Investors / stance tracking
What Bill Nygren is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowPortfolio manager, Oakmark Funds
95 dated public stances tracked since 2017-12-14, most recently 2026-07-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Bill Nygren's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Bill Nygren is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
95
tracked stances
50
themes
3
side flips
2026-07-30
last heard
Returns 90d +8.0% 70% correct · 79 calls · 180d +8.6% 63% correct · 67 calls · 1y +15.4% 65% correct · 52 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | NFLX | bullish | -15.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | KDP | bullish | +11.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | GOOGL | bullish | -2.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | ENERGY | bullish | +16.8% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | BKNG | bullish | -23.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | AMZN | bullish | +8.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | ADBE | bullish | +0.8% | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | ABNB | bullish | +9.2% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | CRM | owns | +36.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | CRBG | owns | +7.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | BANKS | bullish | -11.8% | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | ACN | bullish | +49.5% | — | — |
| 2026-03-23 | NFLX | bullish | -22.0% | -21.4% | — |
| 2026-03-23 | GOOGL | bullish | +15.8% | +17.7% | — |
| 2026-03-23 | BANKS | owns | +13.4% | +14.2% | — |
| 2026-03-23 | ABNB | bullish | +5.0% | +25.8% | — |
| 2025-12-24 | CRM | bullish | -31.0% | -43.1% | — |
| 2025-12-13 | CASH | owns | +0.9% | +1.7% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | SPX | bearish | -2.1% | -6.6% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | NVDA | bearish | +7.6% | -1.7% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | GOOGL | bullish | +19.6% | +35.0% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | FCNCA | owns | +13.6% | +8.7% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | COF | bullish | +1.3% | -13.6% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | CMCSA | bullish | +15.1% | +5.9% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | CHTR | bullish | -5.5% | -26.6% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | C | bullish | +16.4% | +24.8% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | BANKS | bullish | +14.9% | +12.1% | — |
| 2025-09-16 | MRK | bullish | +24.7% | +44.6% | +83.9% |
| 2025-09-16 | DAL | bullish | +23.6% | +5.8% | +36.1% |
| 2025-09-16 | CRBG | bullish | +2.6% | -24.0% | +14.9% |
| 2025-09-11 | SPX | bullish | +4.8% | +3.6% | +17.5% |
| 2025-04-03 | DAL | bullish | +29.9% | +47.5% | +74.6% |
| 2025-04-03 | CHTR | bullish | +11.9% | -25.3% | -40.3% |
| 2025-04-03 | C | bullish | +38.7% | +63.3% | +91.0% |
| 2024-09-23 | SPX | bearish | -4.7% | -1.4% | -17.8% |
| 2023-10-24 | GOOGL | owns | +5.2% | +12.6% | +17.6% |
| 2023-10-24 | GM | bullish | +24.0% | +52.2% | +87.4% |
| 2023-10-24 | FCNCA | bullish | +9.9% | +24.4% | +59.9% |
| 2023-10-24 | AIG | owns | +16.3% | +26.5% | +32.1% |
| 2023-08-16 | SPX | bullish | +2.4% | +14.8% | +27.6% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 79 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BANKS | 9 | 9 bullish | 2026-07-16 | |
| GOOGL | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-07-30 | |
| NFLX | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-07-30 | |
| COF | 4 | 4 bullish | 2025-11-05 | |
| SPX | 4 | 2 bullish / 2 bearish | 2025-11-05 | |
| ALLY | 3 | 3 bullish | 2022-05-19 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Netflix at ~15x forward earnings vs the S&P at 22-23x is mis-categorized — growth investors avoid slowing growth and value investors still perceive it as high-PE, creating a mispricing in 'purgatory' that Oakmark calls good hunting ground since Netflix…
“that's often very good hunting ground for us at Harris Oakmark”
90d -15.3%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Airbnb is a powerful two-sided marketplace intermediary primarily serving the US where dispersed supply and demand create durable network-effect moats, and the headline PE overstates true cost because GAAP distorts the economics similarly to Booking
“Airbnb is a name we think is a lot cheaper than its headline PE ratio suggests”
90d +9.2%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Subtracting losses in Other Bets and adding asset value back to earnings implies the market is pricing Alphabet's dominant, fast-growing search business below a market multiple, with Waymo as a near-free option on autonomous driving
“the market was asking us to pay less than a market multiple for a search business that we thought was going to grow faster than the market”
90d -2.6%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Oil companies trade at single-digit PEs at $75/bbl and are among the areas of the market left behind by the AI-driven concentration in the S&P 500, similar to the setup of traditional businesses during the dot-com era
90d +16.8%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Booking Holdings earns a low-to-mid-teens multiple on true core vacation-rental earnings, but growth investments in adjacent experiences are expensed through the income statement under GAAP, artificially depressing reported earnings and masking the quality of…
90d -23.3%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Keurig Dr Pepper is predominantly a cold-beverage company (not a coffee play as commonly perceived) that consistently gains market share through innovative niche marketing while trading at a significant PE discount to larger beverage peers
90d +11.5%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Amazon is owned primarily for AWS, which Nygren views as a structurally profitable oligopoly cloud business that will remain highly profitable long-term
90d +8.1%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Adobe at ~9x earnings provides a wide margin of safety versus AI disruption risk; its commercial business remains embedded in major marketing and ad organizations, and its AI integration could make it more rather than less valuable to creative professionals
“at nine times earnings, you can take a lot more risk than you can at 14 or 15 times”
90d +0.8%
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
2026-07-30
FINANCIAL STOCKS (LARGE-CAP)
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
Large financial firms trade at single-digit PEs and represent the kind of diversified, overlooked value that historically outperformed during corrections in growth-driven markets
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
2026-07-30
HEALTHCARE EQUITIES (LARGE-CAP)
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
Healthcare names at low-teens PEs are among the undervalued, AI-unaffected sectors available at half the S&P multiple, forming part of a diversified portfolio that can withstand a growth-index correction
Value Investing Live with Bill Nygren
Most large banks and insurers trade at single-digit or very low-teens P/E while returning substantial capital to shareholders, offering value that is largely absent from investor portfolios today
“most of the banks and insurance companies are either single digit P/E or very low teens returning a lot of capital”
90d -11.8%
It's quite easy today to find a diversified portfolio trading at low-teens multiples: Bill Nygren
Corebridge Financial is an overlooked, deeply undervalued holding that clients ignore because they are fixated on AI names, analogous to ignored value names during the dot-com bubble
“we own a company called Corbridge and I always want to talk to people about it”
90d +7.4%
It's quite easy today to find a diversified portfolio trading at low-teens multiples: Bill Nygren
Salesforce has been sold off on fears that AI will displace SaaS, compressing its multiple to levels where risk/reward is attractive even if AI disruption is real
“we own some of those companies, we own a company like Accenture or Salesforce”
90d +36.9%
It's quite easy today to find a diversified portfolio trading at low-teens multiples: Bill Nygren
Said again: 2026-07-30 (Bill Nygren)
Accenture trades at a single-digit P/E on forward earnings after AI-disruption fears hammered the stock, meaning not much has to go right to generate strong returns
“not as much has to go right for them when a company like Accenture is trading at a single digit P/E”
90d +49.5%
It's quite easy today to find a diversified portfolio trading at low-teens multiples: Bill Nygren
Netflix subscribers were being valued at a steep discount to HBO subscribers despite comparable or superior consumer preference, and GAP accounting obscured true earnings power by expensing subscriber acquisition costs
“fully restored what the market had taken away in terms of position waiting”
90d -22.0% · 180d -21.4%
He Beat the Market over 25 Years: Bill Nygren Interview
Banks trade at depressed multiples due to GFC hangover despite having twice the capital, tighter lending standards, and economies of scale advantages; investors overestimate recession severity based on GFC/COVID rather than normal cycles
“we own so many banks relative to what these companies looked like pre-GFC”
90d +13.4% · 180d +14.2%
He Beat the Market over 25 Years: Bill Nygren Interview
Adding back investment spending in unprofitable new segments (experiences) makes Airbnb cheaper than Booking on adjusted earnings, and its take rate has room to expand toward Booking's level given comparable value delivery to small buyers and sellers
“Airbnb comes out looking a little bit cheaper”
90d +5.0% · 180d +25.8%
He Beat the Market over 25 Years: Bill Nygren Interview
Alphabet's stock price has tracked underlying earnings growth without meaningful PE expansion, making it attractively valued unlike peers that have re-rated to premium multiples
“their stock price has pretty much just followed the growth of the underlying business”
90d +15.8% · 180d +17.7%
He Beat the Market over 25 Years: Bill Nygren Interview
2026-03-23
SOFTWARE / SAAS SECTOR
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
Broadly across the software industry, stocks are available at the lowest multiples of recurring cash flow ever, despite deserving premium terminal multiples given capital-light models, high ROIC, and strong recurring revenue
“lowest multiples of recurring cash flow that they've ever sold at”
He Beat the Market over 25 Years: Bill Nygren Interview
Salesforce has lagged enough to trade at value levels, and at 8-10x sales it is cheaper than comparable software acquisitions despite being more dominant than those acquired companies
“Salesforce is much more dominant than the companies they're getting acquired at 8 to 10 times”
90d -31.0% · 180d -43.1%
Oakmark’s Bill Nygren on Salesforce: It has lagged enough for value investors like us to take a look
Said again: 2026-03-23 (Bill Nygren)
2025-12-24
MOMENTUM STOCKS / RECENT MARKET LEADERS
bearish
Bill Nygren · video
Momentum as a factor has been unusually strong for two years resembling 1998-99 dotcom conditions, which historically does not persist beyond a couple of years
“momentum's been almost as strong as it was back in '98 and '99 in the dotcom led market”
Oakmark’s Bill Nygren on Salesforce: It has lagged enough for value investors like us to take a look
Low P/E value stocks generating high free cash flow yields that return capital via dividends and buybacks offer a significant risk reduction compared to high-growth names whose entire value depends on a decade-out terminal value.
“free cash flow yields are high and most companies we own are giving a lot of that capital back to shareholders”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.7%
We’re seeing a ‘reaccelerating of growth’ with bigger companies, CIO says
Charter is statistically cheap even on GAAP metrics, with broadband infrastructure acting as a near-monopoly utility asset, and the fixed wireless threat is unlikely to scale economically within the investment horizon
90d -5.5% · 180d -26.6%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
Major banks are better-capitalized, more focused on per-share returns, and trading at barely double-digit PEs vs. the S&P's 24x, making them significantly undervalued relative to their improved business quality
“a lot of banks that are much better businesses than they were 15 years ago that are selling at barely double-digit PEs”
90d +14.9% · 180d +12.1%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
Said again: 2025-12-24 (Bill Nygren)
Comcast's broadband infrastructure is a durable asset trading at a very low multiple, with fixed wireless competition unlikely to scale economically given AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile's incentive constraints, and near-term cash flows justify much of the current…
“you're getting something like 20% of your value back each year”
90d +15.1% · 180d +5.9%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
The S&P 500 has morphed from a broadly diversified index into a concentrated mega-cap technology growth fund (top names ~35%+ of index), making passive ownership far riskier than investors perceive, especially relative to actual retirement/savings needs
“It's actually become the most unsafe index out there.”
90d -2.1% · 180d -6.6%
Title: Bill Nygren: The Hidden Risk Lurking in the S&P 500
Said again: 2025-11-05 (Bill Nygren), 2025-12-13 (Bill Nygren)
Applying Cisco-era framework to Nvidia—reasonable assumptions on market growth, market share, and price-per-unit-of-compute decline—makes it very difficult to justify the current price or 20% annual returns, suggesting the stock is more likely to disappoint…
“it started to be very difficult to justify the current price, much less the idea that you'd earn 20% a year”
90d +7.6% · 180d -1.7%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
Capital One is a leader in AI adoption within financial services, trading at roughly 12x earnings, so even if the AI advantage proves modest the stock is cheap for a credit card industry leader
“if we're wrong, what are you paying like 12 times earnings for a leader in the credit card business?”
90d +1.3% · 180d -13.6%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
2025-11-05
FCNCA
owns
Bill Nygren · video
First Citizens' management has a demonstrated core competency in acquiring troubled FDIC banks at attractive prices, creating per-share book value growth not visible in standard models, as evidenced by the SVB acquisition
“two years into our owning the stock, they come close to doubling per share value by an attractive acquisition of SVB”
90d +13.6% · 180d +8.7%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
Alphabet is a traditional business with deep competitive moats that can compound value by deploying AI better than competitors, and management's stated priorities align with long-term shareholder value
90d +19.6% · 180d +35.0%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
Citigroup trades cheaply relative to intrinsic value, has twice the capital ratio vs. pre-GFC, and management is focused on per-share value creation rather than just loan growth
90d +16.4% · 180d +24.8%
Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond The Balance Sheet
2025-11-05
RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
The Russell Value index now contains 870 of the 1000 largest companies including growth names like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Coinbase, making it look like the diversified, reasonably-valued S&P 500 of 10 years ago and a better fit for investor needs than…
“The Russell value today looks a lot like the S&P 500 did 10 years ago in diversification, in growth characteristics.”
Title: Bill Nygren: The Hidden Risk Lurking in the S&P 500
Said again: 2025-12-13 (Bill Nygren)
Corebridge Financial trades at ~6x earnings and is aggressively repurchasing shares, such that at current pace the entire market cap could be retired in 5-7 years, making EPS growth compelling even with slow top-line growth
“in five to seven years, if the stock doesn't move, they would be taking out the entire market cap of the company”
90d +2.6% · 180d -24.0% · 1y +14.9%
Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren: Here's where to look beyond the Mag 7
Delta trades at a single-digit P/E while benefiting from strong travel demand, a stronger balance sheet than peers, and discount airline struggles that are allowing major carriers to restore pricing power and margins
“at a single digit PE, it's not asking that much of the company”
90d +23.6% · 180d +5.8% · 1y +36.1%
Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren: Here's where to look beyond the Mag 7
Merck's runoff value from existing assets (Keytruda, vaccines, animal health) already exceeds the current stock price, meaning investors get the entire R&D pipeline and Keytruda combination-therapy optionality for free despite patent-cliff fears
“the runoff value is more than the stock is selling for today and you get the whole R&D effort for free”
90d +24.7% · 180d +44.6% · 1y +83.9%
Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren: Here's where to look beyond the Mag 7
Said again: 2025-11-05 (Bill Nygren)
Roughly 150 S&P 500 stocks still trade under 14x earnings today — the same count as 7 years ago — meaning the cheap segment of the market is no more expensive than it was, offering attractive value despite headline index multiples appearing stretched.
“there are about 150 stocks under 14 times earnings. Today they're about 150 stocks under 14 times earnings”
90d +4.8% · 180d +3.6% · 1y +17.5%
The S&P isn't the broad-based index it used to be, says Oakmark Fund's Bill Nygren
Charter Communications is mispriced because the market still views it as a declining video company rather than an internet provider, creating a single-digit multiple (~8x forward earnings) on a durable connectivity business.
“Charter communications people still think of it as a video company. It's an internet provider about eight times expected next year's earnings.”
90d +11.9% · 180d -25.3% · 1y -40.3%
Tariffs are inflationary, anti-growth and amount to a tax increase: Oakmark Fund's Bill Nygren
Citigroup's ongoing transformation is unrecognized, with shares at 70% of book value and 7x forward earnings, while typical (non-GFC/COVID) recessions have not historically impaired bank earnings or triggered elevated credit costs.
“Citigroup that's going through a big transformation, 70% of book value seven times expected next year's earnings.”
90d +38.7% · 180d +63.3% · 1y +91.0%
Tariffs are inflationary, anti-growth and amount to a tax increase: Oakmark Fund's Bill Nygren
Delta Airlines trades at a P/E under 7x next year's consensus earnings of over $6, already pricing in deeply negative expectations that are unlikely to persist over a longer holding period.
“Delta Airlines trading just above 40 consensus numbers or over $6 for next year. So you're talking about a PE under seven.”
90d +29.9% · 180d +47.5% · 1y +74.6%
Tariffs are inflationary, anti-growth and amount to a tax increase: Oakmark Fund's Bill Nygren
The S&P 500 is far less diversified than investors assume, with ~4-5 mega-cap tech names individually larger than Oakmark's biggest position and the top 25 names comprising roughly half the index, making it a concentrated tech bet rather than a low-risk…
“it's not nearly as diversified as investors think it is”
90d -4.7% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -17.8%
Investors will revisit idea that the S&P 500 is a low-risk way to invest, says Oakmark's Bill Nygren
2024-09-23
VALUE STOCKS / OUT-OF-FAVOR COMPANIES WITH SHARE BUYBACKS
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
With too few value investors left to force convergence to fair value, cash-generative businesses that repurchase their own stock can compound per-share value independently of sentiment, creating a structural opportunity for disciplined value investors.
“there aren't enough value investors to force convergence to fair value anymore”
Investors will revisit idea that the S&P 500 is a low-risk way to invest, says Oakmark's Bill Nygren
2023-10-24
FCNCA
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
First Citizens trades at 8x earnings and tangible book value despite rapid growth in book value, earnings, and sales, meaning the market is mispricing a fast-growing bank as a value stock
“it sells at eight times earnings and tangible book value yes it's a growing business but we definitely consider that to be a value stock”
90d +9.9% · 180d +24.4% · 1y +59.9%
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
Alphabet is Oakmark's largest holding and after adjusting GAAP financials for intangible investments, the core search business is available at a discount to the market despite being an above-average business
“our largest holding alphabet where the headline multiple looks like it's at a premium to the market but after a few adjustments the basic search business is actually available at a discount”
90d +5.2% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +17.6%
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
AIG sells at a large discount to book value with a low PE multiple despite rapidly closing the performance gap with peer insurers, offering a compelling re-rating opportunity as GFC-era stigma fades
“a name like AIG that's been in our portfolio for a long time again has the great financial crisis taint to it that sells at a big discount to book value”
90d +16.3% · 180d +26.5% · 1y +32.1%
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
GM and auto-related companies trade at mid-single-digit PEs while generating excess capital returned to shareholders, and EV disruption fears are overstated since OEMs like GM are among the leaders in the ICE-to-EV transition and parts companies benefit…
“a lot of the OEM companies like a General Motors are among the leaders in transitioning their fleet from ICE to EV”
90d +24.0% · 180d +52.2% · 1y +87.4%
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
2023-10-24
E
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
US E&P companies trade at single-digit PEs while returning capital to shareholders via buybacks and above-average dividends, and ESG-driven underownership is likely to reverse as investors recognize US producers are significantly more carbon-efficient than…
“most of the US EMP companies trade at single digit PEs based on current price for oil”
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
2023-10-24
LEGACY MEDIA / CABLE INTERNET PROVIDERS
bullish
Bill Nygren · video
Cable/internet companies like Charter trade at single-digit PEs but should command infrastructure-type multiples above the S&P given that internet access is an essential utility for work-from-home and streaming, making current valuations a significant mismatch
“what used to be cable industry is now making almost all their money from providing internet access”
Growth In Deep Value Investing w/ Bill Nygren & Robert Bierig (MI301)
Post-GFC banks have nearly doubled capital ratios, improved lending standards, and gained competitive advantages via scale in tech/regulation, yet remain shunned by value investors who learned the wrong lesson from 2008, creating persistent undervaluation
“the big banks have become much stronger, much more competitively advantaged, much lower risk”
90d +1.8% · 180d +16.0% · 1y +33.8%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
Said again: 2023-10-24 (Bill Nygren)
EOG is a low-cost oil producer with deep long-term inventory, conservative balance sheet, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation that can earn double-digit EPS at $70-80/bbl oil, yet trades below 60% of intrinsic value partly due to ESG-driven…
“EOG is likely to be able to earn double-digit dollars of EPS in typical environments”
90d -2.1% · 180d -9.9% · 1y +3.7%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
The valuation spread between the cheapest and most expensive S&P 500 deciles is ~60% wider than the 30-year average, creating historically attractive relative returns for low-PE stocks as recession fears that have suppressed cyclical/financial names…
“the spread between low PE and high PE is about 60 percent bigger than it has been on average over the past 30 years”
90d +2.4% · 180d +14.8% · 1y +27.6%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
Said again: 2023-10-24 (Bill Nygren)
Schwab is fundamentally a competitively advantaged, lowest-cost wealth management platform that continues to take market share; the bank's modest duration mismatch only trims near-term earnings slightly and does not impair franchise value
“a great business that maybe will only earn 90 percent as much as they could have for the next couple years”
90d -8.9% · 180d +7.6% · 1y +9.6%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
Capital One's transactional deposit base is immune to deposit flight, its short-duration credit card and auto loan assets mark above book at current rates, and share repurchases alone can grow EPS upper-single digits without any revenue growth
“without any growth at all in their revenue they should be able to grow earnings per share upper single digits just from share repurchase”
90d +2.6% · 180d +32.4% · 1y +33.2%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
CBRE's growing recurring services revenue (e.g., janitorial, facilities management) is making the business less cyclical than its historical transaction-dependent model, but backward-looking statistical analysis still prices it as a highly cyclical stock
“the services part of their business...those aren't cyclical really at all and those are becoming the more dominant part”
90d -5.4% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +34.2%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
KKR retains and reinvests earnings in its own funds creating a large investment-holdings division whose asset value is ignored by the market, which prices KKR at a similar PE to peers that pay out all income and lack that asset base
“hidden in plain sight was this incremental value at KKR of the large investment Holdings”
90d +12.7% · 180d +65.5% · 1y +104.8%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
Iger's return refocuses Disney spending on proven mega-hit content strategy that drove prior-tenure outperformance, reversing the scattered investment approach of the interim period and maximizing long-term content value
“what Iger is doing now is getting back to what he did so very successfully in his prior tenure”
90d +5.5% · 180d +27.0% · 1y +3.6%
Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today
Netflix is a great business but the stock has rallied from under $200 to the low $300s, making it less attractive on a value basis relative to beaten-down banks
“when that stock was trading under 200 we thought it was really at a bargain level”
90d +47.0% · 180d +11.7% · 1y +89.0%
We really like Netflix but it is overvalued: Oakmark's Bill Nygren
Bank of America's large-bank scale advantages and seasoned deposit base make the SVB-driven sell-off an overreaction and create a buying opportunity
“we look at companies like Wells Bank America Capital One Schwab that all of which we own at oakmark”
90d +5.5% · 180d -1.3% · 1y +18.1%
We really like Netflix but it is overvalued: Oakmark's Bill Nygren
Schwab is the lowest-cost wealth management provider with seasoned, sticky deposits (~$10k average per account), insider buying, and trades at a teens multiple despite being a market share gainer with a durable cost advantage
“insiders have been active buyers of the stock in the past few weeks and it's not expensive”
90d +19.5% · 180d -2.4% · 1y +33.6%
We really like Netflix but it is overvalued: Oakmark's Bill Nygren
Capital One benefits from large-bank efficiency advantages and seasoned deposits, making it mispriced after the broad financial sector selloff triggered by SVB concerns
“we look at companies like Wells Bank America Capital One Schwab that all of which we own at oakmark”
90d +17.7% · 180d -1.0% · 1y +45.9%
We really like Netflix but it is overvalued: Oakmark's Bill Nygren
Large banks like Wells Fargo have seasoned, sticky deposits that justify holding longer-term assets, and their sell-off in the wake of SVB was an overreaction given structural differences from troubled regional banks
“we think that was an overreaction to concerns about SVB and the big banks”
90d +8.8% · 180d +0.2% · 1y +43.5%
We really like Netflix but it is overvalued: Oakmark's Bill Nygren
Showing the 60 most recent of 95 tracked stances.
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