Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.
Themes where at least 3 speakers landed on the same side in the last 14 days, with no more than one voice against. This is the week’s news — where agreement formed or hardened. A theme tagged standing 90d was already near-unanimous before this week, so the fresh voices are joining a crowded trade rather than starting one.
| Theme | Proxy | Direction | Speakers | Who & where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | GLD | LONG | 6 (1 dissenter) | Brent Johnson Santiago Capital (Brent Johnson), Jim Rickards (Julia La Roche Show), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Jonathan Wellum Rocklinc (Wealthion), Michael Howell (Macro Voices), Michael Howell Crossborder Capital (Michael Howell) |
| SPX | SPY | LONG | 5 (1 dissenter) | Cathie Wood (Cathie Wood), Darius Dale 42 Macro (Forward Guidance), Ed Yardeni (Wealthion), Jenny Harrington (Gilman Hill) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Tom Lee) |
| OIL standing 90d | USO | LONG | 4 | Art Berman (Wealthion), David Woo (Wealthion), Michael Howell (Macro Voices), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices) |
| ENERGY | XLE | LONG | 4 | Ben Thompson (Invest Like the Best), Joe Terranova (Virtus) (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Michael Batnick (The Compound), Michael Howell (Macro Voices) |
| INDUSTRIALS standing 90d | XLI | LONG | 4 | Courtney Garcia (Payne Capital) (Tom Lee), Ed Yardeni (Ed Yardeni), George Blue Cloud Trading (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Michael Howell (Macro Voices) |
| SILVER standing 90d | SLV | LONG | 3 | Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Jonathan Wellum Rocklinc (Wealthion), Michael Howell (Macro Voices) |
| COPPER | CPER | LONG | 3 | Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Jonathan Wellum Rocklinc (Wealthion), Steven Enders (Wealthion) |
Every name above has a receipt — the interview, the date, the quote. Those ride in The Brief, the daily edition.
Themes with ≥3 speakers on each side. The split itself is the signal — the fault line between camps often reveals more than the count does.
NVDA (NVDA) — 3 LONG vs 3 SHORT
LONG: Ankur Crawford Alger (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)), Joe Terranova (Virtus) (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Rob Sechan (NewEdge Wealth) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
SHORT: Ben Thompson (Invest Like the Best), Joachim Klement (Klement on Investing), Phil Town (Michael Burry)
The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.
Where the crowd already stands, measured over the full 90 days — not this week’s news. A theme tagged + new this week is still drawing fresh voices; the untagged ones have been settled for a while and added nobody in the last 14 days.
COMMODITIES_BROAD LONG (8 for, 1 against) · OIL LONG (7 for, 1 against) + new this week · SILVER LONG (7 for, 1 against) + new this week · META LONG (6 for, 1 against) · INDUSTRIALS LONG (7 for, 0 against) + new this week · GOOGL LONG (6 for, 1 against) · AMZN LONG (6 for, 0 against)
The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.
| Speaker | Theme | Was | Now | Held prior view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nouriel Roubini | USTS | SHORT (2022-12-16) | LONG (2026-06-01) | 1,263d |
| Cathie Wood | SPX | SHORT (2024-09-05) | LONG (2026-08-10) | 704d |
| Luke Gromen | SPX | LONG (2025-12-30) | SHORT (2026-08-03) | 216d |
| Ed Yardeni | BIG_TECH | SHORT (2026-01-02) | LONG (2026-07-24) | 203d |
| Bill Ackman | MSFT | SHORT (2025-11-29) | LONG (2026-06-03) | 186d |
| Bill Ackman | META | SHORT (2025-11-29) | LONG (2026-06-03) | 186d |
| Stephanie Link (Hightower) | META | LONG (2025-12-22) | SHORT (2026-06-25) | 185d |
| Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) | GOLD | LONG (2025-12-04) | SHORT (2026-06-04) | 182d |
Specific-ticker calls from canonical speakers with a positive 90d prior track record (mean signed return > 0 across n≥3 matured prior calls). The track-record column is the speaker’s prior hit rate — the credibility signal for featuring the call. Each pick below is fresh, so its own 90d result is still maturing (date shown). Not part of any consensus or divergence theme above.
| Ticker | Dir | Speaker | Speaker prior 90d | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | LONG | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | +15.1% · 79% hit · n=24 | result matures 2026-11-09 The AI-driven semiconductor demand cycle will be elongated by years; Micron trades at only 6x forward earnings with earnings growing rapidly, and the upcoming Chips Act anniversary removes restriction (CNBC Halftime Final Trades) |
| AAPL | SHORT | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | +15.1% · 79% hit · n=24 | result matures 2026-11-09 Agrees with Jefferies underperform thesis — margin pressure from soaring memory costs, years of undelivered Apple Intelligence promises, and a stretched 33x PE make the stock vulnerable; trimmed half (CNBC Halftime Final Trades) |
| RIG | LONG | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | +15.1% · 79% hit · n=24 | result matures 2026-11-09 Transocean is his top energy pick given ongoing geopolitical tension supporting energy sector strength (CNBC Halftime Final Trades) |
| TSLA | LONG | Cathie Wood | +7.8% · 54% hit · n=39 | result matures 2026-11-08 Tesla's robotaxi platform will account for 90% of its value in five years, and even halving ARK's robo-taxi roll-out assumptions still produces a compelling compound annual return from current levels. (Cathie Wood) |
| ZM | LONG | Joe Terranova (Virtus) | +0.4% · 47% hit · n=32 | result matures 2026-11-09 Zoom's partnership with Anthropic makes its upward momentum trustworthy unlike the broader software rally, and positions it advantageously ahead of expected AI-era IPOs from Anthropic, Databricks, and (CNBC Halftime Final Trades) |
Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.
| Type | Structure | Speaker | Horizon | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASKET | LONG DELL / LONG HPE / LONG ANET / LONG MRVL / LONG AVGO / LONG GEV / LONG ETN / LONG VRT / LONG MU / LONG AMD | Josh Brown (Ritholtz) | weeks | Nvidia's guidance on 2027-2028 AI capex on the earnings call will move hundreds of AI infrastructure stocks regardless of NVDA's own muted price reaction, because Jensen Wang functions as the de-facto (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| BASKET | LONG DELL / LONG AAPL | Joachim Klement | multi-year | As SLMs shift AI compute from cloud data centers to local endpoint devices, desktop PC manufacturers—not hyperscalers or GPU makers—become the true AI capex beneficiaries (Klement on Investing) |
| BASKET | LONG DEFENSE (ITA) / LONG RHM | David Woo | months | US deputy defense secretary ordering contractors to ramp ammunition production signals a sustained increase in US government defense spending, while Russian ground offensive gains accelerate European (Wealthion) |
| PAIR | LONG RAFI / SHORT IWF | Rob Arnott Research Affiliates | multi-year | Cap-weighted 'growth' indexes conflate expensiveness with growth; owning the 20% of the market actually expanding fastest, weighted by dollar magnitude of that economic growth rather than price multip (Rob Arnott) |
| PAIR | LONG AI HARDWARE AND NETWORKING / SHORT IT SERVICES AND ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE | Ankur Crawford Alger | multi-year | AI shifts the $6T IT spending pie away from software and IT services (whose moat of high creation cost is eroding to near-zero) toward hardware and networking which are the true scarcity driving the i (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) |
| BASKET | LONG AEM / LONG WPM / LONG FNV | Jonathan Wellum Rocklinc | multi-year | Gold mining equities are priced as if gold trades in the mid-$3,000s while gold is at ~$4,300 and margins exceed $3,000/oz, leaving enormous free-cash-flow expansion unrecognized by the market (Wealthion) |
| SPREAD | LONG GOLD calls (GLD) / SHORT GOLD calls (GLD) | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) | months | Gold is at a tactical inflection point after its correction and will recover toward the April high near GLD $450 over the next two months; the steep right-tail call skew makes a bull call spread more (Macro Voices) |
| PAIR | LONG GOLD (GLD) / SHORT LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) | Darius Dale 42 Macro | multi-year | Treasury supply-demand imbalance, rising neutral rate above real Fed funds rate, and dollar debasement risk put 10Y fair value at 5.8% (vs current ~4.4%), making long-duration bonds overpriced while g (Forward Guidance) |
| PAIR | LONG EUROPEAN_EQUITIES (VGK) / NEUTRAL SPX (SPY) | Scott Galloway | multi-year | Rotate from overvalued, over-concentrated US equities (Shiller CAPE at 41 — second highest in 140 years, 10 stocks = 40% of S&P) into European index funds trading at roughly half the US valuation mult (Prof G Pod (Galloway)) |
| PAIR | SHORT SMH / LONG IGV | Anastasia Amoroso | months | Semiconductor chip bottlenecks will eventually resolve, compressing average selling prices and pressuring chip stocks, while the ultimate beneficiaries will be software stocks which already post ~22% (CNBC Halftime Final Trades) |
Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.
| Speaker | n₉₀ | Hit | Mean 90d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) | 3 | 67% | +20.4% |
| Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) | 24 | 79% | +15.1% |
| Rob Arnott | 5 | 80% | +13.5% |
| Grant Williams | 10 | 40% | +13.1% |
| David Einhorn | 15 | 93% | +10.0% |
| Louis Vincent Gave Gavekal Research | 4 | 50% | +9.8% |
| Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) | 4 | 75% | +9.5% |
| Cathie Wood | 39 | 54% | +7.8% |
| John Burbank | 5 | 40% | +7.5% |
| Bill Nygren | 52 | 71% | +7.2% |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | 25 | 52% | +7.0% |
| Seth Klarman | 14 | 71% | +5.8% |
| David Rubenstein | 3 | 67% | +5.6% |
| Paul Tudor Jones | 41 | 73% | +5.5% |
| Patrick Boyle | 19 | 53% | +5.5% |
From the daily brief, session 2026-08-20. The paid edition carries the full feed every market morning — this is one row of it.
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