Investors / stance tracking
What Dan Nathan is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowTrader & co-host, RiskReversal Media
24 dated public stances tracked since 2019-09-19, most recently 2026-11-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dan Nathan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dan Nathan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
24
tracked stances
22
themes
0
side flips
2026-11-02
last heard
Returns 90d +10.8% 80% correct · 5 calls · 180d +13.2% 100% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | PG | bullish | +3.1% | +9.8% | — |
| 2026-01-06 | HD | bullish | -5.9% | +1.8% | — |
| 2026-01-05 | COST | bullish | +16.5% | +8.8% | — |
| 2025-12-09 | ENERGY | bullish | +24.3% | +29.6% | — |
| 2022-03-25 | SPX | bearish | +16.1% | +15.9% | +10.9% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-21 | |
| COST | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-01-05 | |
| CRWV | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-19 | |
| DRAM | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-09-24 | |
| ENERGY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-12-09 | |
| GRUB | 1 | 1 bearish | 2019-09-19 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Consumer staples should be sold if semis are in a downtrend, as the rotation dynamic makes defensive yield-proxies vulnerable in a rate-led risk-off move
“I think you sell the XLP”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 17:58 ET (5 min)
Amazon's Trainium chips going on sale to outside customers in late 2027 signals intensifying competition for NVIDIA's AI accelerator dominance, compounding existing concerns about channel stuffing and a fever breaking in the semiconductor cycle
“it all points to a lot of competition for NVIDIA”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-29 17:13 ET (5 min)
Intel has been unable to execute on fab manufacturing for two decades and investors over-rewarded speculative ambitions on foundry goals, leaving the stock a bad risk as PC weakness and structural shortcomings reassert themselves
“they're not good at it...it just seemed a little goofy here...it's a bit of a bad idea”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-29 16:58 ET (5 min)
Microsoft could decline because investor and analyst sentiment is excessively bullish while Copilot adoption may disappoint elevated expectations.
“I would not be surprised if we don't see a disappointment on those co-pilot numbers.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 17:11 ET (5 min)
October sales are already tracking below expectations per TD Cowan ahead of earnings and the company is on the other side of growth after 8-9 strong quarters, though proximity to June 2022 valuation lows creates a floor that limits outright short conviction
“it feels as though this quarter is setting up for another disappointment”
Fast Money — 2026-10-21 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
Expectations are deeply depressed after five consecutive post-earnings declines and a 60% drawdown from highs, while recent C-suite changes and low sentiment create conditions for an upside surprise
“I think you want to be long Netflix into this number”
Compute Demand Isn’t Unlimited (And Credit Markets Know It)
Alternative asset managers are at technical support levels and offer exposure to AI infrastructure funding flows without the balance-sheet and credit-structure risk that is destabilizing neocloud names like CoreWeave
“I like a KKR, whatever — to me that's over here”
Compute Demand Isn’t Unlimited (And Credit Markets Know It)
2026-10-20
SPACEX
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
SpaceX's compute-capacity targets appear unrealistic because each gigawatt requires enormous funding and the necessary power supply is unclear.
“Where are they gonna get the power and where are they gonna get half a trillion dollars to build out?”
Fast Money — 2026-10-20 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
The $60 level has been technical support multiple times over the past year and 3x normal volume on a roughly unchanged close suggests a capitulation-style wash that makes the level tactically defensible, though a sustained recovery requires management to stop…
“This is the best level we've seen in a while. The fact that it traded three times normal volume, I think is somewhat encouraging”
Fast Money — 2026-10-19 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
McDonald's is a final-trade buy with the stock expected to start moving more constructively from current levels
“McDonald's. Yeah, it's got to start acting a bit more”
Fast Money — 2026-10-19 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
2026-10-14
long DEFENSE / long DEFENSE / long DEFENSE
basket
RiskReversal Media · video
Raytheon, Lockheed, and Northrop offer multi-year restocking demand as geopolitical conflicts (Houthis, Russia-Ukraine) are depleting US and allied ammunition stockpiles with no near-term resolution, making replenishment a years-long cycle
“our ammunition is running low... I don't think it's something like refreshing the stockpile for a month or two”
Hot Inflation Sends Stocks Lower
Elevated gasoline prices force consumer trade-down to value retail, directly benefiting Walmart; defensive quality name with strong buybacks and dividends available near attractive valuation
“Where will people buy their things? Walmart benefits from this”
Hot Inflation Sends Stocks Lower
2026-09-24
long DRAM / short DRAM / long DRAM
spread
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
Bearish on DRAM ETF via put butterfly isolating a reversion to levels from 8 trading days prior, with memory prices near a peak per Raspberry Pi commentary and island reversal confirming the top
“I did the 60 55 50... I paid about a dollar for that. So my break even's at 59”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
UK chipmaker Raspberry Pi flagged memory prices nearing a peak and the Round Hill Memory ETF shows a clear island reversal topping pattern, suggesting a 10%+ pullback over the next two weeks
“the idea that it could be down 10% guy in a week doesn't sound that unlikely”
Strange Things Are Happening In Markets
Margin compression from mounting AI infrastructure spend (gross margins declining from 82% toward 78% by 2028) plus Muse product adoption costs and AI commoditization mean the multiple cannot expand to match sales growth, with the chart showing a persistent…
“that thing looks like it's going back to 500 to me”
The Consumer Contradiction: McDonald's Crashes, Retail Sales Rise
Said again: 2026-10-21 (CNBC (uncut))
Near-term implied volatility is too cheap given the macro uncertainty around the Fed meeting, making outright options purchases (SPY at-the-money calls or puts) an attractive risk-defined way to play the event
“I do think VA is cheap in this environment 100%”
One Day Before the Fed: Financials Rolling Over, Energy Won't Quit
The SaaS-pocalypse narrative was overdone and the Salesforce-led breakout in IGV is being sustained by rotation out of AI infrastructure names into software, making dips toward 110 a buy
“that's probably a buy...death of software was vastly overstated”
AI Will Kill Us All... It's Also A Great Excuse To Not IPO
Oracle is a neo-cloud that took on massive debt to build out infrastructure which may prove excess in the near term; the stock already failed at the 200-day moving average and is giving back its post-earnings gap
“these neo-clouds are the first casualties on this pullback”
AI Will Kill Us All... It's Also A Great Excuse To Not IPO
Said again: 2026-09-24 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Procter & Gamble has dropped from 180 to 140 in a short period and the selloff looks overdone, setting up a mean-reversion bounce
“Proctor 180 to 140 in not too long a time here... I think it's getting a little overdone”
90d +3.1% · 180d +9.8%
Final Trade: BA, C, PG, NFLX
Home Depot has established a near-term price bottom making it a buy
“Home Depot, I think it's put in a near-term bottom”
90d -5.9% · 180d +1.8%
Final Trade: RIO, KBWB, HD, GDX
Costco was overdone to the downside last year as a consumer staple and is positioned for a rally this year
“really overdone last year. I think it's going to have a little rally this year.”
90d +16.5% · 180d +8.8%
Final Trade: NVO, JPM, COST, MPC
Energy sector ETF is a buy because Exxon is showing technical readiness for a move higher
“If Exxon looks like it's ready to party, I think you buy the XLE”
90d +24.3% · 180d +29.6%
Final Trade: JPM, KRE, XLE, HMY
S&P at ~19x forward earnings is overvalued — the market has priced in all the Fed hikes but not the consequences: if hikes materialize, multiples must compress further; if they don't reach the dot plot, stagflation follows, and neither scenario supports…
“I just don't see the ability for the stock market to get back to the 4,800 level in the S&P 500 anytime soon”
90d +16.1% · 180d +15.9% · 1y +10.9%
Fear is the Market Killer with Gavin Baker of Atreides Management (3/25/22)
2019-09-19
GRUB
bearish
Delivering Alpha · video
GrubHub's valuation remains stretched relative to its thin GAAP profits ($26M net on $1B sales) while Amazon and Uber Eats, both willing to lose money on every order, attack from all sides
“the valuation is what you can continue to go after in an environment where the competition is coming from all sides”
The best ideas from Delivering Alpha
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click