Research only. Aggregates public statements from canonical investors (podcasts, interviews, 13F filings). Not a trading signal, not a recommendation.
Micron Technology (MU) is the week's cleanest new signal: Jay Woods, Hendi Susanto, and Erica Brescia independently staked out long positions within ten days of one another, a convergence that arrives alongside a separately measured five-voice consensus, both thresholds breached on Micron for the first time in this cycle. The more consequential development sits on a name last week's edition already tracked — Nvidia (NVDA) — where Glen Kacher's arrival as the fourth independent long now leaves the stock carrying a completed bull convergence alongside the only live two-voice short signal on any single name this cycle, with Aswath Damodaran and Jim Chanos staking out opposing positions that did not exist in last week's data.
Bitcoin entered formal three-voice consensus territory for the first time this window, a development that lands in a fortnight that also produced a new industrials consensus, suggesting the risk appetite visible in the semiconductor bets is extending beyond equities. Pershing Square's Bill Ackman added a fifth institutional voice to the Meta Platforms (META) convergence via 13F disclosure, extending a stack that already included Rob Vinall, Josh Brown, and Ken Gawrelski.
Names link to what each person has said on the record. Bullish and bearish are stated views; a name with ● also said they hold the position this week. Counts below show both.
Independent managers landing on the same stock, same side, within ten days of each other. Names they said themselves — not a sector or an index we mapped them to. The facts, and what followed setups like it; what you do with that is yours.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long META · Meta Platforms
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance), Rob Vinall (We Study Billionaires), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Ken Gawrelski (Bloomberg Surveillance)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 4th manager in 10 days went long NVDA · Nvidia
Brad Gerstner (All-In Podcast), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (The Compound), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long GOOGL · Alphabet
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital (Bloomberg Surveillance), Tom Russo (MOI Global), Shawn O Malley (Yet Another Value Podcast)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
3 VOICES 3rd manager in 10 days went long MU · Micron Technology
Jay Woods (Tom Lee), Hendi Susanto (Bloomberg The Close), Erica Brescia (Bloomberg The Close)
The last 81 setups like this: 65% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.7%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went short NVDA · Nvidia
Aswath Damodaran (BiggerPockets Money), Jim Chanos (Trinity Student Managed Fund)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% moved the speakers' way over 20 sessions, median +0.0% in their favor.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long ASML · ASML Holding NV
Alice Han (Prof G Pod (Galloway)), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long AVGO · Broadcom
Rob Sichin (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz))
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went short META · Meta Platforms
Dan Nathan (Riskreversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Guy Adami (Riskreversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% moved the speakers' way over 20 sessions, median +0.0% in their favor.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long SCCO · Southern Copper
Mark Skousen (Wealthion), Jim Iuorio (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
SECOND VOICE 2nd manager in 10 days went long NKE · Nike
David Swartz (Bloomberg The Close), Joe Favorito (Bloomberg The Close)
The last 237 second-voice setups: 51% higher 20 sessions later, median +0.0%.
Themes where at least 3 speakers landed on the same side in the last 14 days, with no more than one voice against. This is the week’s news — where agreement formed or hardened. A theme tagged standing 90d was already near-unanimous before this week, so the fresh voices are joining a crowded trade rather than starting one.
| Theme | Proxy | Direction | Speakers | Who & where |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY standing 90d | XLE | BULLISH | 9 | Arnold Van Den Berg (MOI Global), Cathie Wood (Cathie Wood), Danielle Dimartino Booth (Danielle DiMartino Booth), Inigo Fraser Jenkins (Hidden Forces), Jan Vesely (Bill Ackman), Lauren Hochfelder (Bloomberg The Close), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance), Stefan Hoops (Bloomberg The Close), Tenzin Seldon (Bill Ackman) |
| GOLD standing 90d | GLD | BULLISH | 6 | Arnold Van Den Berg (MOI Global), Brent Johnson (Brent Johnson), Grant Williams (Grant Williams Podcast), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Nicky Shiels (Bloomberg Open Interest) |
| MU | MU | BULLISH | 5 | Angelo Zino (Bloomberg Surveillance), Erica Brescia (Bloomberg The Close), Hendi Susanto (Bloomberg The Close), Jake Silverman (Bloomberg Open Interest), Jay Woods (Tom Lee) |
| META standing 90d | META | BULLISH | 5 (1 dissenter) | Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Ken Gawrelski (Bloomberg Surveillance), Pershing Square / Ackman (13F) (Bill Ackman), Rob Vinall (We Study Billionaires), Sarah Kunst (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| AAPL standing 90d | AAPL | BULLISH | 3 | Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Scott Galloway (Prof G Pod (Galloway)) |
| HEALTHCARE standing 90d | XLV | BULLISH | 3 | Ann Miletti (Bloomberg The Close), Gargi Chaudhuri (Bloomberg Surveillance), Marc Pinto (Bloomberg The Close) |
| SEMIS | SMH | BULLISH | 3 | Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Sitara Sundar (Bloomberg Open Interest), Stephen Parker (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| SMALL_CAPS | IWM | BEARISH | 3 | Gargi Chaudhuri (Bloomberg Surveillance), Kate Moore (Bloomberg Open Interest), Tracie Mcmillion (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| OIL standing 90d | USO | BULLISH | 3 | Guy Adami (RiskReversal) (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade), Michael Every (Macro Voices), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| INDUSTRIALS standing 90d | XLI | BULLISH | 3 | Ann Miletti (Bloomberg The Close), Lauren Hochfelder (Bloomberg The Close), Malcolm Ethridge (CIC Wealth) (CNBC Halftime Committee) |
| BITCOIN | BTC-USD | BULLISH | 3 (1 dissenter) | James Safert (Bloomberg Open Interest), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Raoul Pal (Raoul Pal) |
| NVDA | NVDA | BULLISH | 3 (1 dissenter) | Glen Kacher (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)), Josh Brown (Ritholtz) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Steve Eisman (Michael Burry) |
Every name above has a receipt — the interview, the date, the quote. Those ride in The Prime, the members’ daily edition.
Themes with ≥3 speakers on each side. The split itself is the signal — the fault line between camps often reveals more than the count does.
SPX (SPY) — 11 LONG vs 4 SHORT
LONG: Ajay Rajadhyaksha (Bloomberg Surveillance), Anastasia Amoroso (Bloomberg The Close), Bob Doll (Bloomberg Surveillance), Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Joe Terranova (Virtus) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Larry Adam (Fox Claman Countdown), Lisa Shalett (Bloomberg Surveillance), Lori Calvasina (Bloomberg Open Interest), Olaolu Aganga (Bloomberg The Close), Seema Shah (Bloomberg Surveillance), Tom Lee (Fundstrat) (Tom Lee)
SHORT: Howard Marks (Howard Marks), Kristina Hooper (Bloomberg Open Interest), Mohnish Pabrai (Mohnish Pabrai), Ohsung Kwon (Bloomberg Surveillance)
USTS (IEF) — 9 LONG vs 5 SHORT
LONG: Bob Doll (Bloomberg Surveillance), Edward Al Hussainy (Bloomberg Surveillance), Jeffrey Sherman (Bloomberg The Close), Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) (CNBC Halftime Committee), Jonathan Wellum (Wealthion), Kara Murphy (Bloomberg Open Interest), Katerina Simonetti (Bloomberg The Close), Lisa Shalett (Bloomberg Surveillance), Vishal Khanduja (Bloomberg Surveillance)
SHORT: Greg Peters (Bloomberg Surveillance), Inigo Fraser Jenkins (Hidden Forces), Robert Sockin (Bloomberg Surveillance), Subadra Rajappa (Bloomberg Surveillance), Tom Becker (Bloomberg Surveillance)
LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) — 5 LONG vs 9 SHORT
LONG: Bob Michele (Bloomberg Surveillance), Gabriela Santos (Bloomberg Open Interest), Julian Emanuel (Bloomberg Surveillance), Priya Misra (Bloomberg Surveillance), Raoul Pal (Raoul Pal)
SHORT: Cem Karsan (Cem Karsan), Grant Williams (Grant Williams Podcast), Jeffrey Sherman (Bloomberg The Close), Luke Gromen (Luke Gromen), Olaolu Aganga (Bloomberg The Close), Pershing Square / Ackman (13F) (Bill Ackman), Peter Tchir (Bloomberg Surveillance), Tim Adams (Bloomberg The Close), Wall St Macro (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
The weekly view shows what changed; this shows where the crowd stands. Every speaker's most recent statement in the last 90 days, one stance per person. The fault lines here run deeper than any single week.
| Theme | Split | Leans | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 36–28 positioned 2–2 | BULLISH | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity), Seema Shah, Larry Adam, Joe Terranova (Virtus) +32 | Kristina Hooper, Ohsung Kwon, Mohnish Pabrai, Howard Marks +24 |
| USTS | 33–28 positioned 2–0 | BULLISH | Jim Lebenthal (Cerity), Bob Doll, Kara Murphy, Katerina Simonetti +29 | Tom Becker, Subadra Rajappa, Inigo Fraser Jenkins, Greg Peters +24 |
| LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | 19–38 positioned 2–0 | BEARISH | Priya Misra, Julian Emanuel, Gabriela Santos, Bob Michele +15 | Pershing Square / Ackman (13F), Tim Adams, Cem Karsan, Grant Williams +34 |
| USD | 12–15 positioned 0–1 | BEARISH | Michael Ball, Mark Mccormick, Patrick Ceresna (Macro Voices), Daragh Maher +8 | Raoul Pal, Stefan Hoops, Jeffrey Gundlach, David Rosenberg +11 |
| BIG_TECH | 14–12 positioned 0–1 | BULLISH | Raoul Pal, Stuart Kaiser, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), Ben Carlson +10 | Aswath Damodaran, Jim Iuorio, David Einhorn, Henrik Zeberg +8 |
| NVDA | 24–10 positioned 3–0 | BULLISH | Steve Eisman, Josh Brown (Ritholtz), Glen Kacher, Tom Lee (Fundstrat) +20 | Jim Chanos, Aswath Damodaran, Chris Whalen, Ed Zitron +6 |
Where the crowd already stands, measured over the full 90 days — not this week’s news. A theme tagged + new this week is still drawing fresh voices; the untagged ones have been settled for a while and added nobody in the last 14 days.
GOLD BULLISH (56 for, 14 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · ENERGY BULLISH (37 for, 3 positioned, 0 against) + new this week · INDUSTRIALS BULLISH (19 for, 2 positioned, 1 against) + new this week · OIL BULLISH (14 for, 1 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · META BULLISH (13 for, 2 positioned, 3 against) + new this week · SILVER BULLISH (15 for, 2 positioned, 0 against) · AAPL BULLISH (11 for, 1 positioned, 2 against) + new this week · COMMODITIES_BROAD BULLISH (11 for, 0 against)
The hardest signal to fake: a public reversal. Direction changes that landed in the last 90 days, with how long the prior view stood.
| Speaker | Theme | Was | Now | Held prior view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoul Pal | USD | BULLISH (2022-05-02) | BEARISH (2026-09-25) | 3,674d |
| David Rosenberg | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2026-06-19) | BEARISH (2026-08-21) | 3,349d |
| Harley Bassman | MORTGAGE_REITS | BULLISH (2020-07-04) | BEARISH (2026-09-17) | 2,266d |
| Harley Bassman | USTS | BEARISH (2021-05-28) | BULLISH (2026-09-17) | 1,938d |
| Ray Dalio | BITCOIN | BULLISH (2025-01-28) | BEARISH (2026-07-30) | 1,733d |
| Joe Terranova (Virtus) | SPX | BEARISH (2023-08-10) | BULLISH (2026-09-22) | 1,139d |
| Lacy Hunt | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2026-04-13) | BEARISH (2026-07-28) | 1,040d |
| Pershing Square / Ackman (13F) | LONG_DUR_TREASURIES | BULLISH (2024-01-13) | BEARISH (2026-09-30) | 991d |
A single manager arguing for a single stock — not a crowd, and not part of any convergence above. The most specific pitches of the week, each with the reason they gave.
| Stock | Who | Their case |
|---|---|---|
| TPB Long Turning Point Brands | George Baxter no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast) | TPB is positioned as the durable third player in the rapidly growing (~22% annually) $6.5B nicotine pouch market via its FRE and ALP brands (now 48% of revenue), with a near-term step-change in unit e |
| MAMA Long Mama's Creations | David Polansky And Tim Delaney no record yet (Sunday's Idea Brunch) | CEO Adam Michaels has deep operating pedigree (Mondelez, Booz/PepsiCo) and is executing a shelf-space rollout at Walmart, BJ's, and Kroger while the Crown I Enterprises acquisition adds incremental EB |
| MSGS Long Madison Square Garden Sports | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | MSG Sports' $10B enterprise value lets you buy the Knicks and Rangers combined at a deep discount to recent comparable sales — Lakers forced sale at $12B, Islanders minority stake implying $3B+ for a |
| GM Long General Motors | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | GM is widely misclassified as an auto company, but body-on-frame trucks represent ~40% of units and generate ~60% of revenue and virtually 100% of profits, protected by a 25% tariff absent from foreig |
| DHI Long D.R. Horton | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | D.R. Horton trades at ~12x earnings vs. NVR's 16x despite being the largest, most efficient homebuilder, having transformed from a land-heavy real estate model (ROE ~10%) to an asset-light manufacturi |
| LEN Long Lennar | Ed Wachenheim no record yet (MOI Global) | Lennar's 2025 pricing misstep is temporary; normalized 2027 EPS of ~$19.75 at a conservative 16x multiple implies ~$315 vs. ~$127 today, underpinned by 10% annual community growth, asset-light land mo |
| TSM Long Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | TSMC manufactures chips for Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom simultaneously, creating a near-monopoly position that wins regardless of which AI chip architecture prevails, while capital investment constraint |
| NKE Long Nike | David Swartz no record yet (Bloomberg The Close) | Nike is excessively punished at a 25-year price low; the multi-year inventory and product-innovation problems are known and ongoing, not new, and Elliot Hill's turnaround path via product leadership a |
| MSFT Long Microsoft | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Microsoft is the world's largest cybersecurity company and AI's proliferation structurally forces every enterprise to increase cybersecurity spend, while Azure's AI repositioning and gaming rationaliz |
| BATRK Long | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | Atlanta Braves Holdings trades at ~$50 but applying the same valuation metrics as the recent Angels sale implies an $88 fair value, and rational capital allocator John Malone or his heirs will eventua |
| AVGO Long Broadcom | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | Broadcom's multi-year custom chip work on Google's TPU has earned them new design-win opportunities with OpenAI and other major AI hyperscalers, making them a diversified beneficiary of the AI infrast |
| AMZN Long Amazon.Com | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | AWS is Amazon's most important business by profit and AI is an 'incredible opportunity' for cloud infrastructure, yet the market still primarily thinks of Amazon as an e-commerce company, creating a v |
| AMD Long Advanced Micro Devices | Glen Kacher no record yet (The Big Picture (Ritholtz)) | AMD gains from both the GPU market (rising challenger to Nvidia in AI training) and the CPU market for servers, giving it a unique dual advantage as agentic AI drives the next leg of compute demand |
| DRAM Short Roundhill Memory ETF | Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) 90d +9.3% · 83% hit · n=6 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) | UK chipmaker Raspberry Pi flagged memory prices nearing a peak and the Round Hill Memory ETF shows a clear island reversal topping pattern, suggesting a 10%+ pullback over the next two weeks |
| MDB Long MongoDB | Dev Ittycheria no record yet (Bloomberg The Close) | Agentic AI workloads structurally require fresh live data from operational data stores and elastic platforms that handle highly burstable, unpredictable traffic — MongoDB's core competency — making it |
| MKL Long Markel Group | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | Markel trades at only 1.2x book with a new underwriting head driving improving combined ratios, Janna Partners activist pressure will force more aggressive buybacks, and the company is not family-cont |
| QSR Long Restaurant Brands International | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | Burger King North America is now same-store-sales positive after years of being the problem child under Patrick Doyle's proven turnaround playbook, the stock is cheap with a 3-3.5% yield, and refranch |
| ORCL Short Oracle | Dan Nathan (RiskReversal) 90d +9.3% · 83% hit · n=6 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) | Oracle is invoking force majeure on Stargate data center obligations due to power access delays and permitting moratoriums, its CDS hit a new high at 223bps validating credit stress the equity has bee |
| APP Long Applovin | Adam Foroughi no record yet (All-In Podcast) | AppLovin's proprietary deep learning recommendation models create a defensible moat in a $50B mobile gaming ad ecosystem with 84% EBITDA margins, now expanding into e-commerce discovery advertising wh |
| UBER Long Uber Technologies | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | Uber trades at a below-market multiple despite 20-30% annual growth and ~$10B of projected free cash flow, because autonomous vehicle disruption fears are overblown — peak-hour demand economics and re |
| GOOGL Long Alphabet | Shawn O Malley no record yet (Yet Another Value Podcast) | Alphabet's search business proved resilient against AI disruption while Google Cloud inflected to profitability and is now growing at 63-82% YoY with a $500B backlog, making the original fear-driven d |
| BKNG Long Booking | Jonathan Boyar no record yet (The Acquirers Podcast) | Booking's competitive moat in boutique/small hotel inventory is not replicable by AI agents like Muse, which cannot handle cancellations, EU regulations, or hotel relationships, making the AI-driven s |
| VLO Long Valero Energy | Guy Adami (RiskReversal) 90d +16.6% · 80% hit · n=5 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade) | Any diesel export ban would be short-lived because storage tanks would hit capacity and force production cuts, meaning refiners like Valero are net winners from crack-spread dynamics with U.S. refinin |
| ORCL Short Oracle | Luke Kawa no record yet (Odd Lots) | Oracle carries significantly more leverage than hyperscaler peers and lacks their FCF generation, making it the most exposed name as AI CapEx shifts from FCF-funded to debt-funded and credit condition |
Multi-leg views — pairs, hedges, spreads, baskets — each from ONE speaker. A relationship or hedged trade rather than a naked direction, so these are tracked separately from the consensus tallies above. Research only.
| Speaker | Type | Structure | Horizon | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Eisman | BASKET | LONG MU / LONG ANET / LONG CSCO / LONG ETN | multi-year | AI picks-and-shovels infrastructure providers (memory, networking, electrification) capture hyperscaler capex without the concentration risk or cash-flow destruction facing the hyperscalers themselves (Michael Burry) |
| Luke Kawa | PAIR | LONG RSP / SHORT EUROPEAN EQUAL WEIGHT EQUITIES | months | US nominal growth running ~6% should strongly favor US equal weight over European equal weight, yet the relationship is inexplicably inverted—European equal weight is closer to ATH than US equal weigh (Odd Lots) |
| Larry Adam | PAIR | LONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Prefer large caps over small caps because large-cap earnings growth is stronger, revisions are up ~15% vs down over 10% for small caps, and small caps have >50% of debt tied to short-term rates making (Fox Claman Countdown) |
| Tracie Mcmillion | PAIR | SHORT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR / LONG INDUSTRIALS (XLI) | months | Tech valuations have become stretched after being the only sector with positive September returns, while industrials offer better valuations and secular earnings durability into 2027 — rotate from tec (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Tracie Mcmillion | PAIR | LONG USTS (IEF) / SHORT LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) | months | 10-year and 30-year yields have further to rise due to persistent inflation and heavy issuance, so fixed income duration risk should be minimized by favoring the short end of the curve over long-durat (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
| Kate Moore | PAIR | SHORT LONG_DUR_TREASURIES (TLT) / LONG GOLD (GLD) | multi-year | Substituting long-duration bonds with gold because real yields, fiscal spending, and growth expectations are driving yields structurally higher with no near-term reversal, making gold a better portfol (Bloomberg Open Interest) |
| Jenny Harrington (Gilman Hill) | BASKET | LONG CLX / LONG CMCSA / LONG CAG / LONG NEE / LONG KMB | multi-year | Real economy consumer staples and utilities (CLX, CMCSA, CAG, NEE, KMB) have been indiscriminately crushed since the August rate spike while underlying demand is intact, creating a buying opportunity (CNBC Halftime Committee) |
| Max Kettner | PAIR | LONG BIG_TECH (QQQ) / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Russell 2000's ~45% floating-rate debt load makes it the most front-end rate-sensitive equity index, while Nasdaq is supported by record earnings upgrades; as long as the front end stays elevated, thi (Bloomberg Open Interest) |
| Pershing Square / Ackman (13F) | BASKET | LONG META / LONG SPGI / LONG ICE | multi-year | A basket of 'super durable growth' businesses trading at undemanding multiples in a market narrowly fixated on AI/tech, owned in PSUS for 5-year return expectations rather than 90-day momentum. (Bill Ackman) |
| Michael Gates | PAIR | SHORT SEMIS (SMH) / LONG HEALTHCARE (XLV) | months | Semiconductor sector has ballooned to 18% of S&P from 13% and volatility has picked up, warranting a trim of AI momentum/semi exposure while adding AI adopters outside info tech such as healthcare and (Bloomberg The Close) |
| Gabriela Santos | PAIR | LONG QUALITY_STOCKS (QUAL) / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Small-cap outperformance was speculative AI beta rather than real-economy strength and fizzles as rates rise and unprofitable names underperform, while large-cap high-quality stocks offer durable earn (Bloomberg Open Interest) |
| Ajay Rajadhyaksha | PAIR | LONG SPX (SPY) / SHORT SMALL_CAPS (IWM) | months | Large-cap S&P is dominated by acyclical AI capex spending that ignores rate levels, while small caps are directly rate-sensitive and will be disproportionately hurt by continued Fed hikes (Bloomberg Surveillance) |
Top speakers by 90d mean signed return (n≥3). Long/short-aware. Refreshed each memo run — corpus expands, numbers move.
| Speaker | n₉₀ | Hit | Mean 90d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Long | 3 | 100% | +49.6% |
| Peter Mantas | 3 | 100% | +43.5% |
| Nick Lawson | 5 | 100% | +41.4% |
| Alex Karnal | 3 | 100% | +39.0% |
| Andreas Lechner | 3 | 100% | +38.0% |
| Dennis Hong | 5 | 100% | +35.7% |
| Megan Leonard | 3 | 100% | +35.2% |
| Lou Basenese | 4 | 100% | +31.1% |
| Bill Gurley | 3 | 100% | +30.9% |
| Dan Mcmurtrie | 3 | 100% | +30.7% |
| Dylan Leclair | 3 | 67% | +30.4% |
| Capital Flows | 11 | 73% | +29.4% |
| Jason Katz | 5 | 80% | +28.9% |
| Bill Ford | 3 | 67% | +28.1% |
| David Morgan | 4 | 100% | +27.5% |
From the daily brief, session 2026-10-01. The paid edition carries the full feed every market morning — this is one row of it.
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