The Brief — edition, Wednesday, October 28 2026
session 2026-10-28 · 687 liquid names scanned · insight, not advice
One idea OBSERVATION
The single most interesting thing in what investors said publicly this quarter — not a recommendation, and not a prediction.
**USTS draws a crowded debate but few actual positions on either side.**
Of 93 bullish people, only 5 hold the position: David Rosenberg, Jim Bianco, Liz Thomas, Rupert Mitchell and Sebastian Page. The bearish camp is smaller at 61 but similarly lightly positioned, with just 3 holders: Quinn Thompson, Ray Dalio and Steve Chiavarone. The gap between stated views and holdings runs through both camps.
Counted from the corpus: USTS splits the room: 93 bullish (5 positioned) against 61 bearish (3 positioned).
What changed in the themes OBSERVATION
Each desk theme against the prior edition (2026-10-27): movers versus the base rate, 8-K filings into the theme, and new dated views. Changed themes first.
AI & data centers changed
0 up, 27 down of 40 names moved >10% in 20 sessions; 4 8-Ks filed into the theme: AXTI, EXTR, ACMR, BHE; 6 new dated views (5 bullish): Unknown, Troy Gayeski, Alex Altmann, Mark Lehman
Biggest 20-session moves: WYFI -35.8%, UCTT -34.6%, IREN -32.5%, CRWV -30.1%
New dated views: Unknown (bullish), Troy Gayeski (bullish), Alex Altmann (bearish), Mark Lehman (bullish), Jim Cramer (CNBC) (bullish), Dom Rizzo (bullish)
Defense & drones changed
2 up, 7 down of 15 names moved >10% in 20 sessions; 2 8-Ks filed into the theme: ENVX, BBAI; 1 new dated view (1 bullish): Bill Baruch (Blue Line)
Biggest 20-session moves: INFQ -30.4%, USAR -28.3%, UMAC -28.0%, LMT +24.2%
New dated views: Bill Baruch (Blue Line) (bullish, holds it)
Energy (oil & gas) changed
14 up, 0 down of 19 names moved >10% in 20 sessions; 2 8-Ks filed into the theme: WHD, FELE; 2 new dated views (1 bullish): Larry Kudlow, Chris Wright
Biggest 20-session moves: RRC +50.9%, RIG +28.2%, AR +26.1%, APA +22.5%
New dated views: Larry Kudlow (bearish), Chris Wright (bullish)
Power & the grid changed
0 up, 3 down of 7 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (-35 pts vs last edition); 3 8-Ks filed into the theme: MYRG, PUMP, PLPC; 1 new dated view (1 bullish): Aaron Jagdfeld
Biggest 20-session moves: OKLO -28.3%, FPS -24.7%, BE -22.8%, ETN -9.5%
New dated views: Aaron Jagdfeld (bullish)
Space changed
2 up, 7 down of 11 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (+7 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: ASTS -31.0%, LMT +24.2%, LUNR -21.2%, RKLB -20.0%
Nuclear & uranium unchanged
1 up, 5 down of 11 names moved >10% in 20 sessions
Biggest 20-session moves: SMR -29.1%, OKLO -28.3%, NNE -24.5%, UUUU -23.9%
Robotics & autonomy unchanged
1 up, 4 down of 10 names moved >10% in 20 sessions
Biggest 20-session moves: TER -23.9%, PONY -22.6%, OUST -19.0%, RDW -15.8%
Has this worked? OBSERVATION
Every convergence we have ever flagged, priced from the next session’s open and measured against SPY over the same window — 291 of them at 60 sessions.
Average +0.74% vs SPY, but the median was 0.00% — the typical convergence matched the market exactly, and 43% beat it. The average is carried by a small number of large winners, not by being right consistently.
Build your own combination → How many voices, how many of them run money, whether anyone is actually positioned, macro or single names, and how long a hold.
Your book OBSERVATION
| Name | Price | 5d | IV (own-yr pctile) | Δ$ vs norm | Calls | Sell-put signals* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL Software Earnings today | $292.5 | -12.19% | IV 16.0 (0p) | Δ$ 1.0× | calls 64.9% | post-drop |
| GLD ETF | $373.51 | -1.44% | IV 21.2 (25p) | Δ$ 1.6× | calls 87.4% | not today |
| SLV ETF | $49.06 | -6.12% | IV 38.6 (27p) | Δ$ 0.7× | calls 64.4% | high vol + post-drop |
*The three validated put-selling signals — explained in the next section.
Rich premium today VALIDATED
What this means: if any of these is a stock you'd own at the right price,
today is a well-paid day to sell its put. We check three conditions, each
independently validated on ten years of real option quotes — every one, on its
own, earned put sellers more per trade than selling on a random day:
high vol — the options are expensive in absolute terms (IV ≥ 30)
top of its year — premium in the top quarter of that name's own trailing year
post-drop — the stock fell 5%+ this week; protection is being bid
More conditions = a better day. Signal is from last night's close and typically
persists days, not hours — verify the live quote at the open. The example contract
is the shape our validation used: ~40 days out, ~20-delta, held to expiry,
assignment acceptable.
| Name | IV | Own-yr pctile | Why today | Example contract (last close) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR Software Earnings in 5d | 78.8 | 99 | high vol, top of its year | Dec 4 $170p · $4.6 bid ≈ 2.71% / 37d |
| AMZN Retail Earnings in 1d | 54.0 | 97 | high vol, top of its year | Dec 4 $230p · $3.5 bid ≈ 1.52% / 37d |
| CAT Machinery Earnings in 1d | 50.1 | 93 | high vol, top of its year | Dec 4 $645p · $6.2 bid ≈ 0.96% / 37d |
| CSCO Tech Hardware | 45.2 | 91 | high vol, top of its year | Dec 4 $99p · $1.73 bid ≈ 1.75% / 37d |
| AMD Semis Earnings in 6d | 73.5 | 88 | high vol, top of its year | Dec 4 $500p · $11.2 bid ≈ 2.24% / 37d |
| AAPL Tech Hardware Earnings in 5d | 30.4 | 86 | high vol, top of its year | Nov 27 $325p · $3.4 bid ≈ 1.05% / 30d |
Fact feed OBSERVATION
LEAPS & size builds
| Name | Δ$ vs norm | Elevated (last 5) | LEAPS | Calls | Δ$ | 5d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPD Earnings in 7d | 10.8× | 2/5 | 46.5% | 92.4% | $6.7M | +21.67% |
| REPL Earnings in 7d | 9.9× | 3/5 | 45.1% | 66.5% | $9.2M | +37.68% |
| FFIV Tech Hardware Earnings 1d ago | 7.0× | 2/5 | 31.2% | 70.7% | $55.8M | -20.77% |
| PPG Pharma Earnings 1d ago | 5.0× | 2/5 | 40.0% | 87.6% | $9.7M | +8.92% |
| PAA Transport Earnings in 6d | 4.9× | 2/5 | 53.8% | 98.2% | $19.7M | +3.05% |
Volume out of the ordinary
The board OBSERVATION
What changed on the Idea Scout board since the last edition — new mentions from tracked speakers, flips against their own prior stance, and doubled-down repeats. Who said what, on the record — not who is right.
2 of today's 12 stances are from one conversation (Bloomberg TV (uncut), Oct 28).
2 of today's 8 voices are from one conversation (Bloomberg TV (uncut), Oct 28).
| Speaker | Idea | Call | Change | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Tchir — Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
QQQ ETF Strong earnings and support near 200-day moving averages favor a near-term bounce, although capital-spending… “So a little bit positive right now. But I think the doubts creep back in later this month.” |
LONG | new | Bloomberg TV (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Peter Tchir — Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
LQD ETF Plain-vanilla investment-grade corporate debt offers direct recourse to predominantly healthy issuers without… “My preference right now is still in the plain vanilla IG corporate.” |
LONG | new | Bloomberg TV (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Jim Cramer (CNBC) — Host, CNBC's Mad Money |
GLW Mining & Metals Earnings 1d ago Corning's strong quarter supports buying more shares despite the risk that Starlink reduces Verizon's and… “I'm a big believer in Corning. I'm going to buy it again.” |
LONG | new | CNBC (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Jim Cramer (CNBC) — Host, CNBC's Mad Money |
KO Beverages Earnings 1d ago Coca-Cola is a buy because Cramer regards it as one of the greatest long-term stock performers. “I would buy Coca-Cola” |
LONG | doubled down | CNBC (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Alex Altmann |
SPY ETF Crowded AI exposure has not yet undergone a cathartic unwind, leaving the index vulnerable to a correlated… “That sort of takes us down to 7250.” |
SHORT | new | Bloomberg TV (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Troy Gayeski |
BIL ETF Investors should hold more cash because equity supply has turned positive, the Fed is no longer adding… “You probably want more cash now than coming in the year.” |
LONG | new | Bloomberg TV (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Stefan Slowinski — Global head of software research, BNP Paribas Exane |
MSFT Software Microsoft offers visible AI monetization through accelerating Azure and Microsoft 365 growth while its… “With Microsoft, we know where the money is going to be coming from.” |
LONG | new | Bloomberg TV (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Jim Cramer (CNBC) — Host, CNBC's Mad Money |
GEV Electrical Eq. GE Vernova remains a buy because demand shows no letup or cancellations while its backlog is exceptionally… “The backlog is incredibly long. The pricing is very, very strong.” |
LONG | new | CNBC (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Jim Cramer (CNBC) — Host, CNBC's Mad Money |
HOOD Inv. Banking Earnings 1d ago Robinhood's quarter was unattractive because its business mix was heavily exposed to speculative crypto and… “I did not like this quarter.” |
SHORT | new | CNBC (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Mark Tepper — President & CEO, Strategic Wealth Partners |
LLY Pharma Earnings in 1d The obesity-treatment market remains vastly underpenetrated, and Eli Lilly's leading products should enable… “The market still has a ton of room to be penetrated.” |
LONG | new | Fox Business (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Daniel Newman — CEO, The Futurum Group |
MSFT Software Microsoft can rise further because strong Azure growth, expanding customer adoption of Copilot, and its… “I still think it can go higher.” |
LONG | new | Fox Business (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
| Taylor Riggs — Co-host, The Big Money Show, Fox Business |
ENPH Semis Earnings 1d ago Weak residential solar demand reflects a long-term affordability problem, while Enphase's data-center… “I'm not buying the dip… this is a long-term problem, not a short-term problem.” |
SHORT | new | Fox Business (uncut) 2026-10-28 |
The c8alpha take
BAND carried the clearest specific warning: unusually heavy, overwhelmingly put-led activity arrived just before earnings. A weak reaction with continued put demand would confirm that defensive read; a stable report and rapidly cooling volume would weaken it. FFIV was the more conflicted tape, with call-heavy long-dated activity appearing after an earnings-driven break on exceptional volume. Similar call-heavy surges and post-drop shapes have leaned weak lately, so the options interest alone is not yet evidence of a durable turn. Stabilization on lighter volume tomorrow would matter more than another burst of calls; renewed heavy selling would keep the break in control.
Written by our analyst model from tonight's computed facts only. Opinion, not advice.