Investors / stance tracking
What Gavin Baker is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & CIO, Atreides Management
68 dated public stances tracked since 2022-03-25, most recently 2026-08-31. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Gavin Baker's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Gavin Baker is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
68
tracked stances
42
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-31
last heard
Returns 90d -0.5% 48% correct · 33 calls · 180d +6.0% 67% correct · 21 calls · 1y +31.5% 69% correct · 16 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | MSFT | bullish | +3.1% | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | ASML | bullish | -10.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-27 | MU | bullish | -5.5% | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | SPCX | bullish | -16.7% | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | ENERGY | bullish | +7.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | NVDA | bullish | -1.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | META | bullish | -10.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | GOOGL | bullish | -11.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | GEV | bearish | +1.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | ALAB | bullish | +5.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | long CRWV / long NBIS / long CRUSOE (PRIVATE) | basket | +7.5% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | AMZN | bullish | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | CRWV | bullish | -35.5% | -34.9% | — |
| 2026-03-20 | TSLA | bullish | +8.8% | -2.7% | — |
| 2025-12-09 | short CRM / short NOW / short HUBS / short GTLB (+1 legs) | basket | +32.8% | +33.7% | — |
| 2025-12-09 | MSFT | bullish | -16.6% | -15.9% | — |
| 2025-12-09 | META | bearish | +1.4% | +10.7% | — |
| 2025-10-30 | TSLA | bullish | -2.0% | -14.6% | -9.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | NVDA | bullish | -5.6% | +5.1% | +1.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | GOOGL | bullish | +19.5% | +24.4% | -0.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | SEMIS | bullish | +15.7% | +37.4% | +55.0% |
| 2025-08-09 | META | bullish | -18.8% | -12.4% | -22.1% |
| 2025-01-04 | NVDA | bullish | -36.9% | +6.6% | +25.9% |
| 2024-12-07 | ENERGY | bullish | -3.0% | -8.4% | +3.3% |
| 2024-12-07 | BITCOIN | bullish | -13.2% | +1.7% | -9.5% |
| 2024-08-07 | NVDA | bullish | +41.5% | +18.0% | +82.8% |
| 2024-08-07 | META | bullish | +17.2% | +42.9% | +56.4% |
| 2024-08-07 | GOOGL | bullish | +6.9% | +26.9% | +24.2% |
| 2024-08-07 | AAPL | bullish | +6.6% | +8.9% | +5.4% |
| 2024-07-01 | long GOOGL / long META / long MSFT | basket | -0.4% | +5.2% | +16.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | short CRM / short NOW / short TEAM | basket | -3.2% | -35.2% | -17.2% |
| 2023-06-19 | SEMIS | bullish | -3.6% | +14.1% | +82.2% |
| 2023-06-19 | NVDA | bullish | +0.4% | +14.3% | +209.6% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-08-31 | |
| META | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-05-20 | |
| GOOGL | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-05-20 | |
| GPU | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-06-27 | |
| ENERGY | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-05-22 | |
| MSFT | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-04 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Nvidia is the irreplaceable central bank of AI compute because it locked up 70-80% of the entire supply chain—fab capacity, DRAM, NAND, laser, capacitors—while its standardized data centers are uniquely financeable at near-NPV-positive economics for Jensen…
“The last 26 years have taught me not to bet against Jensen”
Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
2026-08-31
EV
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Compute supply is structurally undershooting demand through at least 2028 due to regulatory and permitting constraints, and hyperscalers with large GPU/TPU fleets are mispriced when valued on EV-to-net-PP&E—since net PP&E is effectively a compute fleet the…
“everybody's worried about oversupply. I'm more worried about massively under supply”
Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
2026-08-14
SPACEX (PRIVATE)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Grock is pareto dominant on quality/price benchmarks yet barely factors into investor conversations about SpaceX, creating an underappreciated valuation upside analogous to Anthropic scaling from $1B to $50B rapidly
“maybe people should start to consider Grock when they think about SpaceX”
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
2026-08-14
ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Software has troughed after an AI-fear-driven selloff; open source model competition at the model layer is a godsend for software companies by preventing any frontier-model monopoly from squeezing them, and returning PE bids confirm the sector has been…
“the rise of open source is a godsend for the American software industry”
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
2026-08-04
SPACEX
bullish
Invest Like the Best · video
SpaceX's potential compute buildout (possibly approaching 8 gigawatts) is almost entirely absent from consensus estimates of ~$73B revenue, and Grok 4.5 plus the Cursor acquisition have materially improved fundamentals since IPO with the market not reflecting…
“very little is built in from my perspective to that stock for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on”
Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker
Said again: 2026-08-31 (Gavin Baker)
Hyperscaler operating cash flows accelerated from ~28% to ~35% (adjusted for one-timers) this quarter, and as contracted compute reprices toward spot rates the installed base generates materially more cash flow, potentially funding the entire buildout without…
“operating cash flows go up and you can fund most of this out of operating cash flows. Maybe all of it”
90d +3.1%
Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker
Said again: 2026-08-31 (Gavin Baker)
The selloff in semi-cap equipment triggered by reports of China acquiring a DUV machine is likely an overreaction because DUV is roughly 25 years behind EUV capability and any impact on ASML orders would lag by years, giving the market time to cycle through…
“if this ever hits ASML's orders, maybe it hits it in 5 years and the market has forgotten about it multiple times along the way”
90d -10.8%
Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker
2026-07-08
AI-EXPOSED MEGA-CAP TECH
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
AI mega-caps trade at the same multiple as five to six years ago and at a discount to consumer staples — a historically rare dislocation — while ROI on AI capex is demonstrably positive and agentic AI is arriving via Blackwell-class models, making the…
“the most AI exposed mega caps at pretty attractive valuations”
Episode 56: Gavin Baker - Managing Partner of Atreides Management
2026-07-08
SEMICONDUCTORS / AI INFRASTRUCTURE (WATTS AND WAFERS)
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
AI is far more computationally intensive than deterministic software, so silicon consumption compounds as AI scales; meanwhile a structural shortage of watts and wafers plus TSMC's bottleneck position constrains supply and should prevent the cyclical…
“semiconductors, watts and wafers are everything. And watts and wafers are my first loves”
Episode 56: Gavin Baker - Managing Partner of Atreides Management
DRAM/HBM is the defining AI bottleneck—only three companies can make it, new supply contracts with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks cover ~50% of revenue, and HBM will represent 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex next year, yet DRAM stocks remain…
“these stocks still trade cross-sectionally cheap relative to the rest of AI”
90d -5.5%
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
2026-06-27
GPU
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Open-source models shift economic value away from frontier-lab margins toward compute infrastructure, and this dynamic accelerates as Chinese open-weight models reach parity, so AI infrastructure companies—not the labs—are the structural beneficiaries
“open-source models are awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure”
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
2026-06-11
BROAD TECH / SEMICONDUCTORS (NEAR-TERM)
neutral
Bg2 Pod · video
Many stocks have gone 'straight up a cliff' and need to consolidate as CPI re-accelerates above 4%, AI token consumption seasonally plateaus in summer, and open-source token share shift creates a short-term headwind for frontier model revenue expectations
“the market particularly in the last two months has run up a very steep hill”
The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang
2026-06-11
CRWE
owns
Bg2 Pod · video
NeoCloud AI compute providers benefit from structural compute shortage where demand for frontier-model training and inference is outstripping supply, driving monetization rates per gigawatt higher not lower
“CoreWeave is a huge business, right? That we're investors in”
The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang
2026-06-07
REVOLUT (PRIVATE NEOBANK)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Revolut is a next-generation bank with a modern tech stack, tens of millions of customers, 14 lines of business, and is expanding into the US, making it a compelling play on unbundling legacy incumbents in a regulated market
“I got kind of curious. Maybe I should pick up some of that”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
ARISTA NETWORKS / DRIVEATS (AI NETWORKING INFRASTRUCTURE, PRIVATE AND PUBLIC)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Disaggregation of AI inference workloads across specialized chips requires reinvented networking infrastructure, and companies like Arya and Driveats are positioned to benefit from this impending supercycle in AI data center networking
“We need to reinvent networking and Arya and Driveats are coming at it in a very different way”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
America is the world's largest oil and gas producer and exporter, natural gas (the primary US electricity input) is down on the year while LNG costs are up 100-200% elsewhere, making US manufacturing and AI compute structurally cost-advantaged versus global…
“NG1 is down this year...input cost for electricity in the rest of the world is up 100-200%”
90d +7.9%
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
SpaceX builds data centers dramatically faster and cheaper than anyone else, has a clear and growing offtake partner in Anthropic, GPUs will be allocated to whoever can turn them on fastest, and orbital compute is a multi-year growth optionality layer on top…
“15 billion from Anthropic is extraordinary”
90d -16.7%
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
2026-05-22
XAI
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Cursor's proprietary coding token dataset combined with access to Colossus compute produced Pareto-dominant Composer 2.5 in just 3-4 weeks of RL, and a new base model trained with cursor data plus full Colossus RL could make XAI/Cursor the dominant coding AI…
“boom, instantly their models are growing faster”
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
2026-05-20
long DRAM / short SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL EQUIPMENT
pair
Gavin Baker · video
DRAM companies at mid-single-digit multiples vs semi-cap equipment at 40x forward earnings is a historically extreme dislocation (prior cycle peak was 5x vs 12x) driven by AI shortage conditions inflating the lowest-quality names; the two valuations cannot…
“semi-cap equipment companies trading at 40 times next quarter's annualized earnings and DRAM companies trading at mid single digit”
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
Unprecedented AI demand (Anthropic adding $11B ARR in a month) drove NVDA to historically cheap valuations relative to the market in early April, creating a high-conviction buying opportunity against a clear AI inflection
“in early April was essentially as cheap as it gets relative to the market like in the last 10 or 12 years”
90d -1.6%
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
Said again: 2026-05-22 (All-In Podcast), 2026-06-11 (Bg2 Pod), 2026-08-04 (Invest Like the Best)
Zuckerberg is the only true internet-era CEO to have genuinely transformed his company into an AI-first organization, paid up for top AI talent, and Llama/Muse models are nearing frontier parity — improving Meta's AI position faster than the market appreciates
“I give him immense credit. What he's done in terms of making Meta an AI first company internally”
90d -10.1%
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
Astera Labs is miscategorized in copper-loser baskets when its primary product is a switch — switches by definition sit at the intersection of copper and optical connections to accelerators and cannot be copper losers
“Astera is a stock I've been close to a long time. There's a lot of bears on that. I love that.”
90d +5.6%
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
GE Vernova's elevated valuation is logically inconsistent with Nvidia's cheap valuation because GEV can only justify its multiple if Nvidia suffers unfathomable share loss — and Baker is firmly bullish on Nvidia
“It's very hard to square that valuation with something like GE Vernova's valuation. Cuz it builds in unfathomable amount of share loss for Nvidia.”
90d +1.9%
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
2026-05-20
CYBERSECURITY
owns
Gavin Baker · video
AI-enabled deepfakes can generate hyper-realistic impersonations with full social-engineering context, requiring a step-change increase in defensive cybersecurity spending at both firm and personal levels
“we're trying to over invest in cyber security”
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
Google holds the largest installed compute base of any hyperscaler — a strategic advantage amplified by AI shortages — plus uniquely valuable YouTube data for robotics training and a fast-growing GCP business
“Google's never not going to be in a good position”
90d -11.4%
Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker
2026-05-15
long CRWV / long NBIS / long CRUSOE (PRIVATE)
basket
Sohn Investment Conference · video
Neo-cloud GPU cluster operators have durable competitive advantages because operating high-utilization GPU clusters is genuinely hard — like Formula 1 vs. overnight trucking — and drives 2-3x higher GPU utilization per hour than lower-quality providers, a…
“I absolutely think it's durable”
90d +7.5%
Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker
Trainium is the most underestimated AI chip alternative because it made aggressive design choices and — alongside Nvidia — possesses one of only two functioning switched scale-up networks required to inference mixture-of-expert frontier models at scale…
“Trainium is for sure the most underestimated”
90d +0.4%
Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker
Said again: 2026-05-20 (Gavin Baker)
Current memory upcycle resembles the mid-1990s true capacity cycle rather than a typical margin-peak sell signal, as structural AI compute shortages make the conventional 'sell at peak margins' playbook wrong for the first time in 25 years
“I've been hanging on to the memory stocks for dear life”
Inside the Mind of a Tech Investor with Gavin Baker
Said again: 2026-08-04 (Invest Like the Best)
Coreweave's deliberate over-investment in networking versus peers drives materially higher compute utilization and revenue per GPU, a moat that compounds as the industry transitions from GPU-hour to token-based pricing
“We invest more in networking than anyone else”
90d -35.5% · 180d -34.9%
Why Aria Is to AI What Arista Was to Cloud | Gavin Baker & Mansour Karam
Tesla has superior AI vs Chinese competitors in humanoid robots because its autopilot already runs superhuman inference at 20–50W at the edge, giving it the efficiency lead that will define the Optimus vs. China contest
“it's Tesla versus the Chinese... Tesla has the better AI”
90d +8.8% · 180d -2.7%
AI, Tesla, Defense & Energy: What Comes Next? | Antonio Gracias & Gavin Baker
2025-12-09
short CRM / short NOW / short HUBS / short GTLB (+1 legs)
basket
Gavin Baker · video
Legacy SaaS incumbents are making the same fatal mistake brick-and-mortar retailers made with e-commerce — refusing to accept AI-native gross margin structures (~35-40%) to protect 80%+ margins — guaranteeing displacement by AI-native agents, with Microsoft…
“this is a life or death decision that essentially everyone except Microsoft is failing it”
90d +32.8% · 180d +33.7%
GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview
Microsoft is the only major SaaS incumbent successfully embracing the AI transition — accepting lower gross margins via GitHub Copilot/cloud AI, using distribution to build a giant coding business — while every other incumbent clings to margin structures they…
“essentially everyone except Microsoft is failing it”
90d -16.6% · 180d -15.9%
GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview
2025-12-09
NATURAL GAS POWER INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Natural gas is the only scalable near-term solution to the AI data center power constraint given nuclear timelines are impossibly long, abundant US fracked gas supplies are available, and turbine manufacturers (e.g. Caterpillar expanding capacity 75%) are…
“the solutions are natural gas and solar”
GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview
Meta failed categorically to build a frontier AI model despite massive spending, its ROIC has already declined hurting the stock, and without a cutting-edge internal model checkpoint it cannot generate the reasoning flywheel that is widening the gap between…
“he was as wrong as it was possible to be”
90d +1.4% · 180d +10.7%
GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview
2025-12-09
PUBLIC NUCLEAR AND QUANTUM STOCKS
bearish
Gavin Baker · video
Nuclear (SMR/fusion) and quantum public equities are in a rolling bubble with no fundamental support — the true leaders in quantum are Google, IBM, and Honeywell's quantum division, not the pure-play public vehicles — making the publicly investable…
“none of the public ways you can invest in this are really good expressions of this theme are likely to succeed or have any real fundamental support”
GPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview
No dark GPUs unlike 2000's dark fiber, ROIC of biggest GPU spenders rose ~10 points since capex ramp, valuation at ~40x trailing vs Cisco's 150-180x in 2000, and Jensen Huang is executing a rational long-term strategy extending Nvidia from silicon to systems…
“Jensen's one of the two best CEOs along with Elon I have ever known. He's playing a strong hand really well.”
90d -5.6% · 180d +5.1% · 1y +1.1%
"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Said again: 2025-12-09 (Gavin Baker)
Google is arguably the leading AI company today with a proprietary TPU that is the only credible training alternative to Nvidia, Chrome's 5B-user distribution moat, and Gemini capturing 15-20 points of traffic share in 2-3 months — making it the hardest…
“I think it's tough to bet against the companies with large existing user bases today.”
90d +19.5% · 180d +24.4% · 1y -0.3%
"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Humanoid robotics is very real and will mirror the Tesla-vs-China dynamic in EVs, with Optimus impressing roboticists and the humanoid form factor winning because it can learn from YouTube and human demonstration
“It's going to be Tesla versus the Chinese in the same way it's Tesla versus the Chinese in cars.”
90d -2.0% · 180d -14.6% · 1y -9.2%
"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
2025-10-30
TPU
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Most corporate ASIC programs (outside Google's TPU) will fail over the next 3 years because Google can offer TPUs externally at scale, making it uneconomic to build a competing chip that took Google itself three generations to get right
“I personally believe most of those ASICs are going to fail... you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs cancelled.”
"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
2025-10-22
SPACEX
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
SpaceX is the highest Sharpe-ratio asset available because Starlink addresses a trillion-dollar telecom market with a unique product, it is pro-entropic (gains value as world disorder increases), and it is by far the most important defense asset to the…
“SpaceX is probably the highest risk adjusted return available in the markets”
#1 Semiconductor Expert Gavin Baker: "China's Not Getting Taiwan's Fabs." | Invested
Venture semi deals typically back proven 50-year-old executives with decade-long divisional track records at major chip companies rather than unproven founders, offering better risk-adjusted returns than typical software or consumer venture
“you're investing in a 50 year old who ran a division at a big company…betting on this person just doing what they've done for the last 10 years”
90d +15.7% · 180d +37.4% · 1y +55.0%
#1 Semiconductor Expert Gavin Baker: "China's Not Getting Taiwan's Fabs." | Invested
2025-10-22
CEREBRAS (PRIVATE)
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Cerebras's wafer-scale SRAM architecture delivers roughly 10x faster token throughput than GPUs, carving out a high-speed inference niche that matters directly to users of reasoning models where chain-of-thought latency is visible, and the company is now…
“an answer that might take 30 seconds takes 3 seconds on Cerebras”
#1 Semiconductor Expert Gavin Baker: "China's Not Getting Taiwan's Fabs." | Invested
2025-10-22
FRONTIER AI LABS (OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, XAI, GOOGLE DEEPMIND)
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Reasoning models introduced a true user-flywheel (more users → more data → better product) that did not exist in LLMs before late 2024, making large-user-base foundation model companies dramatically better businesses and setting up a durable oligopoly that is…
“these scaled foundation model companies are much better investments post-reasoning”
#1 Semiconductor Expert Gavin Baker: "China's Not Getting Taiwan's Fabs." | Invested
2025-10-22
ISRAELI CYBER (VENTURE)
bullish
Gavin Baker · video
Israeli cyber venture shares the same favorable operator dynamics as venture semis — experienced practitioners with proven track records — making risk-adjusted returns better than typical software venture, a segment Gavin acknowledges he is underweight…
“Israeli cyber in particular is maybe a little bit the same”
#1 Semiconductor Expert Gavin Baker: "China's Not Getting Taiwan's Fabs." | Invested
2025-08-09
XAI
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
XAI possesses the largest Blackwell GPU cluster and Grok 4 showed exceptional benchmark progress while GPT-5 failed for the first time to decisively beat a rival, positioning Grok 5 for frontier leadership
“they have the largest Blackwell cluster. So, I'm optimistic for Gro 5”
OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
AI is materially driving Meta's revenue acceleration by improving ad targeting ROI for advertisers and increasing time-on-platform, as evidenced by a significantly ahead quarter that Baker attributes largely to AI
“Meta just reported a quarter with revenue significantly ahead. And I think a lot of that was due to AI”
90d -18.8% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -22.1%
OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
2025-03-29
GPU
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Market misprices CoreWeave as a commodity business but operating large GPU training clusters at scale is operationally complex and differentiated—analogous to early AWS skepticism that proved wrong
“Wall Street consensus has been wrong before”
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
2025-01-04
long SK / long MU
basket
All-In Podcast · video
High bandwidth memory is a critical, multi-year sold-out bottleneck in AI infrastructure whose importance accelerates as inference and test-time compute replace pre-training as the dominant scaling axis
“high bandwidth memory would be my pick”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Reasoning models and test-time compute are adding a third multiplicative scaling axis to AI, triggering a new GPU/accelerator supply crunch identical to 2023 and making inference infrastructure the derivative play on the reasoning-model buildout
“inference compute is going to be the derivative winner...we're going to run out of GPUs accelerators compute in 2025 the same way we did in 23”
90d -36.9% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +25.9%
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Said again: 2025-03-29 (All-In Podcast)
2025-01-04
GOVERNMENT SERVICE PROVIDERS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Any company with US government revenue exceeding 35% faces severe budget scrutiny under DOGE as Cost Plus time-and-materials contracts get exposed as the human-labor-arbitrage models they are
“you do not want to have the United States government at any level is over 35% of your Revenue”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2025-01-04
ENTERPRISE APPLICATION SOFTWARE
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
AI agents will replace white-collar workers outright rather than make them more efficient; enterprise software vendors lack their own models and compute, putting them at permanent cost disadvantage against cloud providers and AI-native entrants in the agentic…
“Enterprise application software I think is going to be in a lot of pain”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Nuclear is the most environmentally friendly at-scale energy source available now and the US must expand capacity to compete with China's dozens of Gen-4 reactors being built, making it the critical near-term answer to AI-era energy demand
“more nuclear more better... it is arguably just as environmentally friendly done right and carefully and it is here now”
90d -3.0% · 180d -8.4% · 1y +3.3%
New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Cryptocurrencies fundamentally reduce state power over monetary supply and Bitcoin will become a serious long-term threat to US dollar reserve status as US debt remains unchecked
“I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar”
90d -13.2% · 180d +1.7% · 1y -9.5%
New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
2024-08-07
long MU / long SK / short KS
basket
Gavin Baker · video
HBM (high-bandwidth memory) is the primary bottleneck for AI — not compute — and if Apple and Google triple on-device memory for AI phones simultaneously with data center demand, Micron and SK Hynix (Samsung having lost its way) could see the first true…
“in 1996 Micron was a 50 bagger and you the prices of DRAM... if it is the rate limiting thing for selling iPhones and AI”
Liquidity Summit Talks: Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker | E1990
Nvidia is the dominant winner in AI compute infrastructure as the primary chip for training large language models, and Jensen Huang's ability to see around technical corners sustains the competitive lead.
“Nvidia obviously is crushing it”
90d +41.5% · 180d +18.0% · 1y +82.8%
Liquidity Summit Talks: Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker | E1990
Meta placing a search box at the top of every app across 3-4 billion phones is a decisive strategic move that directly threatens Google's search monopoly and reflects a company in a 'much better position' on AI than a year ago.
“putting a search box on the top of every app is Gangster”
90d +17.2% · 180d +42.9% · 1y +56.4%
Liquidity Summit Talks: Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker | E1990
Google has 'woken up' under Demis Hassabis as a wartime AI general, leveraging unique TPU infrastructure to enable context caching that no other LLM can match — a durable competitive moat that the market hasn't fully appreciated yet.
“Gemini was the first time that open AI was ever passed and it does have a really important advantage”
90d +6.9% · 180d +26.9% · 1y +24.2%
Liquidity Summit Talks: Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker | E1990
Apple is 'about to wake up' on AI with a differentiated privacy-first on-device LLM strategy that monetizes its existing iOS tollbooth and will drive the first meaningful iPhone upgrade cycle in years as AI requires more on-device memory.
“Apple's strategy is generally not to be the first but almost to be the last and the best”
90d +6.6% · 180d +8.9% · 1y +5.4%
Liquidity Summit Talks: Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker | E1990
2024-07-01
short CRM / short NOW / short TEAM
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Gavin Baker · video
AI applications replace the human workers who hold SaaS licenses—customer-service AI does not buy Salesforce or Zendesk—so application software faces existential displacement rather than incremental disruption, potentially as sudden as the BlackBerry after…
“most application software may just go away”
90d -3.2% · 180d -35.2% · 1y -17.2%
Thematic Investors: Gavin Baker Blending Sci-fi, History and Literature for Tech Investing Success
2024-07-01
long GOOGL / long META / long MSFT
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Gavin Baker · video
Winning in foundation AI requires unique proprietary data, effectively unlimited compute capital, and internet-scale distribution to socialize models through RLHF; only Google, Meta, and Microsoft among public companies possess all three, while all other…
“no one else has access to Unique data infinite amounts of compute and internet scale distribution”
90d -0.4% · 180d +5.2% · 1y +16.0%
Thematic Investors: Gavin Baker Blending Sci-fi, History and Literature for Tech Investing Success
Showing the 60 most recent of 68 tracked stances.
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