The Brief — edition, Tuesday, September 29 2026
session 2026-09-29 · 657 liquid names scanned · insight, not advice
One idea OBSERVATION
The single most interesting thing in what investors said publicly this quarter — not a recommendation, and not a prediction.
Thirty voices are bearish on Treasuries. Not one of them is short.
Cameron Dawson, Chris Casey, Chris Whalen, Dan Suzuki, Greg Peters, Harley Bassman, Inigo Fraser-Jenkins and Jeff Sherman are among 30 people on record bearish on U.S. Treasuries in the past 90 days. Zero of the 30 actually hold the position. The bearish call on Treasuries is entirely verbal — no one behind it has put capital against the trade.
Counted from the corpus: 30 people are bearish on USTS; 0 of them actually hold the position.
What changed in the themes OBSERVATION
Each desk theme against the prior edition (2026-09-28): movers versus the base rate, 8-K filings into the theme, and new dated views. Changed themes first.
Defense & drones changed
2 up, 7 down of 18 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (-11 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: AXON -26.5%, RCAT -24.9%, CLS +23.4%, USAR -20.5%
Energy (oil & gas) changed
1 up, 5 down of 19 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (-13 pts vs last edition); 2 8-Ks filed into the theme: SOC, DK; 1 new dated view (1 bullish): Arnold Van Den Berg
Biggest 20-session moves: NUAI +44.5%, SLB -17.3%, HAL -14.6%, EXE -14.4%
New dated views: Arnold Van Den Berg (bullish)
Power & the grid changed
2 up, 0 down of 7 names moved >10% in 20 sessions; 1 8-K filed into the theme: TE
Biggest 20-session moves: BE +42.8%, FPS +20.9%, OKLO -8.1%, ETN +7.7%
Space changed
1 up, 3 down of 13 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (-19 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: PL -17.8%, SATL +16.1%, KTOS -15.6%, LHX -11.5%
AI & data centers unchanged
17 up, 1 down of 39 names moved >10% in 20 sessions
Biggest 20-session moves: INTC +30.3%, META +29.9%, AMD +29.7%, MRVL +25.2%
Nuclear & uranium unchanged
0 up, 6 down of 12 names moved >10% in 20 sessions
Biggest 20-session moves: UUUU -25.5%, UEC -24.1%, SMR -15.5%, NXE -13.2%
Robotics & autonomy unchanged
2 up, 1 down of 11 names moved >10% in 20 sessions
Biggest 20-session moves: OUST +17.1%, TER +15.5%, MBLY -11.4%, ISRG +9.2%
Has this worked? OBSERVATION
Every convergence we have ever flagged, priced from the next session’s open and measured against SPY over the same window — 291 of them at 60 sessions.
Average +0.74% vs SPY, but the median was 0.00% — the typical convergence matched the market exactly, and 43% beat it. The average is carried by a small number of large winners, not by being right consistently.
Build your own combination → How many voices, how many of them run money, whether anyone is actually positioned, macro or single names, and how long a hold.
Your book OBSERVATION
| Name | Price | 5d | IV (own-yr pctile) | Δ$ vs norm | Calls | Sell-put signals* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL Software | $341.2 | -3.01% | IV 31.2 (35p) | Δ$ 0.8× | calls 68.4% | high vol |
| GLD ETF | $382.89 | -4.29% | IV 22.0 (21p) | Δ$ 0.7× | calls 68.0% | not today |
| SLV ETF | $55.48 | -8.64% | IV 35.6 (5p) | Δ$ 0.6× | calls 68.8% | high vol + post-drop |
*The three validated put-selling signals — explained in the next section.
Rich premium today VALIDATED
What this means: if any of these is a stock you'd own at the right price,
today is a well-paid day to sell its put. We check three conditions, each
independently validated on ten years of real option quotes — every one, on its
own, earned put sellers more per trade than selling on a random day:
high vol — the options are expensive in absolute terms (IV ≥ 30)
top of its year — premium in the top quarter of that name's own trailing year
post-drop — the stock fell 5%+ this week; protection is being bid
More conditions = a better day. Signal is from last night's close and typically
persists days, not hours — verify the live quote at the open. The example contract
is the shape our validation used: ~40 days out, ~20-delta, held to expiry,
assignment acceptable.
| Name | IV | Own-yr pctile | Why today | Example contract (last close) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Health Insurance | 44.0 | 90 | high vol, top of its year | Nov 6 $340p · $5.0 bid ≈ 1.47% / 38d |
| WFC Banks | 31.9 | 77 | high vol, top of its year | Nov 6 $74p · $0.9 bid ≈ 1.22% / 38d |
| IBM Tech Hardware | 34.8 | 59 | high vol, post-drop | Oct 30 $200p · $3.3 bid ≈ 1.65% / 31d |
| INTC Semis | 61.9 | 45 | high vol, post-drop — drop not yet priced into premium | Nov 6 $100p · $3.5 bid ≈ 3.5% / 38d |
| ORCL Software | 51.6 | 37 | high vol, post-drop — drop not yet priced into premium | Nov 6 $120p · $2.5 bid ≈ 2.08% / 38d |
| TSLA Autos | 40.3 | 16 | high vol, post-drop — drop not yet priced into premium | Oct 30 $320p · $5.45 bid ≈ 1.7% / 31d |
The board OBSERVATION
What changed on the Idea Scout board since the last edition — new mentions from tracked speakers, flips against their own prior stance, and doubled-down repeats. Who said what, on the record — not who is right.
9 of today's 12 stances are from one conversation (The Acquirers Podcast, Sep 30).
2 of today's 4 voices are from one conversation (Bloomberg The Close, Sep 29).
| Speaker | Idea | Call | Change | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
QSR Restaurants Burger King North America is now same-store-sales positive after years of being the problem child under… “There's a lot to like with that story” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
MSGS Entertainment MSG Sports' $10B enterprise value lets you buy the Knicks and Rangers combined at a deep discount to recent… “It makes absolutely no sense that you can buy both the Knicks and the Rangers for $10 billion” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
BATRK Atlanta Braves Holdings trades at ~$50 but applying the same valuation metrics as the recent Angels sale… “BATRK, which is the symbol for Atlanta Braves Holdings, which is a $50 stock, it would be an $88 stock” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
UBER Digital Services Uber trades at a below-market multiple despite 20-30% annual growth and ~$10B of projected free cash flow… “You're paying a below market multiple for a company that's growing 20 to 30% a year” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
MKL Insurance Markel trades at only 1.2x book with a new underwriting head driving improving combined ratios, Janna… “If you can buy an insurance company that is profitable at 1.2 times book and is going to be able to grow premiums, I think you'll do fine” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
CRM Software Salesforce was caught in the SaaS derating cycle and fell to a price that was finally cheap enough to own… “It was a name that we've always wanted to own. It was always too expensive and then it got down pretty cheap” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
BKNG Transport Booking's competitive moat in boutique/small hotel inventory is not replicable by AI agents like Muse, which… “Booking is competitively advantaged and it would be very difficult for someone to replicate what they've done” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
ABNB Digital Services Airbnb's supply-side moat — millions of individual homeowners — cannot be replicated by AI agents, making the… “AI is a beneficiary of these companies” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Jonathan Boyar — President, Boyar Value Group |
POOL Retail Pool Corp has de-rated from 55x to 15-16x earnings as the market extrapolates near-term weakness in pool… “At 55 times earnings, that's ridiculous. Everything has a price” |
LONG | new | The Acquirers Podcast 2026-09-30 |
| Arnold Van Den Berg — Founder & CEO, Century Management |
XLE ETF Energy stocks are as cheap as at the 1974 market bottom, oil has completed an 8-year bear market cycle… “Stocks, believe it or not, in the energy section are selling as cheap as when I started Century Management in '74” |
LONG | new | MOI Global 2026-09-29 |
| Tim Adams — President & CEO, Institute of International Finance |
TLT ETF US debt trajectory rising from 100% to 125% of GDP by 2035 with interest expense already exceeding defense… “rates go up and they will go up certainly real rates and you price out autos and housing” |
SHORT | new | Bloomberg The Close 2026-09-29 |
| Dev Ittycheria — Interim president & CEO, MongoDB |
MDB Software Agentic AI workloads structurally require fresh live data from operational data stores and elastic platforms… “agents need access to fresh live data. That fresh live data stays in an operational data store like MongoDB” |
LONG | new | Bloomberg The Close 2026-09-29 |
The c8alpha take
The loudest single-name event today is QURE — a pharma name marked down sharply in one session on nearly eight-times normal volume, with LEAPS flow elevated for a second day, suggesting the market is still actively repositioning. KMX is the quieter signal: options volume ran seven times normal with heavy LEAPS accumulation in an auto name, elevated for two sessions running. The theme tape is splitting — AI datacenter names have sustained a strong twenty-session run while defense, space, and nuclear are all eroding, nuclear posting no upside movers at all this month. Both MU and JBL report tomorrow into elevated implied vol, a live test of the semi momentum. The Treasury bear trade remains entirely verbal: over thirty voices on record bearish on Treasuries, none of them positioned against it — that kind of consensus tends not to sit still for long.
Written by our analyst model from tonight's computed facts only. Opinion, not advice.