appropriate defensive move before the next crisis creates a better re-entry point
“you want cash, higher cash weightings”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.8%
LIQUIDITY IS EVERYTHING: Why a Financial Crisis Is Baked In | Michael Howell EP 113
Bitcoin and crypto have functioned as monetary inflation hedges over the past 15 years and will continue to serve that role as secular debt monetization forces a structural 7-8% annual debasement, despite higher volatility than precious metals
“they've done their job”
90d -7.8% · 180d +8.1%
LIQUIDITY IS EVERYTHING: Why a Financial Crisis Is Baked In | Michael Howell EP 113
Said again: 2026-04-08 (Michael Howell), 2026-04-17 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-03-19
High Yield
bearish
Michael Howell · video
In the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle, credit spreads are beginning to blow out—private credit firms such as Blue Owl are being cited—and reducing credit exposure is the cycle-appropriate response before conditions deteriorate further
“you want to be taking down your credit exposure”
90d -1.6% · 180d -1.4%
LIQUIDITY IS EVERYTHING: Why a Financial Crisis Is Baked In | Michael Howell EP 113
Showing the 60 most recent of 116 tracked stances.
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