Stocks / ETF
TLTETF
FollowFollowingUnfollowiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$81.611d -0.3%5d -0.1%settled close · 2026-11-02
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Mkt cap $41B (11/2)β 0.2552w $77–87Shares 502.0MNasdaq since 2002
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Who’s talking about TLT
149 long10 neutral303 shortlatest 2026-10-27
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Mike WilsonChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | The 10-year yield has reached and reacted from his 5.35% target, signaling rates have peaked at the back end… |
| 2026-10-27 | Evan Brown | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | With the 10-year at 5%, the return profile is asymmetric — a 100bp rise leaves total return roughly flat… |
| 2026-10-27 | Mike WilsonChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Real yields at 2–3% — the best in 20 years — combined with slowing growth concerns justify owning duration as… |
| 2026-10-27 | Drew Mattis | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | The 10-year yield spike to 5.2% was a self-reinforcing feedback loop between rate-hike expectations and… |
| 2026-10-26 | Valal Little | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | 10-year yield at 5% is a psychological threshold that has historically marked compelling entry points, and… |
| 2026-10-26 | Neil Datta | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Fed will skip October but hike in December and likely more beyond, as inflation remains persistently above… |
| 2026-10-26 | Unknown | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Bond market is in a counter-trend bounce with yields heading lower near-term toward ~4.85% (TLT ~84.5) before… |
| 2026-10-26 | Jeff Seeker | Bearish | Fox Business (uncut) | Fed chair Walsh will raise rates at the December meeting, where futures have flipped to 90% odds of a hike as… |
| 2026-10-24 | Robert Mullen | Bullish | The Market Huddle | TLT calls carried as cheap convexity in a long-vol budget book; long-duration Treasuries provide… |
| 2026-10-23 | Bob DiamondCEO, Atlas Merchant Capital; chairman, Hyperliquid Strategies | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Tariffs, shrinking labor supply from immigration tightening, and elevated energy prices are structural… |
Show all 462 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | A structural shift from the 2010-2020 savings glut to a savings shortage — driven by simultaneous demand for… |
| 2026-10-23 | Nadia LovellHead of global equity strategy, UBS Global Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | 5% on government bonds and near-6% on investment-grade corporates represents generational income value; with… |
| 2026-10-23 | Chris VerroneChief market strategist, Baird Strategas | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Rates have likely peaked for the year because inflation is structural — supply chain dislocations plus… |
| 2026-10-23 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | CBO projects rising debt-to-GDP indefinitely, ~$10T in treasuries mature in the next 12 months, and… |
| 2026-10-23 | Courtney Garcia (Payne Capital)Senior Wealth Advisor, Payne Capital | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Rates remain high and most hikes may already be priced in, making current levels an attractive entry point… |
| 2026-10-23 | Jean Boivin | Bullish | Liz Ann Sonders (newest) | Reversed a 6-year bearish stance because 10-year yields at 5%+ are approaching fair value, AI buildout… |
| 2026-10-23 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Rates have completed a 40-year falling cycle and history suggests we are entering a new multi-decade rising… |
| 2026-10-23 | Joe WeisenthalCo-host, Odd Lots; Bloomberg | Bearish | Whitney Tilson (newest) | An AI-driven capital investment supercycle sustains an inflationary impulse that keeps the Fed in rate-hiking… |
| 2026-10-23 | George NobleFormer Fidelity & hedge fund manager | Bearish | Monetary Matters | Unsustainable fiscal deficits meeting a global capex boom drive term premium and real rates structurally… |
| 2026-10-23 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | RiskReversal Media | The 40-year bond bull market is over, yields remain in a structural uptrend, and higher interest rates are… |
| 2026-10-23 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK | Liquidity cycle downswing will slow nominal GDP growth into 2027, making bond yields generous relative to the… |
| 2026-10-22 | Stephanie Pomboy | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | A record speculative short position could fuel a sharp but temporary short-covering rally in long-term… |
| 2026-10-22 | Unknown | Bearish | Fox Business (uncut) | Growing fiscal deficits, including higher countercyclical spending during economic weakness, will keep upward… |
| 2026-10-22 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Neutral | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | TLT's ~15-year duration creates excessive price sensitivity to rate moves, making long-term Treasuries too… |
| 2026-10-22 | Steve GrassoCEO, Grasso Global | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | 10-year yield spiked to 5.30% with everyone crowded on one side; growth scare reducing AI debt issuance… |
| 2026-10-22 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | AI concentration risk is overwhelming portfolios and in a sell-off there are very few places to hide, making… |
| 2026-10-22 | Mike MurphyFounder and Managing Partner, Rosecliff | Bearish | Fox Business (uncut) | Structural bond demand destruction — mortgage refinancing has stalled at 7.2–7.3% rates and buyers are… |
| 2026-10-22 | David Bonson | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | Nominal GDP growth is insufficient to sustain a 5.3% 10-year yield, driving yields back toward 4.5% as the… |
| 2026-10-22 | John Lonski | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | 5% on the 10-year offers meaningful risk-free return with little downside compared to volatile AI-related… |
| 2026-10-22 | Unknown | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | With the 10-year near 5%, Treasuries have regained value as a safe-haven cushion and equity hedge, supported… |
| 2026-10-22 | Guy Adami (RiskReversal)Trader & CNBC Fast Money panelist | Bullish | RiskReversal Media | The 10-year yield reversed sharply from 5.32% as equity market unrest drives a flight to quality into bonds… |
| 2026-10-22 | Liz Thomas (SoFi)Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi | Bullish | RiskReversal Media | Yields near 5.25% became attractive enough to pull capital out of equities, prompting a new bond allocation… |
| 2026-10-22 | Torsten SlokChief Economist, Apollo Global | Bearish | Torsten Slok (newest) | Taylor rule implies the Fed should already be hiking; current pause creates catch-up risk with rates moving… |
| 2026-10-22 | Gabriela SantosChief market strategist for the Americas, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Equity earnings are outpacing actual economic growth, meaning the Fed and economic strength have been… |
| 2026-10-21 | Peter SchiffCEO & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital | Bearish | Kitco NEWS | A secular 20-year bear market in bonds began 6 years ago and rates will rise faster than they fell, driving… |
| 2026-10-21 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bearish | Larry Fink (newest) | Competition for capital from federal deficits plus $7–9T hyperscaler AI capex demand is crowding out buyers… |
| 2026-10-21 | Mark Cabana | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Inflation is broadening across CPI, PPI, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast with PCE core expected to rise to… |
| 2026-10-21 | Dave | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | TLT has bounced cleanly off its lows and the 10-year yield is expected to pull back toward 4.85%, creating… |
| 2026-10-21 | Tom HayesFounder & chairman, Great Hill Capital | Bullish | Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) | Pension managers rationally prefer locking in 5%+ guaranteed yields for 10 years over an S&P earnings yield… |
| 2026-10-20 | Katerina SimonettiSVP, Senior Portfolio Manager, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | 10-year yields at 5.10% represent a multi-decade high not seen since the late 1990s–early 2000s, creating a… |
| 2026-10-20 | Max PetnerChief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | 10-year yields are more likely to move lower from current levels because higher rates have already fully… |
| 2026-10-20 | Kevin Mon | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | Bond market consensus forecasts imply 10- and 30-year yields are currently too high and will pull back by… |
| 2026-10-20 | Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Federal Reserve tightening and structurally higher long-term interest rates create a headwind for… |
| 2026-10-20 | Jeanne SunHead of portfolio advisory, Citi Wealth (CIO office) | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Persistent inflation combined with strong U.S. growth keeps sustained upward pressure on yields, making… |
| 2026-10-19 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | The Economist 'will bonds blow up' cover is a contrarian sentiment signal suggesting the near-term rate spike… |
| 2026-10-19 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Bitcoin Magazine | Bearish yield-curve flattening historically precedes strong bond markets as the economic strength that caused… |
| 2026-10-19 | Jim GrantEditor, Grant's Interest Rate Observer | Bearish | Jim Grant (newest) | The 40-year secular bull market in bonds has definitively ended, with 10-year yields up tenfold marking the… |
| 2026-10-19 | Keith McculloughCEO & Founder, Hedgeye Risk Management | Short | Danielle DiMartino Booth (newest) | Fed continues hiking into a slowing economy, pushing long-duration Treasury yields higher and bond prices… |
| 2026-10-19 | Michael Kantrowitz | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Strong economy and stable labor market leave no sustained catalyst for yields to fall materially, and any… |
| 2026-10-18 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Monetary Matters | Yields across the full 7–30 year curve now sit at 5%+, finally matching fair value given 5–6% nominal GDP… |
| 2026-10-17 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Jim Bianco (newest) | With nominal GDP running ~5% (real growth + inflation), interest rates are now at the appropriate level after… |
| 2026-10-17 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | The One Percent | AI-related corporate issuance up 50% since 2022 is crowding a global debt market already saturated with… |
| 2026-10-17 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Crowded Market Report | US NIIP at −85% of GDP and true interest expense at 105% of receipts means the Fed loses the long end whether… |
| 2026-10-17 | Jason Shapiro | Bearish | Luke Gromen | The cohort of traders who consistently get it wrong is crowding into TLT while the bond market has been… |
| 2026-10-16 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bullish | Wealthion | A $300B consumer punch from oil and rates surge, combined with banking system stress from commercial real… |
| 2026-10-16 | Andrew BorsaCIO, Global Fixed Income, PIMCO | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | AI sector uncertainty is driving equity-to-fixed-income rotation, and 10yr/30yr yields offer good value with… |
| 2026-10-16 | Jonathan KrinskiChief Market Technician, BTIG | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Hot CPI and PPI failed to push yields higher (news failure); the 30-year/NASDAQ correlation has flipped… |
| 2026-10-16 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | The Modern Market Show | Bonds have returned only ~6–6.5% annualized while global debt compounds at ~8%, meaning long-duration bond… |
| 2026-10-15 | Jon HirtleFounder & Executive Chairman, Hirtle & Co. | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | A ~3% real yield on the 10-year Treasury (at ~5.3% nominal) is a compelling standalone investment that also… |
| 2026-10-15 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | Consumer stress from diesel/jet fuel costs and rising financing expenses is doing the Fed's work for it… |
| 2026-10-15 | Mike SantoliSenior markets commentator, CNBC | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | 10-year yields at 5.30 found buyers at a technical ceiling well above expected inflation and Fed funds… |
| 2026-10-15 | Eric JohnsonChief Market Strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Treasury yields have hit a ceiling because inflation break-evens are contained at 5.35% over 5 years, the… |
| 2026-10-15 | Guy Adami (RiskReversal)Trader & CNBC Fast Money panelist | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Outside reversal on historic bond volatility signals a short-term flight-to-quality bid that can sustain a… |
| 2026-10-15 | Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Rates have risen ~500bps from lows creating genuine fixed income yields for the first time in years, making… |
| 2026-10-15 | Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices)Co-host, MacroVoices & Market Huddle | Bullish | Macro Voices (feed) | A 25bp intraday yield reversal following hot CPI, a SOFR double-bottom signaling rate-hike expectations being… |
| 2026-10-15 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jimmy Connor | Weakening economy and labor market will force the Fed to cut rates in 2027 (not hike as markets expect)… |
| 2026-10-15 | Jim PaulsenIndependent strategist, Paulsen Perspectives | Bullish | Excess Returns (feed) | Slowing growth and falling inflation will force the Fed to ease, pushing bond yields meaningfully lower and… |
| 2026-10-15 | Tom HayesFounder & chairman, Great Hill Capital | Bullish | Hedge Fund Tips (Tom Hayes) | Half a trillion dollars of AI-hyperscaler bond issuance predicated on OpenAI/Anthropic growth rates that are… |
| 2026-10-15 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | AI capex 'reverse crowding out' — excess corporate bonds from CoreWeave and Neo Clouds — has been the primary… |
| 2026-10-14 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Jim Bianco (newest) | 5-year to 30-year yields all carry a 5-handle, which fairly reflects ~5% nominal GDP (~3% inflation + ~2%… |
| 2026-10-14 | Kate MooreCIO, Citi Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Macro economy is stronger than consensus assumed so real yields must reflect that strength, and bonds have… |
| 2026-10-14 | Emily RonanCo-Chief Investment Strategist, Manulife John Hancock Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | The current fiscal stimulus injected into an already-hot economy mirrors the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sugar… |
| 2026-10-14 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Inflation is structurally stuck near 3% and cannot return to 2% because the China-WTO goods deflation… |
| 2026-10-14 | Emily RolandCo-chief investment strategist, Manulife John Hancock Investments | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | The current backup in bond yields mirrors the 2017-18 fiscal stimulus cycle that ended with Fed cuts by 2019… |
| 2026-10-14 | Kate MooreCIO, Citi Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Bonds no longer function as uncorrelated safe-haven assets — they failed to rally during the US-Iran… |
| 2026-10-14 | Jeffrey ShermanDeputy CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | Structural financing needs and the bond market asserting control keep long-end challenges persistent, making… |
| 2026-10-14 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | David Rosenberg (newest) | Nominal and real yields are attractive at current levels while leading inflation signals — decelerating… |
| 2026-10-14 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | David Rosenberg (newest) | Goods inflation has structurally shifted from deflationary (−0.5% under WTO globalization pre-2020) to nearly… |
| 2026-10-14 | Robert SockinChief U.S. economist, PGIM | Bearish | Jim Bianco (newest) | Broad-based sticky inflation, above-trend growth, and a stable labor market justify more Fed rate hikes than… |
| 2026-10-14 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Nicholas Thompson and Principles by Ray Dalio | US government runs a structural 40% overspend deficit requiring ~$10T in annual debt rollovers plus new… |
| 2026-10-14 | Mario InneccoHost, Maneco64 | Bearish | Kitco NEWS | A secular bear market in bonds is underway with yields breaking out of a three-year consolidation toward 6%+… |
| 2026-10-13 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | StreetPulse Markets | AI infrastructure buildout at 3.6% of GDP competes with sovereign issuance in an already-crowded global debt… |
| 2026-10-13 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Paul Tudor Jones (newest) | AI hyperscaler corporate bond issuance is up 50% since 2022, crowding a global fixed income market already… |
| 2026-10-13 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | maneco64 | True interest expense (gross interest plus Medicare/Medicaid/VA) is already 105% of US federal receipts in a… |
| 2026-10-13 | Rick RuleFormer CEO, Sprott US Holdings | Bearish | Jeffrey Gundlach | The Fed can hold the short end but is losing control of the 10-, 20-, and 30-year as bond vigilantes return… |
| 2026-10-13 | Jeffrey ShermanDeputy CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Inflation premium and term premium are inadequate at the long end given structural inflation above 3%, a… |
| 2026-10-13 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | The 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022 and yields are now in a structural uptrend, so multi-year… |
| 2026-10-13 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | BTC Sessions | US Treasury term premia are beginning to compress from a position of structural stability while the yield… |
| 2026-10-12 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bullish | Hidden Forces | US nominal GDP is running at ~5-5.5% (roughly 2.5% real growth plus 3% inflation), and for the first time in… |
| 2026-10-11 | Mike PrestonPartner, New Harbor Financial | Bullish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | Down over 50% from peak while now yielding 5%+; short-side sentiment is overwhelmingly crowded and one-sided… |
| 2026-10-10 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | The unacknowledged federal deficit is the single largest structural force driving long-term yields higher… |
| 2026-10-10 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jimmy Connor | Economy will slow and force the Fed to cut rates next year rather than hike, surprising a market where net… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jeanne SunHead of portfolio advisory, Citi Wealth (CIO office) | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Rate volatility has increased positive correlation between fixed income and equities, making bonds an… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jeremy SiegelProfessor emeritus, Wharton | Bullish | Jeremy Siegel (newest) | Real rates at levels not seen in 25 years make bonds attractive as a portfolio hedge given the wide range of… |
| 2026-10-09 | Andrew SarnaPortfolio Manager, Forthlane Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Structurally unsustainable US debt-to-GDP and the fiscal dominance regime make bonds untenable as a long-term… |
| 2026-10-08 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Wealth Building Blueprint – Vladyslav Grabarskyy | Asset allocation sequencing from the liquidity cycle framework calls for rotating into bonds as the cycle… |
| 2026-10-07 | Alicia LevineHead of investment strategy & equities, BNY Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Nominal GDP growth at 6.3% combined with AI-driven competition for capital creates structural upward pressure… |
| 2026-10-07 | Danielle | Bearish | Fox Making Money (playlist) | Structural forces — runaway fiscal deficits, higher oil prices forcing foreign central banks to liquidate… |
| 2026-10-07 | Unknown Panelist | Bearish | Fox Markets (playlist) | Structural oil supply constraints from declining rig counts and faster-than-expected depletion will keep… |
| 2026-10-06 | Barry RitholtzCo-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bearish | The Big Picture (Ritholtz) | Twelve compounding factors—oil-driven inflation, AI-capex boom, secular rate normalization back to historical… |
| 2026-10-06 | Jean Marie EveillardFormer manager, First Eagle Global Fund (ex-SoGen) | Bearish | MOI Global | A 31-year bond bull market driven by artificially suppressed rates near zero is plainly not in its second… |
| 2026-10-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bullish | Tom Lee | US 10-year at 5% is anomalous relative to France at 4.5-4.8% and appears driven by a momentum short rather… |
| 2026-10-05 | David KellyChief Global Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management | Bullish | Fox Claman Countdown | 10-year and 30-year yields have risen 100-140 bps YTD and are now attractive; the Fed is unlikely to raise… |
| 2026-10-04 | Andy ConstanFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors | Bullish | Excess Returns | Bond yields surged due to strong growth expectations and increased debt supply but have now overshot, making… |
| 2026-10-04 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bearish | Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance | Rates are structurally headed higher globally and US bond prices will continue falling, though the… |
| 2026-10-02 | Priya MisraPortfolio manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | The move from 4.85% to 5.30% on the 10-year is technically driven by negative convexity in mortgages and CTD… |
| 2026-10-02 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Historically the 10-year yield rises 100–200 bps through a rate-hike cycle, and starting at 5% implies a path… |
| 2026-10-02 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The 30-year yield is executing a multi-year technical breakout and the structural forces driving it higher —… |
| 2026-10-01 | Bill | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | PCE methodology shift (investment-advisor fees moved to PPI) is smoothing headline inflation, and near-term… |
| 2026-10-01 | Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISI | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Real yields at highest since 2008 and 10-year vs S&P 500 earnings yield at highest since 2002 make bonds… |
| 2026-10-01 | Mark ThorntonSenior Fellow, Mises Institute | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Structural break from the multi-decade rate downtrend driven by $2T annual deficits (6% of GDP) and… |
| 2026-10-01 | George Blue Cloud TradingHost, Blue Cloud Trading | Bearish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is in a sustained decline on both the weekly and daily Ichimoku charts… |
| 2026-09-30 | Liz | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Committee | Treasury yields are at multi-decade extremes (30yr highest since 2002, 10yr since 2007) and historically… |
| 2026-09-30 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Path of least resistance for long rates is higher; in the next recession the deficit hits 12% of GDP and… |
| 2026-09-29 | Tim AdamsPresident & CEO, Institute of International Finance | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | US debt trajectory rising from 100% to 125% of GDP by 2035 with interest expense already exceeding defense… |
| 2026-09-29 | Gabriela SantosChief market strategist for the Americas, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | The ~50bp surge in yields this month is overdone — inflation expectations barely moved, PMIs overstate US… |
| 2026-09-29 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | tastylive | A tidal wave of refinancing from 2021 zero-rate debt, persistent inflation, Japanese investors liquidating… |
| 2026-09-29 | Andy ConstanFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | The 40-year bond bubble peaked in Sept 2020 at 65bps and has fully deflated; real yields on the long end are… |
| 2026-09-28 | Bob MicheleCIO & head of global fixed income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Yields above 5% represent an oversold, blowoff-top condition while economic headwinds from higher rates… |
| 2026-09-28 | Grant WilliamsFinancial writer & podcast host | Bearish | Grant Williams Podcast | With purchasing power eroding at roughly 10% per year, locking capital for 30 years at ~5.5% is a guaranteed… |
| 2026-09-27 | Wall St MacroNarrated YouTube explainer channel (not an individual) | Bearish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | The 30-year yield rise is driven almost entirely by higher real yields and tighter-Fed expectations rather… |
| 2026-09-25 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Gold Silver Investing and Silver AI Wealth | With structural inflation heading toward double digits if Hormuz stays closed and the US needing Treasuries… |
| 2026-09-25 | Peter TchirHead of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Building out domestic energy infrastructure and supply chain reshoring is structurally inflationary, making… |
| 2026-09-25 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bullish | Crypto Insider and 2 more | CTA short positioning in US bonds is at the largest in history, creating kindling for a sharp reversal… |
| 2026-09-25 | Olaolu AgangaHead of portfolio construction, Citi Wealth | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Fed hiking path is intact with inflation still sticky, so duration exposure destroys value as rates rise —… |
| 2026-09-21 | Jeffrey ShermanDeputy CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | The long bond has broken to new cycle highs and Treasury Secretary yield-curve intervention is futile without… |
| 2026-09-18 | Rob Sechan (NewEdge Wealth)Co-founder & CEO, NewEdge Wealth | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Final Trades | Yields at current levels provide meaningful portfolio insulation for the first time in years, fears of losing… |
| 2026-09-17 | Julian EmanuelChief equity strategist, Evercore ISI | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Fed's credibility hike and global rate hiking cycle cap extreme yield scenarios and provide a value… |
| 2026-09-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Persistent inflation — PCE at 3.3%, import-export prices at 7.8%, CPI likely to print a 4-handle — means… |
| 2026-09-15 | Nimrit KangCIO, Northstar Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | 5% yields offer an attractive entry to add duration because break-even rates remain modest, meaning the yield… |
| 2026-09-15 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | CNBC Halftime Committee | 10-year Treasuries at 5% have historically preceded good forward returns (95% of prior instances), justifying… |
| 2026-09-15 | Priya MisraPortfolio manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Tightening financial conditions from rising real rates will eventually force markets to price in growth… |
| 2026-09-14 | Richard BernsteinGlobal Head of Macro & Customized Investing, Janus Henderson (founder, Richard Bernstein Advisors) | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Deglobalization structurally reduces competition and produces secular inflation rather than secular… |
| 2026-09-14 | Nate GeraciPresident, NovaDius Wealth Management | Bearish | Bloomberg ETF IQ | With inflation still running hot and Iran-conflict oil-price uncertainty keeping upward rate pressure alive… |
| 2026-09-13 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Luke Gromen | Five independent yield models (curve normalization, inflation expectations, term premium, real yield, nominal… |
| 2026-09-11 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | 10-year yield RSI is in overbought territory suggesting a tactical countertrend rally is likely even within a… |
| 2026-09-11 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Nominal GDP running at 6.6% implies regression-based fair value for the 10-year yield near 5.8%, well above… |
| 2026-09-11 | Ven RamCross-asset strategist, Bloomberg | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | The yield uptrend is structurally intact and durable, driven by persistent above-target inflation compounded… |
| 2026-09-11 | David WooIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA) | Bearish | Capital Allocators | AI hyperscalers are all running negative free cash flow and funding capex purely with debt, creating a ~$3T… |
| 2026-09-11 | Justin BergnerPortfolio manager, Gabelli Funds | Bullish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | While the long-term trend is for rising rates, the recent backup in long-end yields has moved too far too… |
| 2026-09-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | The 30-year Treasury at 5.24% has failed to retrace meaningfully after a ~500bp rate rise, indicating the… |
| 2026-09-09 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Wealthion | Passive bond index funds algorithmically underweight below-par bonds by weighting on market capitalization… |
| 2026-09-09 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Triangle Investor | Nominal GDP growth worldwide implies bond yields are approximately 100 basis points below fair value… |
| 2026-09-09 | Mike WilsonChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Long bonds have been a structural train wreck for five years and Wilson maintains an explicit… |
| 2026-09-08 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | Bond bearishness is at extreme historical levels with record crowded short positioning so the bad news is… |
| 2026-09-04 | Scott GrannisPublisher, Calafia Beach Pundit | Bullish | Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis) | Jobs growth is so weak that a Fed rate hike would threaten the economy, meaning the bond market is wrong to… |
| 2026-09-04 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | ARK Invest | Technology-driven deflation is suppressing long-end rates while accelerating real growth keeps short rates… |
| 2026-09-03 | Guy Adami (RiskReversal)Trader & CNBC Fast Money panelist | Bearish | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade | US debt at $40 trillion makes the interest cost unsustainable at current yields, bond vigilantes are winning… |
| 2026-09-02 | Bob HaberCIO & Partner, Proficio Capital Partners | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Fiscal dominance forces the Treasury to roll $12T/year in debt—a figure growing toward $15–16T—which will… |
| 2026-09-02 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | David Lin | Reset of Fed rate-hike expectations under new chair Worsh has driven the 10-year up 80bps from the February… |
| 2026-09-01 | Elizabeth BurtonChief strategist, Fortress Investment Group | Short | Bloomberg Open Interest | Structural fiscal deficits with no political will for reform until the mid-2030s Medicare/Medicaid crisis… |
| 2026-08-31 | Brandon ClarkSVP & Director of ETF Business, Federated Hermes | Bullish | A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson) | The 30-year Treasury breaking to yields not seen since 2007 creates an attractive entry point for extending… |
| 2026-08-29 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | Bessent's bond buyback strategy cannot sustainably suppress 10Y/30Y yields because the underlying… |
| 2026-08-29 | David FriedbergCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-In | Bearish | All-In Podcast | Bessent's yield-suppression buybacks are structurally insufficient — even if maxed at $1T, the Treasury must… |
| 2026-08-26 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Bonds offer highly asymmetric risk/reward at current yield levels — a 1% rate drop generates +12% return on… |
| 2026-08-25 | Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners | Bullish | Stanley Druckenmiller | Treasury Secretary Bessent's large intervention toolkit creates substantial short-squeeze risk for bond… |
| 2026-08-25 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Macro Voices | Structural supply/demand imbalance—US needs ~40% of global savings to fund rolling debt vs. a 23% historical… |
| 2026-08-25 | Bob DollCEO & CIO, Crossmark Global Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Fiscal deficits, excess bond supply from AI capex buildout, and global supply pressures mean market forces… |
| 2026-08-25 | Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners | Neutral | Stanley Druckenmiller | Treasury has a large toolkit to inflict pain on bond shorts, making a short position tactically dangerous… |
| 2026-08-24 | Nick ColasCo-Founder, DataTrek Research | Bearish | The Compound | Real yields (not inflation expectations, which have been flat) have broken out from ~2% to ~3%, flipping… |
| 2026-08-24 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Mario Nawfal | Reshoring is structurally inflationary while soft yield curve control (Treasury buybacks, TGA drawdown) caps… |
| 2026-08-22 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | 30-year Treasury yields are below the rate of inflation, offering negative real returns, while alternatives… |
| 2026-08-21 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Risk Takers | US nominal GDP growth is at its fastest pace since the early 1980s and bond yields must eventually converge… |
| 2026-08-21 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Capital shortage will drive real rates higher, deglobalization and money supply growth far above Friedman's… |
| 2026-08-21 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bearish | CNBC Television | New Fed chair's inability to articulate a credible path to 2% inflation embeds a risk premium into duration… |
| 2026-08-20 | Raoul PalCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM | Bearish | Tom Bilyeu | Owning long-duration government liabilities is inferior to owning the equity of innovating companies… |
| 2026-08-20 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Short | Macro Voices | Structurally declining global savings, AI capex competing for capital, a modestly accommodative Fed putting… |
| 2026-08-18 | Harry DentAuthor & forecaster, HS Dent | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | Long-duration Treasuries are the only proven safe haven in a deflationary crash — TLT rose 40% in the 2008… |
| 2026-08-18 | Tom HayesFounder & chairman, Great Hill Capital | Bullish | Fox Varney & Co | European fiscal stress (UK/German/French yields at decade highs due to energy war costs) will drive… |
| 2026-08-15 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance (~$673B in a single week), and AI-related financing are flooding the… |
| 2026-08-14 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Meb Faber Show | Fiscal dominance (120% debt-to-GDP, deficits growing faster than receipts) means real rates must eventually… |
| 2026-08-11 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bearish | Wealthion | If the Fed fails to raise rates and restore credibility on inflation, bond vigilantes will push long-end… |
| 2026-08-08 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | ARK Invest | Truflation's 1.5% core reading combined with weak payrolls means the Fed will not tighten, and the yield… |
| 2026-08-08 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Bullion Brief | Hamiltonian economics — reshoring, tariffs, persistent deficits financed by monetization — guarantees higher… |
| 2026-08-06 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Bearish | Wealthion | Divisia M4 money supply growing at 6.7% (above the 5-6% range consistent with 2% inflation target)… |
| 2026-08-05 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | tastylive | Heavy short-end government issuance absorbed by banks constitutes private-sector money creation, driving… |
| 2026-08-04 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | Taylor rule shows Fed is 300bps behind the curve with nominal GDP growing 7%+ and a $2T annual supply glut… |
| 2026-08-04 | Mickey MainiFounder, Solstice Laboratory | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Fed transmission efficacy is at a cycle low, rate moves increasingly trigger unintended bond-market… |
| 2026-08-03 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Patient foreign creditor base has been gone since 2014, replaced by leveraged hedge funds running the basis… |
| 2026-08-03 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | What Bitcoin Did | Hamiltonian economics (reshoring, tariffs, capital controls) is inherently inflationary and will destroy the… |
| 2026-08-01 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | The Bullion Brief | Cayman Islands hedge funds running leveraged basis trades have absorbed ~40% of net Treasury note/bond… |
| 2026-07-31 | David FriedbergCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-In | Bullish | All-In Podcast | 30-year Treasury yield at 5.2% (pre-tax equivalent ~10%) makes risk assets like semiconductor stocks at 50x… |
| 2026-07-31 | Andrew SarnaPortfolio Manager, Forthlane Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Implicit yield caps from deficit financing mechanics mean bonds can only be a tactical trade — the structural… |
| 2026-07-31 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The short rate is not the appropriate tightening lever here; real adjustment must come from letting long-term… |
| 2026-07-28 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | All three components of the Fisher equation—real rates rising from capital scarcity, inflation expectations… |
| 2026-07-28 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | GPIF repatriation forces selling of US Treasuries into a market that already has energy-driven inflation… |
| 2026-07-27 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | Warren Buffett School | Even if inflation returns to 2%, the 10-year should yield 4–4.5% (roughly where it sits), leaving no upside… |
| 2026-07-25 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | The Treasury's 6%-of-GDP fiscal deficit is running the economy structurally hot, making the Fed's 2%… |
| 2026-07-22 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | What Bitcoin Did | US nominal GDP is running at approximately 9-10%, implying 10-year Treasury yields are severely suppressed… |
| 2026-07-20 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost | Even under a benign 2% inflation scenario the 10-year is fairly valued around 4–4.5% — where it sits now —… |
| 2026-07-17 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | CNBC Television | 10-year Treasuries are near fair value even assuming 2% inflation (should be 4–4.5%), and structural US… |
| 2026-07-08 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Michael Green | Passive bond indices are mechanically ~35% underweight 10-year-plus duration bonds because falling prices… |
| 2026-07-06 | James Waller | Bearish | CNBC Television | AI productivity adoption is slowed by entrenched business culture, meaning productivity gains won't be… |
| 2026-07-02 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | ARK Invest | Trueflation's real-time reading of 1.75% headline inflation is less than half the official 4.2% CPI, and the… |
| 2026-06-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | WTFinance | US NGDP running at 6-7% implies risk-adjusted 10-year yields must rise to approximately 6%, well above… |
| 2026-06-26 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Peak inflation and peak growth are being traversed for the year, fiscal impulse wanes in H2, and the Fed is… |
| 2026-06-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Short | David Lin | Nominal GDP growth is running at 6-7% and historically the 10-year yield tracks nominal GDP; with embedded… |
| 2026-06-24 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Bullish | Wealthion | Contrarian position as consensus is short bonds, and Faber expects yields to fall over the next 6 months… |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Neutral | David Lin | Fiscal dominance means rising deficits offset any rate-tightening impact on inflation, making bonds an… |
| 2026-06-19 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Rosenberg Research | The AI CapEx boom mirrors every prior innovation mania — railways, electrification, fiber/dot-com — that… |
| 2026-06-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | Warsh's credible commitment to price stability removes the over-easing pressure that was driving long-term… |
| 2026-06-12 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | 30-year Treasury yields are at 20-year highs and structural fiscal pressures (Social Security insolvency by… |
| 2026-06-07 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | GoldRepublic Global | 5% yields bring in enough new buyers to prevent a disorderly collapse, but structural fiscal dominance and… |
| 2026-06-04 | Erik TownsendHost, MacroVoices podcast | Bearish | Macro Voices | Rising oil prices are reigniting inflation expectations and pushing yields higher, with the 10-year yield's… |
| 2026-06-03 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Nominal GDP growth running at 7-8% implies long-term treasury yields should converge much higher toward that… |
| 2026-06-03 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Chronic US fiscal deficits create excess bond supply that overwhelms demand, pushing long rates higher and… |
| 2026-06-02 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Nominal GDP running 7-8% p.a. is inconsistent with 10-year yields near 5%; if that spread compresses via… |
| 2026-06-01 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | SALT | Rising inflation pushes bond yields higher, collapsing long-duration bond prices — the classic 60/40… |
| 2026-05-29 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | DRM News | Cumulative inflationary pressures—remilitarization, AI capex, trade restructuring, immigration restrictions… |
| 2026-05-29 | Ed ElsonCo-host, The Prof G Pod | Bearish | Prof G Pod (Galloway) | Bond vigilantes cannot rein in war spending the way they stopped the tariff selloff—a war is irreversible… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bearish | Wealthion | The 30-year above 5% reflects stealth tightening and fiscal credibility concerns, and long-duration bonds… |
| 2026-05-24 | Taylor RiggsCo-host, The Big Money Show, Fox Business | Bearish | Fox Mornings with Maria | The 30-year real yield is at its highest since 2008 and the 10-year real rate jumped 25bps in a single week… |
| 2026-05-23 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Inflation concerns are the chief market worry as evidenced by 10-year above 4.5% and 30-year heading toward… |
| 2026-05-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising oil prices from Strait of Hormuz disruption are driving inflation higher, pushing sovereign yields up… |
| 2026-05-19 | George NobleFormer Fidelity & hedge fund manager | Short | Julia La Roche Show | Rising deficits, surging inflation from oil prices, and bond vigilantes awakening mean the Fed cannot… |
| 2026-05-18 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | The Fed is falling behind the curve with nominal GDP running ~10% annualized and trim-mean CPI… |
| 2026-05-12 | Jim CaronCIO, Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Mgmt | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Underweighting duration is a better hedge relative to equities in a multi-asset portfolio because inflation… |
| 2026-05-11 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | TorontoWealthGroup | New neutral Fed funds rate is 100bps below current levels, requiring 4-5 cuts over the coming year as… |
| 2026-05-07 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Long rates will continue rising even in a recession because fiscal concerns over surging interest expense… |
| 2026-05-06 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | iCapital | Large fiscal deficits combined with fiscal-dominance dynamics and backdoor activist Treasury issuance create… |
| 2026-04-24 | Steve LiesmanCNBC senior economics reporter | Bearish | CNBC Halftime Committee | The AI investment boom requires billions per week in capital, and basic economics dictates that surging… |
| 2026-04-18 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | With inflation remaining elevated due to supply-chain disruptions from the Iran conflict, T-bills offer… |
| 2026-04-17 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | Declining global liquidity raises systemic risk, which mechanically increases demand for safe-asset… |
| 2026-04-13 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | LifeWorthLiving | Inflation is structurally declining (unit labor costs rising only 1% annually, wage disinflation) and the… |
| 2026-04-10 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | ARK Invest | Middle East commodity pressures will ease as supply-side responds, and AI-driven productivity gains will… |
| 2026-04-09 | Ruchir SharmaChairman, Rockefeller International | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Record-high global government debt and deficits mean any additional crisis spending will unsettle bond… |
| 2026-04-08 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bullish | The Bitcoin Layer | As global liquidity tightens, investors flee to safety and bid down government bond term premiums, a… |
| 2026-04-07 | Kelsey BerroFixed income portfolio manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Rates market has over-priced Fed hike risk; if the oil VIX is correctly signaling a larger shock than other… |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Secular interest rate decline is over; unsustainable $2T annual deficits plus risk of soft default or coupon… |
| 2026-03-30 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | An inflation shock from the war combined with a 6% fiscal deficit and limited Fed flexibility removes the… |
| 2026-03-30 | Chris VerroneChief market strategist, Baird Strategas | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | 10-year yield at 440-450 has historically been a buying zone; equity weakness has been on the path to 450… |
| 2026-03-27 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Unsustainable deficits and exploding interest expense ($300B to $1.4T) will push long-term yields higher even… |
| 2026-03-27 | John BriggsHead of macro strategy, Natixis CIB Americas | Bearish | Zoltan Pozsar | AI capex is creating structurally elevated demand for capital while the Iran war is keeping petrodollar and… |
| 2026-03-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | War-driven safe-haven flows have propped up long-end bonds, but with inflation rising and Fed on hold… |
| 2026-03-12 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Macro Voices | Oil-driven inflation is pushing US CPI above 3%, which prevents the Fed from cutting rates; any dovish pivot… |
| 2026-03-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | interview | Foreign investors are mechanically forced to sell US Treasuries to raise dollars to finance energy imports as… |
| 2026-03-10 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Goldfinger Capital | Defense spending potentially rising $500B to $1.5T, oil-driven inflation, and a debt spiral already underway… |
| 2026-03-09 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | Oil shock compounds already-rising US inflation, pushing average 2025 CPI toward ~3%, limiting Fed… |
| 2026-03-04 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Bearish | Louis-Vincent Gave | Structural bear market in bonds persists because geopolitical conflict drives inflation and unproductive… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Fiscal deficits are structural, interest expense is already $1.2-1.3 trillion and rising, and the historical… |
| 2026-02-27 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | Oxbow Advisors | Disinflation is accelerating due to falling unit labor costs, weakening consumer purchasing power, and… |
| 2026-02-26 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | Investor Insight Channel | Tariff-driven Kindleberger spiral is creating endogenous liquidity destruction that will force the Fed into… |
| 2026-02-18 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Structurally higher real growth keeps the equilibrium real rate elevated (~3%), so long-duration bonds face… |
| 2026-02-16 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | Bankless | Five years of bond carnage have reduced the downside case enough that Alden has shifted from structurally… |
| 2026-02-11 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Wise Metals Investor | China is actively reducing Treasury exposure and recycling surpluses into gold rather than US financial… |
| 2026-01-30 | Russell NapierMarket strategist & financial historian | Bullish | Meb Faber | Under financial repression, institutional savings institutions that are currently underweight government debt… |
| 2026-01-22 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | Foreign sovereign investors (e.g., Dutch/Danish pension funds) are signaling intent to sell US Treasuries as… |
| 2026-01-21 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Deglobalization reduces foreign demand for US bonds while structural fiscal spending drives inflation, and a… |
| 2026-01-20 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital and 2 more | Unlike every prior cycle, long-end rates are rising even as the Fed cuts and as the economy softens, because… |
| 2026-01-08 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Neutral | Meb Faber | Bond sentiment is extremely negative (contrarian buy signal possible), but long-term bonds are fundamentally… |
| 2026-01-02 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bearish | CNBC Television | Bond yields could rise further as bond vigilantes push back against the stimulative combination of Fed easing… |
| 2025-12-30 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Short | Network State Podcast | BRICS central banks have stopped buying Treasuries on net while US deficits keep growing, removing the… |
| 2025-12-16 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Yahoo Finance | Massive public deficit (6% of GDP) plus surging private-sector debt issuance from data centers… |
| 2025-12-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | CNBC Television | Fed rate cuts are not lowering long-term rates — the 30-year Treasury is up ~75bps and the 10-year has also… |
| 2025-12-10 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | interview | Structural fiscal deficits ensure sustained money-supply growth that debases bond purchasing power, and… |
| 2025-12-10 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Fed rate cuts have paradoxically pushed long-end rates higher (30-year up ~75bp since cuts started), and a… |
| 2025-12-08 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bearish | CNBC Television | The bond market is not convinced inflation is defeated and is signaling concern over the ballooning US… |
| 2025-12-08 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Bond vigilantes will keep long yields elevated or push them higher as fiscal excess (Big Beautiful Bill tax… |
| 2025-11-21 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | interview | Fed rate cuts have failed to rally long bonds for the first time in modern history because surging Treasury… |
| 2025-11-03 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Bankless | Structural fiscal dominance means the Fed cannot raise rates enough to defend the dollar without blowing up… |
| 2025-10-23 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bearish | Wealthion | Unsustainable global sovereign debt issuance with no credible path to reduction means the long end of the… |
| 2025-10-22 | David HayFormer CIO, Evergreen Gavekal | Bearish | Lacy Hunt | Parallels to the 1970s suggest bond rallies will be temporary and driven by premature Fed easing under… |
| 2025-10-14 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Short | Bloomberg Podcasts | 6% US budget deficits, a White House pushing for a dovish Fed chair to cut rates to 2.25-2.5%, and eventual… |
| 2025-10-10 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Sovereign risk is finally being priced into long-term US bonds as the $37.4T debt with $2T annual deficits… |
| 2025-09-26 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Tactical long initiated because (1) the letter campaign defending Lisa Cook makes a Fed-independence… |
| 2025-09-25 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | Natalie Brunell | Fiscal dominance and structurally wide deficits mean inflation is unlikely to return to generational lows, so… |
| 2025-09-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | DoubleLine Capital | The long bond faces headwinds from an out-of-control fiscal deficit, risk of a dovish Fed replacement under… |
| 2025-09-09 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | interview | In fiscal dominance, bonds lose purchasing power because the Fed's rate tools are counterproductive — raising… |
| 2025-09-09 | Larry LepardManaging Partner, EMA2 | Bearish | Wealthion | Long-duration bonds offer yields well below true inflation rates, and if the bond market sells off materially… |
| 2025-09-03 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Wealthion | Long-dated Treasuries are a cash-management tool, not a long-term investment — massive Treasury issuance ($2T… |
| 2025-08-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | Adam Taggart | Tariff-driven Kindleberger spiral is creating multiple endogenous shocks to liquidity that are deflationary… |
| 2025-08-18 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Fed rate cuts into a 3%-inflation, strong-economy environment are the wrong policy, and the market will push… |
| 2025-08-12 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bearish | Wealthion | The monthly 10-year yield chart has put in a multi-decade base and is entering a Stage 2 bull market phase… |
| 2025-08-04 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Fiscal dominance keeps real rates negative and eventually forces yield curve control, making long-duration… |
| 2025-07-30 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Short | Forward Guidance | Rising inflation impulse from dollar weakness, money supply growth, and services-sector price pass-through… |
| 2025-07-20 | Le ShrubCIO, family office (Monaco) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Synchronized global fiscal expansion across the US, Europe, and China creates persistent bond supply pressure… |
| 2025-07-08 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising foreign divestiture of US Treasuries combined with excessive debt and deficits will keep upward… |
| 2025-07-04 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Hidden yield curve control keeps long yields below inflation while bill issuance suppresses duration… |
| 2025-07-03 | Joe DuranCEO, Rise Growth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | The spread between short-term cash (~4%) and 10-year Treasuries (~4.5%) is too thin to compensate for the… |
| 2025-07-01 | Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural Analysis | Bearish | Wealthion | T-bond futures have repeatedly failed to rally and are stuck in the lower quadrant of recent action; a return… |
| 2025-06-25 | Steve HankeProfessor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University | Short | Wealthion | Real yields are rising (from negative toward +2–3%) and the Big Beautiful Bill will flood the market with new… |
| 2025-06-24 | Simon HuntFounder, Simon Hunt Strategic Services | Bearish | Wealthion | CPI is heading to double digits by late 2027–2028, which will force long bond yields to double digits and… |
| 2025-06-23 | Jacob ShapiroGeopolitical strategist | Bearish | Wealthion | The one big beautiful bill adds trillions to the deficit without meaningful near-term cuts, US interest… |
| 2025-06-19 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising US deficits will trigger a UK-style bond market panic as fiscal reality goes mainstream, and 1970s… |
| 2025-06-16 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | An incoming ultra-dovish Fed chair will cut rates aggressively by 200bps while the Treasury caps the front… |
| 2025-06-11 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | The long bond is no longer a flight-to-quality asset — it sold off even as the Fed cut rates and the S&P… |
| 2025-06-11 | Rick RuleFormer CEO, Sprott US Holdings | Bearish | Wealthion | True inflation of 7.5-8% per year against a 4.3% nominal yield produces a guaranteed -3% real return, and… |
| 2025-06-09 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | With the 10-year at ~4.5%, yields must rise 70bps (above the Oct 2023 cycle peak) to generate zero return… |
| 2025-06-05 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Post-COVID inflation is structurally stickier, making 5% 30-year yields the new normal rather than a sign of… |
| 2025-06-04 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Post-COVID stickier inflation normalizes term premiums and real rates at ~2%, and every time the Fed turns… |
| 2025-05-30 | Jens NordvigFounder & CEO, Exante Data | Bearish | The Compound | An unprecedented combination of allied portfolio reallocation away from US fixed income, unchecked fiscal… |
| 2025-05-29 | Francis HuntFounder, The Market Sniper | Short | Wealthion | The 40-year bond bull market ended with a blowoff valuation top in late 2020, and as a global debt-based… |
| 2025-05-28 | David CervantesFounder, Pinebrook Capital Management | Neutral | Forward Guidance | Fiscal re-acceleration and eventual tariff pass-through inflation keep the 10-year rangebound 4.20-4.80% with… |
| 2025-05-28 | Edward DowdFounding Partner, Phinance Technologies | Bullish | Wealthion | Growth is slowing rapidly, real yields at 2% are strangling the economy, housing deflation will drag CPI… |
| 2025-05-25 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bearish | All-In Podcast | A CBO-projected $22T in additional deficit spending over 10 years, combined with a 30-year already above 5%… |
| 2025-05-24 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Short | All-In Podcast | The big beautiful bill adds $3–5T to the deficit while real 30-year rates are already at 5.1% versus the… |
| 2025-05-23 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bearish | Wealthion | Fiscal deficit at 6.5% of GDP, Moody's downgrade, and weak Treasury auctions signal declining investor… |
| 2025-05-21 | David HunterChief Macro Strategist, Contrarian Macro Advisors | Bullish | Wealthion | The Fed is behind the curve and a weakening economy will force bond yields from the current ~4.5% area down… |
| 2025-05-18 | David FriedbergCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-In | Bearish | All-In Podcast | US annual deficit of ~$2.5T (~8% of GDP) is creating a debt death spiral where rising Treasury yields… |
| 2025-05-08 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Large fiscal deficits and sovereign/rival-nation selling of US fixed income are pushing long-end yields… |
| 2025-05-07 | Neil DuttaHead of Economics, Renaissance Macro Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | A recession will drive risk-averse investors into US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, and the 'sell America'… |
| 2025-05-02 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | 30-year yield minus 2-year spread is still historically depressed; normal mean reversion implies 100+ bps of… |
| 2025-05-02 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Treasury buybacks won't move fair-value yields, April's bond selloff concurrent with risk-off had no clean… |
| 2025-05-01 | Bob ElliottCEO & CIO, Unlimited Funds | Bearish | Forward Guidance | As the dollar weakens, foreign holders of fixed-rate US assets demand higher yields to achieve net-neutral… |
| 2025-04-26 | Danny DayanCIO, DWD Partners | Short | Forward Guidance | Tariffs, structural deficits, and sticky inflation create a stagflationary backdrop where any growth… |
| 2025-04-23 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bearish | Wealthion | A 7%-of-GDP fiscal deficit will blow out further in recession, flooding the market with supply at the same… |
| 2025-04-18 | Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research | Bullish | The Compound | The economy cannot sustain a 4.5% Fed funds rate, the negative feedback loop from tariffs and a wealth shock… |
| 2025-04-18 | Capital FlowsFounder, Capital Flows Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Growth will suffer over the next 1-2 years as corporate earnings fall off due to tariffs, but without a… |
| 2025-04-16 | Mel MattisonAuthor & financial services veteran | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Policymakers will engineer stealth yield curve distortion — bill issuance, SLR expansion, stablecoin demand —… |
| 2025-04-15 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed has signaled it will hold rates even in a recession because tariff-driven inflation prevents cuts… |
| 2025-04-15 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Massive leverage embedded in the Treasury basis trade, combined with growing fiscal credibility concerns… |
| 2025-04-11 | Jack FarleyHost, Monetary Matters | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Crypto Twitter being crowded short bonds is a contrarian signal, and the inflation data — oil down 25%… |
| 2025-04-09 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Equilibrium core PCE inflation in the US is structurally 2.9–3%, requiring the Fed to maintain restrictive… |
| 2025-04-02 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Neutral | Wealthion | TLT has tactical rally room on recession fears but structurally limited upside because rates are on a higher… |
| 2025-03-28 | Andrew BeerManaging Member, DBi | Bearish | The Compound | The 40% fixed income allocation that underpinned 60/40 portfolios worked in the 2000s when bonds had negative… |
| 2025-03-25 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bearish | Forward Guidance | EM-ification of the US — rampant deficits, fiscal authorities dominating monetary, foreign capital flight… |
| 2025-03-21 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fed and Treasury are explicitly aligned on suppressing yields and are willing to accept economic pain, with… |
| 2025-03-21 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fed is in a hawkish stance and Treasury is aligned on bringing yields down, making bonds the most obvious… |
| 2025-03-14 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Long bonds offer limited convexity because if growth craters enough to require big Fed stimulus, rising… |
| 2025-03-12 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Temporary artificial demand sources — TGA drawdown, primary dealer balance sheet bloat (~$450B vs $200B avg)… |
| 2025-02-25 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | The US bond market has been in a bear market since summer 2020 — one of the worst in history — with 30-year… |
| 2025-02-21 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | Massive supply must hit the long end as the Fed rebalances its portfolio from bonds to bills and Treasury… |
| 2025-02-13 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® | Inflation will rise gradually from ~3% toward 5-6% by end of decade, pushing 10-year yields toward 8% and… |
| 2025-02-12 | Larry LepardManaging Partner, EMA2 | Bearish | Wealthion | With the US in a compounding sovereign debt crisis and the bond market already pricing risk (10-year yield up… |
| 2025-02-11 | Michael OliverFounder, Momentum Structural Analysis | Bearish | Wealthion | Annual and quarterly momentum on T-bonds broke in October 2020 and has remained broken for four years; yields… |
| 2025-02-06 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Peter H. Diamandis | The supply of US treasuries will substantially exceed demand as global holders are already overweight and… |
| 2025-02-05 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | The US must refinance over $10 trillion this year on top of fresh $2 trillion deficits while inflation… |
| 2025-01-28 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | interview | Unsustainable US debt levels create a structural supply/demand imbalance in government bonds; holders face… |
| 2025-01-22 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Shift from bill to coupon issuance, bond vigilantes repricing inflation at 3.5% vs the advertised 2%, and… |
| 2025-01-22 | Brent DonnellyPresident, Spectra Markets | Bullish | Forward Guidance | US economic data momentum is softening at the margin and yields are likely a touch elevated; historically TLT… |
| 2025-01-21 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | Trump administration's deficit-expanding policies and tax-cut extension talk will frighten bond markets… |
| 2025-01-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Hidden Forces | Post-COVID structural shift to persistently higher inflation (~3% vs pre-2020 1.5–2%) combined with large… |
| 2025-01-17 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz)CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management | Bullish | The Compound | The rate selloff overshot fundamentals, and with an all-equity portfolio carrying no offsets, zero coupon… |
| 2025-01-15 | Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The neutral rate is lower than the SOFR curve implies, a housing-led growth scare in H1 2025 will force 3–4… |
| 2025-01-14 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | Rising interest rates and the US debt solvency crisis make long-dated Treasuries very risky as the final… |
| 2025-01-04 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Ztrader Dorian | Persistent inflation and geopolitical disruption make the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio ineffective… |
| 2025-01-02 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | With over $1 trillion in US government debt rolling over, persistent deficits globally, and a US economy that… |
| 2024-12-30 | Peter SchiffCEO & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed has already lost control of the long end — long-term rates have risen every day since the Fed started… |
| 2024-12-26 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Fixed income does not keep pace with monetary inflation because nominal yields are structurally suppressed… |
| 2024-12-18 | Joseph WangCIO, Monetary Macro | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Market is mispricing the Fed's dovish path — 4-6 cuts likely vs the consensus 2 — making current long-bond… |
| 2024-12-12 | Warren MoslerMMT economist; founder, Mosler Automotive & AVM | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Structural demand from pension and retirement funds systematically absorbs long-bond supply via… |
| 2024-12-07 | Capital FlowsFounder, Capital Flows Research | Bullish | Forward Guidance | The 2-year approaching Fed funds was pricing in hikes that will not materialize; taking the other side of… |
| 2024-12-07 | Peter SchiffCEO & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed has lost control of the long end of the bond market — long-term rates have risen since the Fed began… |
| 2024-12-06 | Peter SchiffCEO & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed has already lost control of the long end — long-term rates rose immediately after the Fed's rate cuts… |
| 2024-12-05 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Disinflationary trend is intact, large tariff hikes are unlikely under Trump's economics team, and a cooling… |
| 2024-12-04 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Current 5–7% rate environment is unsustainable for ongoing economic growth, forcing rates lower and making… |
| 2024-11-30 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | LifeWorthLiving | Real M2 is declining at nearly 3% annually in trend-adjusted terms — the largest deceleration since the 1930s… |
| 2024-11-28 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bearish | Wealthion | The 10-year Treasury yields 4% but surrenders 250bps to inflation in real terms, while premature Fed rate… |
| 2024-11-26 | Jason TrennertChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Market was pricing 4–5 additional Fed cuts to below 4%; Trennert believes the Fed should hold at a 3.5–4%… |
| 2024-11-18 | David EinhornFounder, Greenlight Capital | Bearish | CNBC Events | Bond market is not yet pricing in fiscal dominance or skyrocketing deficits from expansionary policy, meaning… |
| 2024-11-16 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bearish | All-In Podcast | Running 8% of GDP deficits for four to five years under Trump makes a 10-year yield of 7% a mathematical… |
| 2024-11-16 | Jonathan WellumCEO & CIO, RockLinc Investment Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Massive global government deficits combined with trillions in short-term US debt constantly rolling over… |
| 2024-11-14 | Andy ConstanFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors | Short | Hidden Forces | Fed cutting into above-trend growth and sticky inflation while a trillion dollars of duration must be termed… |
| 2024-11-06 | Chris CaseyManaging Director, WindRock Wealth Management | Bearish | Wealthion | US debt trajectory risks a UK gilt-style repricing event where bond investors demand a risk premium on… |
| 2024-11-01 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | Lead-Lag Media | A Trump victory would drive the long end of the yield curve higher due to expectations of greater fiscal… |
| 2024-11-01 | Michael BingerPresident, Gradient Investments | Bullish | Wealthion | 10-year yields near 4.25% offer attractive income in a balanced portfolio at a point where the Fed is cutting… |
| 2024-10-29 | Jurrien TimmerDirector of Global Macro, Fidelity Investments | Short | Forward Guidance | Persistent fiscal expansion regardless of election outcome should push the term premium from near-zero to… |
| 2024-10-26 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The economy is getting hot for good reasons (growth re-rating, not inflation), which will push yields higher… |
| 2024-10-26 | Jared DillianAuthor, The Daily Dirtnap | Bearish | Wealthion | The Fed cutting 50bps with unemployment at 4.1% risks re-igniting inflation that never fully subsided, making… |
| 2024-10-25 | David SacksVC — Craft Ventures | Bearish | All-In Podcast | Inflation is not whipped, the Fed may have cut too aggressively, and the US fiscal deficit trajectory makes a… |
| 2024-10-23 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Short | TorontoWealthGroup | US debt/GDP is on a path to 200% in 30 years with $2T annual deficits as far as the eye can see, making the… |
| 2024-10-22 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | CNBC Television | The US debt proposition — $35T owed vs $5T tax revenue with a $2T annual deficit expanding toward 200%… |
| 2024-10-22 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Short | interview | US debt at 98% of GDP on a CBO path to 122%+ with $2T annual deficits makes long bonds structurally… |
| 2024-10-18 | Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research | Bearish | The Compound | The 10-year has already priced in all expected Fed cuts; at a neutral Fed funds rate of ~3% the fair value… |
| 2024-10-16 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Short | Bloomberg Television | A Republican red sweep would boost animal spirits and economic growth, but bond yields don't currently… |
| 2024-10-16 | Tony GreerFounder, TG Macro | Short | Forward Guidance | The Fed's 50bp cut into a still-healthy economy risks reigniting headline inflation, and bond markets were… |
| 2024-10-15 | Leo KellyFounder & CEO, Verdence Capital Advisors | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | Inflation remains a major threat and if the Fed eases too aggressively it will reaccelerate, making long… |
| 2024-10-12 | Felix JauvinCo-host, Forward Guidance (Blockworks) | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The Fed is cutting into resilient, inflationary growth which will shorten the easing cycle and keep long-end… |
| 2024-10-08 | Chris VermeulenFounder & Chief Investment Strategist, The Technical Traders | Bullish | Wealthion | Bonds have bottomed after the rate-spike correction and are reverting to their pre-2020 inverse relationship… |
| 2024-10-05 | Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTree | Bearish | Wealthion | Neither party is focused on the deficit so persistent government borrowing will keep the true neutral rate… |
| 2024-10-04 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Fed funds rate is 200+ bps above neutral while the economy is at dual-mandate balance, forcing a full easing… |
| 2024-10-02 | Geo ChenAuthor, Fidenza Macro | Short | Wealthion | Markets are pricing Fed funds at 3% by mid-2025, but stronger-than-expected data will only justify ~3.5%… |
| 2024-10-01 | Jeremy SchwartzGlobal CIO, WisdomTree | Bearish | Wealthion | The 10-year yield should re-price into the 4–5% range as recession risk fades and the yield curve normalizes… |
| 2024-09-21 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Short | Wealthion | A hyper-reactive Fed front-loading cuts alongside reaccelerating shelter inflation, 3% real GDP growth, and… |
| 2024-09-21 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Fixed income markets do not keep pace with monetary inflation driven by the debt-liquidity spiral, making… |
| 2024-09-20 | Jee GoldmanCIO, Satara | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Most 2024 treasury gains are already captured; the steepening yield curve from Fed cuts puts upward pressure… |
| 2024-09-20 | Jee GoldmanCIO, Satara | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Fed rate cuts will stimulate economic activity and put upward pressure on inflation, driving yields higher… |
| 2024-09-19 | Vincent DeluardGlobal Macro Strategist, StoneX | Bearish | Wealthion | Bonds have already rallied ~15% as yields dropped 150bps, yet the economy is growing above potential… |
| 2024-09-18 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | Fixed income cannot keep pace with monetary inflation driven by structural deficit monetization, and the… |
| 2024-09-14 | Quinn ThompsonFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital | Short | Forward Guidance | Bond yields are at levels attractive for shorting given persistent services and shelter inflation stickiness… |
| 2024-09-12 | Warren PiesCo-founder, 3Fourteen Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Inflation fears have shifted to growth fears, restoring the traditional negative stock-bond correlation so… |
| 2024-09-11 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | Oxbow Advisors | As the Fed is forced to gradually lower rates over the next 18-24 months due to economic slowdown and… |
| 2024-09-07 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Both growth and inflation are falling simultaneously, making bonds the best risk-adjusted asset as overvalued… |
| 2024-09-06 | Brent JohnsonCEO, Santiago Capital | Bearish | Wealthion | The 40-year bond bull market has ended; rising rates are a structural feature of the milkshake regime, not a… |
| 2024-09-04 | Eric WallersteinChief Macro Strategist, Clocktower Group | Neutral | Forward Guidance | Persistent fiscal deficits above the unemployment rate for the foreseeable future and structural upside… |
| 2024-08-31 | Dylan SmithFounder & Chief Economist, arcMacro | Bullish | Wealthion | A golden window exists to lock in high rates before the Fed's easing cycle drives the policy rate from 5.5%… |
| 2024-08-29 | Marc FaberEditor, Gloom Boom & Doom Report | Neutral | Wealthion | Long bonds became very oversold through April 2024 and have already rallied 10%, but approaching Fed rate… |
| 2024-08-28 | Michael HowellLiquidity strategist — CrossBorder Capital | Bearish | Forward Guidance | A bear steepener is far more likely than a bull steepener because the long end carries ~100bps of negative… |
| 2024-08-27 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Wealthion | Fed easing cycle will drag the 10-year yield below 3.5% as portfolios rotting under-allocated to fixed income… |
| 2024-08-24 | Tyler NevilleTrader, Muddy Waters Capital | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Fed easing cycle puts a floor under fixed income as inflation subsides and rate cuts begin, generating… |
| 2024-08-14 | Peter BoockvarCIO, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bearish | Wealthion | Structural fiscal deficits expanding in any downturn keep long-end yields elevated even as the Fed cuts short… |
| 2024-08-12 | Mel MattisonAuthor & financial services veteran | Bearish | Forward Guidance | The market is wrongly buying the weakening-jobs and falling-inflation narrative that pushed the 10-year to… |
| 2024-08-10 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | The Market Huddle | In a structurally high nominal GDP and inflationary multi-polar world, bonds will be a tradable instrument… |
| 2024-08-02 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Forward Guidance | Growth scare and imminent recession trigger the portfolio rebalancing channel — bond rallies force… |
| 2024-07-25 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | Macro Voices | A Trump sweep with stimulative tax cuts would sustain elevated growth and inflation expectations, preventing… |
| 2024-07-23 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Forward Guidance | ATI has artificially suppressed 10-year yields by ~25bps; unwinding ~$1 trillion of bills back into coupon… |
| 2024-07-17 | Ira JerseyFixed-income strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence | Bullish | Bloomberg Surveillance | The Fed will ultimately cut more than the market-implied 200 basis points because the economy is likely to… |
| 2024-06-14 | Darius DaleFounder & CEO, 42 Macro | Bearish | Kris Sidial | Structural inflation is tracking 2.6–3% on core PCE (vs 1.6% prior trend) per their secular inflation model… |
| 2024-05-24 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Kitco NEWS | The bubble is in long-duration US Treasury bonds: Fed rate hikes on 120% debt-to-GDP are paradoxically… |
| 2024-05-23 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Bond yields are in a secular rising trend driven by structural fiscal deficits, mandatory monetization of… |
| 2024-05-17 | Katy KaminskiChief Research Strategist, AlphaSimplex Group | Short | interview | In high-inflationary environments treasuries no longer serve as risk-off safe havens—bond-stock correlation… |
| 2024-04-20 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bearish | The Investor’s Podcast | At 4.5% the 30-year treasury compounds interest at fixed income yields while a good business retained… |
| 2024-04-17 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Short | ForexAnalytix | 10-year yields breaking above 4.3%, strong dollar, and oil above $82 recreate the August-September 2023 toxic… |
| 2024-03-26 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | US deficit has ballooned from $8T to $34T in 23 years and higher-for-longer rates mean financing costs will… |
| 2024-03-18 | Lyn AldenIndependent macro strategist | Bearish | Lyn Alden Finance | US public debt exceeds 122% of GDP, interest expense is surpassing $1 trillion and rising, and the 40-year… |
| 2024-02-29 | Kyle BassFounder/CIO, Hayman Capital | Bullish | The Investor’s Podcast | US Treasuries used as post-margin collateral for selling HKD forward provide 3.5-4% positive carry, meaning… |
| 2024-02-14 | Paul Tudor JonesFounder/CIO, Tudor Investment Corp | Bearish | Palm Beach Civic Association | The US must bring $2.8T in Treasury supply to market annually against a backdrop of structurally worsening… |
| 2024-02-14 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | CNBC Television | The fixed income market had priced in 6-7 Fed cuts starting in March, which is unrealistic given sticky… |
| 2024-01-31 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Option Alpha | 10-year yields fell from 5%+ to sub-4% in six weeks leaving positioning off-sides; election-year fiscal… |
| 2024-01-18 | Adam PosenPresident, Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | G7 plus China are all on a structural fiscal expansion path — sustained defense and green spending — which… |
| 2024-01-13 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Bullish | CNBC Television | With inflation cooling meaningfully, real interest rates are very high and the Fed will be forced to cut… |
| 2023-12-06 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | Library Of Wealth | The Fed has overdone rate hikes and is making a policy mistake; rates are likely to come down, making long… |
| 2023-11-30 | Jamie DimonChairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase | Bearish | New York Times Events | Record government deficits (debt/GDP now ~100% vs 35% last inflation cycle), green transition spending… |
| 2023-11-15 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Structural $2 trillion deficits mean long-end rates ultimately rise to new highs after any Pavlovian… |
| 2023-10-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | The Julia La Roche Show | Severe monetary deceleration, collapsing ODL/money supply, negative net national saving, and an impending… |
| 2023-10-24 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bearish | interview | Structural inflation from supply-chain politicization, populism, immigration restrictions, and a US fiscal… |
| 2023-10-18 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Short | DoubleLine Capital | Structural fiscal math — 8%+ deficit-to-GDP, $400B+ in added interest expense since hikes began, and deficits… |
| 2023-10-18 | Cem KarsanFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors | Bearish | Public App | Secular structural inflation driven by fiscal dominance, populism, de-globalization, and labor power is… |
| 2023-10-05 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | ForexAnalytix | Structurally unsolvable supply/demand mismatch — foreigners have $7.5T to sell, banks are sitting on $4.6T of… |
| 2023-10-03 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Fair value on the 10-year is closer to 5% (vs. the 3–3.5% many investors assumed), meaning hundreds of… |
| 2023-09-28 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Short | CNBC Television | Structural inflation persistently above 3% makes a 30-year fixed contract at ~4.7% unattractive, while record… |
| 2023-09-22 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bullish | Hedgeye | Contractionary fiscal and monetary policy, negative net national savings, declining money supply and bank… |
| 2023-09-19 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | The 10-year bond yield should settle around 4–4.5% as the economy returns to 'old normal' pre-GFC levels… |
| 2023-09-18 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Structural supply-side shocks (deglobalization, aging, climate, geopolitics) and persistent fiscal deficits… |
| 2023-08-31 | Louis Vincent GaveCo-founder & CEO, Gavekal | Short | Louis-Vincent Gave | US fiscal deficit is now 40% of global budget deficits while the government failed to lock in low rates… |
| 2023-08-18 | Jeremy GranthamCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Structural re-entry into a period of moderately higher inflation means interest rates will remain… |
| 2023-08-10 | Joe Terranova (Virtus)Chief market strategist, Virtus | Bearish | Bill Nygren | Increased Treasury issuance is creating supply-driven yield pressure, while asset managers already long… |
| 2023-06-30 | Ed YardeniPresident, Yardeni Research | Neutral | Bloomberg Television | Bond market is calm despite further Fed rate hikes because inflation is perceived to be declining with or… |
| 2023-06-30 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | interview | Structural foreign demand for Treasuries is eroding as dedollarization reduces the need for dollar reserve… |
| 2023-06-19 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | ForexAnalytix | Banks are no longer buying Treasuries due to underwater portfolios, the Fed is doing QT, and massive… |
| 2023-06-08 | Nassim TalebAuthor; advisor, Universa Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg Live | 5% rates are merely historically normal, not restrictive, and the Fed may need to go much higher to kill… |
| 2023-06-07 | Stanley DruckenmillerChairman/CEO, Duquesne Family Office | Bearish | Bloomberg Live | US unfunded entitlement liabilities of ~$200 trillion present value combined with rising interest expense… |
| 2023-05-20 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Bitcoin Magazine | The Fed will suppress Treasury yields through a spectrum of tools (BTFP, operation twist-like issuance… |
| 2023-03-31 | Nouriel RoubiniEconomist; professor emeritus, NYU Stern | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Global debt-to-GDP at 420% means rising interest rates create unbearable carrying costs, producing an… |
| 2023-03-20 | Bill AckmanCEO, Pershing Square | Short | 20VC with Harry Stebbings | Persistent 3-4% structural inflation makes a 3.6% 30-year Treasury yield inadequate compensation, implying… |
| 2023-03-13 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Resource Talks | Foreign central banks have stopped buying Treasuries since the Ukraine war outbreak, dealer capacity to move… |
| 2023-03-13 | Bobby J | Bearish | Jim Chanos | The Fed and Treasury implicitly target 3-4% inflation to inflate away a ~$50T global zero-coupon-equivalent… |
| 2023-03-07 | Zoltan PozsarFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse | Bearish | Bullish Bearish | Shifting commodity trade away from dollar financing breaks the recycling loop where petrodollars fund… |
| 2023-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | Recession is coming regardless of severity (hard or soft landing), and duration extension provides the… |
| 2023-02-18 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | More George Gammon | Debt-to-GDP at 130% forces sovereigns to maintain structurally negative real interest rates as a matter of… |
| 2023-01-16 | Eric BasmajianFounder, EPB Macro Research | Bullish | Michael Green | Fed will be forced to cut earlier and deeper than priced-in as recession arrives imminently, with secular… |
| 2022-12-31 | Cathie WoodCEO & CIO, ARK Invest | Bullish | FINANCE INSIDER | The bond market is telegraphing lower-than-expected inflation or recession, with the 10-year yield already… |
| 2022-12-16 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Foremost Financial | Recession is coming in 2023 and inflation is already in the rearview mirror due to supply-side improvement… |
| 2022-12-15 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | Excess Returns | 10-year yields above 4% were mispriced because either recession risk or a Fed pivot would cause them to… |
| 2022-12-09 | Marko PapicGeopolitical macro strategist | Bullish | WTFinance | CPI will fall materially toward 4% and the Fed lacks political support to push further to 2%, so the 10-year… |
| 2022-11-25 | Hugh HendryFormer hedge fund manager — Eclectica | Bullish | Lacy Hunt | Peak in long-term yields likely already in at ~4.5%, with dollar destruction offshore and domestic monetary… |
| 2022-11-09 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | ForexAnalytix | The first global sovereign debt bubble in 100 years is bursting — Treasury net issuance is doubling… |
| 2022-07-21 | Harley BassmanManaging Partner, Simplify Asset Management | Bearish | Macro Voices | Powell will aggressively hike to protect his legacy (contrasting with Arthur Burns), nominal GDP running at… |
| 2022-06-21 | Michael Green (Simplify)Chief Strategist & PM, Simplify | Bullish | Chris Cole | The US economy cannot sustain rates above roughly 3% given collapsing household formation, demographic… |
| 2022-04-25 | Keith McculloughCEO & Founder, Hedgeye Risk Management | Bullish | Michael Green | Entering quad-4 disinflation as leading indicators (ISM new orders, MBA purchase applications, freight) roll… |
| 2021-06-29 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Real Vision Presents | Bond market has prematurely priced in peak inflation and peak fed funds above the prior cycle's ceiling… |
| 2021-06-02 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | Fixed income remains a deflation hedge but is increasingly neutered as rates approach zero, making it the… |
| 2021-06-02 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | Jay Taylor Media | Inflation expectations are overstated and will fall as fiscal stimulus fades in H2, economic activity… |
| 2020-08-26 | Diego ParrillaCIO, Quadriga Asset Managers | Bullish | Raoul Pal | Hiking rates is politically and systemically impossible regardless of inflation, so nominal yields grind… |
| 2020-06-28 | Peter SchiffCEO & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital | Bearish | Brent Johnson | US stocks and bonds are trading at rich valuations relative to foreign assets, which will erode foreign… |
| 2020-03-12 | Chris Cole (Artemis)Founder & CIO, Artemis Capital Management | Bearish | Chris Cole | With rates near the zero bound, bonds can no longer provide the same cushion they did in prior crises; to… |
| 2020-01-23 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | DoubleLine Capital | Persistent deflation, elevated recession risk, and an eventual aggressive Fed easing cycle will drive… |
| 2018-10-15 | Carl IcahnActivist investor — Icahn Enterprises | Bearish | CNBC Television | Keeping interest rates abnormally low forces a future reckoning as the Fed cannot indefinitely print money… |
| 2018-03-18 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Short | The Intrinsic Value Podcast | Bond yields remain too low relative to rising inflation and synchronized global growth, so yields must move… |
| 2017-06-20 | David RosenbergEconomist — Rosenberg Research | Bullish | CNBC | Intensifying disinflation across CPI/PCE components, only 1 of 16 major economic indicators beating… |
| 2012-04-07 | Bill MillerFounder, Miller Value Partners (retired) | Bearish | WEALTHTRACK | Nominal GDP is growing faster than the debt burden with ten-year yields below 2.5%, and if the… |
| 2011-12-17 | Chris DavisChairman, Davis Advisors | Bearish | WEALTHTRACK | Investors locking in 1.5% Treasury yields face near-certain real-money destruction given the dollar's… |
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The options tape
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where TLT’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 5 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are member content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | ||||||
| 2026-10-01 | ||||||
| 2026-09-29 | ||||||
| 2026-09-25 | ||||||
| 2026-09-10 |
+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
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