The Brief — edition, Friday, September 25 2026
session 2026-09-25 · 665 liquid names scanned · insight, not advice
One idea OBSERVATION
The single most interesting thing in what investors said publicly this quarter — not a recommendation, and not a prediction.
Sixteen investors are publicly bearish on the dollar, but only one of them is actually positioned for it.
Bob Doll, Bob Elliott, Darius Dale, David Rosenberg, Felix Jauvin, Hatsuo Yamasaki, Jeffrey Gundlach and Louis-Vincent Gave have all voiced a bearish dollar view. Of the full group of sixteen, only Andreas Steno Larsen holds a position that reflects it. Everyone else is talking a weaker dollar without a matching trade on record.
Counted from the corpus: 16 people are bearish on USD; 1 of them actually hold the position.
What changed in the themes OBSERVATION
Each desk theme against the prior edition (2026-09-24): movers versus the base rate, 8-K filings into the theme, and new dated views. Changed themes first.
AI & data centers changed
14 up, 1 down of 40 names moved >10% in 20 sessions; 2 8-Ks filed into the theme: CLSK, MARA; 1 new dated view (1 bullish): Aswath Damodaran
Biggest 20-session moves: INTC +34.9%, AMD +33.0%, META +30.9%, ARM +23.3%
New dated views: Aswath Damodaran (bullish)
Defense & drones changed
2 up, 9 down of 18 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (+6 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: AXON -29.4%, RCAT -27.6%, USAR -20.8%, PL -17.9%
Energy (oil & gas) changed
3 up, 3 down of 19 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (+21 pts vs last edition); 1 8-K filed into the theme: TDW; 3 new dated views (3 bullish): Cathie Wood, Peter Tchir, Michael Every
Biggest 20-session moves: NUAI +37.2%, CLMT +14.6%, VLO +11.7%, BKV -11.2%
New dated views: Cathie Wood (bullish), Peter Tchir (bullish), Michael Every (bullish)
Nuclear & uranium changed
0 up, 7 down of 12 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (+25 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: UEC -30.9%, UUUU -27.9%, NXE -16.8%, CCJ -16.8%
Power & the grid changed
2 up, 0 down of 7 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (-21 pts vs last edition); 1 8-K filed into the theme: AESI
Biggest 20-session moves: BE +33.9%, FPS +21.6%, OKLO -9.9%, CEG -6.4%
Robotics & autonomy changed
3 up, 1 down of 12 names moved >10% in 20 sessions (+17 pts vs last edition)
Biggest 20-session moves: OUST +19.4%, ONDS -11.4%, DE +11.0%, ISRG +10.3%
Has this worked? OBSERVATION
Every convergence we have ever flagged, priced from the next session’s open and measured against SPY over the same window — 291 of them at 60 sessions.
Average +0.74% vs SPY, but the median was 0.00% — the typical convergence matched the market exactly, and 43% beat it. The average is carried by a small number of large winners, not by being right consistently.
Build your own combination → How many voices, how many of them run money, whether anyone is actually positioned, macro or single names, and how long a hold.
Your book OBSERVATION
| Name | Price | 5d | IV (own-yr pctile) | Δ$ vs norm | Calls | Sell-put signals* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL Software | $344.01 | -1.95% | IV 30.0 (23p) | Δ$ 0.6× | calls 72.5% | not today |
| GLD ETF | $393.41 | -1.93% | IV 19.8 (0p) | Δ$ 0.7× | calls 68.8% | not today |
| SLV ETF | $58.14 | -2.99% | IV 31.6 (0p) | Δ$ 0.8× | calls 66.9% | high vol |
*The three validated put-selling signals — explained in the next section.
Rich premium today VALIDATED
What this means: if any of these is a stock you'd own at the right price,
today is a well-paid day to sell its put. We check three conditions, each
independently validated on ten years of real option quotes — every one, on its
own, earned put sellers more per trade than selling on a random day:
high vol — the options are expensive in absolute terms (IV ≥ 30)
top of its year — premium in the top quarter of that name's own trailing year
post-drop — the stock fell 5%+ this week; protection is being bid
More conditions = a better day. Signal is from last night's close and typically
persists days, not hours — verify the live quote at the open. The example contract
is the shape our validation used: ~40 days out, ~20-delta, held to expiry,
assignment acceptable.
| Name | IV | Own-yr pctile | Why today | Example contract (last close) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL Software | 48.4 | 22 | high vol, post-drop — drop not yet priced into premium | Nov 6 $120p · $2.76 bid ≈ 2.3% / 42d |
| MU Semis Earnings in 5d | 72.7 | 64 | high vol | Oct 30 $945p · $23.6 bid ≈ 2.5% / 35d |
| GS Inv. Banking | 32.0 | 58 | high vol | Nov 6 $855p · $9.95 bid ≈ 1.16% / 42d |
| INTC Semis | 65.2 | 57 | high vol | Oct 30 $105p · $3.35 bid ≈ 3.19% / 35d |
| MS Inv. Banking | 30.5 | 57 | high vol | Nov 6 $180p · $2.56 bid ≈ 1.42% / 42d |
| UNH Health Insurance | 33.8 | 51 | high vol | Oct 23 $345p · $5.0 bid ≈ 1.45% / 28d |
Fact feed OBSERVATION
LEAPS & size builds
| Name | Δ$ vs norm | Elevated (last 5) | LEAPS | Calls | Δ$ | 5d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CM | 8.3× | 3/5 | 55.2% | 77.5% | $18.9M | -1.11% |
| FUN Entertainment | 7.7× | 2/5 | 85.8% | 86.3% | $5.5M | +2.29% |
| PZZA Restaurants | 5.6× | 2/5 | 82.5% | 88.0% | $8.4M | -1.26% |
| KEYS Tech Hardware | 4.1× | 2/5 | 86.5% | 90.3% | $66.0M | +8.1% |
| GEN Software | 3.1× | 3/5 | 17.8% | 71.8% | $7.2M | -25.24% |
Volume out of the ordinary
The board OBSERVATION
What changed on the Idea Scout board since the last edition — new mentions from tracked speakers, flips against their own prior stance, and doubled-down repeats. Who said what, on the record — not who is right.
5 of today's 12 stances are from one conversation (Raoul Pal, Sep 25).
2 of today's 12 stances are from one conversation (Bloomberg Surveillance, Sep 25).
| Speaker | Idea | Call | Change | Where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall St Macro — Narrated YouTube explainer channel (not an individual) |
TLT ETF The 30-year yield rise is driven almost entirely by higher real yields and tighter-Fed expectations rather… “the bond market does not look broken. It looks expensive. It is sending a bill.” |
SHORT | new | CNBC Fast Money Final Trade 2026-09-27 |
| Luke Gromen — Macro strategist — founder, FFTT |
GLD ETF Fiscal deficits could expand to $5.8–7T as foreigners, banks, pensions, and hedge-fund basis traders are all… “I think gold's going to be at least five figures by the time this is all said and done” |
LONG | doubled down | Luke Gromen 2026-09-25 |
| Luke Gromen — Macro strategist — founder, FFTT |
TLT ETF With structural inflation heading toward double digits if Hormuz stays closed and the US needing Treasuries… “which bond do I want to own...the answer is none of them because inflation's going to double digits” |
SHORT | flipped from long | Luke Gromen 2026-09-25 |
| Cathie Wood — CEO & CIO, ARK Invest |
XLE ETF Convergence of five simultaneous technology platforms is expected to lift global real GDP growth to 7%+ over… “we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average growth north of 7%” |
LONG | flipped from short | Cathie Wood 2026-09-25 |
| Peter Tchir — Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
TLT ETF Building out domestic energy infrastructure and supply chain reshoring is structurally inflationary, making… |
SHORT | new | Bloomberg Surveillance 2026-09-25 |
| Raoul Pal — Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM |
ZEC Zcash is a simple narrative play — private/anonymous Bitcoin analog that could rationally reach 10% of… “could it be 10% of Bitcoin's market? Yeah, that makes total sense” |
LONG | new | Raoul Pal 2026-09-25 |
| Raoul Pal — Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM |
BTC-USD Bitcoin is the core debasement hedge in his Everything Code framework — structurally rising debt monetization… “you just had to buy Bitcoin, NASDAQ, and do nothing for 20 years” |
LONG | doubled down | Raoul Pal 2026-09-25 |
| Raoul Pal — Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM |
QQQ ETF US tech companies are the biggest AI adopters and are compounding revenue per employee dramatically (NVIDIA… “It is just technology, stocks, and crypto” |
LONG | doubled down | Raoul Pal 2026-09-25 |
| Raoul Pal — Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM |
UUP ETF Bessent is actively engineering dollar weakness to enable bond sales, has secured swap lines with Japan… “if you start weakening the dollar, everybody wins” |
SHORT | flipped from long | Raoul Pal 2026-09-25 |
| Raoul Pal — Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM |
TLT ETF CTA short positioning in US bonds is at the largest in history, creating kindling for a sharp reversal… “If you do it with some sort of longer-dated call options, you probably can make some real money out of that trade” |
LONG | flipped from short | Raoul Pal 2026-09-25 |
| Aswath Damodaran — Professor of finance, NYU Stern |
QQQ ETF The 'big market delusion' means all AI incumbents cannot simultaneously win; $2.5T in capex has been deployed… “we've built the largest factory in history... we don't know what the factory will make” |
SHORT | doubled down | Aswath Damodaran 2026-09-25 |
| Peter Tchir — Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities |
XLE ETF Canada is pivoting away from green ideology and moving to harness its natural resources, creating a positive… “Canada and Australia both seem to be realizing we have resources, let's harness this” |
LONG | doubled down | Bloomberg Surveillance 2026-09-25 |
Pattern book — last 90 days RECENT PATTERN
Rolling window, descriptive, not validated — re-scored quarterly, carried until the regime breaks.
| Shape | n | Mean α10 | WR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Settled options RVOL ≥4× with call-heavy tape (the uoa-fam | 1,786 | -0.9% | 43.8% |
| Name down ≥5% over 5 sessions (post-drop) | 7,683 | -0.5% | 45.2% |
| IV rank ≥75 (rich-premium cohort, read as an equity signal | 6,186 | -1.0% | 45.2% |
| Concentrated single-strike call positioning (HHI ≥0.25, ca | 8,006 | -0.69% | 44.7% |
Idea Scout — the human tape OBSERVATION
Harvest of 2026-09-28 (weekly board).
| Theme | Long : Short | Board |
|---|---|---|
| USTS | 32 : 28 | contested |
| SPX | 30 : 27 | contested |
| LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | 17 : 32 | contested |
| USD | 11 : 15 | contested |
| GOLD | 54 : 3 | crowded long |
| ENERGY | 33 : 0 | crowded long |
| INDUSTRIALS | 17 : 1 | crowded long |
| META | 14 : 2 | crowded long |
The c8alpha take
The utilities ETF XLV is running call-heavy volume at more than eight times its normal pace, three sessions in a row, with implied volatility near a yearly high — power demand being bid defensively in the one sector that was supposed to be boring. That trades oddly against the nuclear cluster, where every mover this month has been lower with nothing on the upside. The market is sorting the power story: grid infrastructure holds, uranium doesn't.
Four managers in ten days have independently gone short long-duration Treasuries, all arriving at structural inflation as the thesis rather than a cyclical view. Whether the long bond confirms or rejects that read tomorrow is the cleanest signal to watch.
One thing worth noting before the close: sixteen voices are publicly bearish on the dollar, but only one of them holds a position that actually reflects it. When the talk-to-trade gap is that wide, the gap itself is the story.
Written by our analyst model from tonight's computed facts only. Opinion, not advice.