Investors / stance tracking
What David Rosenberg is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowEconomist — Rosenberg Research
Economist
127 dated public stances tracked since 2017-06-20, most recently 2026-10-20. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Rosenberg's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Rosenberg is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
127
tracked stances
65
themes
7
side flips
2026-10-20
last heard
Returns 90d +0.9% 55% correct · 62 calls · 180d +1.6% 49% correct · 59 calls · 1y +4.7% 56% correct · 48 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | USTS | bullish | -1.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | SPX | bearish | -2.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | -3.9% | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | MSFT | bullish | +4.3% | +22.5% | — |
| 2026-03-05 | GOLD | owns | -12.5% | -14.9% | — |
| 2026-03-05 | ENERGY | bullish | +4.6% | +16.3% | — |
| 2026-03-05 | DEFENSE | bullish | -6.3% | -5.9% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | USTS | bullish | +1.3% | -0.2% | — |
| 2025-12-19 | SPX | bearish | +3.1% | -9.2% | — |
| 2025-12-19 | SILVER | bullish | +7.8% | -0.5% | — |
| 2025-12-19 | High Yield | bearish | -0.1% | -1.7% | — |
| 2025-12-19 | Gold Miners | bullish | -4.9% | -3.2% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | IALT | bullish | +6.8% | +14.1% | — |
| 2025-11-03 | GOLD | owns | +15.8% | +12.5% | — |
| 2025-06-09 | USD | bearish | +0.2% | -2.7% | -5.8% |
| 2025-06-09 | SILVER | bullish | +12.3% | +57.9% | +76.7% |
| 2025-06-09 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | +6.2% | +5.1% | +4.2% |
| 2025-06-09 | Gold Miners | bullish | +29.0% | +51.9% | +49.9% |
| 2025-06-09 | GOLD | bullish | +9.2% | +25.7% | +27.4% |
| 2025-06-09 | European Equities | bullish | +3.4% | +7.2% | +16.8% |
| 2025-06-09 | DEFENSE | bullish | +8.3% | +12.4% | +26.9% |
| 2025-06-05 | SPX | bearish | -8.9% | -15.6% | -25.8% |
| 2025-06-05 | HOUSING | bearish | -18.7% | -13.2% | -8.7% |
| 2024-12-05 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -2.7% | -7.8% | -2.3% |
| 2024-11-15 | USTS | bullish | +0.5% | +1.9% | +7.5% |
| 2024-11-15 | SPX | bearish | -4.4% | -1.0% | -15.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | GOLD | bullish | +14.3% | +23.9% | +57.1% |
| 2024-10-04 | USD | bearish | -8.1% | -3.7% | -0.7% |
| 2024-08-27 | long Commodities Broad / short INDUSTRIALS | pair | -6.0% | +0.8% | -8.2% |
| 2024-08-27 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -4.4% | -6.3% | -7.7% |
| 2024-08-27 | DEFENSE | bullish | +5.8% | +3.8% | +38.6% |
| 2024-08-27 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | -3.7% | +1.3% | -0.7% |
| 2024-08-27 | BANKS | bearish | -19.6% | -7.7% | -19.1% |
| 2024-07-09 | USTS | bullish | +3.1% | -0.1% | +4.6% |
| 2024-07-09 | Japan Equities | bullish | +1.5% | -2.2% | +7.2% |
| 2024-07-09 | GOLD | bullish | +11.7% | +11.3% | +39.8% |
| 2024-07-09 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +1.1% | -2.7% | +0.7% |
| 2023-05-25 | long Long Dur Treasuries / long GOLD | other | -2.6% | -2.6% | +7.2% |
| 2023-05-25 | SPX | bearish | -7.2% | -10.1% | -29.5% |
| 2023-05-25 | India Equities | bullish | +6.9% | +9.0% | +30.8% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 62 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-08-21 → bullish2026-10-10
Em Equities — bearish2022-12-16 → bullish2026-09-14
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-06-19 → bearish2026-08-21
Commodities Broad — bearish2022-12-16 → bullish2024-07-09
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 10 | 9 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-10 | |
| SPX | 9 | 9 bearish | 2026-10-10 | |
| GOLD | 8 | 8 bullish | 2026-08-08 | |
| USD | 5 | 1 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-09-02 | |
| USTS | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-10-01 | |
| DEFENSE | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-03-05 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-20
long UTILITIES EQUITIES / long HEALTHCARE / long REITS
basket
Julia La Roche Show (feed) · video
Defensive rate-sensitive sectors — utilities, healthcare, and REITs — offer dual protection: direct upside from the rate cuts Rosenberg expects over the next 12 months via a bull yield-curve steepener, plus recession-resilient cash flows if growth turns down…
David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%
2026-10-16
Big Tech
bearish
RiskReversal Media · video
AI capex ROI increasingly questioned as three of four hyperscalers went free cash flow negative, circular AI financing inflates reported earnings via mark-to-market stakes, concentration more extreme than dot-com peak, and big cap tech is the last…
“the next shoe to drop is going to be big cap tech”
David Rosenberg: The AI "Mania" Is More Extreme Than 1999
2026-10-14
long BASE METALS / long ENERGY / long GOLD
basket
David Rosenberg (newest) · video
Hard assets — base metals, energy infrastructure, and gold — offer supply/demand-driven returns independent of the interest rate story, with favorable expected supply/demand curves ahead
“I'm also thinking about commodities, principally base metals, pipelines, a lot of energy infrastructure”
Hot Inflation Lifts Fed Rate-Hike Bets
2026-10-14
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
bearish
David Rosenberg (newest) · video
New home prices are down 7.5% year-over-year and existing home sale prices have fallen sequentially three straight months, with shelter deflation not yet fully filtering through CPI lags — the $50 trillion asset class is cracking
“residential property is not a good place to be in right now”
Hot Inflation Lifts Fed Rate-Hike Bets
Said again: 2026-10-14 (Jim Bianco (newest))
2026-10-14
US EQUITY MARKET (LARGE-CAP CONCENTRATION)
bearish
Jim Bianco (newest) · video
Ten companies now comprise over 40% of total market cap — exceeding even the late-1990s concentration level of under 30% — while the economy shows near-zero employment growth and declining real wages, creating unprecedented divergence that must mean-revert
“I have not seen such widespread imbalances, divergences, and extremes”
CPI and the AI Trade | Bloomberg Surveillance
2026-10-10
long CANADIAN EQUITIES / short SPX
pair
David Rosenberg · video
Canada is a direct torque on global commodity demand and trades at far less stretched valuations than AI-driven US equities, making Canadian equities the preferred equity allocation on a relative basis
“I would be in Canada ahead of the US... we're so rich in raw materials”
David Rosenberg on Trump, Carney & the Economic Storm Facing Canada
Shiller CAPE above 40 for five consecutive months, top-10 concentration at over 40% of the index, extreme cross-sector AI correlations leaving fewer places to hide, and narrowing breadth with 40%+ of S&P already in bear market signal a market at or past its…
“we are at or very close to a peak... we're in extra innings right now”
David Rosenberg on Trump, Carney & the Economic Storm Facing Canada
Said again: 2026-10-15 (David Rosenberg), 2026-10-16 (RiskReversal Media), 2026-10-20 (Julia La Roche Show (feed))
2026-10-10
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
David Rosenberg · video
Economy will slow and force the Fed to cut rates next year rather than hike, surprising a market where net speculative short positioning in bonds is at extreme levels, setting up a contrarian bull-steepener rally
“I'm bullish on bonds which I am by the way I'm probably the only one in the world that still is”
David Rosenberg on Trump, Carney & the Economic Storm Facing Canada
Said again: 2026-10-14 (David Rosenberg (newest)), 2026-10-15 (David Rosenberg), 2026-10-22 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-10
US FINANCIALS
bearish
David Rosenberg · video
US bank profits are driven by AI-related financing deals, creating high correlation to an AI bubble, and when the bubble bursts financials will be among the hardest hit with no defensive qualities
“We are not long financials for sure... tied into this AI trade and I do believe it's a bubble”
David Rosenberg on Trump, Carney & the Economic Storm Facing Canada
2026-10-10
SOUTHEAST ASIA EQUITIES
owns
David Rosenberg · video
Southeast Asian equities offer diversification away from AI-correlated US markets with minimal AI-bubble overweight exposure, making them a safe harbor if the US tech bubble deflates
“mostly in Southeast Asia... that's been a home run for us”
David Rosenberg on Trump, Carney & the Economic Storm Facing Canada
The market has priced in four more Fed rate hikes that the Fed itself never signaled, and with no evidence of wage growth accelerating the inflation is not self-reinforcing, making front-end yields too high relative to the likely policy path
“I've already owned a lot of two-year notes because I don't think the Fed's going to be raising rates four times”
MacroVoices #552 David Rosenberg: Navigating The Noise
Said again: 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-10 (David Rosenberg), 2026-10-14 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-14 (Jim Bianco (newest)), 2026-10-20 (Julia La Roche Show (feed))
2026-09-17
European Equities
bullish
Excess Returns · video
European stock markets are evenly balanced across all sectors without the 40%-in-one-sector concentration risk of the S&P 500, valuations are compelling, and the ECB has largely completed its tightening cycle — providing diversification away from…
“what I like about the European stock market is that it's evenly balanced across all sectors — it doesn't have the concentration risks”
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
2026-09-17
JAPANESE EQUITIES
bullish
Excess Returns · video
Japan offers equity exposure outside the US AI concentration trade at more attractive valuations, with a different monetary policy trajectory (BOJ tightening) and exposure to Asian growth without over-concentration in semiconductors
“we have a strong toehold and had for some time in Asia and we do like Japan a lot”
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
2026-09-17
US CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR
bullish
Excess Returns · video
Consumer staples have by far the lowest correlation to the generative AI trade among S&P sectors, providing genuine diversification in a market where utilities, industrials, and discretionary have all become proxies for the same concentrated AI bet
“the only two sectors in the S&P where you can hide will be consumer staples and healthcare”
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
Broad Southeast Asian exposure (Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand) offers better valuation and dividend yields than US equities with far less sector concentration, allowing Asian participation without an outsized concentrated bet on Korea/Taiwan semiconductors
“you can through an ETF water that down and focus more on Southeast Asia — Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand”
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
2026-09-17
RARE EARTHS
owns
Excess Returns · video
Long-term supply deficits are structurally widening as demand from electrification and technology outpaces constrained mining capacity, making rare earths a secular commodity story with pricing power independent of near-term inflation cycles
“we have rare earths — those are long-term secular stories because of long-term forecasts of where the supply deficit's going to be”
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
2026-09-14
long USTS / long GOLD
hedge
David Rosenberg · video
A barbell between deeply undervalued long-duration Treasuries and hard assets (commodities, gold, EM) simultaneously captures the bond rally from Fed overtightening reversal and the USD bear market, with each leg hedging the other's macro risk.
“It's almost this barbell between very cheap fixed income...barbelled with hard assets.”
The Inflation Data Doesn’t Match The Real Economy, Here's Why | David Rosenberg
Supply deficits are forecast across most of the commodity sector; goods inflation persists even as services deflate; tangible assets are inversely correlated to the USD, which Rosenberg expects in a long-term downtrend; favorable supply-demand dynamics are…
“The stuff that you can see, touch and feel that's tangible — it has a very favorable supply demand outlook and is inversely correlated to my top conviction call.”
The Inflation Data Doesn’t Match The Real Economy, Here's Why | David Rosenberg
Said again: 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns)
2026-09-14
Em Equities
owns
David Rosenberg · video
EM and Japan equities are inversely correlated to the US dollar, which Rosenberg expects to enter a prolonged bear market; global diversification away from AI-concentration-heavy S&P 500 offers better risk-adjusted exposure for a world decoupling from US…
“Most of our equity exposure is in emerging markets and in Japan.”
The Inflation Data Doesn’t Match The Real Economy, Here's Why | David Rosenberg
2026-09-02
long URANIUM / long RARE EARTHS / long ENERGY / long BASE METALS
basket
David Rosenberg · video
A new secular theme of security of supply across energy, food, and critical materials — amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war, Hormuz closure, and El Niño — creates durable pricing power for uranium, rare earths, pipelines, and base metals as a group
“security of supply when it comes to food and energy and critical minerals”
Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg
The US dollar is in the early stages of a fundamental secular bear market, evidenced by the portfolio being deliberately constructed 70% inversely correlated to the dollar to capture this multi-year trend
“the US dollar we are in the early stages of a fundamental bare market”
Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg
Said again: 2026-09-14 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns)
Supply-demand balance structurally favors higher oil prices independent of the Iran war escalation, and oil serves as a portfolio hedge against both geopolitical risk and goods-sector inflation in an environment where the Fed is ignoring commodity price…
“the supply demand balance is still going to favor higher oil prices”
Yields Explode, Fed To ‘Make A Big Blunder’ Hiking Into Oil Shock | David Rosenberg
Said again: 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns)
Rosenberg plays the AI theme through emerging Asia rather than US tech ETFs, capturing semiconductor exposure (Korea, Taiwan) at far lower valuations and without the bubble-level investor behavior surrounding US AI names.
“We decided to play AI differently — by being long emerging Asia”
David Rosenberg: “Every Bubble Pops” — Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-09-01
US TECH / AI EQUITIES (SHORT / AVOID)
bearish
Wealthion · video
The AI boom is a bubble driven by investor behavior rather than technology itself — margin debt has surged 50% in a year to $1.5 trillion (double the market's 25% gain), bullish sentiment hit an all-time 78%, household equity allocation is at a record 73%…
“I don't mind calling it a bubble. Every bubble pops.”
David Rosenberg: “Every Bubble Pops” — Markets Aren’t Ready
2026-08-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
David Rosenberg · video
New Fed chair's inability to articulate a credible path to 2% inflation embeds a risk premium into duration, while surging long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers (now free-cash-flow negative) competes for capital at the long end of the curve—both forces…
“you don't want to own duration when you have that level of uncertainty”
David Rosenberg on whether he would bet against long-term Treasuries
Said again: 2026-09-02 (David Rosenberg)
Central bank buying has driven a secular bull market in gold since the 1999 Washington Agreement, CB demand runs 2-3% annually vs 1-1.5% supply growth, and the recent correction driven by real-rate and USD strength is temporary, creating a buying opportunity…
“I actually think this is actually a really good buying opportunity what's happened in the past few months”
David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
Said again: 2026-09-02 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-05 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-14 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns), 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-01 (Macro Voices), 2026-10-10 (David Rosenberg), 2026-10-14 (Jim Bianco (newest))
2026-08-08
India Equities
bullish
Excess Returns · video
India offers relative valuation appeal versus the historically overextended US CAPE and was named alongside Japan as among the most attractive equity markets globally for investors diversifying away from the US AI-bubble concentration.
“I would say India”
David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
2026-08-08
Japan Equities
bullish
Excess Returns · video
Japan's CAPE sits near a historical median (far below the US's 1.5th-percentile extreme) and the market lacks the AI-bubble sector concentration that makes most US sectors vulnerable to an unwind.
“Japan is not an expensive market at all. Relatively speaking, one of the most attractive in the world”
David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
Said again: 2026-10-10 (David Rosenberg)
2026-08-08
SOUTHEAST ASIA EQUITIES EX-KOREA/TAIWAN
bullish
Excess Returns · video
Southeast Asian markets outside Korea and Taiwan lack the AI-bubble sector concentration that ties most of the US market (and Korea/Taiwan) to a potential AI-trade unwind, providing equity exposure with a natural hedge against that risk.
“a lot of Southeast Asia that doesn't have a high AI representation is actually a very good place to be”
David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
A higher share of the US market now trades above 10x price-to-sales than at the 1999 tech bubble peak, AI infrastructure spending is historically extreme, and the re-equitization regime shift (more capital raises, fewer buybacks) removes a key structural…
“I uttered the B word...the bubble is in the price, and a heavy reliance on future monetization”
90d -2.4%
David Rosenberg | Trump Truce, Ballooning Bubble, Merrill Memories
Said again: 2026-09-02 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns)
The 2-year yield's 15bp post-FOMC surge overreacted — at 4.2% it sits 80bps above the Fed's own projected terminal rate, double the historical norm, while Rosenberg's out-of-consensus view is that the next Fed move is still a cut, not a hike.
“4.2%, more than 80 basis points above where the Fed funds target is projected to be...cheap as borscht”
90d -1.9%
David Rosenberg | Trump Truce, Ballooning Bubble, Merrill Memories
Said again: 2026-08-20 (Wealthion), 2026-09-02 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-14 (David Rosenberg), 2026-09-17 (Excess Returns)
2026-06-19
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
David Rosenberg · video
The AI CapEx boom mirrors every prior innovation mania — railways, electrification, fiber/dot-com — that reliably ended in overcapacity, price destruction, and broad deflation, making bonds the correct deflation hedge as equities trade at bubble valuations.
“we retain a good chunk of the Rosie model portfolio in good old boring bonds”
90d -3.9%
David Rosenberg | Trump Truce, Ballooning Bubble, Merrill Memories
Brent has already retraced ~90% of its war-induced run-up and fallen 35% from its April peak, but further downside is limited because depleted strategic reserves and ultra-low gas inventory levels must be replenished, creating structural demand at every dip.
“how much further prices can decline since...depleted strategic reserves...are going to have to get replenished”
David Rosenberg | Trump Truce, Ballooning Bubble, Merrill Memories
2026-03-05
long EUROPEAN AND ASIAN EQUITIES / short SPX
pair
David Rosenberg · video
European and Asian equities command superior valuations relative to the US, warranting a heavy structural overweight in non-US developed markets vs a deliberately lean US allocation
“we have 35% in Europe and Asia — they command just superior valuations”
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
Gold remains a portfolio hedge given macro fragility and fiscal imbalances, though gains have been partially booked; silver was fully exited when it began trading like a speculative asset
“we're still somewhere between 5 and 10% on gold and the gold miners”
90d -12.5% · 180d -14.9%
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
Hard assets that spin off recurring revenue streams offer cash-flow-supported, yield-oriented returns with lower dependence on equity multiple expansion in a fragile macro environment
“the hard assets that spin off a revenue stream — we're very cash flow sensitive — the pipelines, the utilities, energy infrastructure”
90d +4.6% · 180d +16.3%
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
2026-03-05
HEALTHCARE SECTOR
owns
David Rosenberg · video
Healthcare provides defensive positioning uncorrelated from the stretched AI/tech trade in an environment where consumer fragility and equity valuation risk are elevated
“we do like healthcare — we've been there”
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
The US-Iran conflict is a direct structural tailwind for defense, which has been one of the few equity sectors rising through the geopolitical turmoil
“aerospace defense to us has been a no-brainer and one of the few sectors to be going up through this conflict with Iran”
90d -6.3% · 180d -5.9%
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
2026-03-05
EQUAL-WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES
owns
David Rosenberg · video
Consumer staples offer defensive, yield-oriented exposure without the dangerous valuation concentration in mega-caps like Walmart and Costco that trade at elevated multiples
“one of our recent moves was into the equal weight consumer staple sector — we just don't want to own like two names”
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
Microsoft trades at an attractive multiple relative to other large-cap AI-era names and offers defensive growth characteristics — a contrast to Walmart where the valuation is too stretched
“there's another defensive growth company trading at a very attractive multiple called Microsoft”
90d +4.3% · 180d +22.5%
"Significant Strain" Ahead For The Economy | David Rosenberg
Fed is far behind the curve with unemployment heading to 6% and core inflation ex-tariffs near 2.2% and falling, meaning the front end will rally as the Fed is forced to cut toward 2%
“I like the front end of the curve for this year as a tradeable strategy”
90d +1.3% · 180d -0.2%
DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2026: Macroeconomic Outlook
Said again: 2026-03-05 (David Rosenberg)
2026-01-20
US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE / FED RATE CUTS
bullish
Jeffrey Gundlach · video
With unemployment projected to hit 6% and core inflation falling toward 1% by year-end, the Fed will be forced to cut the policy rate from current levels all the way to 2%, far more than the two cuts currently priced in
“I think we will close the year with the funds rate at 2%”
DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2026: Macroeconomic Outlook
Shiller CAPE at 40x is the 6th mega-bubble of the past century; at this multiple, historical expected returns are negative across every time horizon from 1 to 10 years, the equity risk premium is effectively zero, and 80% of bear market drawdowns come from PE…
“the future one year, three year, five year, and ten year returns in the S&P 500 are all negative across the board”
90d +3.1% · 180d -9.2%
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
Said again: 2026-01-21, 2026-03-05 (David Rosenberg)
2025-12-19
Gold Miners
bullish
David Rosenberg · video
Gold miners have significantly lagged spot gold and are currently priced for only ~$3,000/oz gold, creating optionality and downside protection relative to holding physical metal at current or higher spot prices.
“gold mining stocks are only priced for gold at just over $3,000 an ounce”
90d -4.9% · 180d -3.2%
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-19
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
bearish
David Rosenberg · video
Rising non-substitutable fixed costs — auto insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and electricity — are consuming household budgets and crowding out spending on discretionary goods and services, especially as tax refunds will be 100%+ absorbed by…
“which area of the stock market would I avoid for next year, I would avoid consumer discretionary”
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-19
CANADIAN PIPELINES
owns
David Rosenberg · video
Power grid revamping and LNG expansion create durable throughput demand for pipeline infrastructure, and the asset class is not correlated with the oil price, which Rosenberg sees as having a weak outlook potentially breaking to $40.
“we have Canadian pipelines. We have a big position there”
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-19
High Yield
bearish
David Rosenberg · video
Credit spreads are pricing a corporate default rate decline from 6% to 3%, which Rosenberg views as unrealistic given deteriorating labor markets, rising small business stress, and an aggressive private and public refinancing calendar ahead in 2026.
“credit spreads are just stupid tight”
90d -0.1% · 180d -1.7%
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-19
NATURAL GAS
bullish
David Rosenberg · video
AI-driven electricity demand and LNG export expansion create structural demand for natural gas, while prices near $5 have proven sticky, the commodity is uncorrelated with oil (which faces weak fundamentals), and a colder-than-normal winter adds near-term…
“I wouldn't be surprised if that's going to be the big winner of 2026”
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
Silver benefits from the same central-bank-driven precious metals macro tailwind as gold and should participate in the broader precious metals complex rally in 2026.
“you'll make money again in silver”
90d +7.8% · 180d -0.5%
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-19
US UTILITIES
bullish
David Rosenberg · video
Surging electricity demand from AI data centers and a secular power-grid revamp create durable revenue streams that are non-discretionary and cycle-resistant, while household spending is redirecting from consumer discretionary directly toward utility bills.
“maybe you're being better off being in utilities”
David Rosenberg: Markets Are Propped Up by the S&P 500 - and That’s the Risk for 2026
2025-12-15
IALT
bullish
Bloomberg ETF IQ · video
Equity portfolios are at historic concentration in cap-weighted benchmarks (top 10 stocks), so long-short market-neutral alternative strategies like IALT can deliver equity-like returns while diversifying that concentration risk without requiring a…
“people have a lot of concentration in their portfolios...how do I diversify my equity portfolio?”
90d +6.8% · 180d +14.1%
Looking Ahead to 2026 ETF Trends, Multi-Strategy ETFs by Size | ETF IQ 12/15/2025
2025-11-03
long USTS / long VOL
hedge
video
A Supreme Court ruling against Trump on tariffs is an underpriced tail risk that would simultaneously spike Treasury volatility (via ~$350B of deficit expansion and policy chaos) and equity volatility (knee-jerk risk-off + uncertainty about retaliatory…
“your best hedge would probably be buy the move index and buy the VEX”
Global central banks are in a secular reallocation back toward gold — vaults went from over 70% gold weighting down to ~10% over 20 years and are now just above 20% and climbing — creating structural demand that supports gold, silver, and leveraged miner…
“we probably have between gold, silver, and the miners in our model portfolio, we're over 20% exposed to precious metals”
90d +15.8% · 180d +12.5%
Said again: 2025-12-19 (David Rosenberg), 2026-01-21
2025-11-03
UK GILTS
owns
video
UK inflation expected to fall faster than consensus, fiscal tightening under Starmer contrasts sharply with US deficit expansion, forcing the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively than priced, while current elevated gilt yields offer better carry…
“we think the Bank of England is going to be forced to cut rates… we acted on it”
2025-11-03
JPY (JAPANESE YEN)
bullish
video
Fundamental valuation models show yen should trade at 120-130 versus the dollar, implying significant upside as dollar weakness accelerates and BoJ normalization continues
“our work shows it should be 120 to 130”
Gold's value is inversely proportional to certainty; with global fiscal deficits normalizing at emergency levels, USD in a bear market, and three-quarters of global central banks buying gold every month, the historical bull-market pattern projects a peak near…
“in this bull market the peak will be somewhere close to $6,000 an ounce”
90d +9.2% · 180d +25.7% · 1y +27.4%
David Rosenberg: Gold to $6,000 & Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power | Part II
Rising geopolitical tensions are forcing even historically pacifist nations like Japan to increase military budgets, creating visibility in defense order books and production globally — best accessed through a global (not US-only) defense ETF
“you look at the order books, you look at shipments and production, that is one part of the stock market I like a lot”
90d +8.3% · 180d +12.4% · 1y +26.9%
David Rosenberg: Gold to $6,000 & Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power | Part II
2025-06-09
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Wealthion · video
With the 10-year at ~4.5%, yields must rise 70bps (above the Oct 2023 cycle peak) to generate zero return, while a 70bp rally yields +10% — asymmetric convexity that is attractive given softening labor markets and decelerating underlying inflation
“up 70 beeps zero, down 70 beeps plus 10%”
90d +6.2% · 180d +5.1% · 1y +4.2%
David Rosenberg: Gold to $6,000 & Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power | Part II
2025-06-09
European Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
Europe offers better valuations, a strengthening currency, an ECB cutting rates with inflation already below 2%, and fiscal clarity — including a major defense-spending fiscal bill — without the political dysfunction weighing on US assets
90d +3.4% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +16.8%
David Rosenberg: Gold to $6,000 & Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power | Part II
2025-06-09
Gold Miners
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold miners are still trading at huge discounts to physical gold prices despite the same macro tailwinds — rising gold, USD weakness, and central bank buying — providing a leveraged and undervalued way to capture the gold thesis
90d +29.0% · 180d +51.9% · 1y +49.9%
David Rosenberg: Gold to $6,000 & Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Power | Part II
Showing the 60 most recent of 127 tracked stances.
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