Investors / stance tracking

What Gavin Baker is saying

Founder & CIO, Atreides Management

35 dated public stances tracked since 2025-01-04, most recently 2026-08-14. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Gavin Baker's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Gavin Baker is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

tracked stances

themes

side flips

2026-08-14

last heard

Returns 90d -0.0% (n=25) · 180d +9.1% (n=12) · 1y +17.6% (n=7)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

META — bullish2025-08-09 → bearish2025-12-09

Most-argued themes

Theme	Stances	Mix	Last
NVDA	4	4 bullish	2026-08-04
GPU	2	2 bullish	2026-06-27
HBM	2	2 bullish	2026-08-04
META	2	1 bullish / 1 bearish	2025-12-09
MSFT	2	2 bullish	2026-08-04
XAI	2	2 bullish	2026-05-22

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-14 SPACEX (PRIVATE) bullish All-In Podcast · video

Grock is pareto dominant on quality/price benchmarks yet barely factors into investor conversations about SpaceX, creating an underappreciated valuation upside analogous to Anthropic scaling from $1B to $50B rapidly

“maybe people should start to consider Grock when they think about SpaceX”

Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback

2026-08-14 ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE bullish All-In Podcast · video

Software has troughed after an AI-fear-driven selloff; open source model competition at the model layer is a godsend for software companies by preventing any frontier-model monopoly from squeezing them, and returning PE bids confirm the sector has been…

“the rise of open source is a godsend for the American software industry”

Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback

2026-08-04 NVDA bullish Invest Like the Best · video

Nvidia trades at its lowest forward P/E in 10 years while GPU spot prices are up 50-60% in 6-7 months and every quantitative demand signal from Silicon Valley is accelerating, making the market's implicit assumption of significant over-earning look incorrect

“Nvidia's actually as we record this at its lowest forward PE of the last 10 years”

Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

2026-08-04 SPACEX bullish Invest Like the Best · video

SpaceX's potential compute buildout (possibly approaching 8 gigawatts) is almost entirely absent from consensus estimates of ~$73B revenue, and Grok 4.5 plus the Cursor acquisition have materially improved fundamentals since IPO with the market not reflecting…

“very little is built in from my perspective to that stock for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on”

Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

2026-08-04 MSFT bullish Invest Like the Best · video

Hyperscaler operating cash flows accelerated from ~28% to ~35% (adjusted for one-timers) this quarter, and as contracted compute reprices toward spot rates the installed base generates materially more cash flow, potentially funding the entire buildout without…

“operating cash flows go up and you can fund most of this out of operating cash flows. Maybe all of it”

Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

2026-08-04 HBM bullish Invest Like the Best · video

Long-Term Agreement game theory makes memory pricing sticky because any hyperscaler that breaks an LTA risks losing allocations permanently in the next undersupply cycle, and more memory per flop is the single dominant axis for increasing token output, giving…

“if you break the LTA and then in the next two or three years for any reason leverage shifts back to the memory guys, you're out of business”

Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

2026-08-04 ASML bullish Invest Like the Best · video

The selloff in semi-cap equipment triggered by reports of China acquiring a DUV machine is likely an overreaction because DUV is roughly 25 years behind EUV capability and any impact on ASML orders would lag by years, giving the market time to cycle through…

“if this ever hits ASML's orders, maybe it hits it in 5 years and the market has forgotten about it multiple times along the way”

Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

2026-07-08 AI-EXPOSED MEGA-CAP TECH bullish Gavin Baker · video

AI mega-caps trade at the same multiple as five to six years ago and at a discount to consumer staples — a historically rare dislocation — while ROI on AI capex is demonstrably positive and agentic AI is arriving via Blackwell-class models, making the…

“the most AI exposed mega caps at pretty attractive valuations”

Episode 56: Gavin Baker - Managing Partner of Atreides Management

2026-07-08 SEMICONDUCTORS / AI INFRASTRUCTURE (WATTS AND WAFERS) bullish Gavin Baker · video

AI is far more computationally intensive than deterministic software, so silicon consumption compounds as AI scales; meanwhile a structural shortage of watts and wafers plus TSMC's bottleneck position constrains supply and should prevent the cyclical…

“semiconductors, watts and wafers are everything. And watts and wafers are my first loves”

Episode 56: Gavin Baker - Managing Partner of Atreides Management

2026-06-27 MU bullish All-In Podcast · video

DRAM/HBM is the defining AI bottleneck—only three companies can make it, new supply contracts with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks cover ~50% of revenue, and HBM will represent 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex next year, yet DRAM stocks remain…

“these stocks still trade cross-sectionally cheap relative to the rest of AI”

Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

2026-06-27 GPU bullish All-In Podcast · video

Open-source models shift economic value away from frontier-lab margins toward compute infrastructure, and this dynamic accelerates as Chinese open-weight models reach parity, so AI infrastructure companies—not the labs—are the structural beneficiaries

“open-source models are awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure”

Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

2026-06-11 NVDA bullish Bg2 Pod · video

In a watt-constrained world, Nvidia's tokens-per-watt advantage translates directly into customer revenue, making switching to ASICs economically inferior despite upfront cost savings — sustaining Nvidia's dominant market share against the widely-forecast 30%…

“if you build your factory with another chip, you may save some money, but you're going to have less revenue”

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang

2026-06-11 BROAD TECH / SEMICONDUCTORS (NEAR-TERM) neutral Bg2 Pod · video

Many stocks have gone 'straight up a cliff' and need to consolidate as CPI re-accelerates above 4%, AI token consumption seasonally plateaus in summer, and open-source token share shift creates a short-term headwind for frontier model revenue expectations

“the market particularly in the last two months has run up a very steep hill”

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang

2026-06-11 CRWE owns Bg2 Pod · video

NeoCloud AI compute providers benefit from structural compute shortage where demand for frontier-model training and inference is outstripping supply, driving monetization rates per gigawatt higher not lower

“CoreWeave is a huge business, right? That we're investors in”

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang

2026-06-07 REVOLUT (PRIVATE NEOBANK) bullish All-In Podcast · video

Revolut is a next-generation bank with a modern tech stack, tens of millions of customers, 14 lines of business, and is expanding into the US, making it a compelling play on unbundling legacy incumbents in a regulated market

“I got kind of curious. Maybe I should pick up some of that”

Inside the Private Stock Market Boom

2026-06-07 ARISTA NETWORKS / DRIVEATS (AI NETWORKING INFRASTRUCTURE, PRIVATE AND PUBLIC) bullish All-In Podcast · video

Disaggregation of AI inference workloads across specialized chips requires reinvented networking infrastructure, and companies like Arya and Driveats are positioned to benefit from this impending supercycle in AI data center networking

“We need to reinvent networking and Arya and Driveats are coming at it in a very different way”

Inside the Private Stock Market Boom

2026-05-22 NVDA bullish All-In Podcast · video

Nvidia is growing faster than hyperscaler capex and faster than Broadcom's AI revenue even ex-China, trades at low-to-mid teens earnings multiple, and the CPU business alone is tracking $20B/year, making the share-loss narrative unfounded

“Nvidia's AI business is growing faster than Broadcom's and faster than a lot of other companies”

90d +0.8%

SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

2026-05-22 ENERGY bullish All-In Podcast · video

America is the world's largest oil and gas producer and exporter, natural gas (the primary US electricity input) is down on the year while LNG costs are up 100-200% elsewhere, making US manufacturing and AI compute structurally cost-advantaged versus global…

“NG1 is down this year...input cost for electricity in the rest of the world is up 100-200%”

90d +7.9%

SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

2026-05-22 SPCX bullish All-In Podcast · video

SpaceX builds data centers dramatically faster and cheaper than anyone else, has a clear and growing offtake partner in Anthropic, GPUs will be allocated to whoever can turn them on fastest, and orbital compute is a multi-year growth optionality layer on top…

“15 billion from Anthropic is extraordinary”

90d -16.7%

SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

2026-05-22 XAI bullish All-In Podcast · video

Cursor's proprietary coding token dataset combined with access to Colossus compute produced Pareto-dominant Composer 2.5 in just 3-4 weeks of RL, and a new base model trained with cursor data plus full Colossus RL could make XAI/Cursor the dominant coding AI…

“boom, instantly their models are growing faster”

SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

2026-05-20 long DRAM / short SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT pair Gavin Baker · video

DRAM companies at mid-single-digit multiples vs semi-cap equipment at 40x forward earnings is a historically extreme dislocation (prior cycle peak was 5x vs 12x) driven by AI shortage conditions inflating the lowest-quality names; the two valuations cannot…

“semi-cap equipment companies trading at 40 times next quarter's annualized earnings and DRAM companies trading at mid single digit”

Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker

2026-05-15 AMZN bullish Sohn Investment Conference · video

Trainium is the most underestimated AI chip alternative because it made aggressive design choices and — alongside Nvidia — possesses one of only two functioning switched scale-up networks required to inference mixture-of-expert frontier models at scale…

“Trainium is for sure the most underestimated”

90d +0.4%

Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker

2026-05-15 HBM owns Sohn Investment Conference · video

Current memory upcycle resembles the mid-1990s true capacity cycle rather than a typical margin-peak sell signal, as structural AI compute shortages make the conventional 'sell at peak margins' playbook wrong for the first time in 25 years

“I've been hanging on to the memory stocks for dear life”

90d +6.1%

Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker

2026-05-15 long CRWV / long NBIS / long CRUSOE (PRIVATE) basket Sohn Investment Conference · video

Neo-cloud GPU cluster operators have durable competitive advantages because operating high-utilization GPU clusters is genuinely hard — like Formula 1 vs. overnight trucking — and drives 2-3x higher GPU utilization per hour than lower-quality providers, a…

“I absolutely think it's durable”

90d +7.5%

Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker

2025-12-09 NATURAL GAS POWER INFRASTRUCTURE bullish Gavin Baker · video

Natural gas is the only scalable near-term solution to the AI data center power constraint given nuclear timelines are impossibly long, abundant US fracked gas supplies are available, and turbine manufacturers (e.g. Caterpillar expanding capacity 75%) are…

“the solutions are natural gas and solar”