Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.
| Theme | Proxy | Direction | Speakers | Who |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | SPY | LONG | 5 | Jay Hatfield (Infrastructure Capital), Julian Emanuel, Ryan Detrick, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Vance Howard (Howard Capital) |
| NVDA | NVDA | LONG | 5 (1 dissenter) | Bill Baruch (Blue Line), Joe Terranova (Virtus), Josh Brown (Ritholtz), Kevin Mahn (Hennion & Walsh), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) |
| ENERGY | XLE | LONG | 4 | Jeff Currie, Jim Lebenthal (Cerity), Mike Aikens, Rick Rule |
| GOLD | GLD | LONG | 3 | Chris Harvey, Jeff Currie, Rick Rule |
| META | META | LONG | 3 | Bill Baruch (Blue Line), Kevin Simpson (Capital Wealth), Steve Weiss (Short Hills) |
| DAL | DAL | LONG | 3 | Ed Bastian, Jim Lebenthal (Cerity), Joe Terranova (Virtus) |
| SK | SK | LONG | 3 | Ben Reitzes, Christina Partsnevelis, Kevin Mahn (Hennion & Walsh) |
No themes are genuinely split this week — the standing map below carries the longer-running fault lines.
The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.
GOLD LONG (19 for, 1 against) · COMMODITIES_BROAD LONG (8 for, 1 against) · COPPER LONG (7 for, 0 against) · META LONG (6 for, 1 against) · PRIVATE_CREDIT SHORT (6 for, 0 against) · MU LONG (5 for, 1 against) · SK LONG (5 for, 0 against)
The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.
| Speaker | Theme | Was | Now | Held prior view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bass | ENERGY | LONG (2022-09-14) | SHORT (2026-04-30) | 1,324d |
| Nouriel Roubini | USTS | SHORT (2022-12-16) | LONG (2026-06-01) | 1,263d |
| Ben Felix | USTS | LONG (2023-08-29) | SHORT (2026-04-30) | 975d |
| Paul Tudor Jones | USTS | LONG (2024-02-14) | SHORT (2026-04-28) | 804d |
| Nouriel Roubini | USD | SHORT (2025-05-08) | LONG (2026-05-06) | 363d |
| Bill Ackman | MSFT | SHORT (2025-11-29) | LONG (2026-06-03) | 186d |
| Bill Ackman | META | SHORT (2025-11-29) | LONG (2026-06-03) | 186d |
| Stephanie Link (Hightower) | META | LONG (2025-12-22) | SHORT (2026-06-25) | 185d |
Specific-ticker calls from canonical speakers with a positive 90d prior track record (mean signed return > 0 across n≥3 matured prior calls). The track-record column is the speaker’s prior hit rate — the credibility signal for featuring the call. Each pick below is fresh, so its own 90d result is still maturing (date shown). Not part of any consensus or divergence theme above.
| Ticker | Dir | Speaker | Speaker prior 90d | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRTX | LONG | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | +15.2% · 78% hit · n=23 | result matures 2026-10-06 Vertex's acquisition announced the prior day diversifies its product line beyond the core franchise, expanding the long-term growth profile [video] |
| AMZN | LONG | Stephanie Link (Hightower) | +8.1% · 40% hit · n=5 | result matures 2026-10-01 Amazon has derated to 23x forward earnings (vs 5-year avg 34x, 10-year avg 45x) and 11x EBITDA while AWS grows 28%, the ad business targets $100B revenue by 2030, and a custom-chip business adds a pot [video] |
| NOW | LONG | Stephanie Link (Hightower) | +8.1% · 40% hit · n=5 | result matures 2026-10-01 ServiceNow has derated to 23x forward estimates versus its 5-year average of 54x while still growing revenues 20%, subscription revenue 21%, and EPS 20% with mid-70s gross margins — mission-critical w [video] |
| TGT | LONG | Stephanie Link (Hightower) | +8.1% · 40% hit · n=5 | result matures 2026-10-01 First-hand channel checks in LA confirm strong product quality and store traffic; same-store sales are positioned to grow mid-single digits; the stock trades at only 16x forward estimates after prolon [video] |
Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.
| Type | Structure | Speaker | Horizon | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAIR | LONG SK / SHORT MU | Christina Partsnevelis | months | SK Hynix trades at ~5-6x forward earnings vs Micron's ~7x despite holding 58% HBM share vs Micron's 21% and being Nvidia's closest memory partner, making a long SK Hynix / underweight Micron relative- [video] |
| PAIR | LONG OIL MAJORS / SHORT AI HYPERSCALERS | Jeff Currie | multi-year | Oil majors generating ~15.5% free cash flow yield are a compelling relative-value long versus AI hyperscalers at near-zero FCF, as AI compute is a cyclical commodity with physical cost floors — not th [video] |
| PAIR | LONG ENERGY (XLE) / SHORT NVDA | Jeff Currie | multi-year | NVDA and the AI sector are overvalued at current market-cap weights relative to energy and hard assets, which are undervalued, and capital must rotate from the new economy to the old economy as the co [video] |
| BASKET | LONG NVDA / LONG GOOGL / LONG TSM / LONG MU / LONG VRT / LONG AEP / LONG SK | Kevin Mahn (Hennion & Walsh) | months | AI benefactors (foundry, memory, cooling, power) that RECEIVE the capex spending have outperformed the Mag-7 spenders by over 75pp in H1—equal-weighting them as 'air 7' captures the full AI infrastruc [video] |
| BASKET | LONG SLB / LONG DVN / LONG BIG_TECH (QQQ) / LONG HAL | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | months | A pullback across energy services and E&P names creates a buying opportunity as long as oil holds above $70, with SLB, DVN, FANG, and HAL all offering value at current levels [video] |
| HEDGE | LONG ENERGY (XLE) / SHORT SEPTEMBER 70 CALLS ON SAME NAME calls | Bryn Talkington (Requisite) | weeks | Long the E&P name while selling near-money September calls to monetize Iran-premium in implied volatility and reduce downside if oil retreats below $70 [video] |
| PAIR | LONG INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT (LQD) / SHORT USTS (IEF) | Torsten Slok | months | Hyperscalers issuing $700B+ in IG corporate debt are structurally crowding out investment-grade bond managers' demand for US Treasuries, as IG buyers now substitute hyperscaler paper for sovereigns an [video] |
| BASKET | LONG ENERGY (XLE) / LONG UTILITIES / LONG CONSUMER STAPLES / LONG INSURANCE | Julian Emanuel | months | Energy, utilities, consumer staples, and insurance stocks are moving inversely to the S&P 500 at the highest frequency in 25 years, offering genuine portfolio diversification against AI-concentrated m [video] |
| PAIR | LONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT EUROPEAN_EQUITIES (VGK) | Matthias Haim | multi-year | US deregulation (especially in financials) unlocks earnings growth while Europe faces a policy mismatch of rising rates in an already weak-growth environment and lacks the deregulation catalyst needed [video] |
| RATIO | LONG RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAPS / SHORT BIG_TECH (QQQ) | Brian A Finn | multi-year | Multi-strat funds have grown too large and are creating outsized short-term dislocations in small/mid-cap names, while the Russell 2000 still offers compelling valuations relative to large-cap indices [video] |
Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.
| Speaker | n₉₀ | Hit | Mean 90d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenlight / Einhorn (13F) | 3 | 100% | +26.8% |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) | 3 | 67% | +20.4% |
| Grant Williams | 9 | 44% | +16.5% |
| Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | 23 | 78% | +15.2% |
| David Einhorn | 11 | 100% | +10.0% |
| Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) | 4 | 75% | +9.5% |
| Cathie Wood | 37 | 54% | +8.1% |
| Stephanie Link (Hightower) | 5 | 40% | +8.1% |
| Barry Sternlicht | 11 | 82% | +7.4% |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | 25 | 52% | +7.0% |
| Bill Nygren | 53 | 70% | +7.0% |
| Paul Tudor Jones | 34 | 74% | +6.6% |
| Terry Smith | 3 | 67% | +6.6% |
| David Rubenstein | 5 | 80% | +6.6% |
| John Burbank | 6 | 33% | +6.3% |
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