Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.
Four simultaneous single-stock convergence events — Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) each drawing a fourth independent manager within ten days — is the kind of clustering this measurement rarely produces in a single window. Brad Gerstner made the explicit bull case on Nvidia at 14 times next year's fully-taxed GAAP earnings; Tom Russo arrived at Netflix in the same period; Rob Sichin appeared independently across three of the four convergences.
The Nvidia signal carries a wrinkle: the broader consensus tracking formally broke its minimum threshold this week through attrition — voices aging out, no one publicly flipping — meaning the crowd measurement and the individual accumulation pattern are now pointing in opposite directions on the same name. Elsewhere, the dollar opened its first genuine split of the current cycle, with Brent Johnson pressing the bull case and Jeffrey Gundlach ● arraying against him, while new three-manager agreements on copper, semiconductors, and healthcare all crystallized for the first time in the window.
Names link to what each person has said on the record. Bullish and bearish are stated views; a name with ● also said they hold the position this week. Counts below show both.
Independent managers landing on the same stock, same side, within ten days of each other. Names they said themselves — not a sector or an index we mapped them to. The facts, and what followed setups like it; what you do with that is yours.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long NFLX · NetFlix
Tom Russo (MOI Global), Jason Snip (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Simeon Mcmillan (Yet Another Value Podcast), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long AAPL · Apple
Gene Munster (Bloomberg Surveillance), Dan Ives (The Compound), Amy Rascin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long META · Meta Platforms
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance), Rob Vinall (We Study Billionaires), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Ken Gawrelski (Bloomberg Surveillance)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long NVDA · Nvidia
Brad Gerstner (All-In Podcast), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (The Compound), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long GOOGL · Alphabet
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance), Tom Russo (MOI Global), Shawn O Malley (Yet Another Value Podcast)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long SCHW · Charles Schwab
Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Jack Hough (Barron's Roundtable)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long ZIG
Swen Lorenz (Yet Another Value Podcast), Andrew Walker (Yet Another Value Podcast)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long ETH · Ethereum
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Wealthion), Henrik Zeberg (Wealthion)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long PLTR · Palantir Technologies
Griffonomics (Capital Allocators), Dan Ives (The Compound)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long GS · Goldman Sachs Group
Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Jason Snip (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long SNOW · Snowflake
Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Dan Ives (The Compound)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long MU · Micron Technology
Dan Ives (The Compound), Jay Woods (Tom Lee)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went short NVDA · Nvidia
Aswath Damodaran (BiggerPockets Money), Jim Chanos (Trinity Student Managed Fund)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% moved the speakers' way over 20 sessions, median +0.0% in their favor.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long ASML · ASML Holding NV
Alice Han (Prof G Pod (Galloway)), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long AVGO · Broadcom
Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
Themes where at least 3 speakers landed on the same side in the last 14 days, with no more than one voice against. This is the week’s news — where agreement formed or hardened. A theme tagged standing 90d was already near-unanimous before this week, so the fresh voices are joining a crowded trade rather than starting one.
| Theme | Proxy | Direction | Speakers | Who & where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD standing 90d | GLD | BULLISH | 15 | Brent Johnson (Brent Johnson), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Danielle Dimartino Booth (Danielle DiMartino Booth), David Einhorn (David Einhorn), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), John Love (The Acquirers Podcast), John Rubino (Capital Allocators), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Quinn Thompson (Forward Guidance), Russell Napier (Russell Napier), Trey Reik (Wealthion) |
| ENERGY standing 90d | XLE | BULLISH | 8 | Cathie Wood (Cathie Wood), Dan Suzuki (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Danielle Dimartino Booth (Danielle DiMartino Booth), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Inigo Fraser Jenkins (Hidden Forces), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance), Stefan Hoops (Bloomberg The Close) |
| AAPL | AAPL | BULLISH | 6 (1 dissenter) | Amy Rascin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Dan Ives (The Compound), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Scott Galloway (Prof G Pod (Galloway)) |
| OIL standing 90d | USO | BULLISH | 5 (1 dissenter) | Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Michael Every (Macro Voices), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| NFLX standing 90d | NFLX | BULLISH | 4 | Jason Snip (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Simeon Mcmillan (Yet Another Value Podcast), Tom Russo (Tom Russo) |
| SILVER standing 90d | SLV | BULLISH | 4 | Brent Johnson (Brent Johnson), Chris Whalen (Julia La Roche Show), John Rubino (Capital Allocators), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion) |
| META standing 90d | META | BULLISH | 4 (1 dissenter) | Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Ken Gawrelski (Bloomberg Surveillance), Rob Vinall (We Study Billionaires), Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | BULLISH | 4 (1 dissenter) | Harley Bassman (Macro Voices), Jeffrey Sherman (Bloomberg The Close), Priya Misra (Bloomberg The Close), Rick Rieder (CNBC Halftime Committee) |
| GOOGL standing 90d | GOOGL | BULLISH | 3 | Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance), Shawn O Malley (Yet Another Value Podcast), Tom Russo (Tom Russo) |
| VOL standing 90d | VIXY | BULLISH | 3 | Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Dean Curnutt (Forward Guidance), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices) |
| EM_EQUITIES | EEM | BULLISH | 3 | David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Russell Napier (Russell Napier) |
| SEMIS | SMH | BULLISH | 3 | Brad Gerstner (All-In Podcast), Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Stephen Parker (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| SMALL_CAPS | IWM | BEARISH | 3 | Gargi Chaudhuri (Bloomberg Surveillance), Josh Schafer (Barron's Roundtable), Mark Cooper (The Acquirers Podcast) |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | BULLISH | 3 | Emily Roland (Bloomberg Open Interest), Gargi Chaudhuri (Bloomberg Surveillance), Savita Subramanian (Bloomberg The Close) |
| COPPER | CPER | BULLISH | 3 (1 dissenter) | John Love (The Acquirers Podcast), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices) |
Every name above has a receipt — the interview, the date, the quote. Those ride in The Brief, the daily edition.
Themes with ≥3 speakers on each side. The split itself is the signal — the fault line between camps often reveals more than the count does.
USTS (IEF) — 12 LONG vs 9 SHORT
LONG: Bob Doll (Bloomberg Surveillance), Chris Harvey Cibc (Bloomberg Surveillance), David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Edward Al Hussainy (Bloomberg Surveillance), Henrik Zeberg (Wealthion), Jeffrey Sherman (Bloomberg The Close), Jim Paulsen (Excess Returns), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Kara Murphy (Bloomberg Open Interest), Lisa Shalett (Bloomberg Surveillance), Matt Hornbach Morgan Stanley (Bloomberg Surveillance), Vishal Khanduja (Bloomberg Surveillance)
SHORT: Dan Suzuki (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Greg Peters (Bloomberg Surveillance), Inigo Fraser Jenkins (Hidden Forces), Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Neil Dutta (Bloomberg The Close), Robert Sockin (Bloomberg Surveillance), Russell Napier (Russell Napier), Subadra Rajappa (Bloomberg Surveillance)
SPX (SPY) — 8 LONG vs 9 SHORT
LONG: Anastasia Amoroso (Bloomberg The Close), Bob Doll (Bloomberg Surveillance), Ed Yardeni (Bloomberg The Close), Joe Terranova (Virtus) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Julian Emanuel (Bloomberg The Close), Lisa Shalett (Bloomberg Surveillance), Sherry Paul (Bloomberg The Close), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Tom Lee)
SHORT: Chris Harvey Cibc (Bloomberg Surveillance), Dean Curnutt (Forward Guidance), Howard Marks (Howard Marks), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Jim Paulsen (Excess Returns), Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Neil Dutta (Bloomberg The Close), Ohsung Kwon (Bloomberg Surveillance), Savita Subramanian (Bloomberg The Close)
LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) — 6 LONG vs 6 SHORT
LONG: Julian Emanuel (Bloomberg The Close), Nimrit Kang (Bloomberg The Close), Priya Misra (Bloomberg The Close), Raoul Pal (Raoul Pal), Rick Rieder (CNBC Halftime Committee), Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades)
SHORT: Jeffrey Gundlach (Jeffrey Gundlach), Jeffrey Sherman (Bloomberg The Close), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Nate Geraci (Bloomberg ETF IQ), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance), Richard Bernstein Janus Henderson (Bloomberg Surveillance)
USD (UUP) — 6 LONG vs 4 SHORT
LONG: Alice Han (Prof G Pod (Galloway)), Brent Johnson (Brent Johnson), Daragh Maher (Bloomberg Surveillance), Michael Ball (Bloomberg Open Interest), Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) (Macro Voices), Quinn Thompson (Forward Guidance)
SHORT: David Rosenberg (David Rosenberg), Jeffrey Gundlach (Julia La Roche Show), Raoul Pal (Raoul Pal), Stefan Hoops (Bloomberg The Close)
The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.
| Theme | Split | Leans | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USTS | 33–29 positioned 2–0 | BULLISH | Bob Doll, Kara Murphy, Lisa Shalett, Edward Al Hussainy +29 | Subadra Rajappa, Inigo Fraser Jenkins, Greg Peters, Robert Sockin +25 |
| SPX | 30–27 positioned 1–2 | BULLISH | Bob Doll, Lisa Shalett, Anastasia Amoroso, Joe Terranova (Virtus) +26 | Ohsung Kwon, Mohnish Pabrai, Howard Marks, Savita Subramanian +23 |
| LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | 17–32 positioned 2–0 | BEARISH | Raoul Pal, Rob Sichin, Julian Emanuel, Rick Rieder +13 | Luke Gromen, Peter Tchir, Jeffrey Sherman, Jeffrey Gundlach +28 |
| USD | 11–15 positioned 1–1 | BEARISH | Michael Ball, Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices), Daragh Maher, Brent Johnson +7 | Raoul Pal, Stefan Hoops, Jeffrey Gundlach, David Rosenberg +11 |
| BIG_TECH | 13–11 positioned 0–1 | BULLISH | Raoul Pal, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Ben Carlson, Savita Subramanian +9 | Aswath Damodaran, David Einhorn, Henrik Zeberg, Scott Chronert +7 |
| NVDA | 23–10 positioned 2–0 | BULLISH | Josh Brown (Ritholtz), Glen Kacher, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Brad Gerstner +19 | Jim Chanos, Aswath Damodaran, Chris Whalen, Ed Zitron +6 |
Where the crowd already stands, measured over the full 90 days — not this week’s news. A theme tagged + new this week is still drawing fresh voices; the untagged ones have been settled for a while and added nobody in the last 14 days.
GOLD BULLISH (54 for, 13 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · ENERGY BULLISH (33 for, 3 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · INDUSTRIALS BULLISH (17 for, 2 positioned, 1 against) · META BULLISH (15 for, 2 positioned, 2 against) + new this week · OIL BULLISH (13 for, 1 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · GOOGL BULLISH (13 for, 1 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · SILVER BULLISH (15 for, 2 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · NFLX BULLISH (12 for, 1 positioned, 0 against) + new this week
The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.
| Speaker | Theme | Was | Now | Held prior view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoul Pal | USD | BULLISH (2022-05-02) | BEARISH (2026-09-25) | 3,674d |
| David Rosenberg | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2026-06-19) | BEARISH (2026-08-21) | 3,349d |
| Harley Bassman | MORTGAGE_REITS | BULLISH (2020-07-04) | BEARISH (2026-09-17) | 2,266d |
| Harley Bassman | USTS | BEARISH (2021-05-28) | BULLISH (2026-09-17) | 1,938d |
| Ray Dalio | BITCOIN | BULLISH (2025-01-28) | BEARISH (2026-07-30) | 1,733d |
| Joe Terranova (Virtus) | SPX | BEARISH (2023-08-10) | BULLISH (2026-09-22) | 1,139d |
| Lacy Hunt | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2026-04-13) | BEARISH (2026-07-28) | 1,040d |
| Lyn Alden | USTS | BULLISH (2025-11-18) | BEARISH (2026-08-09) | 985d |
A single manager arguing for a single stock — not a crowd, and not part of any convergence above. The most specific pitches of the week, each with the reason they gave.
| Stock | Who | Their case |
|---|---|---|
| KRMN Long Karman | Griffonomics no record yet (Capital Allocators) | Karman Holdings is the sole-source provider of unbypassable high-temperature composites and ablative components for the Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor, meaning every Congressional authorization for Pat |
| MAMA Long Mama's Creations | David Polansky And Tim Delaney no record yet (Sunday's Idea Brunch) | CEO Adam Michaels has deep operating pedigree (Mondelez, Booz/PepsiCo) and is executing a shelf-space rollout at Walmart, BJ's, and Kroger while the Crown I Enterprises acquisition adds incremental EB |
| HEIO Long | Tom Russo 90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo) | Heineken Holding shares trade at a 20% discount to the publicly traded Heineken NV ordinary shares despite essentially identical economic exposure — far wider than the historical ~5% spread — offering |
| GM Long General Motors | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | GM is widely misclassified as an auto company, but body-on-frame trucks represent ~40% of units and generate ~60% of revenue and virtually 100% of profits, protected by a 25% tariff absent from foreig |
| ZIG Long | Andrew Walker 90d +16.7% · 54% hit · n=13 (Yet Another Value Podcast) | The VCP aligning seven executives with up to £69M in share-based compensation contingent on the stock reaching 521p is a uniquely powerful catalyst absent in almost all UK companies, while the stock t |
| ZIG Long | Swen Lorenz no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast) | ZIGUP trades below 4x EBITDA and is underlevered, while a 7-executive Value Creation Plan paying up to £69M in shares above 521p by April 2028 creates powerful alignment that the board has so far squa |
| MA Long Mastercard | Tom Russo 90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo) | Mastercard deliberately suppresses reported margins — EBIT barely moved from 51.9% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 despite explosive volume growth — reinvesting what should be windfall profits into its globa |
| NVDA Long Nvidia | Brad Gerstner 90d +9.2% · 50% hit · n=34 (All-In Podcast) | Nvidia trades at only 14x next year's fully-taxed GAAP earnings — well below its historical average multiple — while semiconductors capture hyperscaler AI capex nearly dollar-for-dollar as free cash f |
| DHI Long D.R. Horton | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | D.R. Horton trades at ~12x earnings vs. NVR's 16x despite being the largest, most efficient homebuilder, having transformed from a land-heavy real estate model (ROE ~10%) to an asset-light manufacturi |
| LEN Long Lennar | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | Lennar's 2025 pricing misstep is temporary; normalized 2027 EPS of ~$19.75 at a conservative 16x multiple implies ~$315 vs. ~$127 today, underpinned by 10% annual community growth, asset-light land mo |
| TSM Long Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | TSMC manufactures chips for Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom simultaneously, creating a near-monopoly position that wins regardless of which AI chip architecture prevails, while capital investment constraint |
| MSFT Long Microsoft | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Microsoft is the world's largest cybersecurity company and AI's proliferation structurally forces every enterprise to increase cybersecurity spend, while Azure's AI repositioning and gaming rationaliz |
| DCRE Long | Jeffrey Gundlach 90d +0.6% · 44% hit · n=154 (Julia La Roche Show) | High-quality top-of-capital-structure commercial real estate with only 2-year duration yields ~6%, offering a substantial spread over T-bills while carrying minimal rate sensitivity — better dry-powde |
| SCHW Long Charles Schwab | Chris Whalen 90d -5.7% · 41% hit · n=51 (Julia La Roche Show) | Schwab keeps growing and carries minimal credit risk relative to the broader bank complex, making it one of the more durable plays in a sector under stress from rising deposit costs and a weak bond po |
| AVGO Long Broadcom | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Broadcom's multi-year custom chip work on Google's TPU has earned them new design-win opportunities with OpenAI and other major AI hyperscalers, making them a diversified beneficiary of the AI infrast |
| AMZN Long Amazon.Com | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | AWS is Amazon's most important business by profit and AI is an 'incredible opportunity' for cloud infrastructure, yet the market still primarily thinks of Amazon as an e-commerce company, creating a v |
| MAIN Long Main Street Capital | Mark Skousen no record yet (Wealthion) | Main Street Capital is the only stock paying both monthly and quarterly dividends at 7% yield, invests in pre-IPO private companies with a 99% non-default record, and has beaten the market since incep |
| AMD Long Advanced Micro Devices | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | AMD gains from both the GPU market (rising challenger to Nvidia in AI training) and the CPU market for servers, giving it a unique dual advantage as agentic AI drives the next leg of compute demand |
| DCMT Long | Jeffrey Gundlach 90d +0.6% · 44% hit · n=154 (Julia La Roche Show) | Commodity prices at new highs driven by oil above $100, depleted global strategic reserves, and CPI re-accelerating above 4%; rules-based monthly rebalancing limits single-commodity concentration |
| NVDA Long Nvidia | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Nvidia holds ~85% market share in AI accelerator GPUs and the market is underestimating their capacity to continue innovating as the industry shifts toward inference |
| ERF Long | Tom Russo 90d -0.6% · 55% hit · n=11 (Tom Russo) | Eurofins Scientific (captioned as 'Euroin Scientific' — a family-controlled testing and certification company) fits the core reinvestment template: the founding family patriarch directs operating prof |
| HAPI Long | David Van Adelsberg no record yet (Bloomberg ETF IQ) | Intrinsic employee motivation factors — trust, purpose, and sense of appreciation — are measurable across a 20-year dataset and have been independently validated by JP Morgan as strictly dominating al |
| NTDOY Short | Simeon Mcmillan no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast) | Switch 2 attach rate came in well below Switch 1 even after Nintendo gave away Mario Kart in the bundle, Nintendo Switch Online accounts are flat for years, a mid-cycle price increase signals memory c |
| FFF Long | Michael Monaghan no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Founder-led companies outperform the S&P by ~4% annually (3X edge over 30 years, 11,000 stocks) because founders supply long-horizon vision, execution, and grit that board-hired CEOs optimising for th |
Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets — each from ONE speaker. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.
| Speaker | Type | Structure | Horizon | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Tchir | BASKET | LONG BP / LONG SHEL / LONG TTE | months | European oil majors are irrationally cheap because the energy transition cannot function without them and the market will eventually recognize the world needs traditional energy production (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Drew Pettit | PAIR | LONG BIG_TECH (QQQ) / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Rising rates hurt small caps via downward earnings revisions driven by diesel and inflation costs, while big tech revisions keep going higher through the early 2030s, creating a durable divergence unt (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Raoul Pal | BASKET | LONG ETH / LONG SOL / LONG SUI | multi-year | Layer 1 blockchains with economic density will capture the agentic economy's coordination layer for value, identity, and microtransactions — AI agents need fast, cheap blockchains to operate at scale, (Raoul Pal) |
| Inigo Fraser Jenkins | PAIR | LONG EQUITIES / SHORT USTS (IEF) | multi-year | The 30-year negative stock-bond correlation was anomalous; its reversal to positive since 2022 is a return to 200-year historical norms driven by inflation shocks from climate, deglobalization, and de (Hidden Forces) |
| Ted Mortonson | PAIR | LONG AI_INFRA / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Higher rates are essentially irrelevant for hyperscalers earning 20-30% returns on AI capex but are a genuine constraint for mid/small cap tech companies that lack the balance sheet, leverage, and fre (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) | SPREAD | LONG USO calls / SHORT USO calls | months | Oil volatility index is at the low end of its recent range while geopolitical disruption risk (Middle East pipelines, Russian refinery strikes) remains elevated, making a defined-risk bull call spread (Macro Voices) |
| Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices) | SPREAD | LONG USO calls / SHORT USO calls | months | Geopolitical risk remains elevated while the oil volatility index has retreated toward range lows, creating a cheap, defined-risk vehicle to capture a move toward $120 crude by January 2027 via a bull (Macro Voices) |
| Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) | SPREAD | LONG DRAM puts / SHORT DRAM puts / LONG DRAM puts | weeks | Bearish on DRAM ETF via put butterfly isolating a reversion to levels from 8 trading days prior, with memory prices near a peak per Raspberry Pi commentary and island reversal confirming the top (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) |
| Paul Sankey | PAIR | SHORT OIL (USO) / LONG DIESEL / CRACK SPREADS / REFINED PRODUCTS | multi-year | Chinese demand retreat above $100 plus Saudi supply returning will pressure crude near-term, but a structural global shortage of diesel—US refineries at record 98% utilization with inventories at all- (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Martin Horne | PAIR | SHORT USTS (IEF) / LONG INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT (LQD) | multi-year | Developed-market governments are spending with no political will to cut deficits anywhere, structurally pressuring sovereign long-end bonds, while corporate balance sheets have held up and short-durat (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Mike Pyle | HEDGE | LONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT USTS (IEF) | multi-year | AI capex supercycle drives durable earnings and productivity growth that keeps US equities well-bid, but the same supply-side bottlenecks and competition for capital that fuel AI growth push long-end (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Scott Galloway | PAIR | SHORT AI_INFRA / LONG BIG_TECH (QQQ) | multi-year | AI data center buildout financed by $1.7T in debt (800B+ off-balance-sheet in shell companies) mirrors the 1999 tech bubble structure where overleveraged speculative builders fail first while well-cap (Prof G Pod (Galloway)) |
Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.
| Speaker | n₉₀ | Hit | Mean 90d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Long | 3 | 100% | +49.6% |
| Peter Mantas | 3 | 100% | +43.5% |
| Nick Lawson | 5 | 100% | +41.4% |
| Alex Karnal | 3 | 100% | +39.0% |
| Andreas Lechner | 3 | 100% | +38.0% |
| Dennis Hong | 5 | 100% | +35.7% |
| Megan Leonard | 3 | 100% | +35.2% |
| Lou Basenese | 4 | 100% | +31.1% |
| Bill Gurley | 3 | 100% | +30.9% |
| Dan Mcmurtrie | 3 | 100% | +30.7% |
| Dylan Leclair | 3 | 67% | +30.4% |
| Capital Flows | 11 | 73% | +29.4% |
| Jason Katz | 5 | 80% | +28.9% |
| David Morgan | 4 | 100% | +27.5% |
| Pierre Lassonde | 4 | 100% | +26.9% |
From the daily brief, session 2026-09-24. The paid edition carries the full feed every market morning — this is one row of it.
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