Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.
Themes where at least 3 speakers landed on the same side in the last 14 days, with no more than one voice against. This is the week’s news — where agreement formed or hardened. A theme tagged standing 90d was already near-unanimous before this week, so the fresh voices are joining a crowded trade rather than starting one.
| Theme | Proxy | Direction | Speakers | Who & where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD standing 90d | GLD | BULLISH | 14 | Andreas Steno (Raoul Pal), Bob Haber (Forward Guidance), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Felix Jauvin (Forward Guidance), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Jason Trennert (Stanley Druckenmiller), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden), Mario Nawfal (Luke Gromen), Mebane Faber (Meb Faber), Michael Howell (Michael Howell), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Richard Young (Wealthion) |
| BITCOIN | BTC-USD | BULLISH | 6 (1 dissenter) | Andreas Steno (Raoul Pal), Felix Jauvin (Forward Guidance), Jason Trennert (Stanley Druckenmiller), Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden), Matt Hougan (Bitwise) (Forward Guidance), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Tom Lee) |
| USD | UUP | BEARISH | 4 | Andreas Steno (Raoul Pal), Darius Dale (Macro Voices), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices) |
Every name above has a receipt — the interview, the date, the quote. Those ride in The Brief, the daily edition.
Themes with ≥3 speakers on each side. The split itself is the signal — the fault line between camps often reveals more than the count does.
LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) — 4 LONG vs 7 SHORT
LONG: Ben Carlson (The Compound), Brandon Clark (A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson)), Jason Trennert (Stanley Druckenmiller), Scott Grannis (Calafia Beach Pundit (Scott Grannis))
SHORT: Bob Haber (Forward Guidance), Darius Dale (Macro Voices), David Freeberg (All-In Podcast), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Nick Colas (The Compound), Patrick Boyle (Patrick Boyle)
The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.
| Theme | Split | Leans | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 19–18 | BULLISH | Chris Galipeau, Julian Emanuel, Jenny Harrington (Gilman Hill), Luke Gromen +15 | Chris Bloomstran, Nick Colas, Mebane Faber, Michael Howell +14 |
| USTS | 16–15 | BULLISH | Aswath Damodaran, Ben Carlson, David Rosenberg, David Woo +12 | Marc Faber, Nick Colas, Michael Howell, Lyn Alden +11 |
| NVDA | 19–10 | BULLISH | David Sacks, Guy Adami (RiskReversal), Gene Munster, Chris Roland +15 | Chris Whalen, Ed Zitron, Joachim Klement, Ben Thompson +6 |
| BIG_TECH | 11–10 | BULLISH | Dan Skelly, Raoul Pal, Ed Yardeni, Jonathan Thomas +7 | David Woo, Quinn Thompson, Luke Gromen, Patrick Boyle +6 |
| LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | 9–22 | BEARISH | Scott Grannis, Brandon Clark, Ben Carlson, Jason Trennert +5 | Guy Adami (RiskReversal), Bob Haber, David Freeberg, Patrick Boyle +18 |
| BITCOIN | 18–8 | BULLISH | Matt Hougan (Bitwise), Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Felix Jauvin, Andreas Steno +14 | Michael Howell, Jim Chanos, Ray Dalio, Brent Donnelly +4 |
Where the crowd already stands, measured over the full 90 days — not this week’s news. A theme tagged + new this week is still drawing fresh voices; the untagged ones have been settled for a while and added nobody in the last 14 days.
GOLD BULLISH (45 for, 4 against) + new this week · ENERGY BULLISH (27 for, 1 against) · INDUSTRIALS BULLISH (15 for, 0 against) · META BULLISH (12 for, 2 against) · GOOGL BULLISH (11 for, 2 against) · SILVER BULLISH (12 for, 1 against) · AMZN BULLISH (10 for, 0 against) · COPPER BULLISH (8 for, 2 against)
The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.
| Speaker | Theme | Was | Now | Held prior view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rosenberg | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2025-06-09) | BEARISH (2026-08-21) | 3,349d |
| Ray Dalio | BITCOIN | BULLISH (2025-01-28) | BEARISH (2026-07-30) | 1,733d |
| Lacy Hunt | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2026-04-13) | BEARISH (2026-07-28) | 1,040d |
| Jeremy Grantham | USTS | BEARISH (2023-09-06) | BULLISH (2026-06-25) | 1,023d |
| Lyn Alden | USTS | BULLISH (2025-11-18) | BEARISH (2026-08-09) | 985d |
| Terry Smith | ULVR | BULLISH (2024-04-10) | BEARISH (2026-07-27) | 838d |
| Cathie Wood | SPX | BEARISH (2024-09-05) | BULLISH (2026-08-10) | 704d |
| Lobo Tiggre | GOLD | BULLISH (2025-06-04) | BEARISH (2026-08-05) | 701d |
Single calls, not a crowd measurement — each row is ONE speaker’s specific-ticker call, featured because that speaker’s prior 90d record is positive (mean signed return > 0 across n≥3 matured prior calls). Each pick is fresh; its own result is still maturing (date shown). Not part of any consensus or divergence theme above.
| Speaker (prior 90d) | Call | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Trey Reik +22.5% · 92% hit · n=12 | LONG IAUX | result matures 2026-12-01 i-80 Gold's Nevada asset base, completed recapitalization, and production growth roadmap to 600k oz by early 2030s make it a top holding candidate over a 3–5 year horizon (Wealthion) |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) +20.4% · 67% hit · n=3 | LONG NVDA | result matures 2026-11-25 Nvidia is trading at roughly 17x next-year earnings — a trough multiple relative to the broader market and its own peers — which is anomalous for a company posting 100%+ revenue growth and 75% gross m (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) +20.4% · 67% hit · n=3 | SHORT SNOW | result matures 2026-12-02 Snowflake has rallied roughly 300% in six to seven months with no valuation cushion, and extended parabolic 'line job' moves in this stock have historically been reliable fades (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) +20.4% · 67% hit · n=3 | SHORT IGV | result matures 2026-12-02 Software sector headwinds are not over and IGV is likely to retrace to its level from a year ago at roughly $118 despite any near-term respite from rate relief (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) +20.4% · 67% hit · n=3 | SHORT AVGO | result matures 2026-12-02 Broadcom has broken through its 200-day moving average and an unfilled gap from April at approximately $310 remains open; following the principle that gaps are meant to be filled, AVGO is likely to pu (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| David Sacks +18.9% · 88% hit · n=8 | LONG NVDA | result matures 2026-11-27 AI capex boom is continuing with real legs — Nvidia guided 70% growth vs. 45% expected, is supply-constrained not demand-constrained, and is trading at only 12x earnings despite being the most profita (All-In Podcast) |
| David Sacks +18.9% · 88% hit · n=8 | LONG CRM | result matures 2026-11-27 The SaaS apocalypse narrative was indiscriminate and wrong — core systems of record like CRM won't be ripped out because enterprises need compliance, certainty, and decades of bug-proofed software, an (All-In Podcast) |
| Joel Greenblatt +10.1% · 75% hit · n=8 | LONG VTV | result matures 2026-11-27 After a long multi-year period of underperformance, low-price-book/price-sales value stocks in the Vanguard Value ETF represent a relative bargain versus the broader S&P 500 today. (Joel Greenblatt) |
| Chris Bloomstran +5.2% · 58% hit · n=26 | LONG BRK | result matures 2026-12-01 Berkshire functions as a growing-coupon bond yielding ~8-10% when bought intelligently, with per-share intrinsic value supported by a sum-of-parts analysis pointing to $522/B-share driven by compoundi (Chris Bloomstran) |
| Chris Bloomstran +5.2% · 58% hit · n=26 | LONG DECK | result matures 2026-12-01 Deckers fell from $220 to ~$90 on Vietnam tariff fears but carries no debt, $1.4-1.5B net cash, a share count compressed from 240M to 150M since 2009, trades at 13x earnings, and the Hoka brand is com (Chris Bloomstran) |
| Chris Bloomstran +5.2% · 58% hit · n=26 | LONG OLN | result matures 2026-12-01 Olin (Olan in transcript) offers ~$2.5B of midcycle chlor-alkali cash flow against a ~$6B enterprise value, has compressed its share count 30% (165M to 115M) over five years, and trades in an oligopol (Chris Bloomstran) |
| Chris Bloomstran +5.2% · 58% hit · n=26 | SHORT MSFT | result matures 2026-12-01 Hyperscalers are spending $350-400B annually on AI-related capex against less than $40B of corresponding revenue, a ratio that rhymes with Williams Communications and Global Crossing in 2001; formerly (Chris Bloomstran) |
| Barry Ritholtz +4.7% · 100% hit · n=3 | LONG TIPS | result matures 2026-11-23 Sticky inflation driven by tariffs and war makes inflation-protected bonds attractive as yields have risen materially from near-zero (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) |
| Mohnish Pabrai +4.0% · 60% hit · n=42 | LONG BRK | result matures 2026-11-25 With ~40% of market cap in cash and another 25-30% in high-quality publicly traded businesses, Berkshire is fairly-to-underpriced versus an overvalued S&P 500 and offers free optionality on Greg Abel (Mohnish Pabrai) |
| Mohnish Pabrai +4.0% · 60% hit · n=42 | LONG KSPI | result matures 2026-11-25 Kaspi.kz (the WeChat super-app monopoly of Kazakhstan) generates $2B annual cash flow, trades at 5-7x cash flow with a ~10% dividend yield, is run by a high-integrity owner-operator who holds ~40% and (Mohnish Pabrai) |
Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets — each from ONE speaker. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.
| Speaker | Type | Structure | Horizon | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) | BASKET | LONG BITCOIN (BTC-USD) / LONG MSTR / LONG HOOD | months | Bitcoin and crypto-linked equities are risk assets that should outperform as confidence in the dollar erodes and the devaluation trade accelerates (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Guy Adami (RiskReversal) | BASKET | LONG DE / LONG MOS | months | Global food prices surging create a structural tailwind for agricultural equipment makers and fertilizer producers as the primary beneficiaries of the global agriculture theme (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Bob Haber | HEDGE | LONG GOLD (GLD) / SHORT LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) | multi-year | Replace the 40% bond sleeve in a traditional 60/40 portfolio with hard-asset debasement hedges (gold and Bitcoin) because the 60/40 framework is 100% fiat-denominated and offers no protection against (Forward Guidance) |
| Chris Bloomstran | PAIR | LONG DECK / SHORT NKE | multi-year | Nike at 30x earnings had exhausted its margin of safety while Deckers at 13x earnings with a debt-free balance sheet and accelerating Hoka brand offered the same consumer-footwear exposure at half the (Chris Bloomstran) |
| David Rosenberg | BASKET | LONG URANIUM (URA) / LONG RARE EARTHS / LONG ENERGY (XLE) / LONG BASE METALS | multi-year | A new secular theme of security of supply across energy, food, and critical materials — amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war, Hormuz closure, and El Niño — creates durable pricing power for uranium, ra (David Rosenberg) |
| Chris Galipeau | BASKET | LONG BANKS (KBE) / LONG BANKS (KBE) / LONG GS / LONG C / LONG WFC | months | Large US bank earnings have beaten expectations for six consecutive quarters and Q2 is off to a very good start, signaling durable consumer and credit health that should support bank stock valuations (Wealthion) |
| Raoul Pal | BASKET | LONG BITCOIN (BTC-USD) / LONG ETH / LONG SOL | months | Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have simultaneously printed rare monthly DeMark exhaustion signals plus weekly accumulation patterns, signaling the distribution phase has ended and an upward reversal is (Raoul Pal) |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | RATIO | LONG ETH / LONG BITCOIN (BTC-USD) | multi-year | The ETH/BTC ratio should expand dramatically from 0.03 back to its prior high of 0.08 and potentially to 0.25 or 1.0, as the crypto narrative for the next five years centers on tokenization and agenti (Tom Lee) |
| David Bahnsen | PAIR | LONG ENERGY (XLE) / SHORT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR | multi-year | Energy companies pay sustainable dividends through commodity cycles while consumer discretionary revenue is too fickle to support durable dividend growth, justifying a persistent sector tilt long ener (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) |
| Darius Dale | BASKET | LONG GOLD (GLD) / LONG BITCOIN (BTC-USD) / LONG SPX (SPY) | multi-year | In fourth turnings, fiscal dominance, dollar debasement, and paradigm D (yield curve control + money printing) inflate scarce assets vs. fiat, making gold, Bitcoin, and equities the core portfolio exp (Macro Voices) |
| Julian Emanuel | BASKET | LONG MCD / LONG PEP | months | Negative beta stocks like MCD and PEP that correlate inversely to the S&P day-in/day-out deliver index-like returns while providing diversification away from the AI-trade concentration that now domina (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | RATIO | LONG ETH / SHORT BITCOIN (BTC-USD) | multi-year | ETH flipping Bitcoin's market cap is a plausible multi-year outcome driven by institutional tokenization and AI settlement demand concentrating on Ethereum, implying ETH significantly outperforms BTC (Tom Lee) |
Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.
| Speaker | n₉₀ | Hit | Mean 90d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Long | 3 | 100% | +49.6% |
| Nick Lawson | 5 | 100% | +41.4% |
| Alex Karnal | 3 | 100% | +39.0% |
| Andreas Lechner | 3 | 100% | +38.0% |
| Dennis Hong | 5 | 100% | +35.7% |
| Megan Leonard | 3 | 100% | +35.2% |
| Bill Gurley | 3 | 100% | +30.9% |
| Dan Mcmurtrie | 3 | 100% | +30.7% |
| Dylan Leclair | 3 | 67% | +30.4% |
| Capital Flows | 11 | 73% | +29.4% |
| David Morgan | 4 | 100% | +27.5% |
| Pierre Lassonde | 4 | 100% | +26.9% |
| Dan Dolev | 5 | 60% | +25.7% |
| Lawrence Lepard | 3 | 100% | +24.6% |
| Michael Binger | 4 | 50% | +24.1% |
From the daily brief, session 2026-09-03. The paid edition carries the full feed every market morning — this is one row of it.
One free email a week: who's recommending what, where they agree, and who just changed their mind.
Double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click · we never share your address.