Investors / stance tracking
What Louis Vincent Gave is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal
90 dated public stances tracked since 2021-12-30, most recently 2026-10-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Louis Vincent Gave's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Louis Vincent Gave is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
90
tracked stances
45
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-22
last heard
Returns 90d +1.6% 50% correct · 58 calls · 180d +2.6% 44% correct · 45 calls · 1y +4.4% 41% correct · 32 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD / short USTS | basket | +7.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD | other | +10.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | SPX | bearish | -3.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +1.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | -8.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | ENERGY | bullish | +21.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | BABA | owns | -13.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | USTS | bearish | +3.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | USD | bearish | -2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | GOLD | bullish | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +19.6% | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | International Dev | bullish | +1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | China Equities | bullish | -2.2% | — | — |
| 2026-03-12 | short Big Tech / long Em Equities | pair | -1.4% | +0.5% | — |
| 2026-03-12 | long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long GOLD / long ENERGY | other | -8.9% | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-03-12 | USTS | bearish | +1.1% | +1.7% | — |
| 2026-03-12 | USD | bearish | -1.3% | -1.1% | — |
| 2026-03-12 | Em Equities | bullish | +13.5% | +21.5% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | long China Equities / short SPX | pair | -5.4% | -7.1% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | OIL | bullish | +49.9% | +46.0% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.8% | +5.6% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | GOLD | bullish | -12.7% | -13.4% | — |
| 2026-03-04 | ENERGY | bullish | +3.8% | +15.4% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | USTS | bullish | +0.7% | -0.2% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | NVDA | bearish | -3.9% | -20.7% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | META | bearish | +3.0% | +8.2% | — |
| 2025-08-05 | USD | bearish | -2.4% | -1.3% | -5.4% |
| 2025-08-05 | International Dev | bullish | +8.6% | +18.4% | +28.5% |
| 2025-08-05 | China Equities | bullish | +5.8% | +5.2% | -2.4% |
| 2025-04-13 | USTS | bearish | -1.0% | -4.8% | -5.2% |
| 2025-04-13 | USD | bearish | +0.3% | -1.9% | -3.5% |
| 2025-04-13 | GOLD | bullish | +4.0% | +24.6% | +47.0% |
| 2025-04-13 | Big Tech | bearish | -21.7% | -29.2% | -35.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | long SPX / short SPX | ratio | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-28 | ENERGY | bullish | -6.6% | +0.0% | +15.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | AAPL | bearish | +11.7% | +9.9% | -8.1% |
| 2023-08-31 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +3.2% | +2.0% | -3.8% |
| 2023-08-31 | Em Equities | bullish | +0.8% | +5.3% | +13.6% |
| 2023-08-31 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -1.1% | -5.7% | -5.7% |
| 2023-08-31 | BYD | bullish | -11.7% | -4.6% | -9.3% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 58 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | 7 | 6 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-07-28 | |
| USTS | 7 | 1 bullish / 5 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-07-10 | |
| USD | 6 | 6 bearish | 2026-07-10 | |
| GOLD | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-07-10 | |
| CHINESE EQUITIES | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-12-15 | |
| Commodities Broad | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-10 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-22
short UNKNOWN / long NOK / long ISK / long HUF (+1 legs)
basket
Macro Voices · video
France's emerging-market-style fiscal crisis — 5% GDP deficit with zero tax-raising capacity at 44% tax-to-GDP, majority foreign-held debt — is triggering foreigners to exit French bonds and will broadly pressure the EUR, while short-EUR positions against…
“the smartest trade at this stage is to sell the euro against all the European peripheral currencies”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
2026-10-22
short UNKNOWN / long NOK / long ISK / long HUF (+1 legs)
basket
Macro Voices (feed) · video
France's terminal fiscal/political crisis signals EUR overvaluation relative to European peripheral currencies, all of which offer positive carry while providing protection if the euro breaks up or down
“the smartest trade at this stage is to sell the euro against all the European peripheral currencies”
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
2026-09-04
long GOLD / long ENERGY / long MLPS / HIGH-DIVIDEND YIELD EQUITIES
basket
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Bonds no longer provide portfolio ballast in an inflationary world, requiring a hybrid bond-replacement basket of precious metals (store of value against currency debasement), energy (direct hedge against the primary inflation driver), and high-yield dividend…
“that hybrid mini portfolio has some precious metals, it has some energy… high dividend yielding assets, MLPs if you're an American client”
Louis Vincent Gave – Navigating Global Tectonic Shifts: Investing in a New Era
European policy environment has improved from catastrophically bad to merely mediocre, triggering a deep-discount re-rating, supported by fiscal stimulus, recovering energy policy, and rising bank lending — a pattern Gave has seen repeatedly across emerging…
“the best performing sector in the world is European banks”
Louis Vincent Gave – Navigating Global Tectonic Shifts: Investing in a New Era
2026-07-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD / short USTS
basket
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The inflationary quadrant driven by fiscal, monetary, and trade policies breaks the 40-year bond diversification role; the replacement portfolio is 60% equities for growth capture, 20% energy for inflationary-bust protection, and 20% metals for…
“the new portfolio is 60 equities, 20 energy, 20 metals”
90d +7.6%
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
2026-07-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long ENERGY / long GOLD
other
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
The 60/40 portfolio is dead because bonds no longer diversify equity drawdowns in an inflationary regime; replace the entire bond allocation with equal parts energy (inflationary-bust hedge) and metals (inflationary-boom hedge) while keeping equities at 60%
“The new portfolio is 60 equities, 20 energy, 20 metals”
90d +10.6%
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
Energy has been the best-performing sector globally over five years — beating tech — yet has shrunk from 5.5% to 3% of the S&P 500 through buybacks and M&A rather than capital issuance; in the inflationary quadrant it is the superior portfolio diversifier…
“The best performing sector for the past five years is energy — it's actually outperformed tech”
90d +21.7%
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
LONG JPY
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Japan's Ministry of Finance has instructed GPIF to repatriate overseas assets into yen and JGBs; with yen deeply undervalued, Japan running a trade surplus, and virtually no foreign holders of domestic assets there is no natural seller of yen to absorb the…
“if the yen goes up, I don't see how bond yields don't continue to go up”
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
US exceptionalism is empirically fading — US equities have underperformed EM by 22%, Europe by 12%, and Japan by 17% since Trump's inauguration — while the S&P 500 is no longer a diversified bet at 40% tech concentration and the US net international…
“it makes sense on a valuation point of view, on investor positioning, given underlying fundamentals, and given the current momentum”
90d -3.6%
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
Alibaba is aggressively shrinking its share count via buybacks — the opposite of US tech peers now issuing dilutive stock — while trading at deep discount in a China that is a 'raging bargain' on cost of capital, labor, and living
“that's one of my biggest positions”
90d -13.0%
One Hour of Macro with Louis-Vincent Gave
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
AI capex cycle creates the same hardware-over-software rotation in China as in the US, but Shenzhen (hardware) and Shanghai have surged ~45% while Hong Kong (internet platforms, software) has been down — the divergence is structural, not temporary
“Shenzhen is up like whatever it is 45% in the past 12 months and the Hang Seng is down”
90d -8.3%
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-28
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
GPIF repatriation forces selling of US Treasuries into a market that already has energy-driven inflation re-acceleration and Chinese money returning home — yields broke out to new highs even on the largest CPI downside surprise since 2011, signaling the bond…
“It's going to be a tough environment for bonds”
90d +1.9%
One Hour of Macro Episode 1 - Louis Vincent Gave - CEO of Gavekal
2026-07-10
long BANKS / long GLOBAL CYCLICALS / short US TECH/AI SECTOR
pair
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global financials and cyclicals are underowned with reasonable valuations and building momentum in a steepening-curve, weakening-dollar environment, while AI/tech is massively crowded, overvalued, and faces Chinese open-source commoditization of both LLMs and…
“do I buy the tech or like super crowded... I'd be overweight cyclicals and financials”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
Structural bond bear market driven by governments running 4-7% fiscal deficits at full employment, persistent inflation, and looming Japanese capital repatriation as JGB yields rise to levels competitive with global alternatives, removing the key marginal…
“we're in a structural bond bear market”
90d +3.5%
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Louis-Vincent Gave), 2026-07-28 (Louis-Vincent Gave), 2026-09-04 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
2026-07-10
US REFINERS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Global refinery capacity has been structurally destroyed by Russia-Ukraine mutual bombing raids and Iran war strikes on Gulf refineries, while no new refinery capacity is being built due to the EV transition thesis, creating a durable crack spread expansion…
“Marathon is going to be buying five or 10% of their stock uh like for the next few years”
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-07-10
Commodities Broad
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Loss of US sea-lane control demonstrated in the Iran conflict means countries must self-insure via physical commodity stockpiles (fertilizer, oil, rare earths, pharmaceuticals), creating double demand as depleted inventories are rebuilt AND new storage…
“you need to stockpile whatever you need... you can no longer assume that you can throw money at a problem and have it fixed”
90d +19.6%
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
MAG7 stocks have served as a de facto global reserve asset driving structural dollar demand; unwinding of the AI/hyperscaler trade removes that bid, and the dollar has already failed to rally in conditions that should have been highly favorable (rate hikes…
90d -2.1%
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
Said again: 2026-09-04 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
The 2022 seizure of Russian sovereign and private assets without legal process broke the West's key comparative advantage—rule of law—causing EM central banks and wealthy individuals globally to rotate from OECD bonds into gold as a reserve asset that cannot…
“the lesson of 2022 was don't buy treasuries, buy gold”
90d +0.4%
Louis-Vincent Gave: Inside China's Plan to Kill the Dollar's Dominance
2026-06-28
long GLOBAL EQUITIES (VALUE/FINANCIALS) / long ENERGY / long METALS
basket
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Replace the dead 60/40 bond-equity model with a 60/20/20 allocation across equities, energy, and metals—covering the three most likely macro scenarios (inflationary boom, inflationary bust, deflationary boom) while eliminating government bonds, which are a…
“60 equity, 20% energy, 20% metals...bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
OTM
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
FX implied volatility is unusually cheap despite geopolitical uncertainty, making yen OTM calls inexpensive portfolio insurance against two tail risks simultaneously: a sudden wave of Japanese capital repatriation that would force selling of US Treasuries and…
“buying yen calls for me today is essentially buying house insurance for your portfolio”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
JAPANESE BANK STOCKS
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
BOJ rate normalization has steepened Japan's yield curve by roughly 300 basis points (1-to-30yr), directly expanding bank net interest margins, while simultaneous government fiscal stimulus and rising corporate capex create a broad economic tailwind that…
“Japan financials have absolutely crushed it...monster performance by financials in Japan”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
International Dev
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Bank share performance is a leading indicator of economic health, and financials in Japan, Korea, China, and Canada are all outperforming while US banks trade sideways, pointing to healthier underlying activity internationally and making global financials an…
“in most international markets, banks are doing okay...perhaps that's not a bad place to redeploy capital”
90d +1.1%
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
LATIN AMERICAN EQUITIES
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
A durable rightward political shift across Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, and now Colombia is improving governance, attracting market-supportive policies, and driving growth of local pension fund demand, all of which argue for a re-rating of assets…
“deeply deeply undervalued...very exciting changes occurring all across Latin America”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
AI/SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Justifying $6.7T in projected AI capex through 2030 requires generating $2T per year in AI revenue—twice the entire global advertising industry—while investor positioning is crowded, valuations make no sense, and the only positive investment prism remaining…
“the valuations make no sense”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-06-28
CHINESE EQUITIES (SHANGHAI/SHENZHEN LISTED)
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
World-class Chinese companies are emerging for the first time in EVs, electricity storage, telecoms, and robotics, and Beijing's QE-like monetary and fiscal stimulus can drive equity market gains independently of the weak consumer economy—replicating the…
“the emergence of genuine world-class companies...this is new, this is like Japan in the 1960s”
There's Going To Be One Hell Of A Hangover When The Market Party Ends | Louis Gave
2026-05-07
China Equities
bullish
Macro Voices · video
A rising RMB adds currency return on top of 6-7% dividend yields in Asian stocks, creating a ~12% total return with limited risk that will attract local savings currently parked in Mag-7, Bitcoin, and gold
“6% dividend yield, 6% on the currency. That's 12% without taking too much risk.”
90d -2.2%
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
2026-05-07
SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR (BROAD)
bearish
Macro Voices · video
Semiconductors have surged from 10% to 17% of the S&P 500 in a dynamic eerily similar to energy stocks peaking at 16% in 2008 during peak-oil mania, suggesting the sector is a capital-intensive cyclical that is now over-loved and approaching a blow-off top
“there's for me as I look at semiconductors today, there's a strong sense of deja vu”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
OIL FORWARD CURVE (6-MONTH)
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Market is pricing in Hormuz reopening within weeks, but Iran's revenue incentives from tolls and elevated oil sales mean the strait stays effectively closed longer than consensus expects, making the 6-month forward price too low
“the market is very much pricing in the idea that the Straits of Hormuz are going to reopen... I'm personally dubious”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-05-07
KS
bullish
Macro Voices · video
Samsung will be the most profitable company in the history of capitalism this year yet still trades at a single-digit PE, which is not fully priced in for that level of earnings
“Samsung is going to be the biggest, most profitable company that's ever been this year, and I don't think it's fully priced in”
MacroVoices #531 Louis-Vincent Gave: Semiconductors, AI & Iran Conflict
2026-03-12
long GLOBAL EQUITIES / long GOLD / long ENERGY
other
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
In a structurally inflationary world the classic 60/40 fails because bonds no longer hedge equity drawdowns — energy price spikes cause inflationary busts, so energy replaces bonds as the portfolio hedge and precious metals replace the deflation-hedge role of…
“60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy — the 60/40 no longer works”
90d -8.9% · 180d -0.1%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2026-03-12
short Big Tech / long Em Equities
pair
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
US equities are 70% of MSCI on 22% of global GDP, with extreme investor positioning, stretched valuations, and deteriorating relative momentum — while EM offers better fundamentals, cheap valuations, and near-zero positioning, making a rotation from US to EM…
“I think we did start a period of underperformance in 2025”
90d -1.4% · 180d +0.5%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
Binary Iran outcome is bad for bonds either way: war continuation is inflationary and disrupts supply chains, while regime change redirects Gulf sovereign wealth away from Treasuries toward Middle East reconstruction, driving real rates higher
“if truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second”
90d +1.1% · 180d +1.7%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
US was already in a dollar bear market before the Iran conflict, and a protracted war creates political blowback for Trump given 70% public opposition, further undermining the dollar rebound
“I've been a US dollar bear — I don't think this lasts”
90d -1.3% · 180d -1.1%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2026-03-12
RMB
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
RMB was deliberately suppressed for 8 years while China de-Westernized its supply chains; now that trade war is won and China no longer needs currency suppression as industrial policy, massive PPP mispricing vs US (US prices +35% in 5 years, China flat to…
“the renminbi is just stupidly, stupidly undervalued — the obvious trade of the coming years”
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
Said again: 2026-05-07 (Macro Voices)
2026-03-12
Em Equities
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
EM offers a far better mix of fundamentals, positive momentum, near-zero investor positioning, and extreme valuations relative to the US, which is ~70% of MSCI but only ~22% of global GDP
“Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa — these markets are super exciting”
90d +13.5% · 180d +21.5%
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2026-03-12
SEABORNE COAL PRODUCERS (INDONESIA, SOUTH AFRICA, AUSTRALIA)
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Hormuz closure forces Taiwan (10 days of nat gas left), Japan, Korea, and Europe to urgently substitute coal for cut-off natural gas and oil, creating an immediate demand surge for coal exporters in these countries
“if you're a coal producer in Indonesia, South Africa, Australia — all of a sudden you're getting tons of orders”
Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
2026-03-04
long China Equities / short SPX
pair
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Rotate from US equities to China equities — US fails three of four investment pillars (momentum stalled, extreme overvaluation, record overcrowding at 70% of MSCI vs 22% of GDP), while China passes all four (cheap fundamentals, improving momentum, attractive…
“I don't feel the need to be in the US”
90d -5.4% · 180d -7.1%
20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
Energy replaces bonds as a 20% portfolio sleeve in an inflationary, geopolitically fragmented world where the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio has broken down
“60 equity 20% energy and 20% precious metals — bonds are the dead asset class”
90d +3.8% · 180d +15.4%
20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts 20% of global oil supply yet spot prices remain near $73 — market is not pricing in an extended disruption, making current levels look cheap relative to the supply risk
“$73 hardly seems expensive. I would have thought oil would be 90 or 100 bucks.”
90d +49.9% · 180d +46.0%
20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
Said again: 2026-03-12 (Louis-Vincent Gave), 2026-05-07 (Macro Voices)
Steepening yield curve (short rates falling, long rates rising) will weaken USD and push Western savers into gold; central banks already flipped to net buyers after Russian reserve seizure, and Western retail is still absent — untapped demand cohort remaining
“Gold is a hedge against wrong monetary policy, especially a hedge against 0% interest rates”
90d -12.7% · 180d -13.4%
20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
Said again: 2026-03-12 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
2026-03-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
Structural bear market in bonds persists because geopolitical conflict drives inflation and unproductive government spending, preventing bonds from providing inflation protection or portfolio diversification
“Will they be a good inflation hedge? Absolutely not.”
90d +2.8% · 180d +5.6%
20% Of Global Oil Cut Off; Which Assets risk Collapse? | Louis Gave
Chinese open-source AI (DeepSeek, Qwen) has entered the market for free, with 80% of startups already using Chinese LLMs because of zero cost, destroying the US AI subscription monetization model and making Nvidia's valuation a price anomaly
“I think a massive price anomaly is the share price of Nvidia, and the share price of Facebook”
90d -3.9% · 180d -20.7%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
Trump's Monroe Doctrine pivot — underwriting Argentina, pressuring Venezuela, redirecting strategic focus to Latin America — means US financial and geopolitical backing of the region, while yields have already dropped 200-300bps with another 300bps to go as…
“I think it's people are not thinking through this. This is so bullish Latin America.”
90d +0.7% · 180d -0.2%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-12-15
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China now holds the lowest global costs of electricity, labor, and capital plus a massively undervalued currency after 7 years of forced supply-chain de-Westernization — the 'China uninvestable' narrative has structurally reversed since 2024 as these…
“China has been outperforming really quite handsomely since 2024. Most people don't realize it.”
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
Said again: 2026-03-12 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
The market has already stopped rewarding AI capital spending — Oracle and SoftBank both broke the pattern — and the entire US AI profit model is unviable when China provides equivalent capability open-source at zero cost; this is a classic late-bull-market…
“when China enters a room, profits walk out. And that if you're competing with China, you've taken a wrong turn in your life”
90d +3.0% · 180d +8.2%
Louis Vincent-Gave: China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance
2025-08-05
China Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
All five prisms check out — fundamentals strong (record trade surplus, cheap energy/capital/labor), valuations attractive versus US, momentum solid for 18 months, investor positioning still light, and government backstops every 10% dip — combined with a…
“Fundamentals are good, valuations are attractive, momentum is positive, investor positioning is light, and government support is there.”
90d +5.8% · 180d +5.2% · 1y -2.4%
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
Dovish Fed trajectory plus a structural shift in USD correlation — now positively correlated to global risk — makes US assets less attractive to foreign capital, reinforcing a self-fulfilling downtrend that breaks only with a super-hawkish Fed or a major…
“We now live in a weak US dollar world. That means you need to own different types of assets than the ones you've owned for the past 14 years.”
90d -2.4% · 180d -1.3% · 1y -5.4%
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
International Dev
bullish
Wealthion · video
Weak-dollar regimes historically cause balance-sheet expansion globally, boosting financials; financials have already been the best-performing sector in virtually every market except the US since 2022 and that dynamic continues
“Pick any market and financials have typically been the best performing sector.”
90d +8.6% · 180d +18.4% · 1y +28.5%
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structurally weak USD historically benefits EM more than any other asset class by giving local central banks room to ease, and the cycle has already started with EM in a confirmed bull market
“Dollar down typically helps emerging markets more than most asset classes. And sure enough emerging markets do seem to be in a bull market.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
2025-08-05
LATIN AMERICA EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
A weak dollar unlocks local central bank easing across the entire region; every Latin American country should cut 100–400 bps over the next 18 months, creating a massive and broad monetary tailwind
“Latin America is in a massive bull market, which always happens when the US dollar weakens.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
Weak-dollar environments historically lift commodities broadly, and the current cycle is already confirming that pattern with commodities grinding higher across the board — the exception being oil/energy which has not participated
“Typically commodities grind higher. All the commodities are grinding higher except for oil and energy.”
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Dollar’s Breaking? China’s Winning? The End of U.S. Dominance?
Four consecutive down years in bonds reflect permanent impairment of trust driven by confiscation of Russian assets, runaway fiscal deficits at full employment, and accelerating weaponization of the dollar under Trump — none of these tailwinds are reversing
“for the first time in history you have had four consecutive down years in bonds”
90d -1.0% · 180d -4.8% · 1y -5.2%
Louis-Vincent Gave: How the US-China Trade War Changed the Dollar Forever
The sequential loss of confidence — first in Treasuries, now in Mag 7 — is collapsing the dollar's role as the default home for excess global savings, accelerated by Trump's instinct to weaponize dollar access against adversaries and even allies
“I may not even want to own the dollar — that's the phase we're now in”
90d +0.3% · 180d -1.9% · 1y -3.5%
Louis-Vincent Gave: How the US-China Trade War Changed the Dollar Forever
Central banks have become price-insensitive structural buyers of gold as a direct consequence of US dollar weaponization (Russian asset confiscation, sanctions) and loss of confidence in US Treasuries, providing a durable bid regardless of price
“central banks tend to be price insensitive buyers... now central banks that are price insensitive buyers of gold”
90d +4.0% · 180d +24.6% · 1y +47.0%
Louis-Vincent Gave: How the US-China Trade War Changed the Dollar Forever
2025-04-13
Big Tech
bearish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
$200B in AI capex likely to be written off, rising global tax risk as trade war escalates, and the structural rotation out of 'tech-as-bond-substitute' is only beginning as investors wake up to the earnings math
“these guys have just spent $200 billion on building AI solutions that they'll never get returns on”
90d -21.7% · 180d -29.2% · 1y -35.6%
Louis-Vincent Gave: How the US-China Trade War Changed the Dollar Forever
2025-04-13
HONG KONG FINANCIAL ASSETS / ASIA DOLLAR THEME
bullish
Louis-Vincent Gave · video
China is redirecting excess Asian dollars into Hong Kong rather than RMB internationalization, seeding an Asia Dollar market analogous to the Eurodollar market London captured in the 1950s–60s, making Hong Kong the coming financial boom city for…
“Hong Kong is going to have a boom very similar to the boom we've witnessed in London in the past 50 years”
Louis-Vincent Gave: How the US-China Trade War Changed the Dollar Forever
2025-01-28
long SPX / short SPX
ratio
Wealthion · video
The US market is severely distorted by extreme mega-cap concentration, making the equal-weighted S&P 500 a far more attractive exposure than the cap-weighted index where six names each consume 6% of the portfolio at stretched valuations.
“if I was going to buy the US I'd buy the equally weighted S&P 500 more than the market weighted”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
Oil inventories are at record lows, global stimulus (especially in China) supports commodity demand, and protectionism plus fiscal pump-priming in the US are inflationary; energy is the best portfolio cushion because it hedges the scenario where oil grinds…
“today the best cushion you can have is not government bonds, I'm not even sure it's gold anymore, I think the best cushion you can have is energy”
90d -6.6% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +15.6%
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
2025-01-28
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
China sits at bottom-quartile valuations with explicit policy support, PBOC-driven QE pushing bond yields to record lows (a tailwind for equities), and the dividend yield-bond yield spread at an all-time high that structurally forces domestic pension funds…
“buy the cheap market with falling interest rates and policy support every day of the week and twice on Sunday”
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
Said again: 2025-04-13 (Louis-Vincent Gave)
Apple has not grown sales in four years yet trades at roughly 35x earnings, making it an unattractive position to hold at a 6% index weight.
“Apple that hasn't grown its sales for four years now and that is trading at whatever it is 35 times earnings”
90d +11.7% · 180d +9.9% · 1y -8.1%
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
Showing the 60 most recent of 90 tracked stances.
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