Investors / stance tracking
What Guy Adami is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowTrader & CNBC Fast Money panelist
40 dated public stances tracked since 2018-07-19, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Guy Adami's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Guy Adami is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
40
tracked stances
33
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Returns 90d +16.6% 80% correct · 5 calls · 180d +10.5% 80% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | SMH | bearish | -18.4% | -45.0% | — |
| 2026-01-14 | RIG | bullish | +40.9% | +22.6% | — |
| 2026-01-05 | MPC | bullish | +38.7% | +55.1% | — |
| 2022-03-25 | SPX | bearish | +16.1% | +15.9% | +10.9% |
| 2019-11-26 | BABA | bullish | +5.9% | +3.6% | +42.6% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-09-03 → bullish2026-10-15
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-22 | |
| GOOGL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-28 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-15 | |
| SMH | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-09-24 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-10-30 | |
| AAPL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-12 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Crude oil prices are signaling real Middle East escalation rather than de-escalation, and equity markets have not adequately priced in this geopolitical risk even after the VIX move higher
“It's not bullish for the equity market... that is not priced in”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 17:18 ET (5 min)
Healthcare is fairly valued relative to tech and set to benefit from rotation out of tech, with biotech specifically supported by an upcoming M&A wave
“I think biotech continues. I do think M&A is coming.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 17:28 ET (5 min)
Alphabet's search miss, weak free cash flow and unresolved questions about AI monetization warrant selling the shares despite their prior underperformance
“It's sell first, ask questions later.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 17:01 ET (5 min)
Said again: 2026-10-28 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
ServiceNow's demanding valuation is not supported by its slowing growth and weaker next-quarter guidance.
“This one is demanding, and I just don't think that growth supports it.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 17:26 ET (5 min)
FedEx's solid quarter supports holding near current levels, but the stock's rally and fuller valuation make trimming appropriate because results were not extraordinary.
“I don't think there's anything not to like here.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 17:31 ET (5 min)
Caterpillar has sold off roughly a third from highs and now trades at 23x next year's estimates, making valuation materially more attractive than it was one to two months ago
“I think enough's been taken out, where you can take a look at Cat”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-27 17:16 ET (5 min)
GM is cheap on valuation and the company has never been run better, making it an attractive hold at current levels
“GM is my auto company. I think it's very cheap”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-27 17:56 ET (5 min)
The technical breakout toward the analyst consensus target of 1075 prior all-time high is worth following despite stretched 43x fundamentals, because the chart provides a clear level to trade against.
“I'll go with it on the technicals, but the fundamentals I think are a little difficult”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 17:53 ET (5 min)
Northrop Grumman is showing bullish technical momentum signaling an imminent move higher
“Northrop Grumman looks like it's gonna do what, man? Party”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 17:58 ET (5 min)
The home builder rally on falling rates is the wrong read — the real driver is economic slowdown and potential stagflation, and you do not own home builders in that environment
“You don't own home builders in that environment.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 17:23 ET (5 min)
Despite broad caution on home builders, DHI stands apart due to a $5B buyback, relative strength (green on the year), and technically impressive bounces off recent lows that merit a small initial position
“I would probably start to dip a toe.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 17:23 ET (5 min)
CoreWeave failed to hold the ~$60 support level despite upgrades and positive AI news flow, and with credit concerns now dominating the neo-cloud narrative, the prior low near $35 is the next technical level in play
“what's in play is that prior low... I want to say that's like 35 bucks or so”
The Market Is Moving Beneath Investor's Feet
Volume patterns signal a tradable bounce from current support levels, and NVIDIA holding 10.5% of shares provides a stable floor against further selling pressure
“I still think there's a tradable bounce coming”
Fast Money — 2026-10-21 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
Said again: 2026-10-27 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-27 (CNBC (uncut))
Free cash flow remains positive and margins are intact after the market over-penalized IBM last quarter; enterprise AI deployment is gaining traction and the stock has further upside from current levels
“I still think this stock sort of can rally from here for sure...there's more in the tank”
Fast Money — 2026-10-21 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
Memory cyclicality has not been engineered out despite the market narrative; if compute demand wanes even modestly, these stocks will take the elevator down sharply given how much appreciation has already priced in a structural growth story
“watch how quickly these things take the elevator down — I absolutely believe that”
Compute Demand Isn’t Unlimited (And Credit Markets Know It)
Tesla has become a de facto tracking stock for SpaceX; with a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger now the consensus expectation, buying Tesla is the accessible way to gain exposure to SpaceX's AI and robotics upside
“if you're bullish in SpaceX you buy Tesla, I think that's what it really comes down to now”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-15 17:31 ET (30 min)
2026-10-15
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Outside reversal on historic bond volatility signals a short-term flight-to-quality bid that can sustain a rally in long-dated Treasuries even as the longer-term rate trend remains higher
“TLT reversal yesterday was very powerful… this TLT rally can last a little bit”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-15 17:01 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-22 (RiskReversal Media)
Google is roughly one month behind where Meta was before its Apple partnership announcement, is still below its all-time high, and reports earnings on October 27 where a similar strategic AI collaboration announcement is expected
“I think Google is probably a month behind where Facebook is... I think Google is the place to be”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-15 17:31 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-20 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), 2026-10-27 (CNBC (uncut))
Nikkei-reported 15-20% iPhone 18 component order cuts, combined with the prior earnings call's soft guidance (stock dropped 8%), and the stock approaching a third touch of an uptrend line from spring 2026 lows that could break toward 275 support
“I don't think now's the time to be piling in Apple”
If Not Now, Then When Will These AI Companies Go Public?
SMH shows a near-island-reversal topping pattern analogous to DRAM, with the prior high unviolated and a potential technical move back to the late-July/early-August low around $44.50
“you could even get a move back down to the late July, early August low, which I think was about what 44 and a half”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
Said again: 2026-11-02 (CNBC (uncut))
Meta's 40% move from 550 to 750+ in one month has already priced in the Muse personal-agent catalyst, creating a gap on the chart near the 200-day moving average that argues for a 50% retracement back to 680-685
“do we get back to 660? Yeah, you know what? I think there's a chance of that”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
Any diesel export ban would be short-lived because storage tanks would hit capacity and force production cuts, meaning refiners like Valero are net winners from crack-spread dynamics with U.S. refining capacity already above 98% and no new major refinery…
“who wins to this? The refiners win to this, Dan. That's basically what it comes down to”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
Geopolitical rhetoric around Iran and the Middle East is just talk that will persist through midterms, and there is a risk of escalation after elections when the administration no longer needs to manage domestic energy prices — both dynamics put a floor under…
“I think crude goes higher from here. I think it continues to do the grind higher”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
Said again: 2026-10-20 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
2026-09-14
CYBERSECURITY
bullish
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
AI safety alarms from Musk, Altman, and Amodei signal growing threat surface, which directly accelerates demand for cybersecurity spending, validating names like PANW and ZS making new highs
“I do think cybersecurity...is a place you want to be”
AI Will Kill Us All... It's Also A Great Excuse To Not IPO
Deere is a direct beneficiary of the global agricultural commodity super cycle, which is distinct from Caterpillar's AI-infrastructure exposure, and that decoupling will continue
“Deere wins to that...the decoupling of the two names which I think will continue”
AI Will Kill Us All... It's Also A Great Excuse To Not IPO
Global energy security is becoming a strategic priority as countries re-examine supply dependencies, supporting energy equities even as crude oil pulls back on any given day
“you got to stay with these names...I'm of a firm belief that energy stocks are still in play”
AI Will Kill Us All... It's Also A Great Excuse To Not IPO
Said again: 2026-10-12 (RiskReversal Media), 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-09-03
long BITCOIN / long MSTR / long HOOD
basket
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
Bitcoin and crypto-linked equities are risk assets that should outperform as confidence in the dollar erodes and the devaluation trade accelerates
“these are the risk assets in my opinion that should do well on the devaluation trade”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
2026-09-03
long DE / long MOS
basket
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
Global food prices surging create a structural tailwind for agricultural equipment makers and fertilizer producers as the primary beneficiaries of the global agriculture theme
“there's a global agriculture thing going on. Food prices are through the roof. And who's going to win?”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
2026-09-03
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
US debt at $40 trillion makes the interest cost unsustainable at current yields, bond vigilantes are winning, and Treasury's only viable path is to inflate and devalue its way out, pushing rates structurally higher
“I still think rates are going higher”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
Snowflake has rallied roughly 300% in six to seven months with no valuation cushion, and extended parabolic 'line job' moves in this stock have historically been reliable fades
“you fade the line jobs in this thing... There is no valuation cushion”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
Software sector headwinds are not over and IGV is likely to retrace to its level from a year ago at roughly $118 despite any near-term respite from rate relief
“I think IGV goes back to where we were a year ago this time which is about 118”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
Broadcom has broken through its 200-day moving average and an unfilled gap from April at approximately $310 remains open; following the principle that gaps are meant to be filled, AVGO is likely to pull back to that level
“that gap back in April, in this case it's probably somewhere around $310 or so... gaps are meant to be filled”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
Countries repatriating gold from US custody signals a loss of confidence in the dollar, and gold can rise alongside rates in the broader dollar devaluation trade
“gold can go up as well. This is sort of this deval trade”
Are We Past Peak Yield Concerns?
Said again: 2026-09-15 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), 2026-09-16 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Nvidia is trading at roughly 17x next-year earnings — a trough multiple relative to the broader market and its own peers — which is anomalous for a company posting 100%+ revenue growth and 75% gross margins, implying the stock is meaningfully undervalued
“why is it trading at a trough multiple to the broader market? Forget about its peers”
CNBC Today On NVIDIA Stock After NVIDIA Earnings - NVDA Update
Said again: 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
SMH is overextended at 25% above its 200-day moving average and just hit an all-time high, making it a sell-the-rally candidate
“SMH I think it's sell rallies is 25% above its 200-day moving average”
90d -18.4% · 180d -45.0%
Final Trade: SII, C, SMH, NVO
Transocean's recent momentum is intact and the trend continues to work in its favor
“Rigged I think continues to work here.”
90d +40.9% · 180d +22.6%
Final Trade: EL, RIG, XOM, C
Marathon Petroleum's large single-day move is the beginning of a much larger sustained move higher
“I know it had a big move today, Melissa, but I think it's beginning of something much larger.”
90d +38.7% · 180d +55.1%
Final Trade: NVO, JPM, COST, MPC
The rally is pricing in three optimistic outcomes simultaneously — Ukraine peace, no China-Taiwan escalation, and the Fed threading the needle — none of which Adami believes will materialize, making this a relief rally into max pain around 4600
“I don't think any of those things are going to happen. But right now, that's what the market's saying”
90d +16.1% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +10.9%
Fear is the Market Killer with Gavin Baker of Atreides Management (3/25/22)
Alibaba could be a catalyst for a stock that has been trading sideways, and Ant Financial sum-of-the-parts dynamics add hidden value
“this Alibaba thing may be a catalyst for a stock that's been sideways”
90d +5.9% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +42.6%
Final Trades: BABA, BX and more
Take-Two Interactive offers favorable risk/reward in a high-growth gaming space with downside capped near 100 and upside to 170, making it the best name in the sector on a risk-adjusted basis
“your downside is 100 so in risk reward I think take two is the best one out there”
Here were the biggest ideas out of the Delivering Alpha Conference
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