Investors / stance tracking
What Tom Hayes is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & chairman, Great Hill Capital
73 dated public stances tracked since 2020-09-15, most recently 2026-10-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tom Hayes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tom Hayes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
73
tracked stances
51
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-26
last heard
Returns 90d +14.2% 77% correct · 30 calls · 180d +37.1% 89% correct · 18 calls · 1y +21.0% 71% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | ORCL | bearish | -5.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | GOOGL | bearish | +5.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | TSLA | bearish | -26.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | CBRL | bullish | +31.8% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | BAX | bullish | +8.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | XRAY | bullish | -2.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | VFC | bullish | -23.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | INTC | bearish | +19.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | PYPL | bullish | +24.1% | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | ETSY | bullish | +1.5% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | Em Equities | bullish | -0.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | BABA | bullish | -10.5% | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | INTC | bullish | +53.7% | +37.3% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | PLTR | bearish | +16.0% | +22.3% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | INTC | bullish | +28.3% | +149.6% | — |
| 2025-11-05 | GNRC | bullish | +8.9% | +61.5% | — |
| 2025-10-22 | NFLX | bearish | +21.8% | +15.1% | +39.9% |
| 2025-09-22 | ENERGY | bullish | +1.7% | +38.1% | +45.0% |
| 2025-09-22 | CRK | bullish | +23.4% | +20.0% | -24.6% |
| 2025-09-22 | BABA | bullish | -8.1% | -23.3% | -28.5% |
| 2025-07-15 | SPX | bullish | +6.9% | +12.4% | +22.7% |
| 2025-04-11 | DIS | bullish | +43.8% | +32.4% | +20.5% |
| 2025-04-11 | BA | bullish | +44.2% | +43.7% | +41.6% |
| 2025-02-05 | GOOGL | bearish | +14.6% | -2.2% | -73.8% |
| 2025-02-05 | AAPL | bearish | +14.5% | +12.3% | -19.2% |
| 2020-12-17 | SPX | bullish | +7.2% | +14.9% | +25.7% |
| 2020-12-17 | BANKS | bullish | +31.8% | +30.8% | +30.5% |
| 2020-12-01 | long ENERGY / long DEFENSE / long BANKS | basket | +24.4% | +37.7% | +31.3% |
| 2020-09-15 | long WFC / long BANKS / long BANKS | basket | +26.3% | +72.5% | +75.0% |
| 2020-09-15 | SCHW | bullish | +44.0% | +92.3% | +107.3% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-10-15 | |
| INTC | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-06-17 | |
| SPX | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-10-26 | |
| BA | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-15 | |
| CRK | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-18 | |
| DIS | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-09-29 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-26
long MSFT / long AMZN / long GOOGL
basket
Fox Business (uncut) · uncut_tv
Cloud revenue growth is the key ROI validation for AI capex spend — if MSFT, AWS, and Google Cloud hit their growth targets (45%, 38%, 82% respectively), the hyperscalers stabilize and provide a broader market bounce catalyst
“if we see the growth in the cloud, I think those stocks are going to be okay”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-26 09:01 ET (5 min)
Q4 marks the first time the un-magnificent 493 earnings growth (30%) outpaces MAG7 hyperscalers (23%), so cheaper non-tech names should attract rotation capital before consensus catches up
“you want to start to get into some of these cheaper stocks before everyone else does”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-26 09:01 ET (5 min)
2026-10-26
Ai Infra
bearish
Fox Business (uncut) · uncut_tv
Semiconductor and memory stocks have run 3–10x on the AI trade, leaving the positioning overcrowded and subject to ongoing deleveraging that outweighs any near-term dead-cat bounce
“I would avoid those for now. They've run up three to 10X. That trade is a little bit overcrowded”
Fox Business uncut 2026-10-26 09:01 ET (5 min)
2026-10-21
long INDUSTRIALS / short Ai Infra
pair
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
AI cost centers (hyperscalers, semiconductors) face ~$100B negative forward free cash flow and declining ROIC while AI beneficiaries (natural gas, industrials applying AI) capture the technological tailwind without the capex burden, making…
“reaping the benefits of all the capex without having to sink money into the ground is historically the way to play these big technological revolutions”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 366 - October 21, 2026
PayPal CEO is cutting middle management to accelerate decision-making, the company is on track to repurchase 45% of shares outstanding over three years, stablecoin adoption would drive incremental transaction volume, and sentiment is at deeply pessimistic…
“the pessimism around PayPal exemplifies the extremes on the downside”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 366 - October 21, 2026
2026-10-21
CONSUMER STAPLES
bullish
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
Consumer staples outperformed technology by nearly 14% last week, a magnitude seen only three times — at the March 2000 NASDAQ top, July 2022 bear market lows, and October 2000 early dot-com collapse — signaling a generational rotation as AI cost centers'…
“XLP has outperformed XLK by at least 14% only on three occasions — first was March 2000, which was the NASDAQ top”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 366 - October 21, 2026
Healthcare's weight in the S&P 500 is at its lowest relative to technology since the March 2000 NASDAQ peak, while the S&P 490's earnings are set to surpass the Magnificent 7 for the first time since 2022, driving defensive rotation into the most washed-out…
“you haven't had healthcare this washed out relative to tech and the S&P in 27 years — which was the tech peak”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 366 - October 21, 2026
2026-10-15
long Long Dur Treasuries / short Ai Infra
pair
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
Half a trillion in hyperscaler bonds predicated on perpetually high OpenAI/Anthropic growth is mispriced as that growth decelerates, forcing capital from crowded AI infrastructure equity into Treasuries and making long bonds and short/avoid AI CapEx the same…
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Dentsply Sirona is at the trough of the MedTech earnings cycle expected to reaccelerate from Q3, holds $922M liquidity with no major maturity until June 2030, and management is actively buying back shares while reducing leverage
“You can imagine what amounts of Dentsply Sirona we've been buying in the last 2 weeks”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Alibaba is the cheapest AI play globally — AI cloud revenue compounding triple digits for 10+ quarters, owns ~1/3 of Moonshot AI (reportedly IPO-ing at $50B = $15B unpriced stake), is the primary toll-taker on a Chinese middle-class recovery as real estate…
“The cheapest AI play in the world — AI revenue triple digits per quarter for 12 quarters and you can't give the stock away”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Olivia Rodrigo (this generation's Taylor Swift) wears multiple pairs of Vans at every night of her sold-out Unravel Tour through May 2027, SZA has a Vans collaboration at Zara, Piper Sandler teen survey confirms brand resurgence, and the stock is at $17 after…
“Olivia Rodrigo wearing three or four different pairs of Vans every night on a sold-out tour”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Boeing won both the FA-XX Navy fighter and the F-47 Air Force program — hundreds of billions in production over aircraft lifetimes — while commercial deliveries are ramping, a $715B backlog provides decade-plus coverage, free cash flow inflects positive in…
“Deliver more planes, generate more cash — it boils down to that simple equation”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Papa John's is at the bottom of a recurring 4-5 year consumer-discretionary revenue cycle, has $500M liquidity against $700M net debt with no major maturity until 2029, and historically performs well in recessions — making debt fears an overshoot that creates…
“It does really well in recession — if good operations doesn't fix it, a recession will”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Brad Jacobs is executing the same accretive roll-up playbook in building/commercial supplies that produced 200x in United Rentals and 50x in XPO; stock is at $10 on debt fears while Jacobs raises at 10-20x EBITDA and buys at 5-10x, and the housing shortage…
“This is like shooting ducks in a barrel — Brad Jacobs has done it every single time”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Stanley Black & Decker's $2.1B cost restructuring is complete, gross margins recovered from 19.5% to 33.7%, balance sheet repaired to 2.5x leverage, and the DeWalt drilling robot is already capturing data-center construction spending — all while the stock is…
“Management's entire growth plan is built around a broadly flat market — no housing recovery baked in”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Memory and commodity chips are experiencing the same inevitable cycle — shortage, capacity flood, demand wane — while Chinese, Korean, and Japanese producers are undercutting margins in real time; the AI CapEx debt load is unsustainable and the dead-cat…
“High prices cure high prices — did you think the Chinese and Koreans would let Micron have the margins in perpetuity?”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Diageo is a defensive staples play with $6B liquidity actively paying down debt, bottomed at $71 in April, and is recovering alongside the broader defensive rotation Hayes expects to persist for the next 6-12 months
“Defensive, bottomed at 71, shot to 97, back to 83, now 95 — headed over 100 and beyond”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Pfizer bottomed at $23 with a 6% yield and is now breaking out above $30 at the trough of the MedTech earnings cycle; Hayes expresses the position with long-dated options for asymmetric upside
“You couldn't give it away with a 6% yield — now it's breaking out at $30 and going higher”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
2026-10-15
CPS
bullish
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
Cooper Standard has already refinanced debt through 2031 removing near-term solvency risk, all contracts were renegotiated to pass through inflation, and hybrid/EV vehicle content is 80% higher per vehicle than ICE — none of which was in the original…
“Contracts renegotiated for inflation — as input costs go up, they get paid more”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Hormel is a defensive consumer staples name that sold off with rate fears and was loaded up at the lows near $18; Hayes expects it to make new 52-week highs within months as the broader defensive rotation continues
“Ripped from 19 to 26, situational unawareness ripped it to 18 — we were loading the bus”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
2026-10-15
Small Caps
bullish
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
Small caps just had their second-worst quarter versus the S&P this century, yet ISM manufacturing is expanding and $8T sits in money markets; they are the most nimble AI adopters and their rate sensitivity is now a coiled spring as yield increases decelerate
“Small caps are like a beach ball held underwater — coiled spring that are going to absolutely explode higher”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
Said again: 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
2026-10-15
GOOS
bullish
Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) · video
Canada Goose traded to $7 on debt and tariff fears while free cash flow and revenues were both rising; value was going up while the price was going down, and the stock is now aggressively recovering
“Cash flow was rising, revenues were rising — while the price was going down, the value was going up”
Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - VideoCast - Episode 365 - October 15, 2026
SpaceX/Starlink Mobile must rent Crown Castle's 40,000 towers to achieve indoor coverage in dense areas, while the company has deleveraged and shed its capital-consuming fiber business, leaving a clean pure-play cell tower with a 5.3% dividend yield
“Crown Castle is perfectly positioned. They've paid down debt. They've sold off their capital consuming fiber business.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 10/12/26
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes)), 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Streaming business proved wrong the consensus view of perpetual losses, now generating $700M operating profit with 195M subscribers, making it a cleaner streaming long than Netflix at current prices
“Disney actually makes $700 million in operating profit from its streaming business, which everyone said would be perpetually unprofitable”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 9/29/26
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
AI beneficiary via warehouse/logistics implementation rather than AI developer spend; inventory cycle inflection, 50% off peak, CEO from DHL winning record contracts, humanoid robots in warehouses, trades at half XPO's multiple with November 15 investor day…
“We believe they could more than double over the next 3-5 years”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 9/29/26
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Preferred quantum computing play over pure-plays like IonQ because IBM's existing business lines provide free cash flow to finance the bridge between current nascent technology and future monetization
“I like your idea about IBM because you have a back-up in other businesses”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 9/29/26
Comstock Resources is the lowest-cost natural gas producer in the Haynesville Shale (ideally located near data center demand), and 60% of the 165%-by-2030 data center electricity growth will be fueled by natural gas — all available at under a $4B market cap
“you can get it under $4 billion market cap today”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 8/18/26
Said again: 2026-09-29 (Fox Varney & Co), 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes)), 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
2026-08-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Fox Varney & Co · video
European fiscal stress (UK/German/French yields at decade highs due to energy war costs) will drive safe-haven flows into US Treasuries, compressing yields as the consensus is wrong-footed expecting further hikes
“the more trouble you see in Europe, the better it is for US Treasuries”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 8/18/26
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes)), 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
Memory is a highly cyclical commodity business with new capacity coming online, and Micron is pricing in excessive AI-driven demand that is no longer as critical now that inference (CPU-centric) has displaced training (GPU/HBM-centric)
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get. AI is going to change the world. There are better plays”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 8/18/26
Oracle's credit default swap spreads are at record levels — higher than during the Great Financial Crisis — signaling deteriorating credit quality alongside negative free cash flow and record debt issuance across hyperscalers.
“Oracle's cost to insure their debt is higher than it was during the great financial crisis”
90d -5.5%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
Alphabet turned free cash flow negative for the first time in its history while committing to higher capex, stopped buybacks, issued both debt and equity diluting shareholders, and reported earnings inflated by mark-to-market gains on SpaceX and Anthropic…
“Your earnings are inflated because a lot of your earnings are from other income — it's the mark-to-market on your SpaceX and the mark-to-market on your Anthropic”
90d +5.0%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
SEMICONDUCTOR AND MEMORY CHIP STOCKS
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
The trade is the most crowded globally with institutional and retail buying calls at record highs, valuations are extreme, and these are cyclical businesses that cannot sustain high multiples — more pain ahead into fall with seasonal and election-cycle…
“Sell these shiny objects that are overcrowded”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
CONSUMER STAPLES AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Consumer confidence has bounced off multi-year lows and the consumer is doing better, making staples and discretionary the preferred rotation out of crowded tech.
“You want to be consumer staples, consumer discretionary”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-27
SEMICONDUCTORS AND MEMORY (AI TRADE)
bearish
Fox Varney & Co · video
Crowded AI/semiconductor/memory trade is unwinding because hyperscaler earnings will reveal either rising capex with negative free cash flow (dilutive) or capex cuts (negative for chip demand), and names are already down ~25% from recent highs with more pain…
“Get out of the crowded AI trade, semiconductors and memory — on average they're down 25% in the last month”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
Baxter is at trough earnings (~$3.50 normalized EPS vs $22–23 stock), healthcare is at 25-year lows relative to the S&P, and new CEO Andrew Hitter brings Danaher operating principles from a proven track record — target $50 in 36 months
“This is going to earn $3.50 a share normalized. It's a $22, $23 stock today. We think it's going to 50 over the next 36 months.”
90d +8.4%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes)), 2026-10-21 (Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes))
New CEO David Deno (former Bloomin' Brands) brings proven restaurant turnaround experience, consumer confidence is bouncing off lows, and the stock's near-term weakness from kitchen-sink write-downs on CEO transition creates a long-term entry in a business…
“Every single off-ramp on all the major highways has a Cracker Barrel — if you can't make that work, good luck”
90d +31.8%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27
HEALTHCARE SECTOR
bullish
Fox Varney & Co · video
Healthcare relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest valuation in 25 years, offering defensive exposure and a contrarian opportunity to be fearful when others are greedy
“Healthcare relative to the S&P 500 is at its lowest levels in 25 years — you want healthcare exposure, be a little defensive”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
2026-07-27
MAG SEVEN
bearish
Fox Varney & Co · video
Mag Seven have dramatically underperformed indices this year and face a binary earnings risk: increasing capex signals dilution while cutting capex pressures semiconductors, so the group remains a laggard
“We said lighten up on the mag seven — they've become the lag seven, dramatically underperformed the indices”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
Tesla has lost its core auto business in China to domestic competitors, humanoid robots are unproven, and at current valuation one can buy free-cash-flowing businesses without betting on an undemonstrated pivot, so the stock is uninvestable on the long side
“Never. Never. The Chinese out-competed Tesla in automobiles in China. That old dog don't hunt.”
90d -26.6%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 7/27/26
Intel has run significantly from their entry ($19–21 to $96–97 exit) and much of the good news is now priced in, making a further pullback likely before any next leg higher.
“We just think that much of it is priced in. I think it goes lower before it goes higher.”
90d +19.8%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Fox Claman Countdown)
Dentsply Sirona is a turnaround play driven by a new CEO with a proven track record, aggressive cost cuts, a return-to-growth plan, and meaningful insider buying of over half a million dollars in the past week.
“the board of directors insiders have bought over a half a million dollars of shares out of their own pocket in the last week”
90d -2.0%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
Said again: 2026-07-28 (Fox Claman Countdown)
VF Corp is a turnaround driven by CEO Bracken Darrell (who produced a 26x return at Logitech), who has deleveraged the balance sheet, divested non-core assets, and returned three of four brands to growth with accelerating margins.
“Margins are accelerating. This is going to be a great turnaround story for the next 2 years.”
90d -23.3%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 6/17/26
PayPal is down 80% from 2021 highs yet revenues and free cash flow are at records, margins are inflecting, and the stock trades at only 8x earnings while buying back $6B of stock this year — a valuation and growth-reacceleration setup the market is ignoring
“PayPal at eight times earnings… the growth is reaccelerating. People aren't paying attention yet.”
90d +24.1%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
Said again: 2026-07-27 (Fox Varney & Co)
Etsy is down 80% from 2021 highs but revenues are at records, margins are starting to inflect, buybacks are large, and the stock trades at only 11x earnings — a compressed-multiple turnaround the market is ignoring
“Their margins are starting to inflect. No one's paying attention. They're trading at record low multiples.”
90d +1.5%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2026-06-16
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTORS / AI TRADE
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
The AI/semiconductor trade is the most crowded trade globally per BofA FMS, hyperscaler CapEx as a share of free cash flow is at 98% forcing equity issuance, and Q2 earnings risk CapEx guidance cuts — together these catalysts should cool the trade over the…
“I think you're going to see a pullback in that crowded trade that's moved up a lot.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
Falling inflation expectations will lift consumer confidence off multi-year lows, benefiting consumer-facing stocks that have been neglected while capital flooded the AI trade
“You can buy these consumer stocks that have been out of favor and make some money while people are worried about their AI trade.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2026-05-24
long CYCLICALS, DIVIDEND PAYERS, DEFENSIVES / short OVERHEATED TECH AND SEMICONDUCTORS
pair
Fox Mornings with Maria · video
Iran conflict resolution would cause oil and Treasury yields to drop sharply, eliminating the only condition sustaining tech/semi dominance and triggering a powerful rotation into the beaten-down cyclicals, dividend payers, and defensives that have lagged for…
“Watch what happens to cyclicals...you are going to see these stocks roar”
Maria Bartiromo: These numbers are 'MIND-BOGGLING' | The Week Unfiltered
2026-05-19
short SEMIS / long DEFENSIVE DIVIDEND STOCKS
pair
Fox Varney & Co · video
As the Iran geopolitical risk resolves, inflation expectations fall and rate-cut expectations return, rotating the market out of the crowded semiconductor/tech leadership into lagging defensive dividend-paying stocks
“You're going to start to see semiconductors take a breather... defensives were popping up... expect to see more of that.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 5/19/26
2026-05-14
short SEMIS / long CYCLICAL / MAIN STREET EQUITIES
pair
Fox Varney & Co · video
Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices fall, the inflation-fear bid in tech/semis reverses while capital rotates into Main Street cyclicals that have been left behind during the energy-driven risk-off
“I think tech and semis will take a breather and cyclical businesses are going to rip higher”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 5/14/26
Alibaba is the cheapest AI play globally with 11 consecutive quarters of triple-digit AI revenue growth, dominant positions in Chinese e-commerce (40% share) and cloud (38% share), access to Nvidia H200 chips, and US-China thaw historically drives…
“It's the cheapest AI play in the world”
90d -10.5%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 5/14/26
2026-05-14
Em Equities
bullish
Fox Varney & Co · video
EM stocks are at their cheapest relative to US equities in 25 years, representing a generational buy opportunity, with China names set to outperform on US-China diplomatic progress
“Emerging market stocks relative to the US are the cheapest they've been in 25 years”
90d -0.9%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co - Appearance - 5/14/26
Lip-Bu Tan's proven turnaround track record (68-bagger at Cadence), surging CPU demand driven by the agentic AI and inference phase of the AI buildout, and a margin trajectory from 36% toward 50%+ (versus TSMC at 55% and Nvidia at 75%) create multi-year…
“the story of tomorrow is Intel”
90d +53.7% · 180d +37.3%
Stocks Fall on Iran Jitters, Intel Delivers Earnings Beat | The Close 4/23/2026
Generac's data center backup generator backlog is set to grow from $300M to $500M by next year, making it a backdoor AI data center play that the market is mispricing as purely a hurricane/utility stock
“that backlog is going to a half a billion dollars by next year just on data centers alone”
90d +8.9% · 180d +61.5%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-11-05
SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Small and midcaps have been outperforming large caps since July/August while remaining reasonably valued outside the frothy mega-cap AI pocket that everyone is chasing
“you could effectively throw a dart at a board and find a reasonably valued stock”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
Palantir trades at 250x sales on $1B revenue, and investors are paying for too many years of perfect execution upfront at that valuation
“you're paying for too many years of perfect execution upfront”
90d +16.0% · 180d +22.3%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
Intel is a cheap way to play the AI revolution as the government-backed domestic chip manufacturer that will supply the supply-constrained bottleneck serving Nvidia, AMD, and ARM chip designers
“Intel is a cheap way to play the AI revolution”
90d +28.3% · 180d +149.6%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 11/5/2025
2025-10-22
MAGNIFICENT 7
bearish
Fox Varney & Co · video
Mag7 is priced for perfection at 30x earnings while growth has decelerated from 32% to 14% YoY, and the group carries 32% S&P weight on only 23% of index EPS, leaving no margin of safety if guidance disappoints
“within the Magnificent 7, they are priced for perfection”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co Appearance - 10/22/25
Netflix missed on both the top and bottom lines with lower margin guidance, marking a 'thud' start to Mag7 earnings season and suggesting the stock needs a rest
“if your number one show is called K-pop Demon Hunters, it may be time for your stock to take a rest”
90d +21.8% · 180d +15.1% · 1y +39.9%
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Varney & Co Appearance - 10/22/25
Alibaba offers the cheapest global AI exposure via $80B cash, $25B free cash flow, 40% Chinese compute market share, and equity stakes extracted from every Chinese AI company in exchange for cloud capacity
“Alibaba was the cheapest way to play AI around the world”
90d -8.1% · 180d -23.3% · 1y -28.5%
Tom Hayes - Claman Countdown Appearance - 09/22/2025
Said again: 2025-11-05 (Fox Claman Countdown)
Comstock Resources is the largest Haynesville shale operator, trading at book value with 10-year proved reserves and 30 years unproved, ideally sited near LNG export terminals to capture AI-driven natural gas demand
“This could be a $45 stock from 16 over the next three years”
90d +23.4% · 180d +20.0% · 1y -24.6%
Tom Hayes - Claman Countdown Appearance - 09/22/2025
Said again: 2025-11-05 (Fox Claman Countdown)
Showing the 60 most recent of 73 tracked stances.
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