c8alpha
Investors / stance tracking

What Thomas Hayes is saying

Guest

23 dated public stances tracked since 2020-12-01, most recently 2026-07-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Thomas Hayes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Thomas Hayes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

23
tracked stances
19
themes
1
side flips
2026-07-27
last heard
Returns  90d +15.3% (n=12) · 180d +28.7% (n=12) · 1y +5.0% (n=7)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

INTC — bullish2025-11-05 → bearish2026-06-17

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
INTC21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-06-17
SPX22 bullish2025-07-15
AAPL11 bearish2025-02-05
BABA11 bullish2025-11-05
BANKS11 bullish2020-12-17
BAX11 bullish2026-07-27

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-07-27 PYPL bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
PayPal is generating record free cash flow, record earnings, and record revenue with Venmo and BNPL each growing 20%, while a Stripe/Advent acquisition offer at $60.50 sets a floor and the board is likely to extract $75–85 in a deal or drive the stock to…
“Good things happen when you buy good businesses at great prices — best thing is they reject all offers and run it over $100 a share”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 SEMICONDUCTORS AND MEMORY (AI TRADE) bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
Crowded AI/semiconductor/memory trade is unwinding because hyperscaler earnings will reveal either rising capex with negative free cash flow (dilutive) or capex cuts (negative for chip demand), and names are already down ~25% from recent highs with more pain…
“Get out of the crowded AI trade, semiconductors and memory — on average they're down 25% in the last month”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 BAX bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
Baxter is at trough earnings (~$3.50 normalized EPS vs $22–23 stock), healthcare is at 25-year lows relative to the S&P, and new CEO Andrew Hitter brings Danaher operating principles from a proven track record — target $50 in 36 months
“This is going to earn $3.50 a share normalized. It's a $22, $23 stock today. We think it's going to 50 over the next 36 months.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 CBRL bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
New CEO David Deno (former Bloomin' Brands) brings proven restaurant turnaround experience, consumer confidence is bouncing off lows, and the stock's near-term weakness from kitchen-sink write-downs on CEO transition creates a long-term entry in a business…
“Every single off-ramp on all the major highways has a Cracker Barrel — if you can't make that work, good luck”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 HEALTHCARE SECTOR bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
Healthcare relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest valuation in 25 years, offering defensive exposure and a contrarian opportunity to be fearful when others are greedy
“Healthcare relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest levels in 25 years — you want healthcare exposure, be a little defensive”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 MAG SEVEN bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
Mag Seven have dramatically underperformed indices this year and face a binary earnings risk: increasing capex signals dilution while cutting capex pressures semiconductors, so the group remains a laggard
“We said lighten up on the mag seven — they've become the lag seven, dramatically underperformed the indices”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27 TSLA bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
Tesla has lost its core auto business in China to domestic competitors, humanoid robots are unproven, and at current valuation one can buy free-cash-flowing businesses without betting on an undemonstrated pivot, so the stock is uninvestable on the long side
“Never. Never. The Chinese out-competed Tesla in automobiles in China. That old dog don't hunt.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-06-17 INTC bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
Intel has run significantly from their entry ($19–21 to $96–97 exit) and much of the good news is now priced in, making a further pullback likely before any next leg higher.
“We just think that much of it is priced in. I think it goes lower before it goes higher.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
2026-06-17 XRAY bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
Dentsply Sirona is a turnaround play driven by a new CEO with a proven track record, aggressive cost cuts, a return-to-growth plan, and meaningful insider buying of over half a million dollars in the past week.
“the board of directors insiders have bought over a half a million dollars of shares out of their own pocket in the last week”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
2026-06-17 VFC bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
VF Corp is a turnaround driven by CEO Bracken Darrell (who produced a 26x return at Logitech), who has deleveraged the balance sheet, divested non-core assets, and returned three of four brands to growth with accelerating margins.
“Margins are accelerating. This is going to be a great turnaround story for the next 2 years.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
2025-11-05 GNRC bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Generac's data center backup generator backlog is set to grow from $300M to $500M by next year, making it a backdoor AI data center play that the market is mispricing as purely a hurricane/utility stock
“that backlog is going to a half a billion dollars by next year just on data centers alone”
90d +8.9% · 180d +61.5%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05 SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Small and midcaps have been outperforming large caps since July/August while remaining reasonably valued outside the frothy mega-cap AI pocket that everyone is chasing
“you could effectively throw a dart at a board and find a reasonably valued stock”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05 PLTR bearish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Palantir trades at 250x sales on $1B revenue, and investors are paying for too many years of perfect execution upfront at that valuation
“you're paying for too many years of perfect execution upfront”
90d +16.0% · 180d +22.3%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05 BABA bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Alibaba is the cheapest AI play in the world, trading at a significant discount to US peers while offering both e-commerce and cloud businesses essentially for free on top of the AI optionality
“that's the cheapest AI play in the world right now”
90d -0.7% · 180d -19.1%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05 INTC bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Intel is a cheap way to play the AI revolution as the government-backed domestic chip manufacturer that will supply the supply-constrained bottleneck serving Nvidia, AMD, and ARM chip designers
“Intel is a cheap way to play the AI revolution”
90d +28.3% · 180d +149.6%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05 CRK bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Comstock Resources is the lowest-cost natural gas producer in the Haynesville shale and benefits from the energy demand required to power AI data centers
“the lowest cost natural gas producer in the Hannesville shale”
90d +6.3% · 180d -15.9%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-07-15 SPX bullish Fox Varney & Co · video
Every V-shaped recovery of this magnitude since 1950 has been followed by an additional ~22% gain over the next 12 months, and trapped bears being forced to chase laggards extends the move even after the market is technically overbought
“In V-shaped recoveries, you tend to stay overbought. People got caught off sides. They're forced to chase the indices.”
90d +6.9% · 180d +12.4% · 1y +22.7%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business Appearance - Varney & Co. - 7/15/2025
2025-02-05 AAPL bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
Apple is prime regulatory retaliation target for both China and the EU's anti-coercive instrument due to its App Store monopoly collecting a 30% cut on every app, making it an easy mark as tariff tensions escalate
“Apple has a monopoly with the App Store they get 30% Vig on every single app so that's going to be an easy target”
90d +14.5% · 180d +12.3% · 1y -19.2%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business Appearance - Varney & Co. - 2/5/2025
2025-02-05 GOOGL bearish Fox Varney & Co · video
DeepSeek poses an existential competitive threat to Alphabet's AI spend while the company is committing $75 billion in capex with no demonstrated ROI and already missed cloud revenue estimates
“it's an existential threat and this is defensive spending”
90d +14.6% · 180d -2.2% · 1y -73.8%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business Appearance - Varney & Co. - 2/5/2025
2025-02-05 short MAGNIFICENT 7 / long Big Tech pair Fox Varney & Co · video
Trim Mag 7 where earnings growth decelerates from 33% to 21% with elevated multiples and unproven AI capex ROI, and rotate into the rest of the market where earnings growth is accelerating and valuations are cheaper
“lighten up just a little bit... look at some of the cheaper stocks for 2025”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business Appearance - Varney & Co. - 2/5/2025
2020-12-17 BANKS bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Yield curve steepening expectations are at their highest recorded level, and the prior three instances (Nov 2016, Aug 2013, late 2008) were optimal bank entry points because rising net interest margins and reserve releases drive earnings — Hayes cites WFC up…
“all three times were the perfect times to buy banks because net interest margins increase they're going to release a lot of reserves”
90d +31.8% · 180d +30.8% · 1y +30.5%
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 12/17/2020
2020-12-17 SPX bullish Fox Claman Countdown · video
Fed holding short rates low through 2023, $120B/month in asset purchases, $900B fiscal bridge to full vaccination by Q2, and $20T in global fiscal and monetary stimulus create a backdrop where any near-term consolidation should be bought rather than sold, as…
“we are going to consolidate some gains that should be used to purchase versus sell”
90d +7.2% · 180d +14.9% · 1y +25.7%
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 12/17/2020
2020-12-01 long ENERGY / long DEFENSE / long BANKS basket Fox Claman Countdown · video
Early new business cycle rotation will persist as energy, defense, and banks dramatically outpaced tech in November and the trend continues into the next economic cycle
“the rotation that we saw in november is real...that's going to persist moving forward”
90d +24.4% · 180d +37.7% · 1y +31.3%
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 12/1/2020

Idea Scout Weekly

Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 845 voices, 2,419 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.

Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click

Newest stances reach Brief subscribers first; these pages update on a one-week lag.